Tag Archives: China Mobile

China Mobile latest Business & Financial news from Doug Young, the Expert on Chinese Companies, (former Journalist and Chief editor at Reuters in Asia)

Unicom’s Sputtering 3G: Blame It On the Handsets 联通幡然醒悟 借低价手机扩张3G市场

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Despite receiving numerous advantages from Beijing in China’s fledgling 3G market, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; HKEx: CHU) has shown disappointingly slow progress in boosting its share in the space and now we may know why: a shortage of low-cost handsets. That’s what domestic media are reporting, with Unicom preparing to buy up to 8 million smartphones costing under 1,000 yuan, or about $150 each, in a bid to boost its share in the market. (Chinese article) A quick look at the numbers shows that Unicom has made little or no progress in terms of boosting its 3G market share in the last 4 months. It owned 30 percent of the market in April, compared to 45 percent for the nation’s dominant carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) and 25 percent for China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). (previous post) Fast forward to August, when Unicom’s share remained stuck at 30 percent, while China Mobile’s dropped 2 percentage points to 43 percent, all of which was picked up by China Telecom, whose share rose to 27 percent. (English article) In my view, blaming its lack of progress on lack of low-cost handsets is a lame excuse. Unicom’s 3G network is technically superior to both of its rivals’, supported by a much wider array of handsets than those available to 3G subscribers of China Mobile or China Telecom. The fact that Unicom chose to focus on high-end customers in its 3G campaign, relying especially heavily on Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) trendy but costly iPhone, shows a clear lack of foresight by the company, which should have realized that the vast majority of Chinese living outside the wealthiest cities like Beijing and Shanghai may not want to spend 3,000 yuan or more for 3G handsets. I applaud Unicom for finally realizing its mistake and moving to rectify it with a mass purchase of lower-cost phones. But such a fundamental miscalculation looks a bit worrisome, especially as Unicom’s technological advantage could end as soon as next year as China Mobile trials and prepares for the commercial launch of a solid 4G product and China Telecom continues its aggressive 3G promotion.

Bottom line: Unicom’s failure to anticipate demand for low-cost 3G handsets reflects a lack of vision, which will undermine the company’s longer term prospects.

在中国刚刚起步的3G市场，中国联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)从政府那儿得到数不清的好处，但它在提高市场份额方面却显出令人失望的迟缓，现在，我们或许已经知道其中缘由了：缺乏低成本手机。根据国内媒体报导，为扩大市场份额，联通准备采购800万部千元以下的智能手机。光看这一数字就知道，联通在过去四个月中几乎未能在抢占3G市场份额方面取得任何进展。今年4月，联通占有30%的3G市场份额，中国移动(0941.HK; CHL.N)和中国电信(CHA.N)分别为45%和25%。到了8月份，联通的市场份额未变，中国移动则下滑两个百分点，至43%，中国电信则升至27%。在我看来，将进展迟缓归咎于缺乏低成本手机是个非常蹩脚的借口。联通的3G网络在技术上要优于竞争对手，相比中国移动或中国电信的3G用户，联通提供了更多样化的手机选择。但联通选择把高端客户，特别是依赖苹果iPhone手机的人，作为其扩张3G市场的重点，这个事实只能说明联通缺乏远见。联通本应意识到，那些不在北京、上海等一线城市生活的广大中国民众或许不愿花3,000多块钱买个3G手机。联通总算能意识到错误，并通过大量采购低成本手机的亡羊补牢之举，令我感到庆幸。但这麽低级的一个判断失误着实令人担心，尤其考虑到联通的技术优势可能会最早在明年终结，届时中国移动或在明年尝试并准备推出商业化的4G产品，中国电信也会继续其3G网络的推广。

一句话：中国联通未能预见到低成本3G手机的巨大需求，说明缺乏远见，而这一缺陷将有损联通的长远前景。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

