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Tag Archives: search

Qihoo Ups Search Target, Attacks Sogou

By newsdoug on November 8, 2013

Online search aspirant Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) is back in the headlines, this time by boosting its targets as it gains ground on market leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). At the same time, the company is also watching its flank, launching a new war of words against a new potential rival from the newly formed combination of Sohu’s (Nasdaq: SOHU) Sogou search engine and Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) Soso. From a tactical standpoint, this kind of attack on current and future rivals probably looks like a smart move. But from a more practical standpoint, these kinds of assaults are unlikely to have any real effect on Qihoo’s search business; instead such acts of aggression give off a signal of slight desperation as Qihoo tries to justify the recent run-up in its share price resulting from hype about its year-old So.com search engine. Read Full Post…

Sohu Puts Sogou Up For Sale

By newsdoug on May 9, 2013

Sohu looks to sell Sogou

The ongoing game of musical chairs in China’s online search space is continuing this week with word that Internet portal Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) wants to sell its Sogou unit, operator of China’s third largest search engine. While many of the previous rumors of consolidation in the search space have looked dubious to me, this one actually looks like it could be credible for a number of reasons I’ll detail shortly. If it’s true, I would also commend Sohu for making a shrewd move by getting out of a crowded market where it has limited resources and expertise compared with other players. Read Full Post…

Bears Chase Baidu After So-So Earnings

By newsdoug on April 26, 2013

Internet search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) can’t seem to do anything right these days, even when it posts quarterly earnings results that look relatively respectable to me. I suspect that the same short-term traders who bid up Baidu’s stock to meteoric heights in the years after its 2005 IPO are now trying to make more money by short selling the company. That’s my best explanation for the 8 percent sell-off in Baidu stock in after-hours trade after it posted its latest quarterly earnings report. If the losses carry into the regular Friday session, Baidu could easily see its market capitalization drop below the $30 billion mark as its stock tests new lows not seen for more than 3 years. Read Full Post…

Latest Google Move: Gearing Up For China Return? 谷歌最新动向：打回中国市场？

By newsdoug on September 14, 2011

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has launched yet another new China initiative, this time opening a group buying directory, in the latest of a series of moves that has the industry buzzing that the global search leader is reconsidering its high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year. In this latest development, domestic media are reporting that Google has officially launched a new site, Shuihui, to help Web surfers navigate the huge field of group buying sites, led by names like Lashou and 55tuan, that have sprung up in the last two years. (English article) The launch follows Google’s brief announcement last week that Beijing has renewed its Internet China Internet license (English article), and comes 3 months after Google reached a settlement with Chinese regulators that allowed it to continue providing its mapping services in China. (previous post) Google is also aggressively promoting its Android cellphone operating system in China as a lower cost alternative to Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone OS. This new spirit of cooperation between Google and Beijing contrasts sharply with the war of words between the two that ended with Google’s high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year over self-censorship issues. The changing tone has sparked rumors that Google is reconsidering its withdrawal from China’s search market, a move that at first seems unlikely but which could actually be possible due to some key changes in the market since last year’s big dispute. The biggest change is Beijing’s growing unease at Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) domination of China’s search market, with around 80 percent share now and no clear challengers in sight. (previous post) The second major change is that Beijing and Google have had some time to think, and both realize they can benefit from each other if they choose to work together rather than fight. Of course, Google will only come back if Beijing makes a major face-saving concession, probably by lifting many of its strict self-censorship rules. But considering recent developments, I would put Google’s chances for a return to China’s search market at 50-50 in the next 12 months.

Bottom line: Google may be considering a return to China’s search market in light of recent warming of its relations with Beijing, with a 50 percent chance of returning in the next 12 months.

谷歌(GOOG.O)再次出击中国市场，这次是团购搜索分类“谷歌时惠”，加之谷歌近来一系列其他举措，业界不禁猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑去年高调退出中国搜索市场的做法。据中国国内媒体报导，谷歌正式推出新服务“谷歌时惠”，帮助网络用户导航纷繁众多的团购网站。在此之前，谷歌还于上周发布简短声明，称中国政府已经更新了谷歌的中国互联网牌照。而在三个月前，谷歌与中国监管机构达成妥协，谷歌可继续在中国提供地图服务。此外，谷歌还在中国积极推广安卓手机操作系统，作为苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone OS的替代选择。谷歌与中国政府之间崭新的合作精神与去年双方围绕自我过滤问题的激烈交锋形成鲜明对比。合作基调渐趋改变，促使业界猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑其退出中国搜索市场做法。最大的变化在于中国对于百度在中国搜索市场的垄断地位益发不安。百度在国内搜索引擎市场的占有率高达80%，对手们远远被甩在了後面。第二个重大变化是中国政府与谷歌有了一些思考的时间，都意识到双方合则两利，斗则两伤。当然，只有在中国政府作出重大让步，比如放开很多自我审查规定之後，谷歌才会回归。但是考虑到近来事态的发展，我认为谷歌今後12个月回归中国搜索市场的机率为50%。

