Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has launched yet another new China initiative, this time opening a group buying directory, in the latest of a series of moves that has the industry buzzing that the global search leader is reconsidering its high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year. In this latest development, domestic media are reporting that Google has officially launched a new site, Shuihui, to help Web surfers navigate the huge field of group buying sites, led by names like Lashou and 55tuan, that have sprung up in the last two years. (English article) The launch follows Google’s brief announcement last week that Beijing has renewed its Internet China Internet license (English article), and comes 3 months after Google reached a settlement with Chinese regulators that allowed it to continue providing its mapping services in China. (previous post) Google is also aggressively promoting its Android cellphone operating system in China as a lower cost alternative to Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone OS. This new spirit of cooperation between Google and Beijing contrasts sharply with the war of words between the two that ended with Google’s high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year over self-censorship issues. The changing tone has sparked rumors that Google is reconsidering its withdrawal from China’s search market, a move that at first seems unlikely but which could actually be possible due to some key changes in the market since last year’s big dispute. The biggest change is Beijing’s growing unease at Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) domination of China’s search market, with around 80 percent share now and no clear challengers in sight. (previous post) The second major change is that Beijing and Google have had some time to think, and both realize they can benefit from each other if they choose to work together rather than fight. Of course, Google will only come back if Beijing makes a major face-saving concession, probably by lifting many of its strict self-censorship rules. But considering recent developments, I would put Google’s chances for a return to China’s search market at 50-50 in the next 12 months.
Bottom line: Google may be considering a return to China’s search market in light of recent warming of its relations with Beijing, with a 50 percent chance of returning in the next 12 months.
谷歌(GOOG.O)再次出击中国市场，这次是团购搜索分类“谷歌时惠”，加之谷歌近来一系列其他举措，业界不禁猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑去年高调退出中国搜索市场的做法。据中国国内媒体报导，谷歌正式推出新服务“谷歌时惠”，帮助网络用户导航纷繁众多的团购网站。在此之前，谷歌还于上周发布简短声明，称中国政府已经更新了谷歌的中国互联网牌照。而在三个月前，谷歌与中国监管机构达成妥协，谷歌可继续在中国提供地图服务。此外，谷歌还在中国积极推广安卓手机操作系统，作为苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone OS的替代选择。谷歌与中国政府之间崭新的合作精神与去年双方围绕自我过滤问题的激烈交锋形成鲜明对比。合作基调渐趋改变，促使业界猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑其退出中国搜索市场做法。最大的变化在于中国对于百度在中国搜索市场的垄断地位益发不安。百度在国内搜索引擎市场的占有率高达80%，对手们远远被甩在了後面。第二个重大变化是中国政府与谷歌有了一些思考的时间，都意识到双方合则两利，斗则两伤。当然，只有在中国政府作出重大让步，比如放开很多自我审查规定之後，谷歌才会回归。但是考虑到近来事态的发展，我认为谷歌今後12个月回归中国搜索市场的机率为50%。
一句话：鉴于近来与中国政府的关系逐渐升温，谷歌可能正在考虑重回中国搜索市场，未来12个月回归机率大约为50%。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Google Map Impasse Resolved With New JV 谷歌地图风波解决
Just two days after Carol Bartz’s high-profile departure from Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), the inevitable first reports are already emerging that the US search giant is in talks to sell its troublesome 40 percent stake in Alibaba Group. (
The sudden firing of Carol Bartz, the hard-nosed CEO of search giant Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), is all the talk of the tech world today, and I have no doubt the folks at Alibaba Group, who took every opportunity to bad-mouth this woman, are quietly celebrating the news. (
Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (
history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.
The rest of the world may be buzzing about Steve Jobs’ announcement that he will retire as CEO of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), but my attention has been captured by a smaller piece of news that Apple may soon enter the low-cost smartphone business. Apple never discusses its future plans, and accordingly this latest piece of news is only gossip so far, citing two knowledgeable sources saying a low-cost version of the iPhone 4 is now being developed to go head-to-head with a segment of the market now dominated by phones running on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) free Android operating system. (
The central government, unwilling to directly tackle Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) as a monopoly despite its dominant position in the online search market, is instead attacking the company on several smaller fronts in a bid to curtail its influence. In one of two major developments, Chinese media are reporting that the telecoms regulator is preparing new online search regulations that would force all search engines to clearly state which of their results are paid and which are organic. (
Just a day after Tudou’s (Nasdaq: TUDO) disappointing IPO that saw its shares drop 12 percent on their trading debut (
While the rest of the world buzzes about Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) blockbuster deal to buy Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), eyes in China are more focused on a worrisome report regarding struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), which once dominated the Chinese market but is rapidly losing share to up-and-comers like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). According to the report, a growing number of Chinese sellers are refusing to accept shipments of Nokia phones, in what looks like a rebellion after years of being bullied by Nokia when it dominated both the China and global markets. (
the year, even as gross margins for all handsets fell sharply on its aggressive smartphone pricing. A company source previously told me ZTE hopes to sell $600 million worth of smartphones in the US this year alone (