◙  Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

Anti-Monopoly Regulator Makes Poor Choice in Chasing China Telecom 中国反垄断初试牛刀 选错对象

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After a couple of years of a low-key approach and not doing much, China’s anti-monopoly regulator is finally getting to work by investigating China Telecom’s (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) dominance in the country’s broadband market. I’ll admit this is an interesting case, and have to applaud the regulator for following up on complaints by names like China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Tietong that China Telecom unfairly uses its dominant position to keep others out of the market. (English article; Chinese article) But frankly speaking, the regulator has chosen the wrong case to test out its powers as enforcer of fair market competition. China Telecom certainly has a dominant position in broadband, drawing on its legacy wired networks to provide services to the companies and consumers, especially in the southern China where it has the most extensive networks. But there are many indications that more competition is coming, and indeed already exists. Unicom itself already has significant fixed-line broadband representation in the northern China, the result of a decade-old split that saw the nation’s previous wired-line phone monopoly split up and its northern networks given to Unicom and the southern ones to China Telecom. Furthermore, China Mobile (HKEx: CHL) is on a current campaign to build extensive wi-fi service, another form of broadband, with plans to build 1 million hot spots in the next 3 years (previous post). China’s current drive to consolidate its cable TV operators should produce yet another major wired broadband player. With all these alternatives in the market, not to mention China Mobile’s 4G network that could launch commercial service as soon as next year, it will be hard for the regulator to determine that China Telecom has a monopoly on broadband service. I do applaud the regulator for taking on this difficult case, but instead it should focus on speeding up approval for YUM Brands’ (NYSE: YUM) pending purchase of hot pot chain Little Sheep (HKEx: 968), announced 5 months ago (previous post), which has no monopolistic implications but has some worried the deal could be vetoed on nationalistic grounds.

Bottom line: China’s anti-monopoly regulator has made a bad choice in chasing China Telecom’s broadband dominance in its first tough case.

中国《反垄断法》出台三年来，相关部委一直低调行事且作为有限，如今终於“初试牛刀”，对主导国内宽带接入市场的中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>展开反垄断调查。我承认这很有趣，不得不为监管机构回应中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国铁通的抱怨鼓掌。这些电信商称，中国电信不公平利用其宽带市场主导地位，试图排挤其它竞争对手。但坦白地说，监管机构希望推动市场公平竞争，但初试牛刀却选错对象。中国电信凭借已有的有线网络，向各大公司和消费者提供服务，确实在宽带接入市场占主导地位，尤其是在中国电信网络覆盖很广的南方地区。但许多迹象表明，该领域竞争已经展开，并即将激烈化。联通占有中国北方固话宽带较大份额。这是原中国电信十年前南北分拆的结果。此外，中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>正在拓展WiFi服务（宽带的另一种形式），计划未来三年在全国增加100万个WiFi热点。中国目前整合有线电视运营商的行动，也将制造另一个有线宽带竞争者，更别提中国移动4G网络最早明年可能实现商用。宽带市场拥有上述替代选择，监管者很难断定，中国电信垄断国内宽带服务。我的确要为监管机构处理这一棘手问题叫好，但他们更应加速百胜集团<YUM.N>收购小肥羊<0968.HK>的审批，这笔交易并无垄断迹象，但一些人担忧，该交易或因民族主义原因而被否决。

一句话：中国监管机构就宽带接入问题，对中国电信进行反垄断调查，但初试牛刀却选错对象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Wi-Fi Play Misguided 中移动：百万WiFi热点？

