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Samsung in China: latest business and financial News by former journalist at Reuter, expert of Chinese high Tech Market Doug Young
Samsung in China: latest News

Lenovo’s TV Gamble: Failure Ahead? 联想电视赌注：未来会失败吗？

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I should credit leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) for being ahead of the curve by releasing its new smart TV in China last week, getting a slight lead on a widely anticipated launch for by Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) for a similar new product group that could revolutionize the way people watch TV. (English article) Reviews are still few for Lenovo’s new product, a 55-inch TV called the K91; but based on its past track record as a company with limited capability in new product design, I would offer only a very small chance for this product to succeed, potentially costing Lenovo hundreds of millions of dollars in development and marketing costs. The reason for my pessimism is simple: Lenovo, a specialist in PCs for developing markets, has never shown any ability to be a leader in new product design, especially in areas where it has little or no experience. Its previous forays into cellphones, gaming consoles and tablet PCs have all been mostly flops, failing to generate any buzz or excitement after having to compete with better designed products from the likes of more innovative firms like Apple, Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Asustek (Taipei: 2357) and HTC (HKEx: 2498). Given that poor track record, I have little reason to believe this latest initiative will succeed either, especially since such smart TVs are a completely new category and thus there are few products out there to use as a guidebook into what works and what doesn’t for this area. I do at least have to give Lenovo credit for trying hard by buying state-of-the art technology for its first smart TV, with components coming from such top-end suppliers as chip designer Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), audio technology firm DTS (Nasdaq: DTSI) and its operating system based on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android platform. The company may also be making a smart choice by launching the product in its home China market, where it is the dominant PC brand and which accounts for around half of its sales. But its early launch even in China could mean very little if its product doesn’t contain content and functionality that ordinary consumers want. What’s more, competing products from Samsung and especially Apple are likely to hit the market in a matter of months, meaning Lenovo won’t have much of a head-start over these rivals whose products will no doubt contain more features and generate more buzz than the Lenovo TVs. Lenovo hasn’t said very much about response for the product in the week since its launch, saying only that performance has exceeded its expectations. (Chinese article) But considering its past track record, look for the K91 to post disappointing sales over the longer term, perhaps in the tens of thousands this year, and for this broader smart TV initiative to end up as a failure for Lenovo like many of its other new product initiatives.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s new smart TV initiative is likely to fail despite an early head-start over rivals in China, with products from foreign rivals likely to eventually dominate the market.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ NEC China Cellphones: New Lenovo Tie-Up? NEC计划重回中国手机市场 或与联想联姻

◙ Lenovo Completes Leadership Change, Yang Uninspired 联想完成高层调整，杨元庆难鼓舞人心

◙ Apple Feasts on China, Baidu Burps 苹果在华享受盛宴，百度盛宴停顿

Bottom line:

Sharp Explores China Cellphone Tie-Up 夏普联手富士康打造低端手机

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There’s an interesting story out today saying that fading Japanese electronics giant Sharp (Tokyo: 3128) is exploring the possibility of a cellphone tie-up with Taiwan’s Foxconn (HKEx: 2038), the latest wrinkle in a story that is seeing a growing number of Japanese firms hand over many of their struggling consumer electronics to Chinese firms that specialize in low-cost manufacturing. The latest media reports indicate that talks are very preliminary, saying only that top executives from Foxconn and Sharp met in Beijing this week to discuss such a tie-up. (English article; Chinese article) It adds that Foxconn could find such a tie-up attractive as it seeks to develop its own brands and move away from its core contract manufacturing, a low-margin business that sees it make products for other companies such as Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhones. For Sharp, such a tie-up would be part of its ongoing strategy to either sell or outsource many of its less profitable businesses to other firms. In this case, Sharp is still clearly a recognizable name in the cellphone space, but it’s also a decidedly second-tier player and its cellphone operations are probably not very profitable. That could be a good fit for Foxconn, which could significantly lower Sharp’s manufacturing costs and also has good resources for developing new products. In fact, this deal, if it happens, would look strikingly similar to a growing relationship between Chinese PC specialist Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Japan’s NEC (Tokyo: 6701). That relationship began last year when NEC and Lenovo formed a joint venture that saw Lenovo take over the operation of NEC’s PC operations. (previous post) Like Sharp in cellphones, NEC is a relatively well known PC brand, but also a decidedly second-tier player that is rapidly losing relevance outside its home Japan market. After that tie-up was formed, NEC announced later in the year that it was re-entering the China cellphone market after withdrawing several years earlier. (previous post) There were few details in that announcement, but the timing so close after the PC tie-up with Lenovo led me to speculate that NEC was going to rely heavily on Lenovo’s well-established sales channels in China to relaunch its cellphones in the market. I further speculated that if NEC was successful in gaining some market share, it could eventually put its cellphone business into another joint venture with Lenovo, effectively handing over the brand to the Chinese firm. Such a move would certainly make sense for Lenovo, as it wants to rapidly build up its cellphone business but has had trouble developing its own brand, especially at the higher end of the market where it faces still competition from names like Apple, HTC (Taipei: 2498) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). I would give these latest talks between Sharp and Foxconn a 50-50 chance of resulting in a new joint venture, and would look for more similar tie-ups in the next couple of years.

