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Latest News about Apple in China, financial news and Business analysis overview of the Chinese high Tech market expert based in China : Doug Young

Ericsson, ZTE Spat May be Near Resolution 爱立信与中兴的官司尘埃落定？

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Eight months after the news first broke, we’re finally getting a little more color on the potentially devastating lawsuit filed against telecoms equipment and cellphone maker ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) by global rival Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), and things don’t look as bad as they did initially. Few details were given when Ericsson filed the suit in Britain back in April, but the action had the potential to halt ZTE’s sales in major European markets. (previous post) ZTE fired back with a meaningless lawsuit filed in China a short time later, but both companies have been largely mute on the subject since then. But now Chinese media are reporting an Ericsson executive attending an event in Beijing made some brief remarks on the matter in response to a question, and it looks like this whole issue is simply a question of money. (English article) That’s quite an important distinction, as companies that file such lawsuits usually do so with one of two objectives in mind. Companies like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) usually file their IP lawsuits to force a competitor to stop making a product altogether. But in many other instances, which appears to be the case with Ericsson vs ZTE, the company filing suit simply wants another company to pay royalties by forcing the offending company to legally license its technology. If that’s the case here, then I would expect a resolution of this dispute in the near future. Of course, any new licensing deal will hurt ZTE, whose low costs are one of its chief advantages, by driving up those costs. But in the longer term, ZTE will be able to continue selling its products in Europe and elsewhere without interruption, and the company can return to competing against Ericsson in the marketplace rather than in the courtroom.

Bottom line: New remarks from Ericsson suggest its lawsuit against ZTE is all about licensing and money, and a resolution could soon be forthcoming.

从纠纷一开始到现在已有八个月之久，现在我们终于对此事有了多一些了解。电信设备商爱立信(ERICb.ST)此前在欧洲一纸诉状将中兴通讯(0763.HK; 000063.SZ)告上法庭，该诉讼看起来可能给中兴致命重创，不过目前状况看起来并没有当初那麽差。4月份，爱立信在英国起诉中兴通讯，外界对相关细节知之甚少。但诉讼有可能阻止中兴通讯在主要欧洲市场的销售。中兴通讯很快就予以回敬，在中国对爱立信提起诉讼。此後，两家公司在这个问题上双方基本沉默不语。但是中国媒体近期报导，一名在北京参加活动的爱立信高管在回答提问时此事做了简短的评论，看起来整个事情仅仅是钱的问题。这是一个非常重要的分界线。企业提起此类诉讼时，除了钱的目的外，往往希望一箭双雕。苹果(AAPL.O)等公司发起专利诉讼通常是为了迫使竞争对手停止产品生产。但更多情况下，一家企业提起诉讼通常是为了迫使另一家企业购买技术许可，支付专利费，爱立信与中兴通讯的纠纷似乎就属这种情况。如果事实确实如此，我预计近期两家公司应该就能解决纠纷。当然，任何新的许可协议都有损中兴通讯，因低成本是它的主要优势之一。但从长远一些来看，中兴通讯可以在欧洲等地继续产品销售工作，继续与爱立信同台竞争，而非仅仅局限于法庭之上。

一句话：爱立信高管最近的表态暗示，爱立信与中兴通讯的官司仅仅属于授权许可与钱的问题，纠纷不久应该就能尘埃落定。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ZTE Pressures Ericsson With China Suit — NOT 中兴反诉爱立信

