Don’t do it! Those are the only words of advice I can offer Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Chairman and founder Liu Chuanzhi, whose latest comments indicate his is weighing a possible bid for the PC assets that global leader Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is putting up for sale. (Chinese article) Liu, who built Lenovo from a local computer builder into the world’s fourth largest PC brand, was understandably reserved in his remarks to reporters on the subject, but his constant use of the phrase “something to consider” indicates to me that his mind is already moving in the direction of making a bid, an easy conclusion to make in light of his fondness for acquisitions that have included his blockbuster purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) PC business, and its more recent takeover of smaller PC operations in Japan and Germany. (previous post) Liu, if he did make a bid, would clearly be looking to vault his company past Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) to become the world’s top PC player, which this deal would clearly do. But the risks are huge, and it’s not at all clear to me that Lenovo could survive a successful bid, especially as it faces huge new competition from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in its home China market that accounts for half of its sales. (previous post) At the top of my list of concerns is the very real possibility that Lenovo would seriously overpay for the HP unit, as it faced strong rival bids from better-funded companies like Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Acer, and perhaps even Dell. But even more important, Lenovo would have an extremely hard time integrating its own business with HP’s, which is already much bigger and far more complex due to the company’s longer history and vast geographic reach. Lenovo might argue its IBM PC purchase has given it valuable experience in such integrations, which is partly true. But let’s also not forget the IBM integration was especially painful for Lenovo, and there’s every reason to believe that HP would be even more painful. If Liu Chuanzhi is smart, he will do his due diligence on HP’s PC business, and quickly decide it’s not worth bidding.
Bottom line: Recent comments from Lenovo’s chairman indicate he may be considering a bid for HP’s PC business — a move that if successful would prove disastrous.
别收购惠普PC业务！这是我给联想(0992.HK)创始人兼董事长柳传志的唯一建议。柳传志的近期评论暗示他正在权衡是否收购惠普(HPQ.N)旗下的PC业务。柳传志把联想从一个本土电脑商打造为全球第四大PC品牌，对记者的这一问题表示了可以理解的保留态度。但我认为，他多次使用“值得考虑”一词表明，他有意参加这次竞购，何况他向来喜欢并购，联想曾收购IBM(IBM.N)的PC业务，近期又收购日本NEC和德国Medion公司的PC业务。如果柳传志竞购惠普PC业务，明显是希望超过戴尔和台湾宏基(2353.TW: 行情)，成为全球第一大PC制造商，该收购案如果成功确实能实现这一点。但联想收购惠普PC业务风险巨大，而且我尚不清楚，联想是否能竞购成功，尤其是联想在中国市场还面临苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)的巨大挑战。我最担忧的是，竞购惠普PC业务时，联想面对三星(005930.KS)、宏基、甚至戴尔等对手的强劲竞标，可能会出价过高。但更重要的是，联想在整合惠普与其自身业务时可能历经艰辛，因为惠普历史悠久、市场更多，所以业务更庞大，也更复杂。联想可能会辩称，收购IBM PC业务为期提供了宝贵经验，一定程度上确实如此。但请不要忘记，联想整合IBM时非常痛苦，我们有理由相信，整合惠普会更痛苦。如果柳传志聪明的话，他应该对惠普PC业务进行独立的尽职调查，并迅速作出惠普PC业务不值得竞购的决定。
一句话：联想董事长柳传志近期评论表示，他可能考虑竞购惠普PC业务，此举若成功，有可能会带来灾难性後果。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”
It’s Monday morning, which means there’s not too much news in the market yet and instead it’s a good time for one of my period looks at the broader auto industry. A wide array of new data is out on July sales, which show the continuing decline of China’s top 3 independent auto brands, BYD (HKEx: 1211), Chery and Geely (HKEx: 165). BYD’s top-selling model, the F3, continued its plunge in July, with sales down 41 percent from a year earlier. Sales for Chery’s top model, the QQ, grew just 0.9 percent, lagging the broader market and causing it to lose share. Geely doesn’t have a model in the top 20, but its overall sales fell 6.3 percent in July, a month when overall passenger vehicle sales rose 12 percent. The stumbling of these top 3 domestic brands bears a striking resemblance to a similar trend from six or seven years ago, when domestic cellphone makers like TCL (HKEx: 2618) and Ningbo Bird suddenly emerged to challenge the then-dominant positions of market leaders Nokia, Motorola and Samsung. But in that instance the domestic firms soon fell almost as quickly as they rose, never to return in most cases. The reason was relatively simple: they all soared to prominence on the strength of one or two popular models that captured the public’s interest. But then they failed to follow with more popular models in an industry where product life-cycles typically run around 2-3 years, causing them to quickly fade. The same now appears to be happening with these domestic car makers. Both BYD and Chery found quick success with the F3 and QQ, respectively, but are now struggling to develop popular new models as these successful ones near the end of their life cycles. If they fail to find other new hits soon, they could easily find themselves following in the footsteps of faded names like Ningbo Bird and TCL.
While the rest of the world buzzes about Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) blockbuster deal to buy Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), eyes in China are more focused on a worrisome report regarding struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), which once dominated the Chinese market but is rapidly losing share to up-and-comers like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). According to the report, a growing number of Chinese sellers are refusing to accept shipments of Nokia phones, in what looks like a rebellion after years of being bullied by Nokia when it dominated both the China and global markets. (