◙ China Telecom Joins Hot Spot Frenzy Wifi热潮兴起 中国电信与中国移动谁将胜出？

◙ YUM and Little Sheep – A Sweet Match If China Approves 美国百胜购小肥羊：甜蜜姻缘还靠中国政府成全

China Mobile: Where’s the 3G iPhone? 中移动4G网络稳步推进 3G版iPhone或遇阻

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A flurry of new reports about China Mobile’s (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) highly anticipated 4G network came out toward the end of last week, with news of expanded trials and a near-certain tie-up with Apple (Nasdaq: APPL) for an iPhone that will run on the network’s homegrown Chinese technology. But perhaps more interesting was WASN’T in the reports, namely any updates on China Mobile’s talks to develop an iPhone for its struggling 3G network, also based on a Chinese technology standard. One of the two reports late last week cites China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou saying his company has reached an agreement with Apple to work together on an iPhone for the company’s 4G mobile network using a technology called TD-LTE, which is now in advanced trial stages. (Chinese article) A separate article says China Mobile also plans to soon wrap up its first big-scale trials for TD-LTE in six major cities, with plans to start data card trials by the end of the year. (English article) If all goes according to plan, it looks like we could see China Mobile launch serious commercial trials for this 4G network by the end of next year, with full commercial service as soon as 2013 if the telecoms regulator agrees. That’s all fine and good for people looking ahead to 2013, but what’s missing here is any update from the talkative Wang on current talks to build an iPhone for China Mobile’s struggling 3G network, based on a problematic technology called TD-SCDMA. Reports have been rife for a while that China Mobile was close to a deal for a 3G iPhone, after it confirmed last year that such talks were taking place. But Wang’s latest silence looks like either he’s learned to keep quiet on sensitive matters, or more likely the 3G iPhone talks have hit a stumbling block, perhaps due to technology issues. If that’s the case, China Mobile and its stagnant bottom line may have to wait a while still for an iPhone that could bring new life to its 3G and 4G businesses.

Bottom line: China Mobile is making steady progress on its 4G network, but its chairman’s recent silence means talks for a 3G iPhone may have hit a stumbling block.

有报导称，中国移动将扩大4G网络测试，几乎可以确定将与苹果<APPL.O>合作，推适用於中移动自主研发网络的iPhone。但更有意思的是报导没有提及的内容，即有关中移动引进适用其TD-SCDMA网络的3G版iPhone的谈判。上周有报导援引中移动董事长王建宙的说法称，中移动与苹果达成合作协议，将针对中移动的TD-LTE网络推出新款iPhone。另有一篇文章称，中移动还计划尽快结束在六大城市对TD-LTE网络的大规模测试，拟在今年年底前开始数据卡测试。如果一切按计划顺利进行，中移动似乎到明年底前将正式开始TD-LTE网络的商用，如果得到监管部门的批准，最早2013年起将提供全面商用服务。这对於期待4G网络的人来说是好消息，但一向健谈的王建宙却对适用TD-SCDMA网络的iPhone谈判沉默。去年中移动确认在同苹果进行有关引进3G版iPhone的谈判後，有关协议接近达成的报导曾一度甚嚣尘上。但从王建宙近期三缄其口来看，要麽他学会了对敏感问题保持沉默，或者更可能的情况是，3G版iPhone谈判遇阻，很可能是由於技术问题。如果是这样，中移动或需等待一款iPhone问世，为其3G和4G业务带来新的活力，改善其盈利停滞状态。

一句话：中移动在4G网络方面取得稳步进展，但其董事长王建宙近期在3G版iPhone谈判上的沉默表明相关谈判或遇阻。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

