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Softbank latest financial, market & economic news and analysis by Doug Young, former Reuters Chief editor and expert about Chinese companies

Lenovo Sister Firm Looks to Japan, Taobao Quits “围城”日本:弘毅想冲进去 淘宝想撤出来

Japan’s foreign minister was in China yesterday on an official visit, so I thought I’d start the week with 2 items on Chinese companies in the notoriously difficult Japanese market, including an interesting move into the chip sector by a sister company of PC giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and a hasty retreat by e-commerce giant Alibaba. Let’s start with the more intriguing of the items, which is seeing Hony Capital, the high-profile technology investment arm of Lenovo parent Legend Group, pairing with US private equity giant TPG Capital to make a planned bid for bankrupt memory chipmaker Elpida (Tokyo: 6665), according to a Japanese media report. (English article) If they made a bid, the pair would join 2 other suitors, Korea’s Hynix Semiconductor (Seoul: 000660) and US-based Micron (NYSE: MU) in pursuing the Japanese company that controls 12 percent of the global DRAM market. Frankly speaking, Hynix and Micron look like much better suitors for Elpida, as both are competitors that could consolidate the Japanese company into their own operations for an industry that has been in desperate need of consolidation for the last 5 or 6 years. But the Hony-TPG pairing does include one interesting element, namely the Lenovo connection. Lenovo itself has been trying to break into Japan for years now, following its 2005 purchase of IBM’s PC assets that included sales and distribution networks in Japan. More recently Lenovo has taken over the PC assets of NEC (Tokyo: 6701), and has discussed setting up a manufacturing base in Japan. (previous post) A successful bid for Elpida could theoretically provide Lenovo with a strong DRAM supply for its Japan-based business. Still, I would be wary of such a purchase since Lenovo has little or no experience in running a DRAM operation, and it’s unclear what kind of savings it could achieve by combining its Japanese PC business with Elpida’s money-losing memory business. Moving on, the other Japanese news bit has seen Alibaba’s Taobao service officially shutter its Japanese shopping channel that was operating on a platform run by Yahoo Japan (Tokyo: 4689). (Chinese article) Alibaba made a relatively low-key move into Japan several years ago, seeking to take advantage of ties to one of its earliest investors, Japan’s Softbank (Japan: 9984), which is also the main investor in Yahoo Japan along with Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) itself. Clearly the market hasn’t proven as easy to penetrate as Alibaba had hoped, and the media report even says that sales on the Taobao Japan channel were below the company’s targets. This withdrawal doesn’t surprise me at all, as Chinese firms of all types have had a difficult time in the Japanese market, which has become famous for its impenetrability by foreign firms. The other big Chinese web firm trying to crack the market is search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which has spent millions of dollars over the last 3 years on a Japanese search portal with little results to show for that investment. This Taobao withdrawal from the market was completely predictable, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a similar retreat by Baidu within the next 12 months.

Bottom line: A bid by a Lenovo sister company for bankrupt Japanese chipmaker Elpida is likely to fail, while Baidu is likely to follow a recent Alibaba retreat from Japan in the next 12 months.

Related postings 相关文章:

Lenovo Considers Japan Production 联想向日本转移制造业务为明智公关手段

NEC China Cellphones: New Lenovo Tie-Up? NEC计划重回中国手机市场 或与联想联姻

Baidu Dreams of Brazil 百度试水巴西

China Mobile Steps Up 4G Drive 中移动4G网络建设提速 年底或推商用试点

There’s quite a bit of telecoms news coming out this week from the city of Barcelona in Spain, where China’s telcos and equipment makers are all showing off their latest wares at the world’s biggest annual telecoms show. Most of it looks like the usual display of new gizmos and gadgets, but the item that caught my eye was a relatively detailed update on China Mobile’s (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) 4G plans, which indicate that both the company and, perhaps more importantly also the government, are moving aggressively forward to build a commercial network based on a homegrown Chinese standard called TD-LTE. Equally significant is who was discussing the plans, as the comments came from a relatively youthful Li Yue, a fast rising star who recently took over as president of China Mobile’s state-run parent, rather than the company’s longtime aging Chairman Wang Jianzhou, who is getting set to retire. Li said China Mobile will move ahead with plans to expand its large-scale trials of TD-LTE to 9 cities later this year, adding Qingdao, Tianjin and most importantly Beijing, to its current trails in 6 major cities that began last year. (English article) He went on to say that the fast-growing trial network could even be ready for commercial service in the cities of Shenzhen and Hangzhou by the end of this year. Li said the handful of telcos building commercial TD-LTE networks outside China, most notably Softbank (Tokyo: 9984) in Japan and Bharti Airtel (Mumbai: BHARTI) in India, are slowing down their plans until China Mobile can bring more momentum to the standard by working with networking equipment and handset makers to develop more products and clean up technological problems. Those remarks imply that not only China Mobile, but also the government, are working hard to speed up deployment of a full-scale commercial TD-LTE network in China, as Beijing is especially keen to see a China-developed standard compete globally alongside other standards developed in the US and Europe. In one other major development in that direction, Li disclosed that Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), one of the world’s biggest chipmakers for both cellphones and telecoms equipment, has agreed to develop chips based on the standard, providing more momentum for its development. On top of all those developments, I also like the fact that Li is now speaking for the company on this issue, as he represents a younger, more aggressive generation of new leadership that China Mobile needs to breathe life back into its stagnating top and bottom lines. All these latest signs say that despite some recent delays, China Mobile’s 4G plans are moving ahead at a fast and steady pace, helped by important government support, with some first-stage commercial service potentially starting to roll out in a few cities as soon as the end of this year.