◙ Huawei, ZTE Spat Heats Up 华为中兴之争升级

◙ ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

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With its new top management now firmly running the show, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) continues to embrace its previously neglected 3G network, preparing to roll out a large new array of handsets that will work on the system using a homegrown mobile standard. Local media are reporting that China Mobile is preparing to launch some 30 new 3G handsets for its TD-SCDMA system, covering a wide range of price-points and models from nearly every major manufacturer, including Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and BlackBerry (Toronto: RIM), as well as homegrown players ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. (English article) Of course, the big piece still missing is a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, but all indications point to introduction of an iPhone that can work on China Mobile’s 3G system by the end of the year. (previous post) As its 3G push picks up momentum, look for the balance in China’s young 3G market to swing back in China Mobile’s direction, as it retakes share from rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). Separately on the telecoms front, Nokia has come out and confessed that it is suffering from “channel issues” in China, following media reports earlier this month that its China distributors were rebelling en masse by refusing to sell its increasingly unpopular models after years of bullying. (Chinese article) According to this  latest report, Nokia forced large volumes of its phones on distributors in the first quarter of this year, allowing it to post 30 percent shipment growth in China for the period. But many of those phones couldn’t compete with more popular models, especially in the smartphone space, causing inventories to balloon and distributors to refuse to accept more handsets. As a result, Nokia’s China shipments tumbled 41 percent in the second quarter. Clearly the company is set for more stormy times ahead in China, at least until it comes out with its highly-anticipated new line of smartphones later this year based on Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Mango operating system.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s new 3G push will help it grab market share from rivals, while Nokia will continue to slide in China at least until it rolls out its new Mango-based smartphones.

中国移动(0941.HK; CHL.N)在新的管理层全力指挥下，继续向先前忽略的3G网络发力，准备扎堆推出一系列采用本土3G标准的新款手机。据国内媒体报导，中移动准备发布高、中、低档总数约30款的TD-SCDMA新机型，分别出自诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)、三星电子(005930.KS)、黑莓制造商Research In Motion(RIMM.O)及本土企业中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)与华为等厂商。当然，仍然缺少重量级产品–TD版的苹果iPhone，但所有迹象都表明：适用于中国移动3G网络的TD版iPhone今年年底前可能推出。随着中移动突击发展3G网络，中国诞生不久的3G格局可能会向中移动倾斜，因它可能会从竞争对手中国联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)与中国电信(0728.HK; CHA.N)中抢回一些市场份额。另外，在手机制造商方面，诺基亚已经承认在中国市场“渠道”环节出问题。此前媒体报导称，由于中国渠道商不愿出售诺基亚越来越受不欢迎的机型，诺基亚开始遭遇集体“反水”。根据最新报导，诺基亚今年第一季度在向渠道商大量压货的情况下，手机出货量有不错表现，录得30%的同比增长。但很多诺基亚机型无法与对手竞争，尤其是在智能手机领域，造成库存高企，渠道商拒绝接受更多现货。结果，诺基亚第二季度在中国的手机出货量同比大跌41%。显然，诺基亚未来在中国还要面临很多困难，至少今年稍晚推出搭载微软最新的Mango操作系统的新产品系列前，道路会很坎坷。

一句话：中移动在3G领域再发力，有助于帮助它从竞争对手手中夺回一些市场份额；诺基亚近期在华业绩仍会下滑，至少其Mango系统新机推出前难改颓势。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

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Don’t do it! Those are the only words of advice I can offer Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Chairman and founder Liu Chuanzhi, whose latest comments indicate his is weighing a possible bid for the PC assets that global leader Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is putting up for sale. (Chinese article) Liu, who built Lenovo from a local computer builder into the world’s fourth largest PC brand, was understandably reserved in his remarks to reporters on the subject, but his constant use of the phrase “something to consider” indicates to me that his mind is already moving in the direction of making a bid, an easy conclusion to make in light of his fondness for acquisitions that have included his blockbuster purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) PC business, and its more recent takeover of smaller PC operations in Japan and Germany. (previous post) Liu, if he did make a bid, would clearly be looking to vault his company past Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) to become the world’s top PC player, which this deal would clearly do. But the risks are huge, and it’s not at all clear to me that Lenovo could survive a successful bid, especially as it faces huge new competition from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in its home China market that accounts for half of its sales. (previous post) At the top of my list of concerns is the very real possibility that Lenovo would seriously overpay for the HP unit, as it faced strong rival bids from better-funded companies like Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Acer, and perhaps even Dell. But even more important, Lenovo would have an extremely hard time integrating its own business with HP’s, which is already much bigger and far more complex due to the company’s longer history and vast geographic reach. Lenovo might argue its IBM PC purchase has given it valuable experience in such integrations, which is partly true. But let’s also not forget the IBM integration was especially painful for Lenovo, and there’s every reason to believe that HP would be even more painful. If Liu Chuanzhi is smart, he will do his due diligence on HP’s PC business, and quickly decide it’s not worth bidding.

