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Keep up with the latest financial news and breaking business of ICBC China

Banks to Lend More, But to Whom? 银行获准增加放贷 但流向选择有限

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Chinese banks are fast becoming a group of financial contradictions, rushing to implement the latest government financial directives even when doing so makes little or no commercial sense, once again spotlighting the big risk that investors take by buying into these companies. The latest twist in China’s ongoing banking saga has central planners suddenly loosening their grip on the nation’s lenders, which were under strict orders last year to curb their new loans to help Beijing cool an overheated economy. But following a GDP report earlier this week that saw growth slip to a 2 year low of 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter, central planners are deciding that perhaps banks should lend a little more to make sure the economy doesn’t cool too much. Separate media reports are saying that Beijing has suddenly decided that top banks, including names like ICBC (HKEx: 1389; Shanghai: 601398) and China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), can increase their lending by up to 5 percent this quarter (English article), and that the banking regulator may also loosen capital requirements. (English article) Both of these moves are clearly designed to pump more money into the economy to spur growth, much the way Beijing did at the height of the global financial crisis when traditional economic engines like exports and foreign investment dropped off sharply. The only problem this time is that while Beijing has given the green light for banks to lend more, it isn’t giving them very many options about where they can make those new loans. Two of the biggest traditional sources of new loans, real estate mortgages and government infrastructure, both remain off-limits for banks, as Beijing tries to cool the overpriced home market and worries about the potential for massive defaults on a huge jump in loans made to local governments for new infrastructure during the global slowdown. Lending to small and medium sized enterprises also looks unlikely to grow much soon, as corporate lending by the big banks typically goes to big state-owned enterprises. With all those lending channels closed or inaccessible, one of the few remaining outlets is the stock market, as another major source of loans is for individuals and companies that use the funds to bet on the stock market. So we could potentially see the stock market get a lift from this latest Beijing banking directive, though that kind of boost hardly seems healthy or natural, and could lead to even more problems in the form of more bad loans if the stock market rally is short-lived.

Bottom line: China’s banks are fast becoming schizophrenic lenders intent on implementing Beijing’s latest directives, leading them to policies that make little or no commercial sense.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 2012: Capitial Raising II Year For China Banks 2012：中国银行业的又一个融资年

◙ Ping An Returns to Market With Second Big Fund Request 中国平安拟发大规模可转债

◙ Beijing’s Financial Shufflle: Bankers or Regulators? 中国金融高层“大换血”

 

Bank of China Considers Offshore I-Banking 中国银行考虑收购RBS投行资产

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Bank of China (HKEx: 3988; Shanghai: 601988), historically the most outward looking of China’s big 4 state-run banks, may be trying to recapture some of its former glory as a global player, with news that it’s exploring the potential purchase of investment banking assets from Britain’s nationalized Royal Bank of Scotland (London: RBS). Media reports say Bank of China is just one of several potential buyers interested in the RBS assets, and that the process is still quite preliminary. (English article) But at least on the surface, this kind of acquisition looks like a smart move for Bank of China, as the size would be quite manageable and it would immediately gain access to a relatively well established global investment banking business. China bank watchers will recall that Bank of China was at one time the nation’s sole provider of foreign exchange services, and thus was its most outward looking bank in the days when the country’s financial services industry was largely shut off from the outside world. Bank of China also has a small investment banking arm in Hong Kong, but it has lost the title of most outward looking bank in recent years to more aggressive rival ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), which, in the last few years has made a steady string of acquisitions in a number of markets in Africa, Asia and South America, and counts Standard Bank, Africa’s largest bank, as a major partner. (previous post) Bank of China, meantime, has been relatively quiet on the international stage, preferring to focus most of its activity at home. This new interest by Bank of China probably signals its management intends to get more active on the global front, potentially by picking up a lingering trickle of assets being sold off by banks like RBS that took hits during the global financial crisis. Many of those assets have already been sold off, but there are still a few floating around out there that could be attractive targets for Bank of China, which, at least based on this bid and its history as a forex trader, looks more interested in fee-based financial services. By comparison ICBC looks more focused on more traditional retail and commercial banking.