Bottom line: Sharp’s cellphone talks with Foxconn have a 50-50 chance of producing a joint venture, and reflect the growing ties between Chinese and Japanese electronics makers.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Sister Firm Looks to Japan, Taobao Quits “围城”日本：弘毅想冲进去 淘宝想撤出来

◙ NEC China Cellphones: New Lenovo Tie-Up? NEC计划重回中国手机市场 或与联想联姻

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

TCL Cellphones: History Repeats Itself TCL手机业务历史重演

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After pronouncing last year that TCL Communication (HKEx: 2618) had successfully completed a turnaround for its cellphone business that nearly bankrupted the company 6 years ago, it seems I need to update my view on this cyclical firm where history is now repeating itself. The cellphone making sister company of leading  Chinese TV maker TCL Multimedia (HKEx: 1070) issued an ominous warning late last week, saying its first-quarter profit would be “significantly lower” that the previous year. (company announcement) That announcement prompted the company’s China-listed parent, TCL Corp (Shenzhen: 000100) to issue a similar warning saying its first quarter profit would also tumble 75-85 percent. (Chinese article) What a difference a year makes. At this time last year, TCL Communication was showing all the signs of a successful turnaround from a disastrous purchases of the handset business of France’s Alcatel (Paris: ALUA) in 2004-5 that nearly bankrupted the company. TCL eventually managed to stabilize the business, presumably by moving most of its manufacturing to China, and saw its fortunes soar on strong sales of Alcatel phones in Europe where the brand is well known and respected. Unfortunately, TCL failed to build much of a name for itself in its home China market, where it originally rose to prominence as a maker of cheap cellphones a decade ago but later largely disappeared due to failure to innovate. In this latest profit warning, the company said its core European market is being hard hit by the continent’s ongoing debt crisis, which has dampened sales. But perhaps just as important, TCL also said it is also to blame for failing to develop more products for the booming smartphone segment, which has become dominated by names like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and HTC (Taipei: 2498). That failure to keep up with the latest market trends looks strikingly familiar to TCL’s previous downfall in its home China market, showing this company hasn’t learned enough from its past mistakes. Investors have punished TCL Communications stock as a result of these latest missteps,with its shares tumbling more than 50 percent over the last 12 months. The company appears to finally be waking up to the new reality, saying it has signed new deals with China’s top 2 wireless carriers to tap its home market where it enjoys some natural advantages. It said it is also developing more smartphones, in a bid to catch up with Apple and the other leaders in that space. I personally have a lot of respect for TCL’s Chairman Thomson Li and his management teams, and think they could quite possibly engineer another turnaround for this struggling cellphone unit, providing an interesting investment opportunity. But I would also warn that such a turnaround is far from guaranteed, and only strong believers with some extra cash might consider taking that risk right now.