◙ Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

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After a few weeks of relative quiet for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in China, there’s new buzz in the telecoms sector that China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) is set to start offering the iPhone 5 in October, ending months of speculation about the move. (Chinese article) The Chinese media reports are a bit unclear about whether the smallest of China’s 3 telcos has actually signed a deal with Apple, only saying China Telecom will offer the iPhone 5 starting in October and that vendors are already placing orders for the popular smartphone. That does seem to imply that the two sides have signed a deal, although I would expect an official announcement from China Telecom if that was the case, as clearly this is news it would want to publicize as part of its aggressive drive to build up its fledgling 3G business. Regardless of the actual situation, it does appear that China Telecom will start to offer iPhone service plans by October or November at the latest, which should give it a brief momentum boost over its two chief rivals, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and industry titan China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHT) as the 3 jostle for share in China’s 2-year-old 3G market. I use the word “brief” because China Telecom will probably only have a 2 or 3 months to bask in its new iPhone deal before China Mobile announces a bigger new deal to offer an iPhone that can work on its own 3G network, based on a homegrown Chinese technology called TD-SCDMA. (previous post) Such a deal has been rumored for months and appears to be near, which should help China Mobile take back some of the momentum it has lost over the last 2 years to China Telecom and Unicom, which already offers the iPhone. Of course, the winner in all this will be Apple itself, which will be able to use all 3 of China’s telcos to offer its iPhones that enjoy huge popularity in China — the world’s largest mobile market with more than 900 million subscribers. But among the carriers themselves, look for China Telecom to enjoy some momentum through the end of this year, which it will rapidly lose in 2012 after China Mobile signs its own iPhone deal.

Bottom line: China Telecom’s imminent deal with Apple to offer iPhones for its 3G network will give it new momentum over its rivals that will last through the end of the year.

围绕苹果(AAPL.O)的消息在中国刚相对平静了几周，通信业内又传出中国电信(0728.HK)(CHA.N)将于10月率先在中国推出iPhone 5的消息，结束此前几个月的坊间猜测。中国媒体称，还不清楚中国电信是否已经确实与苹果签订了有关协议，只是说中国电信将从10月开始提供iPhone 5， 经销商已经下单采购。这看似意味着双方已经签约，不过我预计若确有此事，中国电信会发布正式公告。这明显是中国电信想对外散布消息，也是希望推广其3G业务努力的一部分。无论实际情况如何，中国电信看似确实要在10月或最晚11月开始推出iPhone服务计划。这无疑在中国电信在3G领域挑战中国联通和中国移动过程中，带来短时的提振。我说“短时”是因为中国电信可能只会赢得两三个月的时间，享有拓展iPhone业务的领跑优势，随後中国移动可能会宣布更大规模基于其3G标准–TD-SCDMA网络的iPhone推广计划。关于中移动的传闻已经有几个月，现在似乎已经快要接近现实了，这将帮助中移动收复过去两年流失到中国电信和中国联通的部分失地。无疑，苹果将是上述竞争的最终获益者，能够利用中国全部三家电信公司的渠道售卖iPhone，而苹果的iPhone产品在拥有逾九亿用户的全球第一大移动通讯市场享有极高人气。但是，从各家中国电信运营商来看，中国电信在年底前会享受些许成长助力，在明年中国移动签约自己的iPhone之後，中国电信在这方面的优势将迅速消退。

一句话：中国电信即将签约苹果，提供用于其自身3G网络的iPhone业务启动在即，将在移动通讯市场竞争中获得新的动能，但好光景也许只能维持到年底。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

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My latest glance at the morning headlines is reconfirming for me why longtime China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) Chairman Wang Jianzhou needs to step down, the sooner the better, and hand over control of the company to bolder new leadership that can bring some excitement back to this company. At first glance, his comments that China Mobile would face difficulty but could still reach its target of 50 million 3G subscribers this year looks relatively bold and aggressive (Chinese article), in contrast to a mostly conservative approach that caused the company to become a slow- or no-growth giant during his tenure. But then I did some math, which just shows how nothing about Wang has changed. China Mobile’s 3G network, based on a homegrown standard called TD-SCDMA, had 37.6 million subscribers at the end of July, up about 17 million from the beginning of the year. That means the company has added an average of 2.4 million 3G subscribers per month, with the numbers clearly accelerating in recent months. So doing the math, if it only continues to add subscribers at the same rate for the last 5 months of the year, it would just reach the 50 million subscriber mark. Clearly Wang is not taking any chances here, giving the most conservative forecast possible even though his company is clearly accelerating its 3G promotions, with a wide array of new handsets coming into the market and a deal to offer a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone likely by the end of this year (previous post). With all of those factors working in its favor, Wang’s continued quoting of the 50 million figure, which was given at the beginning of this year and is so obviously attainable, is just the latest indication that he needs to leave China Mobile and let a younger, more aggressive generation of leaders bring back some excitement to the company. The Chinese government has already promoted two younger leaders to key positions in the clearest indication of Wang’s coming retirement (previous post), which should be strongly welcomed by shareholders when it finally comes.