Bottom line: Bank of China’s interest in investment banking assets being sold by RBS show it may want to become more global, and could make more bids for other fee-based global banking assets.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ICBC Discovers China’s Latest Low-Cost Export: Currency 工行将从非洲人民币结算业务中获益

◙ CCB Explores Overseas Step to Indonesia

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

China Banks: More Trouble Signs

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Just a week after a leading Chinese newspaper predicted a new wave of capital raising by China’s banks this year, the latest trouble sign is emerging for the overstretched sector with news that Beijing will delay implementing tougher new capital requirements. The China Daily is citing a Bank of China (HKEx: 3988; Shanghai: 601398) official saying the banking regulator will postpone tougher new requirements, which were supposed to take effect on January 1, to the second half of the year instead. The news comes as signs mount that balance sheets at China’s banks are coming under growing pressure as the real estate market shows early signs of a major correction and the stock market fell 20 percent in 2011, both of which point to a big rise in souring loans this year. Last week, ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) launched a nearly $8 billion subordinated bond offering to raise its capital adequacy ratio in anticipation of the new requirement, looking to the debt market to boost its capital. (English article) That came after the China Securities Journal wrote last week that many lenders, including Agricultural Bank of China (HKEx: 1288; Shanghai: 601288), one of China’s top 4 state lenders, and Bank of Communications (HKEx: 3328; Shanghai: 601328), a top regional lender, will need to replenish their capital this year, following a lending binge in 2009 and 2010 under orders from Beijing to boost the economy during the global downturn. (previous post) This new recapitalization will come only 2 years after a similar exercise that saw banks raise more than $100 billion collectively, again prompted by their overzealous lending during the global downturn. China Merchants Bank (HKEx: 3968; Shanghai: 600036), another major regional lender, kicked off the drive in the middle of last year with a plan to raise $5.4 billion. The contagion this time has shown signs of spreading to the insurance sector, with Ping An (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), China’s second largest insurer, also announcing a plan in December to raise more than $4 billion. No matter how you look at it, 2012 will be a challenging year for Chinese banks and perhaps even tougher for their investors.

Bottom line: The delay of new tougher capital requirements is the latest sign of trouble among China’s banks, which will soon launch a major new capital raising drive.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 2012: Capital Raising II Year For China Banks

◙ Ping An Returns to Market With Second Big Fund Request 中国平安拟发大规模可转债

◙ Message to Beijing: Privatize the Big 4 Banks 对中国政府说：将四大银行退市吧

News Digest: October 29-31, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on October 29-31. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ Lashou Files For IPO to Raise Up To $100 Million (Chinese article; English article)

◙ E-House (NYSE: EJ) Proposes to Buy Outstanding CRIC (Nasdaq: CRIC) Shares (PRNewswire)

◙ Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) May Partner on Online Video – Source (English article)

◙ Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) Aims To Sell Asia Assets, Not Entire Company – Source (Chinese article)

◙ ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) Third-Quarter Profit Gains 28% (English article)

Message to Beijing: Privatize the Big 4 Banks 对中国政府说：将四大银行退市吧

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I’m going to be a bit controversial today and make a bold suggestion that may seem obvious to some, namely that China should privatize its big 4 banks and let them resume their role as the state-owned policy lenders that they were for their first 50 years. The idea may sound extreme, but it’s exactly the approach that Beijing seems to be taking first by forcing its banks to issue billions of dollars worth of new shares to shore up their balance sheets last year, and now by announcing it will buy up even more of their stock to support their sagging shares. The banks’ majority shareholder, the central government-controlled Central Huijin, provided few specifics other than to say it has started buying up shares in the top 4 lenders, ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 6019399), Bank of China (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) and Agricultural Bank of China (HKEx: 1288; Shanghai: 601288). (English article) Let’s review the facts: Huijin, which controls a third or more of each of those banks, already boosted its holdings in the 3 of the 4 last year when each made a multibillion-dollar share rights offering to strengthen their balance sheets after a year-long lending binge ordered by Beijing to prop up the economy at the height of the global financial crisis in 2009. This new buy-back will put even more of the banks’ shares into Huijin’s hands, boosting the central government’s ownership even further. Shares of all 4 banks jumped in late Monday trading in Hong Kong on the news, and we could well see those gains extended on Tuesday. But the banks’ shares are still down sharply over the last year, falling 40-50 percent from their 52-week highs. The main reason for their poor performance is that investors realize that despite their publicly listed status, all 4 banks still take their orders from Beijing and show no signs of changing those habits, making them less attractive as growth companies. That said, it would make more sense for Beijing to just end the charade and take all 4 of the banks private again so they can continue in their role as policy tools of the central government.