Bottom line: TCL’s cellphone unit is experiencing a sharp decline due to lack of forward-thinking, but is taking steps that could give it a good chance to rebound next year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ TCL Comeback Gains Momentum with Italy Deals TCL牵手意大利 复苏之势获动力

◙ All Eyes Turn to TV in TCL Comeback

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

 

 

ZTE Results: Waiting for Returns 中兴坚持低成本手机策略 亟需尽早盈利

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I’m feeling slightly artistic this morning, hence my choice of headline for this posting which is a reference to the famous Samuel Beckett play “Waiting for Godot,” about 2 people excitedly waiting for a person who will probably never appear. The same story could be true for ZTE (HKEx: 763;  Shenzhen: 000063), whose just-released results showed plunging profits and rapidly rising costs as the company takes a risky bet on the low-cost smartphone market that may bring in lots of new revenue but never pay any returns in the form of new profits. (results announcement; English article) Let’s take a closer look at the earnings, which show the company’s profit plunged nearly 50 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, accelerating from a 40 percent decline in the previous quarter as profits for the year fell 37 percent. A closer look at the company’s income statement shows that costs rose sharply, with R&D and marketing expenses up 20 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Furthermore, the company’s annual profit would have tumbled even more if not for a big jump in one-time investment gains. ZTE has been quite direct about its desire to become a top-five cellphone maker in the next 2-3 years, and has embarked on a focused strategy to achieve that goal by rolling out a new line of lower cost smartphones priced very aggressively. That goal is certainly commendable and I applaud the company for staying focused on its aim despite the profit erosion that is clearly a cause of concern for investors. The company’s Hong Kong-listed shares are down 45 percent over the last 52 weeks, and have lost around 20 percent of their value so far this year, even as the broader market has rallied about 15 percent. The cellphone gamble is at once both a smart move and a very risky one. On the one hand, ZTE realizes its need to diversify beyond its core networking equipment business, which has run into numerous roadblocks in the last few years from western markets concerned about security issues. Cellphones are much less controversial and have steadier sales, and ZTE is drawing on its expertise as a low-cost manufacturer to focus on the lower end of the booming market for smartphones that can take advantage of high-speed 3G and 4G wireless networks. The only problem is that ZTE is hardly the only company to notice the trend, and is joining a very crowded market that includes heavyweights like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), not to mention hometown rival Huawei Technologies, which is making a similar aggressive smartphone play. At the end of the day there’s no reason a few companies can’t succeed in the low-cost smartphone market, and ZTE could certainly be one of those. But unless it can start to show some profits by the second half of this year from its cellphone gamble, look for trouble  ahead for this company and continuing downward pressure on its stock.

Bottom line: ZTE’s latest results reflect its ongoing push into low-cost cellphones, but it needs to show returns by the second half of this year or risk losing investor confidence.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu, ZTE Earnings: More of the Same 百度和中兴财报：看上去没变化

◙ Huawei and ZTE: Swapping Networking for Cellphones? 华为和中兴：转型进军手机市场？

◙ ZTE Faces More Profit Erosion With Latest Low-Cost Moves 中兴通讯以低价机抢占市场恐损及获利

Spreadtrum, Samsung in Latest China 3G Model 展讯与三星再度联手开发中国标准3G智能手机

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After surviving a short seller attack last year, cellphone chip maker Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) has taken the latest step in its drive to become a specialist in smartphone chips for use with China’s homegrown 3G standard, TD-SCDMA, by co-developing a second model with global giant Samsung (Seoul: 005930). (company announcement) Samsung’s roll-out of the Galaxy Note GT-I9228, using a Spreadtrum TD-SCDMA chip, is the Korean company’s second such model since last September, and signals the companies are forming a strong partnership for phones based on the 3G standard being used by China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). Now, of course, the big question will be whether China Mobile will start to promote TD-SCDMA service more aggressively, following a disappointing 2011 that saw it lose steady share in the 3G market to rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHU) and especially China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). Spreadtrum shares have gone on a roller coaster ride over the last year, partly due to the inherent risk of investing so much in a technology with no track record and one that could ultimately see only lukewarm sales. Its share plunged in July after a short seller attack questioning an inventory buildup as the company broadened its product line as part of its TD-SCDMA bet. It ultimately survived that attack and its shares more than doubled from their lows at that time. But since November its shares have again lost about half of their value, due at least in part to disappointment about China Mobile’s lackluster promotion of 3G. Of course, part of the problem for China Mobile has been a lack of exciting smartphone models to run on its 3G network, so the introduction of 2 Samsung TD-SCDMA models should help address that problem. China Mobile has also sent out its own recent signals indicating it will make a stronger push in 3G this year under new management, though we have yet to see much real results of that. (previous post) If you’re a Spreadtrum investor, you’re most likely going to be closely watching China Mobile’s 3G subscriber numbers closely this year, as the chip maker’s stock price is likely to move in step with how quickly the network develops.

