Bottom line: Legend Group’s IPO should get a solid reception, and Alibaba’s separately listed drug and film units should also perform well over the next few years as the Hong Kong stock exchange gains popularity for China tech firms.
Legend makes first public filing for HK IPO
A pair of stories today are casting a spotlight on Hong Kong and its future potential as a hotbed for Chinese tech listings. One of those involves e-commerce leader Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), which wanted to make its record-breaking IPO in Hong Kong last year but ultimately chose New York due to ownership issues. The second involves Legend Holdings, parent of PC giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992), and one of China’s oldest and most respected private tech companies.
The first news bit has Alibaba injecting the pharmacy business from its popular Tmall online shopping mall into its Hong Kong-listed Alibaba Health (HKEx: 241) unit. The second has Legend Holdings making its first public filing for a long-planned listing in Hong Kong that should happen later this year, including some of the first official financials we’ve seen for the IPO. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: More Chinese online video companies could soon follow LeTV onto the global stage as their home market soars, providing competition in smaller markets to locally entrenched players like Hong Kong’s PCCW and TVB.
LeTV marches into HK
China is generally considered a technology follower rather than a leader, but new data are showing an exciting trend that could see it finally emerge as a global innovator in Internet-connected video services. The factors behind this movement are uniquely Chinese, and stem from a huge pent-up demand in China for quality video services. Such services are finally starting to come from a growing range of private companies led by names like LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104), Xiaomi and Youku Tudou (Nasdaq: YOKU), which are far more innovative and nimble than the stodgy state-run firms that dominate the traditional broadcasting sector.
Those newer companies are showing early signs of trying to go global, using Hong Kong and other Southeast Asian markets as their stepping stones onto the world stage. Such markets are relatively small and rely heavily on western content, making them particularly fertile ground for some of these Chinese firms that can create and distribute content more suitable for Asian audiences. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Shares of Tencent and Alibaba are overvalued and will stagnate or fall for the rest of the year, while a group trying to buy out Sungy Mobile may have to raise its offer but should succeed in privatizing the company.
Froth builds on Tencent stock
It seems I was partly wrong when I previously said that e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) was quite expensive following its record-breaking IPO last year, and that its value would gradually sink to a level comparable with rival Tencent (HKEx: 700). In this case I wasn’t wrong in thinking the 2 companies should be comparably valued. Instead, I should have focused on the potential for a rally in Tencent shares, which have risen sharply to approach Alibaba’s level since the start of the year.
While those 2 companies look comfortably situated in the stratosphere of Internet valuations, the same can’t be said for mobile game operator Sungy Mobile (Nasdaq: GOMO), which has just announced its receipt of a management-led buyout offer. If the attempt succeeds, it would mean Sungy’s life as a publicly traded company could end after less than 2 years, the briefest for a listed Chinese company that I’ve ever seen. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Shares of Sina and its Weibo unit could come under pressure this week and for the next few months, as the regulator pushes for a clean up of its core news sites amid a broader Internet clean-up campaign.
Regulator clamps down on Sina news sites
A year-old Internet clean-up by Beijing is coming full circle to where it first began, with word that regulators have criticized and warned online stalwart Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) for failing to adequately censor its core web portal business. China Internet followers may recall that this prolonged clean-up began almost exactly a year ago when Sina’s video license was suspended after pornographic content was discovered on its literature and photo-sharing sites. (previous post) That case wasn’t too alarming since video is quite peripheral to Sina’s business. By comparison, this latest case looks a bit more worrisome, since it involves the portal news business that accounts for a big portion of Sina’s core advertising revenue. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Momo’s shares could take a hit as Beijing pressures it to clean up its reputation as a “one night stand” app, while a group trying to buy out Jiayuan could raise its bid slightly in response to investor pressure.
Momo warned in Beijing clean-up
A pair of stories involving online matchmaking services are in the headlines as we begin the new week, with Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE) and Momo (Nasdaq: MOMO) facing resistance on 2 very different fronts. The first story has a Jiayuan investor crying foul over a recent buy-out offer that it says vastly undervalues the online service that engages in traditional match-making. The second story has Momo coming under fire from puritanical Beijing regulators for its more casual form of dating, which encourages short-term, one-night-stand relationships, similar to the popular US service called Tinder. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The move by Yahoo’s former China R&D chief to a major local Internet firm reflects growing work opportunities at Chinese companies, and waning attraction of China as an R&D center for big multinationals.