Bottom line: Beijing’s latest move to buy back sagging shares in the country’s top 4  lenders further underscores their function as policy lenders that should be privatized.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Record Profits Bolster Banks as Storm Looms 创纪录利润有助银行抵御楼市低迷隐忧

◙ ICBC Discovers China’s Latest Low-Cost Export: Currency 工行将从非洲人民币结算业务中获益

◙ China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

ICBC Discovers China’s Latest Low-Cost Export: Currency 工行将从非洲人民币结算业务中获益

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Cheap manufactured goods have been the mainstay of China’s exporting machine for years, but now leading bank ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) looks poised to ride an equally lucrative new wave by shipping huge bundles of China’s currency, the yuan, to Africa. That’s the message I get from a report in today’s China Daily, citing an executive of South Africa’s Standard Bank, ICBC’s chief partner in Africa, talking about the huge growth potential for yuan services in Africa. Standard Bank’s China head Craig Bond says at least 40 percent of Africa’s trade with China, or about $100 billion worth, will be settled in the Chinese currency by 2015, adding at least $10 billion of Chinese investment in Africa will be denominated in yuan over the same period. While Bond never mentions ICBC by name, industry watchers know the two share a strong alliance through ICBC’s ownership of 20 percent of Africa’s biggest lender, and that the pair are strengthening their tie-up with ICBC’s recent plans to purchase 80 percent of Standard Bank’s Argentine unit. (previous post) China is currently using Hong Kong as its main base to explore internationalizing the yuan, but Africa is a logical extension for that policy, as China is one of the largest buyers of natural resources from the continent, and the market isn’t dominated by the dollar or the euro to the extent that more developed Western markets are. I’ve said before that I really like ICBC’s tie-up with Standard Bank, which gives it great access to developing markets in Africa and Latin America where ICBC has the potential to leverage its expertise as China’s largest bank. If even half of Standard Bank’s prediction comes true, it will mark a huge opportunity for ICBC, which, working with Standard Bank, most likely would become the major provider of yuan currency services to Africa, providing a huge new growth opportunity in its international expansion.

Bottom line: ICBC, working with African partner Standard Bank, looks set to reap big rewards from an expected explosion in demand for yuan services in Africa.

多年来，廉价的工业制品一直是中国的出口引擎，但现在看起来，中国工商银行(601398.SS; 1398.HK)找到了另外一条同样利润丰厚的道路：向非洲“输出”大量人民币。这是我从《中国日报》今天一篇报导得出的信息，该报称，工行在非洲的主要合作夥伴–南非标准银行一名高管称，非洲的人民币结算业务增长潜力巨大。南非标银中国首席执行官庞凯歌（Craig Bond）称，到2015年，至少有40%的中非贸易（约1,000亿美元）将以人民币结算，届时至少有100亿美元中国对非投资也将以人民币结算。尽管庞凯歌没有提及工行，但业内观察者知道，工行持有南非标银20%股份，两者合作关系紧密，而工行近期计划收购南非标银阿根廷分公司80%股权，将进一步巩固工行和南非标银的关系。中国大陆目前正以香港为人民币国际化的主要试点，但非洲是这一政策的合理拓展方向，原因是中国是非洲自然资源的最大买方之一，美元和欧元在非洲市场的主导程度不及西方发达国家。我此前说过，我非常欣赏工行与南非标银的联手，工行作为中国最大的商业银行，有望借此进入非洲和拉美的发展中国家市场，充分施展其专长。即使届时只实现南非标准银行预测值的一半，也将为工行创造巨大商机，工行与标准银行合作，很可能将成为非洲人民币结算业务的主要提供方，为工行海外拓展提供了巨大增长机遇。