Bottom line: Spreadtrum’s latest tie-up with Samsung affirms its commitment to TD-SCDMA 3G standard, putting it at the mercy of China Mobile’s promotion of the untested technology.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile 3G: Where Are the Subscribers? 中国移动3G：订户在哪里？

◙ Spreadtrum, Mediatek in Cheap Smartphone Plays

◙ Spreadtrum Takes Smart Gamble on China 3G

News Digest: February 2, 2012 报摘： 2012年2月2日

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on February 2. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo, Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) Form Strategic Partnership (English article)

◙ DuPont, Suntech (NYSE: STP) Sign Strategic Agreement (PRNewswire)

◙ Samsung Selects Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) Baseband for Galaxy Note GT-I9228 (PRNewswire)

◙ CNOOC (HKEx: 883) to Invest $300 Million in Isofoton Venture for Solar Energy in China (English article)

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIIDU) to Report Q4 2011 Results on February 16 (PRNewswire)

◙ Latest calendar for Q1 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

Apple Suffers Setback in China Lawsuit Loss 苹果在华商标侵权案初尝苦果

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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) may be able to bully big names like Samsung (Seoul: 005930) by suing them in Western courtrooms over intellectual property (IP) infringement claims, but it may find the tactic more difficult to pursue in China, where it has just lost a major trademark lawsuit to a much smaller Taiwanese player. According to domestic media reports, a court in the southern boomtown of Shenzhen has ruled against Apple, the world’s biggest tech company, in a lawsuit it brought against Proview (HKEx: 334) claiming infringement of its iPad trademark. (English article)  The case looks a bit complex, as Proview apparently registered the iPad name all the way back in 2000, well before iPads or even iPhones existed. Apple sued Proview in Britain in 2006 over the matter, claiming the Taiwan company was no longer using the name and thus had lost the rights to it. But clearly the matter was never fully settled, leading to the latest action in Shenzhen. Proview is a relatively big Taiwanese company, but still nowhere near as large as Samsung, which is being sued by Apple in various courts throughout the world over IP infringement allegations related to Samsung’s use of Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating system in its smartphones. Back in September, Apple filed for and received a number of Chinese patents related to its IP and trademarks, leading me to suspect it was planning to bring its “fight them with litigation” approach to China, targeting not only Samsung but also a wide range of domestic handset makers including Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) that also produce models using Android. (previous post) This setback for Apple in Shenzhen shows that the Chinese courts may not be as receptive to Apple’s bullying tactics as some Western courts, which may make the company think twice about its use of litigation as a tool in China for its ongoing global anti-Android drive.

Bottom line: Apple’s loss of a trademark infringement case in Shenzhen means it may have a difficult time bringing its litigious anti-Android campaign to China.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple Prepares to Bring Anti-Android Drive to China 苹果计划在华反击Android

◙ Apple Prepares to Take on China Pirates 苹果开始接受人民币付款购买应用软件

◙ Apple Overlooks China — Again 苹果再次撇开中国内地市场

News Digest: December 7, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on December 7. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ GM (NYSE: GM) China Sales Growth Accelerates as Auto Demand Shrinks for Ford, Honda (English article)

◙ 54% of China Mobile (HKEx: 941) Data Card Users on 2G Networks – Memo (English article)

◙ Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) Responds to the Citron Report (PRNewswire)

◙ Merck Establishes New MSD R&D Asia Headquarters in Beijing (Businesswire)

◙ Samsung (Seoul: 005930) Plans Flash Chip Line in China (English article)

