The first quiet signs have emerged that a price war is building in China’s chilly auto market, with Ford (NYSE: F) disclosing that it’s coming under pricing pressure as sales slow under economic cooling measures from Beijing. (English article) The comments from Ford’s Asia chief at a recent US event were very low key, only saying the company has seen pricing pressure in the last 3-4 months. He didn’t give any numbers, but I’ve been in the news business long enough to know that executives don’t usually make this kind of comment unless they want to brace investors for disappointment or worse. After more than a year of blistering growth of 50 percent or more, fueled in large part by incentives from Beijing, China’s auto market has slowed considerably in the last few months to low single-digit growth and even contraction. Unit auto sales were up an anemic 2 percent in July (English article), but that number says nothing about prices, which I suspect are down 5-10 percent from the previous year as many larger cities limit new buying to ease congestion. The pressure is likely to intensify in the coming year, as billions of dollars in spending on new capacity announced during the boom period start to come online. Smart players like General Motors (NYSE: GM) are bracing themselves for the coming China winter by exporting their China models and designs to other emerging markets and by developing new brands aimed at smaller cities where the slowdown won’t be as big. GM officially launched its made-in-China Baojun brand just last week (English article), and said earlier this week it will use made-in-China kits to build a locally developed minivan in India. (English article) But while GM and its China partner, SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) have the resources to make such protective moves, other domestic players like BYD (HKEx: 1211) and Geely (HKEx: 165) look much more vulnerable, and are likely to see their profits drop sharply in the months ahead or even sink into the loss column.
Bottom line: Ford’s recent comments indicate prices are dropping in China’s overheated car market, with the pressure likely to continue for at least the next year.
有初步迹象表明中国汽车市场将打响价格战，汽车巨头福特(F.N)称感受到定价压力，因中国旨在令经济降温的措施导致汽车销售放缓。福特负责亚太业务的负责人此番表态相当平和，只是说过去三四个月中感受到了定价压力。他未提供数据，但我在媒体界多年，深知企业高管很少会作这样的表态，除非他们希望投资者作好悲观准备。去年得益于政府刺激措施，中国汽车市场增速至少50%，而过去几个月则明显速度放缓，甚至到了萎缩的地步。7月汽车销量增长2%，但这根本没有反映出价格因素，我推测汽车价格同比下降了5-10%，因为许多大城市出台限购令，以解决道路拥堵。未来一年车市价格压力可能加深，因厂商扩充产能的投资将到位。象通用汽车(GM.N)这样精明的厂商已经相应作了调整，将在中国生产车型和设计向其他新兴市场推广，并面向小城市开发新的品牌，因为这些城市的汽车销售放缓程度没那麽严重。通用上周刚刚正式推出“中国制造”的品牌“宝骏”，且本周稍早称，将对在中国设计的小型货车进行改造，在印度生产和销售。虽然通用与上汽(600104.SS: 行情)有足够资源采取这类自我保护性举措，但其他国内汽车厂商，譬如比亚迪(1211.HK)和吉利(0175.HK)则更容易受到冲击，未来数月利润可能大幅下降，甚至可能出现亏损。
一句话：福特近期言论意味着，中国汽车售价将呈下滑，这样的压力可能至少在未来一年中将持续。
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