Bottom line: New comments from a top China Mobile executive indicate its 4G plans are accelerating with government support, with limited commercial service possible as soon as year end.

Related postings 相关文章:

China Telcos In New Drives at Home, Abroad 中国三大电信运营商海内外发力

China Mobile: Improvement Ahead Under New Leaders 新领导有望助中国移动复苏

China Mobile Tries 4G Back Door in Shenzhen 中国移动试图绕过监管机构于深圳秘密规划4G网络

Alibaba Tests Waters for Yahoo Buyout – Again 阿里巴巴再试水竞购雅虎股权

Alibaba chief Jack Ma is clearly not someone to take “no” for an answer, as evidenced by his company’s latest effort to assemble a group to buy out its controlling shareholder, Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO). There’s not enough detail in a media report (English article) to make too much sense of this latest attempt, after Ma was rebuffed during the summer when he suggested a similar buyout.  But all things considered, this new attempt could stand a much better chance of success. First the facts. The media report on the bid is coming out of New York, meaning the sources are probably private equity firms that are working with Alibaba on the deal, giving the story a bit more credibility. Given the history of Ma’s previous attempt at a buyout (previous post), I suspect that what’s happening now is that this latest group will propose buying out Yahoo and then immediately selling off its core US-based portal operations to a prearranged buyer. Ma’s Alibaba-led group would then be left with Yahoo’s two main Asian assets, namely the 40 percent it owns of Alibaba and its stake in Yahoo Japan (Tokyo: 4689), a joint venture with Japan’s Softbank (Tokyo: 9984). Not surprisingly, Softbank is also a member of the group that Alibaba is leading for this latest buyout deal, according to the report. I have to say that this deal, if this is indeed what’s happening, stands a much better chance of success than Ma’s earlier effort, as it would keep Yahoo’s core operations under US ownership and management while selling its 2 big Asian assets back to their respective local partners. In fact, Reuters reported earlier this week that another major private equity group, Thomas H. Lee Partners, was hoping to do a leveraged buyout of Yahoo’s US business (English article), meaning that bid would fit nicely with a split-up scenario that Alibaba and Softbank may be trying to engineer. According to the latest report, Alibaba would only formally launch its latest offer if Yahoo is interested in such a deal, meaning it won’t consider a hostile bid. But if a break-up is indeed part of Alibaba’s plan that would allow Yahoo’s core operation to remain in US hands, and if the price is right, this latest bid could stand a much better chance of success.

Bottom line: A new buyout attempt of Yahoo by an Alibaba-led group could stand a good chance of success if the aim is a break-up of Yahoo.

Related postings 相关文章:

Alibaba Sharpens Focus in Yahoo Buy-Out, Taobao Mall 阿里巴巴回购雅虎所持股权有望

Alibaba: The Little Genie That Roared?

Alibaba’s Incredible Shrinking Profit Growth 阿里巴巴盈利呈加速放缓趋势

 

Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

It’s only 3 months since Alibaba split its consumer-oriented Taobao Website into two units, and already it’s starting to hype the more promising of the  two, the B2C-focused Taobao Mall, in what’s no doubt the run-up to an IPO that could come as soon as next year. At the same time, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) is continuing with its battle to win back credibility following a scandal earlier this year, in a clear divergence of strategy for these two sister companies that are both part of Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba Group. Let’s look at Taobao Mall first. The 3-month-old company has held what was probably its first stand-alone press conference, in which it boasted it expects its sales volume to double to 200 billion yuan next year, or about $31 billion, and where it announced a new strategy where it will open its site to other online retailers like Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian in addition to traditional retail names like Dell. (Nasdaq: DELL) (English article) President Daniel Zhang was a big cagier about Taobao Mall’s profits, only saying the company’s profit margin has reached that of other Chinese Internet companies. But clearly the company is feeling pressure to go to market sooner rather than later to return some investment dollars to companies like Japan’s Softbank, who have been waiting 7 years now for a return on their money. I’d look for this IPO to happen as soon as Taobao Mall can show some meaningful profits, probably sometime next year. Meantime, sister company Alibaba.com continues to be on the defensive, following a scandal earlier this year where bogus retailers were cheating buyers on the company’s B2B site. (previous post) Chinese media are reporting Alibaba.com has embarked on a campaign to verify the identities of all of its sellers, clearly in a bid to try and restore confidence to buyers whose numbers have plateaued and even started to fall since the scandal began earlier this year. (Chinese article) Look for this PR campaign to continue and for Alibaba.com to post more tepid results for the next year until it regains the trust of the online B2B buying community.

Bottom line: Taobao Mall’s admission of online retailers to its site is hype for an IPO as early as next year, while sister site Alibaba.com’s will need at least a year to rebuild its credibility following a recent scandal.

距离阿里巴巴将淘宝商城从淘宝网拆分仅仅过去3个月,聚焦于B2C的淘宝商城比淘宝网更有发展潜力,并且至早明年就可以准备上市。与此同时,阿里巴巴B2B(HKEx: 1688)作为淘宝网和淘宝商城的姐妹公司,仍在努力消除年初中国供应商丑闻带来的负面影响。昨 天,三个月大的淘宝商城举行了首场独立身份的新闻发布会,预期2012年交易额目标为2000亿元(合313亿美元),为今年交易额的2倍。会上还宣布淘 宝商城除了像以往那样和传统品牌如戴尔(Nasdaq: DELL)合作外还会与网店结盟,比如沃尔玛(NYSE: WMT)投资的一号店。淘宝商城总裁张勇对其利润守口如瓶,仅仅说与目前的中国互联网公司持平。但是显然公司面临早日上市以回报投资者的压力,软银已经为 投资回报等待了7年之久。我认为一旦淘宝宣布其利润达到某个关键数值就会上市,时间可能在明年。与此同时,阿里巴巴B2B年初发生的信任危机导致临阵换将,这一事件的影响至今仍未消除。中国媒体报道,阿里巴巴推出一系列新举措以使入住者重拾信任,但上述公关举措是否能如愿让股票表现回到风波之前的水平,仍不明朗。

一句话:淘宝商城对在线零售商的结盟或许是为了可能在明年达成上市而炒作,与此同时阿里巴巴B2B年内仍要致力于消除中国供应商事件的不利影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

Taobao Mall Takes Hit with Drug Sale Ban 中国规范网络售药 或重创淘宝商城

Alibaba Resignations: Is the Magic Gone?

 

Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

After months of wrangling, Alibaba Group Chairman Jack Ma has finally reached a settlement of his dispute with stakeholders Softbank (Tokyo: 9984) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) over the spin-off of the company’s Alipay electronic payments service, in what looks to be both a PR and monetary victory for Ma himself. (company announcement) It’s hard to say too much without knowing more about the financial structure of Alibaba, but the fact that the company will only get 37.5 percent of any proceeds from a future Alipay IPO, as stipulated in the terms of the agreement, looks like Alibaba — which counts Yahoo and Softbank as its controlling stakeholders — is getting surprisingly little from this investment that it once presumably owned completely. Terms of the deal say the parties expect Alipay to be valued at anywhere from $2 billion to $6 billion by the time an IPO or other “liquidity event” occurs, which means that Alibaba Group will get as little as little as $750 million from this asset by the time it goes public, which one might expect in the next 2-3 years. Despite an official announcement filled with lots of happy quotes from all three parties, including Softbank’s waxing on the importance of trust, this deal seems to hint of more conflict ahead as undoubtedly both Yahoo and Softbank will constantly worry that Jack Ma is trying to take advantage of them again in the years ahead. In this version of events that has just been announced, Jack Ma seems to come out the winner most ways you look at it, taking control of Alipay by only giving a third of the company to his partners, and also looking reasonable to the world after his childish behavior throughout this drawn-out conflict. If I were Yahoo or Softbank, I would try to get out of my Alibaba investment sooner rather than later, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of these companies try to sell their stake in this troubled company by the end of this year.

Bottom line: Jack Ma has won a PR and financial victory in his new Alipay settlement with Yahoo and Softbank, with more stormy relations between these 3 partners likely in the months ahead.