Bottom line: China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou’s latest conservative comments underscore that he needs to retire soon and leave his company to a new generation of more aggressive leaders.

早上看到的媒体报导再次让我确信，中国移动董事长王建宙为何需要让位了，而且是越早越好，将公司的控制权交给更具魄力的新领导能够给这家公司带来新气象。他表示中国移动将面临困难，但今年仍有可能实现5,000万3G用户的目标。乍看之下，与多数时候采取的保守举动相比，他的讲话还算比较大胆和激进。但是，我随後做了些简单计算，发现王建宙的讲话仍然是了无新意。截止到7月底，中国移动基于本土TD-SCDMA标准的3G网络用户为3,760万，较年初增长了大约1,700万。这意味着公司每个月增加了240万3G用户，实际上3G用户数在最近几个月出现了加速增长态势。据此计算可知，如果以过去五个月的用户增长率计算，今年年底将正好达到5,000万。很显然，王建宙没有给出任何意外之喜，只是提供了可以做出的最保守估计，根本没有考虑中国移动正在加大3G网络促销力度，包括更多新型手机上市，以及根据协议很可能在年底推出基于TD-SCDMA网络的苹果iPhone手机。在坐拥这麽多有利条件的情况下，王建宙仍和年初一样，继续提5,000万这个显而易见很容易实现的目标，无意说明他到了该离开中国移动的时候了，需要让位于年富力强的一代公司领导上台，给公司带来一些新的成长动力。中国政府已经提拔了两位年轻一些的领导到中国移动担任要职，这是王建宙行将退休的最明确信号。当一切最终成真时候，定能受到股东的热烈欢迎。

一句话：中国移动董事长王建宙最近的保守言论凸显他尽早退休的必要性，将公司交予新一代更富进取心的领导。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

Tidbits: UMPay, Giant Interactive, China Telecom

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Today marks the launch of a new item consisting of occasional tidbits that aren’t big enough for individual articles but look interesting nonetheless, along with a thought or two on what it all means.

— UMPay: Chinese media are reporting that this joint venture between industry powerhouses China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) is applying for a license to provide electronic payment services. (English article) Given the two venture partners’ dominant position in both of their spaces, such a venture could quickly become a major player, threatening smaller e-payments companies as well as bigger ones like Alibaba’s Alipay.

— Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA): The company has announced a payout date of September 9 for its massive one-time dividend of $3 per share, which amounts to a whopping 36 percent of its latest closing share price. (company announcement) Its stock has risen about 50 cents a share since it announced the dividend early this month, clearly far less than the size of the dividend. I’ll be watching closely to see how the shares trade on September 12, after the dividend is paid.

— China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA): Chinese media report the company recently launched a tender for more than 3 million set-top boxes — the clearest sign yet that China’s leading fixed-line carrier is close to a major launch for a video-on-demand type service that it has long talked about but has yet to appear. (English article) Such a service could provide a major source of new income, as the company struggles with steady declines for its fixed-line phone business.