一句话：人民币结算业务料将在非洲呈爆发性增长，工行通过与南非标准银行的合作，势将获益匪浅。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Record Profits Bolster Banks as Storm Looms 创纪录利润有助银行抵御楼市低迷隐忧

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

◙ CCB Explores Overseas Step to Indonesia

Record Profits Bolster Banks as Storm Looms 创纪录利润有助银行抵御楼市低迷隐忧

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There’s not a lot to say about any one of China’s major state-owned banks for the latest earnings period, except that collectively they all posted record profits as they continue to reap strong revenue from record lending in 2009 and strong margins as China raises interest rates. (English article) ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), the nation’s largest bank and last to report, said its profit jumped 30 percent in the second quarter to $17 billion, in a typical scenario for most banks. If the banks are smart, I hope they’re using all those profits to bolster their capital, which seems to be constantly falling short of Beijing’s ever-rising reserve requirement ratios. Of course all these hikes are designed to brace the banks for an expected shock they will suffer if and when the real estate market corrects, which will severely affect not only their real estate loans, but the debt-repayment ability of local governments that rely heavily on land sales to pay off their loans. We already saw the first signs that a second round of massive capital raising may be coming last month, when China Merchants Bank (HKEx: 3968; Shanghai: 600036) announced plans to raise $5.4 billion through rights offerings. (previous post) China has been so worried about the looming downturn, and forcing its banks to prepare so much, that I’m starting to wonder if perhaps all the panic isn’t a bit overblown. Investors seem to think perhaps Beijing is being a bit too conservative, with ICBC and Agricultural Bank of China (HKEx: 1288; Shanghai: 601288) shares both outperforming the Hang Seng Index this year, though China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), which has more exposure to real estate, is faring less well. On the whole, I would say to look for the bank stocks to outperform the market in the months ahead, as investors start to believe that perhaps these troubled lenders have built up a big enough cushion to withstand the coming real estate downturn.

Bottom line: After record profits and massive fund raising two years ago, China’s banks may finally be adequately capitalized to withstand the coming downturn in China’s real estate market.

关于中国各大国有银行最新财报，并没有过多可谈论之处。除了一点：在2009年贷款额创新高及中国加息所带来的利润推动下，各家银行均发布了创纪录的收益。工商银行(1398.HK; 601398.SS)称，该行第二季度利润增加30%，至170亿美元，多数银行都取得了类似增长。如果各大银行聪明的话，我希望他们会利用所有利润充实资金，由于中国政府不断提高存款准备金率门槛，各家银行资金一再告急。当然，如果房地产市场降温，银行料将受到冲击，不仅是房贷严重减少，地方政府还贷能力也将降低，因为其主要依赖卖地还债。上月初步迹象显示，中国银行业或将掀起新一轮大规模融资，中国招商银行(3968.HK; 600036.SS)宣布，将在香港和上海发行权利股，筹集54亿美元。中国政府担忧经济低迷隐现，敦促各大银行提高存准率，我不禁猜想，这一切是否有些过度惊慌。投资者似乎认为，中国似乎有点过于保守，尽管中国建设银行(0939.HK; 601939.SS)受房地产影响较大，股价表现平平，但今年工行和农业银行(1288.HK; 601288.SS)股价均跑赢?生指数。整体而言，由于投资者开始相信，各大银行已搭建起足够大的“软垫”，预防楼市或将出现的低迷情况，我预计，未来几个月银行股将跑赢大盘。

一句话：鉴于中国银行业利润创新高，并在两年前大规模融资，中国银行业或终能保持资本充足，抵御中国楼市或现低迷的隐忧。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

◙ Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

 