Former Yahoo R&D exec joins JD.com
A new move by a leading R&D executive is spotlighting a pair of major trends in China’s high-tech space, led by rapidly falling expectations for the market by big multinationals. The actual move has seen the former head of Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO) China R&D center take a new job at JD.com (Nasdaq: JD), China’s second largest e-commerce company, just weeks after Yahoo closed one of its last remaining Chinese operations. That move also highlights the growing attractiveness of big domestic companies for top R&D executives, who used to eschew such homegrown firms. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Baidu may never recover the medical advertising business it lost during a recent spat with a major hospital group, putting pressure on its stock as its revenue growth takes a hit over the next few quarters.
Baidu stock takes beating in hospital tiff
A spat between leading search engine Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and one of its largest advertisers is taking a toll on the company’s stock, and also casting an illuminating spotlight on the nature of the advertising market in China. If the latest reports are correct, the boycott by members of the Putian Healthcare Industry Chamber of Commerce could be costing Baidu millions of dollars in lost ad revenue each day, underscoring the importance of such advertisers.
The tussle also reflects the strange nature of China’s advertising market, where ads making inflated claims are quite common. Many outsiders may also find it strange that hospitals are such an important source of advertising revenue in China, since such ads are far less common in more developed markets. The bottom line is that exaggerated ads and strange advertisers are the norm in China, but such revenue sources for companies like Baidu could shrink as the market starts to mature and more closely resemble the west. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: An IPO plan for Jupai could raise up to $100 million and perform relatively well if it can sell itself as an asset manager well positioned to profit from China’s real estate downturn.
E-House grooms Jupai for IPO
The year’s first IPO for a Chinese company in New York could finally be in the pipeline, with word that an asset management firm controlled by real estate services firm E-House (NYSE: EJ) has made its first filing for a listing. The plan comes in a broader announcement by E-House, which has transferred its asset management business to a third company called Jupai, which in turn has submitted a draft registration to the US securities regulator in preparation for a proposed IPO.
If the plan goes forward, it could become the first listing for a Chinese company in New York this year, stealing the distinction from another IPO plan by group buying site 55Tuan. IPO watchers will know that 55Tuan filed its listing plan back in January, but missed several deadlines for unexplained reasons without formally saying it is scrapping the plan. (previous post) Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Products like Qufenqi.com that encourage buying on credit are leading a new wave of online financial products, but could lead to irresponsible borrowing and defaults without proper consumer education.
Qufenqi soars on credit buying
China’s recent financial services boom took a new twist last week, when a start-up e-commerce firm specializing in credit-based purchasing won big new funding and a lofty valuation to support its expansion. Kuaile Shidai’s rapid growth extends a wave of new financial products hitting the market, mostly backed by online companies that can quickly establish a national presence and aren’t subject to the same heavy restrictions as traditional firms.
But while most new firms so far have focused on investment services, Kuaile Shidai is attracting customers by selling goods like smartphones and cameras on credit, and then taking repayment in installments. Such a business model is quite common in the west, and lies at the foundation of the credit card system. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba’s shares will continue to sag through the rest of the year on any news about the company, whether good or bad, as investors exit the stock to lock in big gains.
Alibaba shares continue downward trend
My earlier theory that shares of e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) will continue to slump on any news, good or bad, is playing out as the shares re-approach a post-IPO low on a mixed series of headlines about the company. At this point the stock is simply on a downward track, as investors of all ilk who made big profits from the company’s meteoric rise sell their shares to lock in some gains. The pressure looks set to continue for the rest of the year, following the end of a post-IPO lock-up period last month that will allow Alibaba’s earliest investors to join the selling frenzy. (previous post) Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Shanda Games is likely to close its privatization by next month, as group founder Chen Tianqiao finishes dismantling his entertainment empire to try a possible new career in private equity.
De-listing looms for Shanda Games
The long and tortured privatization Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) could finally be near, with word that a group bidding for the faded online gaming giant has finalized its funding for a $1.9 billion buyout. If and when this buyout finally closes, it will mark the end of a privatization bid that began more than a year ago. That would easily make it the most drawn out such buyout among about a dozen major Chinese companies that have left New York over the last 2 years due to lack of interest from investors. Read Full Post…