News Digest: August 31, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 31. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ UnionPay, China Mobile‘s (HKEx: 941) UMPay Aims For Payment License by 2011 (English article)

◙ Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Buys $66.4 Million Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) Stake (English article)

◙ ZTE (HKEx: 763) Records 21.52% Increase in Revenue to RMB37.3 Bln in H1 (Businesswire)

◙ Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) Announces Date of Sept 12 for Special Cash Dividend (PRNewswire)

◙ Group Buying Sites Evading More Than 500 Mln Yuan in Taxes – Report (Chinese article)

China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

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With its new top management now firmly running the show, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) continues to embrace its previously neglected 3G network, preparing to roll out a large new array of handsets that will work on the system using a homegrown mobile standard. Local media are reporting that China Mobile is preparing to launch some 30 new 3G handsets for its TD-SCDMA system, covering a wide range of price-points and models from nearly every major manufacturer, including Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and BlackBerry (Toronto: RIM), as well as homegrown players ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. (English article) Of course, the big piece still missing is a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, but all indications point to introduction of an iPhone that can work on China Mobile’s 3G system by the end of the year. (previous post) As its 3G push picks up momentum, look for the balance in China’s young 3G market to swing back in China Mobile’s direction, as it retakes share from rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). Separately on the telecoms front, Nokia has come out and confessed that it is suffering from “channel issues” in China, following media reports earlier this month that its China distributors were rebelling en masse by refusing to sell its increasingly unpopular models after years of bullying. (Chinese article) According to this  latest report, Nokia forced large volumes of its phones on distributors in the first quarter of this year, allowing it to post 30 percent shipment growth in China for the period. But many of those phones couldn’t compete with more popular models, especially in the smartphone space, causing inventories to balloon and distributors to refuse to accept more handsets. As a result, Nokia’s China shipments tumbled 41 percent in the second quarter. Clearly the company is set for more stormy times ahead in China, at least until it comes out with its highly-anticipated new line of smartphones later this year based on Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Mango operating system.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s new 3G push will help it grab market share from rivals, while Nokia will continue to slide in China at least until it rolls out its new Mango-based smartphones.

中国移动(0941.HK; CHL.N)在新的管理层全力指挥下，继续向先前忽略的3G网络发力，准备扎堆推出一系列采用本土3G标准的新款手机。据国内媒体报导，中移动准备发布高、中、低档总数约30款的TD-SCDMA新机型，分别出自诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)、三星电子(005930.KS)、黑莓制造商Research In Motion(RIMM.O)及本土企业中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)与华为等厂商。当然，仍然缺少重量级产品–TD版的苹果iPhone，但所有迹象都表明：适用于中国移动3G网络的TD版iPhone今年年底前可能推出。随着中移动突击发展3G网络，中国诞生不久的3G格局可能会向中移动倾斜，因它可能会从竞争对手中国联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)与中国电信(0728.HK; CHA.N)中抢回一些市场份额。另外，在手机制造商方面，诺基亚已经承认在中国市场“渠道”环节出问题。此前媒体报导称，由于中国渠道商不愿出售诺基亚越来越受不欢迎的机型，诺基亚开始遭遇集体“反水”。根据最新报导，诺基亚今年第一季度在向渠道商大量压货的情况下，手机出货量有不错表现，录得30%的同比增长。但很多诺基亚机型无法与对手竞争，尤其是在智能手机领域，造成库存高企，渠道商拒绝接受更多现货。结果，诺基亚第二季度在中国的手机出货量同比大跌41%。显然，诺基亚未来在中国还要面临很多困难，至少今年稍晚推出搭载微软最新的Mango操作系统的新产品系列前，道路会很坎坷。

一句话：中移动在3G领域再发力，有助于帮助它从竞争对手手中夺回一些市场份额；诺基亚近期在华业绩仍会下滑，至少其Mango系统新机推出前难改颓势。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