一句话：鉴于近来与中国政府的关系逐渐升温，谷歌可能正在考虑重回中国搜索市场，未来12个月回归机率大约为50%。

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

By newsdoug on August 22, 2011

The central government, unwilling to directly tackle Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) as a monopoly despite its dominant position in the online search market, is instead attacking the company on several smaller fronts in a bid to curtail its influence. In one of two major developments, Chinese media are reporting that the telecoms regulator is preparing new online search regulations that would force all search engines to clearly state which of their results are paid and which are organic. (English article) Baidu currently mixes both types of results together, a practice many consider misleading, and charges advertisers a premium to have their paid results appear alongside organic results — something global leaders Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) stopped doing long ago after public criticism. The influential China Central Television (CCTV), China’s national broadcaster, has been leading the charge on this front, fanning consumer outrage by broadcasting a series of investigative reports on the issue. (English article) In the second development, another industry regulator has called on all major Web sites to stop offering pirated music, in what again looks like a shot aimed at Baidu, whose popular music swapping service is rife with pirated songs. Baidu last month signed its first-ever deal with threel major music labels to provide legal copies of their songs, but added it had no plans to shut down the more popular site offering pirated titles. (previous post) These latest two government campaigns appear to be Beijing’s attempt to create a more level playing field in the lucrative online search market by attacking two of Baidu’s most popular tactics, both of which are ethically questionable. While such moves may help global leaders like Google and Yahoo, which operate in more transparent fashion, they are unlikely to boost domestic search engines like those operated by Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), which probably also use questionable tactics similar to Baidu’s.

Bottom line: The central government appears to be launching a campaign to rein in monopolistic Baidu, but will need to do more to create a more level playing field in online search.

对于百度(BIDU.O)在中国网络搜索市场上一家独大的局面，政府虽不愿直接开刀，但为限制其影响力，似乎已选择在一些小的方面敲打百度了，就以最近两个较大的事件为例来说明问题。其一，据中国媒体报导，电信监管机构正准备出台在线搜索新规，迫使所有搜索引擎明确列出哪些是付费搜索结果、哪些是自然搜索结果。目前百度是把两种结果混在一起，容易造成误解，这种做法因遭非议，早已被谷歌(GOOG.O)与雅虎(YHOO.O)等弃用。中国中央电视台在炮轰百度问题上打起头阵，针对百度相关问题播报了大量的调查性报导，鼓动公众情绪。第二例，另一家行业监管机构要求各大网站停止提供盗版音乐，此举看起来又是针对百度，人气很高的百度音乐搜索服务充斥着盗版歌曲。百度上月与三大唱片公司签署正版音乐使用协议，为用户提供合法音乐内容，但百度补充说无意关闭人气更高的、提供盗版音乐下载的音乐搜索服务。政府近来这两大举措出击百度两种受欢迎的应用，其意似乎在于为在线搜索市场创造更加平等的竞争环境。此类举措可能让操作较为透明的谷歌与雅虎等全球巨头渔翁得利，但国内搜索引擎，如腾讯(0700.HK)与搜狐(SOHU.O)等，恐怕难得到好处。

一句话：政府似乎开始出招修理一家独大的百度，但要想创造网络搜索市场竞争氛围更加公平，政府还要拿出更多行动。

Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

By newsdoug on July 26, 2011

China Internet bellwether Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) has just announced its latest quarterly results, which continue to show a company with strong growth but a worrisome inability to diversify beyond its core online search business that is showing early signs of slowing. First the good news, which has clearly captured investor attention, with Baidu’s revenue up about 80 percent and profits up an even stronger 90 percent in the second quarter, thanks to surging sales for its online search advertising services. (company announcement) Furthermore, Baidu also forecast its third-quarter revenue will continue to grow in the 75-80 percent range to more than $600 million — second in China’s Internet space behind only sector leader Tencent (HKEx: 700). But those strong numbers also hide the less impressive fact that Baidu still derives 100 percent of its revenue from online marketing related to its core search business, after high-profile initiatives in a number of other areas like micro-blogging and e-commerce all ended in disappointing failures. (previous post) What’s more, its volume of online marketing customers only grew by a modest 17 percent in the second quarter, with its big revenue growth coming on the back of a sharp 50 percent jump in spending per customer. Clearly Baidu is finding ways to squeeze more money out of its customers, but that growth is likely to slow down sharply in the next year as advertisers start to reach their comfort limits over spending too much on a single marketing source, no matter how good the results. When that happens, look for Baidu’s top and bottom line growth to slow sharply — most likely in the next year or two — unless it can find some alternate new sources of growth from some of its other business initiatives.

Bottom line: Despite posting stellar Q2 results, Baidu’s top and bottom line growth will slow sharply in the next 1-2 years as its search business starts to mature and advertisers rein in their spending.

中国互联网巨头百度<BIDU.O>刚刚公布季度财报，显示其保持强劲增长势头，但令人担忧的是，百度仍严重依赖其核心的网上搜索业务，而该领域已呈现放缓苗头。首先，我们得说其强劲财报是个好消息，显然也吸引了投资者的关注。得益於在线搜索广告营收大幅增长，百度第二季营收增约80%，获利更跳升约90%。此外，百度预计第三季营收将保持75-80%的增幅，超过6亿美元，若实现该目标则在中国互联网领域仅次于腾讯<0700.HK>。但这些亮丽的数据掩盖了一个事实：百度所有营收都来自与核心搜索业务有关的网络营销，意味着其在微博和电子商务等领域的尝试均遇挫。值得注意的是，今年第一季其网络营销客户总数仅增加了17%，百度营收增长主要源自客户的平均支出跳增50%。显然，百度成功从客户处掏出了更多的钱，但未来一年其增长率可能大幅放缓，因广告客户将开始不愿意在单一营销渠道上投入太多的资金，不管广告效果有多好。到那时候，除非百度能找到其他新的营收和利润增长渠道，否则其营收和利润增长会急剧减速，这很可能在未来一两年就会发生。

一句话：尽管百度第二季财报抢眼，但未来一两年中其营收和利润增长可能大幅放缓，因其核心搜索业务开始趋於成熟，而广告客户将开始控制广告支出。

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