CCB Explores Overseas Step to Indonesia

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The conservative China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), the nation’s second largest lender, may be preparing to take its first big steps onto the global stage, with an Indonesian deal that looks interesting though a bit risky. Media are reporting that the bank is in talks to buy a stake in closely held PT Bank Maspion Indonesia, whose owners want to sell more than 50 percent. (English article) The news comes not long after reports  that CCB’s bigger rival, ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), was in talks to buy a controlling stake in the Argentine unit of South Africa’s Standard Bank for $700-$800 million, as China’s largest lenders, with encouragement from Beijing, seek to spread their wings beyond their protected home market. (previous post) At first glance the potential CCB deal looks interesting. Indonesia is a developing market with many similar characteristics to China, which would allow CCB to leverage its experience to do business there. What’s more, PT Bank looks very manageable in terms of its size, with a modest value of around $200 million. My major concern comes in terms of regulation. According to the media reports, Indonesia is currently considering legislation that would limit foreign shareholders to holding minority stakes in banks. If PT Bank Maspion were a large lender with an experienced management team, this restriction might be less worrisome. But considering its smaller size, the lack of majority control could severely limit CCB’s ability to manage this new asset if it ended up buying a stake, restricting it to the role of a largely passive investor as its Indonesian management ran the show. That said, perhaps CCB would be better off as a more passive investor for its first major purchase abroad, allowing it to become more familiar with doing business outside China while leaving day-to-day business to locals who know the market better. On the whole, I would weigh in as neutral on this deal, which looks like a relatively risky but manageable first step onto the global stage for CCB.

Bottom line: CCB’s potential purchase of a minority stake in a mid-sized Indonesia lender looks like a risky but manageable first step for the bank onto the global stage.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

◙ Bocom Chases Global I-Bank Business With Big Bucks 交通银行打算花大价钱吸引投行人才

◙ Banks: CCB Bets on Downturn, BOC Keeps Head in Sand 中行依旧高歌猛进，建行趋向保守

New UnionPay Tie-Up Boosts US Presence in IPO Run-up 中国银联携手US Bancorp 未来有望两地上市

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Despite an ongoing high-profile dispute with global credit card leader Visa (V.N), leading Chinese credit and debit card transaction processor UnionPay is pushing ahead with its plans to become a top global player, signing a new tie-up with US Bancorp (NYSE: USB), the fifth largest US bank. (English announcement) The deal, which comes not long after a similar tie-up between UnionPay and Visa’s closest global rival MasterCard (NYSE: MA), will see UnionPay cards accepted by some 1 million US and European merchants who use US Bancorp’s Elavon financial network. The deal should come as a nice boost not only to UnionPay and its stakeholders, which include China’s top banks, but also to hotels, restaurants and other US shops on the Elavon network, which will now be able to accept credit and debit cards from the growing tide of Chinese traveling to the US and Europe for business and pleasure. This deal is the latest in a growing string of similar tie-ups for UnionPay over the last two years, as it looks to set up a global network to rival those of Visa and MasterCard, leveraging the growing spending power of consumers in its home China market where it has a monopoly on credit and debit card transaction processing services. The company is growing rapidly, with a profit of 972 million yuan, or about $150 million, last year, up 30 percent from the previous year. A recent small share of its sales valued the company at more than $11 billion. With growth potential well above that of its major stakeholders, I suspect UnionPay will make a dual IPO in Shanghai and Hong Kong in the next 12 months, as its major shareholders, which include leading banks ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 600398) and China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), look to raise more cash to bolster their shaky balance sheets. Such an offering could be one of the hottest in quite a while, as investors flock to a company with the clearest potential to take advantage of the growing spending clout of Chinese consumers.

Bottom line: UnionPay’s latest tie-up with US Bancorp will give the company a nice boost in the US and Europe, in the run-up to a blockbuster IPO in the next 12 months.