Bottom line: Recent comments from Lenovo’s chairman indicate he may be considering a bid for HP’s PC business — a move that if successful would prove disastrous.

别收购惠普PC业务！这是我给联想(0992.HK)创始人兼董事长柳传志的唯一建议。柳传志的近期评论暗示他正在权衡是否收购惠普(HPQ.N)旗下的PC业务。柳传志把联想从一个本土电脑商打造为全球第四大PC品牌，对记者的这一问题表示了可以理解的保留态度。但我认为，他多次使用“值得考虑”一词表明，他有意参加这次竞购，何况他向来喜欢并购，联想曾收购IBM(IBM.N)的PC业务，近期又收购日本NEC和德国Medion公司的PC业务。如果柳传志竞购惠普PC业务，明显是希望超过戴尔和台湾宏基(2353.TW: 行情)，成为全球第一大PC制造商，该收购案如果成功确实能实现这一点。但联想收购惠普PC业务风险巨大，而且我尚不清楚，联想是否能竞购成功，尤其是联想在中国市场还面临苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)的巨大挑战。我最担忧的是，竞购惠普PC业务时，联想面对三星(005930.KS)、宏基、甚至戴尔等对手的强劲竞标，可能会出价过高。但更重要的是，联想在整合惠普与其自身业务时可能历经艰辛，因为惠普历史悠久、市场更多，所以业务更庞大，也更复杂。联想可能会辩称，收购IBM PC业务为期提供了宝贵经验，一定程度上确实如此。但请不要忘记，联想整合IBM时非常痛苦，我们有理由相信，整合惠普会更痛苦。如果柳传志聪明的话，他应该对惠普PC业务进行独立的尽职调查，并迅速作出惠普PC业务不值得竞购的决定。

一句话：联想董事长柳传志近期评论表示，他可能考虑竞购惠普PC业务，此举若成功，有可能会带来灾难性後果。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

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The rest of the world may be buzzing about Steve Jobs’ announcement that he will retire as CEO of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), but my attention has been captured by a smaller piece of news that Apple may soon enter the low-cost smartphone business. Apple never discusses its future plans, and accordingly this latest piece of news is only gossip so far, citing two knowledgeable sources saying a low-cost version of the iPhone 4 is now being developed to go head-to-head with a segment of the market now dominated by phones running on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) free Android operating system. (English article) If true, such a development could provide not only headaches for Google and Android, but also for the growing field of Chinese smartphone makers that have relied on the free operating system to develop low-cost models favored not only in developing markets like China, but also by cost-conscious consumers in developed  markets like the US and Western Europe. Up-and-comer ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) would be most vulnerable to such a move by Apple, having staked its future on grabbing global market share with its low-cost Android based smartphones. Other companies that look vulnerable include Lenovo (HKEx: 992), whose young smartphone initiative is already sputtering just a year after its launch, and ZTE rival Huawei, which is also trying to make a splash with smartphones as growth for its older telecoms equipment business starts to slow. Such a move by Apple could also hit the prospects of TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618), whose cellphone business has posted a strong comeback in the last year after taking a serious hit after it acquired money-losing assets from Alcatel (Paris: ALUA) six years ago. I actually know the Reuters reporters who wrote the Apple low-cost iPhone story, and both are quite reliable so I’m fairly confident it’s only a matter of time before low-end iPhones hit the market. If and when that happens, look for the Chinese smartphone makers to suffer big headaches as a result.

Bottom line: Apple’s launch of a low-end iPhone could further cement its dominance in the global smartphone market, at the expense of Chinese players like ZTE, Lenovo and Huawei.