Spreadtrum Takes Smart Gamble on China 3G

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Having survived an attack by short-sellers, cellphone chip designer Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) is broadening its smart move into smartphones, this time by taking a big gamble on TD-SCDMA, the homegrown third-generation (3G) mobile standard being developed and promoted by China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). Many will recall that this company made headlines earlier this year when short sellers attacked it over questions about its inventory — questions the company later successfully fended off. (previous post) In the meantime, the company said it was placing its bets for the future on smartphones (previous post), which have shown huge growth potential as celllphones become more and more like wireless computing devices. In the latest wrinkle, the company has disclosed that it now controls more than half of the market for chipsets used in smartphones that run on TD-SCDMA, the homegrown Chinese 3G wireless standard being used by China Mobile. (company announcement) If you had asked me 3 months ago what I thought about this, I would have said that Spreadtrum was wasting its time and money, as China Mobile was showing little interest in promoting its 3G service, which many considered unreliable due to the untested nature of the technology. But in just the last two months, China Mobile has suddenly shown a new interest in promoting the service, making Spreadtrum’s bet suddenly look much better. Its investment in TD-SCDMA will also inevitably give it a headstart in developing chipsets for the standard’s 4G successor, TD-LTE, which China Mobile is actively developing and could launch commercially as soon as next year. Many carriers outside China are also taking a serious look at TD-LTE, which could further boost the market for this standard. Of course, other chipset makers will probably see what’s happening and jump on the TD bandwagon, but Spreadtrum’s early entry into this space should give it a clear advantage for at least the next 1-2 years.

Bottom line: Spreadtrum’s aggressive push into TD-SCDMA looks like a smart move in light of China Mobile’s recent promotion of its 3G service.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Spreadtrum On Cusp of Putting Out Short-Seller Fire 展讯力抗卖空方

◙ Spreadtrum Steps Up Smart Drive 展讯通信向智能手机市场迈出精明一步

China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

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China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), under new leadership as long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou gets set to retire, is showing signs of new life on several fronts, including some of its best earnings in quite a while. The company reported its second-quarter profit rose 7 percent — a figure that might look boring by anyone else’s standards but marks a sharp improvement for a company that has reported low single-digit growth and even one decline for most of the past three years. (English article) The company credited the growth to revenue from stronger data services traffic, an area that China Mobile had neglected in the last two years after failing to win a 3G license based on globally developed technology and instead being forced to use a homegrown standard. After those two years of denial, China Mobile seems to finally be not only facing its less-than-ideal 3G reality but also embracing it, pushing hard for a deal to develop and offer a version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone based on its homegrown 3G standard. After welcoming Apple’s COO Tim Cook to its Beijing headquarters in June as part of those talks (previous post), China Mobile disclosed last week that none other than Apple chief Steve Jobs himself has joined the negotiations, indicating a deal is likely in the next 1-2 months and the company could offer its own 3G iPhones by the end of the year. Wang is also keeping up China Mobile’s pressure on the telecoms regulator to issue 4G licenses sooner rather than later, saying the company’s 4G trial networks in 6 major Chinese cities could be ready for commercialization by next year. (Chinese article) The commercial launch of such 4G service, which uses more reliable technology than China Mobile’s 3G network, would bring even more momentum back to China Mobile at the expense of smaller rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), and if all goes according to plan I could easily see China Mobile returning to double-digit profit growth as soon as the end of this year.

Bottom line: China Mobile is rapidly regaining  momentum under its new leadership, and could easily return to double-digit profit growth by the end of this year.

中国移动(0941.HK)董事长王建宙即将退休，在新领导层带领下，中移动在各方面显露出新成长迹象，包括近期财报表现出色。中移动财报显示，其第二季度利润同比增长约7%，这在其它公司看来或许表现平平，但过去三年中多数时候，中移动一直以个位数低幅增长，甚至出现一次亏损，因此这一增幅标志着其经营状况大幅改观。中移动将此归功于数据服务流量增加，中移动在两年前的3G牌照颁发中仅取得中国自主研发的TD-SCDMA标准後，一直未对数据服务领域给予重视。两年之後，中移动似乎终于面对并接受其差强人意的3G现实并积极应对，正努力争取达成协议，提供基于TD-SCDMA标准的苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone。苹果首席运营官库克（Tim Cook）6月到访中移动北京总部谈判，中移动上周披露，苹果首席执行官乔布斯亲自参与谈判，表明协议或在1-2个月内完成，中移动年底前或推出TD-SCDMA版3G iPhone。王建宙还将继续敦促工信部尽早发放4G牌照，称中移动在六大城市的TD-LTE试点网络预计明年可以实现商用。由于中国移动的4G技术比现有的3G技术可靠，服务商用化启动，4G的商用将对中移动更为有利，但代价是牺牲中国联通(0762.HK, CHU.N)和中国电信(0728.HK, CHA.N)等规模较小的竞争对手，如果一切依中移动的计划推进，我认为，中移动在年底前将轻而易举地恢复利润两位数增长。