经过数月的争吵,阿里巴巴集团董事长马云终於就其与两大股东软银<9984.T>和雅虎<YHOO.O>就支付宝股权转让事件达成协议,对马云来说,似乎是公关和财富双赢。在对阿里巴巴财务结构所知甚少的情况下,我们很难就此事过多评论,但事实是,根据协议条款,阿里巴巴只能获得支付宝上市收益的37.5%,阿里巴巴似乎从这笔投资中所获甚少。预计支付宝将在未来两三年上市。尽管正式声明中充满了三方的友好表示,但该协议似乎暗示着未来会出现更多冲突,因雅虎和软银无疑都担心,马云未来几年会再次试图占他们的便宜。马云似乎怎麽看都是此次事件的最大赢家:首先,只把三分之一的公司出让给合作夥伴便掌控了支付宝;其次,通过这一旷日持久的纷争,协议的达成对世人也是个合理交待。如果我是雅虎或软银,我会努力尽早撤出对阿里巴巴的投资。如果在今年年底前看到两公司或其中之一试图出售阿里巴巴的股份,我一点也不会感到意外。

一句话:在此次与雅虎、软银就支付宝股权转让的纷争中,马云公关赚钱两不误,而三方未来数月的关系料不会一帆风顺。

Related postings 相关文章:

Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

Alipay Spin-Off: End in Sight for Yahoo? 阿里巴巴与雅虎缘分已尽?

Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束

Taobao Mall Takes Hit with Drug Sale Ban 中国规范网络售药 或重创淘宝商城

Alibaba’s Taobao Mall, the B2C portion of Taobao that was split off into a separate entity under a restructuring last month (previous post) looks set to take a hit, as China moves to clean up its unruly pharmaceuticals industry by banning the sale of drugs online. (English article) The campaign looks very much like similar ones that Beijing has launched from time to time, and in particular resembles a drive a few years back to stop hospitals from making bogus claims through advertisements. That campaign saw traditional and new media companies like Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN) and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) suffer as hospitals and clinics, in search of more revenue as they were freed from state support, had become some of the biggest buyers of advertisements at the time. It’s hard to say how big the impact will be on Taobao from this latest drive to regulate drug sales, but I’m guessing such sales probably comprise a fair share of its transaction volume, probably somewhere in the 5-10 percent range. The loss of commissions from such sales won’t be devastating, but will certainly deal the company a setback, especially as it prepares for in IPO which I expect will come in the next year as Taobao investors, most notably Japan’s Softbank, clamor for some return on their investment. The ban could also have an impact on some other e-commerce sites, though many of the big ones, such as Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) and Vancl, seem to be steering clear of the drug sector and focusing on less controversial products like books and clothing. Still, this latest ban is just the latest reminder that nothing in China is certain, either online or offline, and these kinds of periodic “clean-ups” can hit just about anyone at any time.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s Taobao Mall will take a hit with China’s latest crackdown on online drug sales, taking away some of the company’s momentum as it prepares for an IPO as soon as next year.

中国正对网上售药进行治理,以规范药品行业,阿里巴巴旗下的淘宝商城料将受到影响。这与中国政府以往不时推出的行动很像,尤其是几年前,因为医院和诊所改制,不再得到国家资金支持,为寻找创收渠道,部分医院诊所成为广告商最大客户之一,而当时,政府发起禁止医院打广告夸大药效的行动,让分众传媒(Focus Media)<FMCN.O>和新浪<SINA.O>等媒体公司遭重创。很难说这次规范药品行业销售行动对淘宝的影响有多大,但我猜测,淘宝的交易额将受到一定影响,比例可能在5-10%左右。此类销售的佣金损失不会是毁灭性的,但肯定对淘宝商城不利,尤其是该公司正准备上市。我预计,由於淘宝投资者,尤其是日本软银,急於获取投资回报,公司将在明年上市。这一禁令也可能影响到其他电子商务网站,但当当网<DANG.N>和凡客诚品等许多大型平台正清除售药类别,重点发展图书和服饰等争议较小的产品。但此事提醒我们,在中国没有什麽是确定的,无论是线上还是线下,这些不时进行的“严打行动”可能在任何时间,影响到任何人。

一句话:中国近期严打网络售药,阿里巴巴旗下的淘宝商城或受创,在公司准备进行IPO之际,可能对其造成一定影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

Alibaba, Tencent Join Mobile OS Bandwagon 阿里巴巴和腾讯进军移动操作系统领域

Alibaba, eBay Lovefest Over as eBay Rethinks China 阿里巴巴和eBay的蜜月期结束