中国银联与全球信用卡领头羊维萨卡(Visa)的高调纠纷尽管还在继续，但这一中国主要的信用卡交易处理商正致力发展成为全球顶级运营商的宏图大计，与美国第五大银行US Bancorp(USB.N) 签署了新的合作协议。前不久，中国银联和Visa的宿敌万事达卡(MA.N)刚刚达成类似的合作协议。该协议将使中国银联卡被大约100万使用US Bancorp金融网络的美欧商户所接受。该协议不仅对中国银联及其股东是个推动，也有利于使用US Bancorp的Elavon结算平台的酒店、宾馆和其他美国店铺，他们将能接受来自中国游客的信用卡和借记卡消费。这也是中国银联过去两年一系列合作项目中的最新一起。中国银联垄断着中国国内的信用卡和借记卡交易处理服务，中国银联希望凭借中国国内消费者日渐增长的消费力为杠杆，建立一个全球性网络，抗衡Visa和万事达卡。中国银联的发展速度很快，去年的利润达到了9.72亿元(约1.5亿美元)，同比增长了30%。由于其增长潜力远远好于主要股东的业绩，我认为，中国银联在未来12个月将寻求在上海和香港进行两地上市，因包括工商银行(601398.SS)(1398.HK)、建设银行(601939.SS) (0939.HK)等在内的主要股东希望筹集更多资本支持自身摇摇欲坠的资产负债表。类似IPO可能会是相当长一段时间内的热门投资之一，因投资者将涌向一个明显有潜力利用中国消费者消费力的公司。

一句话：中国银联和US Bancorp的最新合作将使银联在美欧市场获得良好发展，为未来12个月的重量级IPO作好准备。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

◙ Hilton, Starwood Roll Out Welcome Mat for Chinese 喜达屋、希尔顿迎合中国消费者

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

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Move over, QE II. Chinese banks, unsatisfied with the hundreds of billions of dollars they raised to bolster their balance sheets just two years ago, appear to be gearing up for Capital Raising II, with China Merchants Bank’s (HKEx: 3968 Shanghai: 600036) announcement that it will raise up to $5.4 billion through simultaneous rights offers in Hong Kong and Shanghai. (company announcement; English article) China Merchants is no doubt counting on the short memories of many investors, hoping they will forget that it announced a similar program almost exactly two  years ago to raise a more modest $2.6 billion. So if my math is correct, China Merchants will have raised about $8 billion through these two offerings — a staggering amount when you consider its market cap in Hong Kong is only about $9 billion. Analysts will tell you this new round of CR II, which will undoubtedly be followed by more similar announcements from other major Chinese banks, is designed to meet Beijing’s ever rising capital adequacy ratio requirements as it tries to cool a racing economy that got that way in large part due to excessive state-ordered lending at the height of the global financial crisis. But this latest capital raising by China Merchants is starting to looking increasingly like an outright recapitalization of Chinese banks, which are no doubt woefully unprepared for the economic downturn and resulting piles of bad debt that many believe are coming. The small bit of good news in this is that Beijing, as the majority shareholder of all the major banks, will ultimately foot most of the bill for this ongoing recapitalization. The bad news is that the banks’ minority shareholders will also have to pay part of the bill, and that these stocks are likely to take a beating in the months ahead.

Bottom line: China Merchants announcement of its second major fund-raising in just two years looks like an outright recapitalization, and underscores the shaky position of all Chinese banks.

新一轮量化宽松来了。中国银行业不满足於两年前数千亿美元的集资规模，如今似乎将再次进行融资。中国招商银行<600036.SS><3968.HK>宣布，将在香港和上海发行权利股，筹集54亿美元。招行无疑是寄望於许多投资者健忘，希望他们记不起该行在两年前曾宣布过类似计划，集资26亿美元。所以，如果我计算正确的话，招行两次筹集资金总额约为80亿美元–鉴於招行在香港市值仅约为90亿美元，上述募资规模确实惊人。分析师会告诉你，本次新一轮融资是为满足中国政府不断提高的资本充足率要求，中国其他大型银行无疑亦将宣布类似举措。中国正试图为其经济降温，中国出现这种局面很大程度是因为全球金融危机最严重时，中国政府要求增发贷款过多。但招行本次筹资日益像是中国银行业一次资本重组，中国银行业显然未对经济低迷做好充足准备，许多人认为，大量坏账即将出现。好消息是，中国政府和各银行大股东终将为此次资本重组埋单。坏消息是，银行小股东也将不得不承担一部分费用，这些银行股未来数月或遭重创。

一句话：时隔两年，中国招商银行再次宣布大规模融资，看似一次彻头彻尾的资本重组，凸显中国各银行的问题。

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