一句话：中国移动在新管理层带领下，将迅速夺回市场份额，年底前将轻而易举重返利润两位数增长。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

◙ Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

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After years of stagnanation under charismatic but otherwise uninspired longtime Chairman Wang Jianzhou, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) seems to finally be regaining some of its long-lost excitement with buzz of Wang’s imminent departure and the signing of a new deal to sell Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone. In the latest development on the Apple front, Chinese media are reporting that China Mobile’s Beijing subsidiary has quietly added the iPhone 4 to the list of models it will support for international roaming plans. (Chinese article) While use of unauthorized iPhones on China Mobile’s 2G network has been common ever since the iPhone first debuted, this official support for Apple could indicate that China Mobile may be very close to striking a deal to offer official iPhone service that can run on its 3G network using homegrown Chinese technology. The company announced last year it was in such talks with Apple, and a low-key visit to its headquarters in June by Apple COO Tim Cook fueled speculation that a deal could be near. (previous post) The talk alone has helped China Mobile’s languishing stock to regain some of the momentum it has lost over the last few years to more nimble rivals China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), which also have the advantage of using better technology in their 3G networks. Adding to the growing excitement around China Mobile’s “rebirth”, Chinese media are reporting that Xi Guohua, who recently took over the role of secretary of China Mobile’s state-run parent from Wang Jianzhou (previous post), has now assumed the title of vice chairman at the listed company as well. (Chinese article) Xi’s rapid rise, coupled with last year’s elevation of another up-and-comer, Li Yue, to president of the listed China Mobile, seem to indicate that Wang’s departure from the company could be imminent, bringing in much-needed new blood and fresh ideas to the top of this cash-rich but otherwise stagnant telecoms giant.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s imminent arrival of top new leadership and an iPhone deal will breath new life into the company’s business and also its stock, following years of stagnation.

中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>在经历了多年发展迟滞後似乎终於将出现一些可喜的变化，有传言称，王建宙即将离任，且中移动将与苹果<AAPL.O>签署销售iPhone手机的协议。关於中移动与苹果的最新合作进展，据中国媒体报导，北京移动悄然将iPhone 4列入了促销活动范围。尽管自iPhone上市以来，在中移动2G网络上使用未被授权的iPhone手机相当普遍，但这种对苹果手机的正式支持或许意味着，中移动与苹果可能接近达成协议，在其3G网络上提供iPhone服务。中移动去年曾宣布，公司正与苹果公司就相关合作进行谈判，而苹果首席运营官库克(Tim Cook)6月份低调访问中移动总部的消息也加剧了这一传闻。仅传言本身就帮助中移动疲软的股价重获动力，中移动在过去几年的增长势头不及中国联通< 0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>。另外，据中国媒体报导，刚接任中移动母公司党组书记不久的奚国华已被任命为中移动上市公司副董事长。奚国华的快速晋升以及去年升任中移动上市公司总裁李跃的提升似乎说明，王建宙可能即将离任，这将为中移动高层带来亟需的新鲜血液和想法。

一句话：经过数年的发展迟滞後，中移动即将出现的高层变动以及与苹果的协议将为该公司业务和股价带来新的活力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