Bottom line: Rallies for Renren and 500.com stock on positive news are likely to be short lived due to both companies’ limited prospects, while 55Tuan’s IPO is likely to see more delays and its shares are unlikely to debut next week
500.com prepares to go back online
As we head into the long weekend for the Easter and Tomb Sweeping holidays, a string of developments are providing a bit of cheer to shareholders of embattled social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) and online lottery ticket seller 500.com (NYSE: WBAI). Renren’s good news comes in a newly announced Dutch auction for its stock, a variation of traditional share buybacks. At 500.com, the good news comes in the form of chatter that Beijing will soon roll out new policies that pave the way for resumption of the online lottery ticket sales that are the company’s main business.
Bottom line: A round of April Fool’s Day pranks by China’s Internet companies marks a nice break from their usual cut-throat tactics, while the soaring valuation for a newly created taxi app leader looks more typical for the sector.
Internet firms get into April Fool’s spirit
It’s a relatively quiet news day as we head into April, so I thought I’d take a break from all the latest crackdowns and controversies by looking at some of the clever pranks played by China’s top Internet names on April Fool’s Day. At the same time, one company that’s in no fooling mood is a new taxi app giant that’s being formed with a merger of the 2 top players, and could soon receive an impressive $8.75 billion valuation after a new investment.
These 2 particular headlines don’t really have much in common, since one is largely playful and meant to be fun while the other involves the far more serious business of determining a company’s value. The April Fool’s stories are a nice break from the usual competition and wars of words that are standard fare on China’s Internet. By comparison, bidding up valuations to inflated levels like we’re now seeing with the pending merger of DidiDache and Kuaidi Dache has become standard fare on China’s Internet, as investors bet big on future growth in the market. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: New moves against e-commerce and online video firms are extensions of a broader crackdown on rogue Internet practices, which will slow short-term growth at some companies but ultimately create a healthier business environment.
E-Commerce in China
Crackdowns widen on video, e-commerce
It seems like I write about the latest Internet crackdown far too often these days, as Beijing focuses on a wide range of industries where it wants to clean up what it sees as unhealthy business practices. Another 2 such crackdowns are in the headlines as we head into spring, one in the scandal-wracked e-commerce space and the other in online video. Both crackdowns actually began earlier, and these latest moves just show the regulators don’t feel that their job is finished yet.
Of course it’s a slight oversimplification to say this broader series of crackdowns is coming from a single source, since the commerce regulator has been the main driver behind the e-commerce crackdown and the broadcasting and publishing regulator is behind the video clean-up. But those 2 concurrent campaigns, along with other similar ones, probably underscore a recent resolve by central leaders in Beijing to clean up a Chinese business landscape that’s often riddled with corrupt and illegal practices. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Dangdang’s growth is likely to slow rapidly over the next 2 years as it gets marginalized by larger rivals, putting pressure on its owners to sell the company before it sinks back into the red.
Dangdang posts strong profit growth
Investors were breathing a big sigh of relief after reading the latest quarterly results from Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), as an ongoing turnaround at the former e-commerce leader boosted both its top and bottom lines. The news erased concerns that sparked a sell-off just a couple of weeks earlier, after the company unexpectedly announced a last-minute delay in the release of earnings report for unspecified scheduling reasons.
While the Dangdang fears were ultimately unfounded, the same hasn’t been true for former online video high-flyer Youku Tudou (NYSE: YOKU). In that instance, Youku Tudou played a similar scheduling trick for the release of its earnings report around the same time, and ultimately served up gloomy results. It also disclosed it was being probed by the US securities regulator for aggressive accounting that may have been illegal. (previous post) Read Full Post…
Bottom line: 55Tuan’s IPO plan has a less than 50 percent chance of succeeding as a deadline looms, while Jiayuan.com is likely to de-list later this year after its investors accept a so-so buyout offer.
Clock ticks down on 55Tuan IPO plan
Time is quickly running out for a planned IPO by group buying site 55Tuan, as a deadline approaches that will nullify the company’s application earlier this year for a New York listing. Meantime, time is also running out for another Chinese Internet company, Jiayuan.com (Nasdaq: DATE), as a private equity firm launches a bid to privatize the neglected online dating site.