Apple Prepares to Bring Anti-Android Drive to China 苹果计划在华反击Android

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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has taken the interesting step of getting 40 new patents in China, in what looks like an opening move that could ultimately see it target the growing number of Chinese cellphone makers that use Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android cellphone operating system. (English article) The report in the China Daily focuses on the more obvious potential aims of the patents, such as closing a slew of bogus Apple stores that have sprung up in China as Apple’s sales have soared to surpass those of leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992). (previous post) But the article points out the new patents also cover Apple’s popular user-friendly smartphone operating system (OS), which has been largely responsible for the huge boom in its iPhone and smartphone sales in general over the last 3 years. Apple has argued that Google’s free Android OS, which has been embraced by many of the world’s top cellphone makers, is a copycat of its own OS, and has successfully sued to halt the sale of popular Android-based smartphones and tablet PCs from Taiwan’s HTC (Taipei: 2498) and Korea’s Samsung (Seoul: 005930). Based on that behavior, this new round of patent filings in China looks like Apple is preparing to sue Chinese smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo and TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618; Shenzhen: 000100), which all use Android. ZTE in particular could be at big risk, as its recent drive to become a global leader in smartphones costing as little as $100 each (previous post) relies heavily on Android. If Apple does file such a lawsuit, it will be interesting to see how China’s courts react as obviously any ruling in Apple’s favor could deal a big blow to the domestic industry. But anyone industry watchers should also note that Chinese courts don’t appear to have any power to make temporary rulings like judges do in the US, meaning any enforcement action can only occur after a judge makes a final decision — a process that could take months or even a year. Still, considering Apple’s success so far in the US against giants like Samsung and HTC, Chinese smartphone makers would be well advised to start drawing up plans for new Android alternatives if and when Apple moves its anti-Android battle to China.

Bottom line: Apple’s new round of patents in China look like the prelude to lawsuits against domestic smartphone makers like ZTE, which rely heavily on Google’s free Android operating system.

苹果(AAPL.O)在华成功申请了40项新专利，其终极目标看似是对采用谷歌(GOOG.O)Android系统的中国手机商亮剑的第一步。《中国日报》的报导侧重苹果旨在专利维权的一面，例如关闭苹果山寨零售店等。由于苹果电脑在华销量大涨，超过PC领军企业联想(0992.HK)，苹果山寨店如雨後春笋般涌现。但文章指出，苹果新申请的专利还包括其界面友好的智能手机操作系统(OS)，这一操作系统是过去三年推动iPhone和智能手机销量整体上升的重要原因。苹果辩称，全球许多顶级手机商采用的谷歌免费提供的Android系统，是抄袭苹果OS系统的设计。苹果还在宏达电(HTC)(2498.TW)和三星(005930.KS)专利侵权案中胜诉，成功迫使两家公司的Android智能手机和平板电脑暂停销售。鉴于此举，苹果在华新一轮的专利申请，看似将准备起诉使用Android系统的中国智能手机制造商，例如中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想和TCL通讯(2618.HK)。中兴通讯面临的风险尤其大，因为其近期力争成为售价低至100美元的智能手机的全球领军企业，该公司的这一计划严重依赖Anroid系统。如果苹果提出侵权诉讼，中国法院如何回应是件有趣的事情，因为任何明显有利于苹果的判决，都将重创中国手机产业。但业内观察者也指出，中国法庭进行终裁後才会有执行举措，而法庭裁判过程往往耗时数月甚至一年。话说回来，考虑到苹果在美胜诉三星和宏达电侵权，中国智能手机商最好早做打算，制定替代Android的新计划，以防苹果万一在华打响反击Android战役。

一句话：苹果在华新一轮专利申请，看似是起诉中兴通讯等中国智能手机商的前奏，这些本土企业严重依赖谷歌免费提供的Android操作系统。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

LG Display Mulls China LCD Shift

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Interesting reports coming out of Korea hint that LG Display (Seoul: 034220) may be having second thoughts about building a state-of-the-art LCD plant in China, despite years of lobbying for just such a move, in what could actually be a good development for China’s tech sector. Media are reporting that LG Display, which together with hometown rival Samsung Electronics (Seoul: 005930) and Taiwan’s AU Optronics (Taipei: 2409) received permission to operate cutting edge LCD plants in China early this year, has now put its hard-won approval on hold, believing that global capacity for LCDs may be sufficient and peaking as the technology matures. (English article) I must say that I quite agree with this view, as large LCD screen products could well be headed into a permanent downcycle as rival products based on more power-efficient LED technology gain momentum with larger and larger screens boasting higher resolution hitting the market. The power consumption argument is critical especially for portable devices, as LED-based tablet and notebook computers get significantly more battery life using than LCD-based products. The rise of LEDs could make the looming LCD downturn even more painful with the addition of major new capacity in China being built not only by Samsung and AU, but also a major new plant operated by domestic player TCL (Shenzhen: 000100), which counts Samsung among its investors. If the Korean reports are true, and I suspect they are, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Samsung, AU Optronics, and Taiwan’s Chimei Innolux (Taipei: 3481), which also has China aspirations, make similar adjustments to their China strategy. While China would lose out in the short term as investment dollars for LCD projects are scrapped, it would actually benefit in the longer term by largely skipping the LCD chapter of the video screen story, and instead jumping directly to next-generation LEDs.

Bottom line: LG Display’s potential scrapping of its China LCD plans are an early indicator that China could become a global leader in next-generation LED production.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ AU Plays Catch-Up With China Panel Plan 台湾友达在大陆LCD面板争夺战中占得先机

◙ TCL on the Comeback Trail With Samsung Tie-Up TCL与三星结盟 重振旗鼓

◙ TCL Comeback Gains Momentum with Italy Deals TCL牵手意大利 复苏之势获动力

China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

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With its new top management now firmly running the show, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) continues to embrace its previously neglected 3G network, preparing to roll out a large new array of handsets that will work on the system using a homegrown mobile standard. Local media are reporting that China Mobile is preparing to launch some 30 new 3G handsets for its TD-SCDMA system, covering a wide range of price-points and models from nearly every major manufacturer, including Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and BlackBerry (Toronto: RIM), as well as homegrown players ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. (English article) Of course, the big piece still missing is a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, but all indications point to introduction of an iPhone that can work on China Mobile’s 3G system by the end of the year. (previous post) As its 3G push picks up momentum, look for the balance in China’s young 3G market to swing back in China Mobile’s direction, as it retakes share from rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). Separately on the telecoms front, Nokia has come out and confessed that it is suffering from “channel issues” in China, following media reports earlier this month that its China distributors were rebelling en masse by refusing to sell its increasingly unpopular models after years of bullying. (Chinese article) According to this  latest report, Nokia forced large volumes of its phones on distributors in the first quarter of this year, allowing it to post 30 percent shipment growth in China for the period. But many of those phones couldn’t compete with more popular models, especially in the smartphone space, causing inventories to balloon and distributors to refuse to accept more handsets. As a result, Nokia’s China shipments tumbled 41 percent in the second quarter. Clearly the company is set for more stormy times ahead in China, at least until it comes out with its highly-anticipated new line of smartphones later this year based on Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Mango operating system.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s new 3G push will help it grab market share from rivals, while Nokia will continue to slide in China at least until it rolls out its new Mango-based smartphones.

中国移动(0941.HK; CHL.N)在新的管理层全力指挥下，继续向先前忽略的3G网络发力，准备扎堆推出一系列采用本土3G标准的新款手机。据国内媒体报导，中移动准备发布高、中、低档总数约30款的TD-SCDMA新机型，分别出自诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)、三星电子(005930.KS)、黑莓制造商Research In Motion(RIMM.O)及本土企业中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)与华为等厂商。当然，仍然缺少重量级产品–TD版的苹果iPhone，但所有迹象都表明：适用于中国移动3G网络的TD版iPhone今年年底前可能推出。随着中移动突击发展3G网络，中国诞生不久的3G格局可能会向中移动倾斜，因它可能会从竞争对手中国联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)与中国电信(0728.HK; CHA.N)中抢回一些市场份额。另外，在手机制造商方面，诺基亚已经承认在中国市场“渠道”环节出问题。此前媒体报导称，由于中国渠道商不愿出售诺基亚越来越受不欢迎的机型，诺基亚开始遭遇集体“反水”。根据最新报导，诺基亚今年第一季度在向渠道商大量压货的情况下，手机出货量有不错表现，录得30%的同比增长。但很多诺基亚机型无法与对手竞争，尤其是在智能手机领域，造成库存高企，渠道商拒绝接受更多现货。结果，诺基亚第二季度在中国的手机出货量同比大跌41%。显然，诺基亚未来在中国还要面临很多困难，至少今年稍晚推出搭载微软最新的Mango操作系统的新产品系列前，道路会很坎坷。

一句话：中移动在3G领域再发力，有助于帮助它从竞争对手手中夺回一些市场份额；诺基亚近期在华业绩仍会下滑，至少其Mango系统新机推出前难改颓势。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议