Both 55Tuan and Jiayuan represent a group of decidedly second-tier Chinese Internet companies that probably would have been acquired long ago in a more mature western market. But in the less developed Chinese market, the pair have managed to stay independent. The second-tier status of such firms often leads investors to question their longer term viability, dampening enthusiasm for their stocks when they list overseas. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China’s regulators should work closely with innovators like Alibaba and SMG to minimize the risk from their new financial products that bring small lenders and borrowers together.
Alibaba, SMG partner on film finance
E-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) made its latest advance in the financial realm last week, announcing a major tie-up with Shanghai’s leading broadcaster to promote film finance over its online platform based on the crowd-funding concept. The move extends Alibaba’s recent forays into both entertainment and finance, and could provide a major boost for smaller Chinese movie makers who often lack access to project funding.
But the reality is that movie making is a highly risky business for even the most experienced companies, and smaller productions are famous for losing money. That means many of the projects that get financed through the new Alibaba tie-up with Shanghai Media Group (SMG) may ultimately see investors lose some or all their money if and when poorly conceived projects fail to find an audience. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A rebellion by a major hospital group against Baidu could reflect growing discontent towards the search engine among Chinese advertisers, which could force it to lower prices and make its business practices more transparent.
Medical group takes on Baidu
Local media are swarming to a story that has seen a major hospital association advise its members to yank their advertisements from Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), cutting off a top cash cow for China’s leading search engine. The Putian Healthcare Industry Chamber of Commerce is saying the grievances that led to its action are related to the high prices that Baidu charges for its services. But Baidu has weighed in with its own view, calling the move retaliatory for its own refusal to accept ads containing false and exaggerated claims from many Putian members. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba’s clean-up of its Taobao marketplace is likely to last for the next year, and could see growth in trading volume on the platform fall by about half of current levels to the 15-20 percent range.
Alibaba evicts 26 sellers from Taobao
Two months after a scandal erupted over high piracy rates on one of its main websites, e-commerce leader Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) has moved to address the problem with the expulsion of 26 merchants from its popular Taobao C2C platform. Alibaba’s description of the campaign shows the company is still avoiding the word “piracy” in its discussion of the clean-up, reflecting the sensitivity of the situation. But the larger question is just how many merchants will ultimately be expelled from Taobao, and what that will mean for Alibaba’s top and bottom lines. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba, Tencent and Ping An’s online insurance joint venture should easily find backers for its first major fund-raising, and could even exceed its $8 billion valuation target due to strong demand.
Zhong An targets $1 bln in new funds
This year’s list of major private funding raising by high-tech firms continues, with word that an online insurance joint venture involving 2 of China’s biggest Internet names is seeking to raise a hefty $1 billion in its first funding round. This particular venture certainly has a strong pedigree, as it’s backed by Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700), China’s 2 leading Internet companies with a combined market value of nearly $400 billion. The pair are joined in the venture by Ping An (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), China’s second largest insurer and also one of the most aggressive players in its space. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Chinese Internet stocks are likely to see a soft landing after a correction period in the first half of the year, with leaders and high-growth second tier players likely to experience a rebound in the second half.
China Internet stocks headed for soft landing
A new scorecard is casting a worrisome spotlight on the bumper crop of Chinese Internet firms that listed last year, pointing out that more than half are now trading below their IPO prices. The sagging prices continue a trend that I pointed out in my IPO scorecard at the end of last year. That trend has seen shares of many New York-listed Internet firms come back to their offering levels or lower as investors pocketed profits from strong post-IPO rises. (previous post) But rather than label this a reason for worry, I would argue instead this broader wave represents a rationalization of the market that will ultimately see the best-performing names rewarded and the money losers languish. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: New smart car initiatives from Tencent, LeTV and Baidu are all likely to struggle, with Baidu most likely to be first to drop out of this race to copy Internet giant Google.
LeTV car to debut at Shanghai Auto Show
China is quickly living up to its copycat reputation in the smart car space, with the latest word that Tencent (HKEx: 700) will enter the business in a tie-up with Taiwanese contract manufacturing giant Foxconn (HKEx: 2038). That pair are following Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) into the area, but they certainly aren’t the first Chinese to mimic the world’s largest Internet company.
That distinction would probably go to Chinese Internet search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which last year announced its own smart car initiative that was also back in the headlines this week as CEO Robin Li discussed the plan. Yet another similar initiative is also in the headlines today, as online video sensation LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104) discussed its own plans to show off its first smart car at the Shanghai auto show next month. Read Full Post…