当人们热议乔布斯辞去苹果(AAPL.O)首席执行官（CEO）职务时，我关注的新闻是，苹果或即将打入低端智能手机市场。苹果从不讨论其未来计划，但两名消息人士透露，苹果正在研发低端版iPhone 4，将与谷歌(GOOG.O)Android操作系统手机占据的一部分市场进行正面交锋。尽管这还只是传闻，但如果消息属实，这一研发不仅让谷歌和Android业者头痛，也会让中国智能手机制造商苦不堪言。後者依赖免费的Android操作系统，研发低成本机型，这些低端机型不仅受到中国等发展中国家青睐，在美国和西欧等发达市场，也受到节俭消费者的欢迎。苹果此举或让中兴通讯(0763.HK)(000063.SZ)最“受伤”。中兴将公司未来押宝在利用低端Android智能手机掠夺全球市场的战略上。其它容易受创的公司包括联想(0992.HK)和华为。联想启动仅一年的智能手机项目已取得不俗成效，华为则因电信设备业务增长放缓，同样试图推智能手机业务提振业绩。苹果推低端版iPhone也会对TCL通讯(2618.HK)发展造成影响，TCL通讯六年前收购阿尔卡特-朗讯(ALUA.PA)亏损的手机资产後一度严重受创，但去年该部门业绩强势反弹。我认识报导苹果可能推低端版iPhone手机消息的两位路透记者，他们的消息都很可靠，所以我很有理由相信，该款手机上市只是时间问题。如果苹果发布低端版iPhone 4，我预计将让中国智能手机商极为头痛。

一句话：苹果推出低端版iPhone，或进一步巩固其全球智能手机市场主导地位，代价则是中兴通讯、联想和华为等中国手机制造商受到冲击。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

China Takes Global PC Crown – But Does It Matter? 中国PC出货全球居冠 但有何意义?

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The inevitable as finally happened, as China overtook the US in the second quarter of this year to become the world’s biggest PC market both in terms of unit sales and revenue, according to new data from IDC. (English announcement) The only question is: what does it mean and does the PC element really matter,  as PCs are showing signs of becoming a sort of high-tech dinosaur, being rapidly replaced by lighter, more adaptable devices like smartphones and tablets computers. But first the data. According to IDC, PC makers shipped 18.5 million computers worth $11.9 billion to China in the second quarter, versus 17.7 million units worth $11.7 billion for the US. For anyone who’s doing the math, you can see that the average PC sold in China cost around $643, versus $661 for the US, meaning the difference in price wasn’t all that big for the two markets. But at the end of the day, the PC is probably a dying breed and will ultimately be replaced by an array of more specialized, portable devices much the way that desktop PCs have become all but obsolete due to the rise of laptops. As that happens, China will undoubtedly become a leader in many new product categories, at least in terms of sales, simply due to the sheer size of its market, much the way that it has in terms of Internet users and cellphone subscribers. But the recent rise of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), which overtook Lenovo (HKEx: 992) in terms of overall China sales (previous post), shows that China’s market for computing devices will become much more competitive as the equation changes, with global players fighting much more aggressively for a piece of this huge market. Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE: HPQ) planned sale of its PC business will also throw an interesting new element into this  equation, providing the buyer of that business with a strong launch pad to take an important piece of this fast-growing market.

Bottom line: China’s emergence as the world’s biggest PC market was inevitable due to its size, bringing a new dynamic as both domestic and international players fight for a bigger piece of the pie.

该来的终究来了。据IDC最新数据，中国今年第二季度无论是从出货额上还是出货量上均超过美国，成为全球最大的个人电脑（PC）市场。唯一的问题是：这有 何意义？PC真的重要吗？当今，PC正在某种程度上变成高科技恐龙，被更轻、更便捷的设备如智能手机与平板电脑等迅速替代。不过，还是先来说数据。根据IDC的数字，中国第二季度PC出货量达1,850万台，发货额共计119亿美元；相比之下，美国第二季PC发货量1,770 万台，发货额117亿美元。简单计算一下，在中国每台PC的平均售价约为643美元，美国则为661美元，也就是说在两个国家PC售价差别不大。但是归根到底，PC可能是垂死的一个产品系，最终会被一系列更加专业、便于携带的设备取代，正如目前由于笔记本电脑的崛起，台式机已经江河日下一样。按此形势，中国必定在很多类新产品上都是领头羊，至少在销量上会这样，原因仅仅在于中国市场规模实在是太大了，正如现在中国互联网用户与手机用户全球排名第一一样。但是苹果公司(AAPL.O)近期发威，最近在华整体销量超过本土品牌联想(0992.HK)，显示随着市场形势的改变，中国电脑类市场竞争还会更加激烈，国际品牌将会更加努力争取份额。惠普(HPQ.N)计划出售其PC业务，也会为这个变化的形式中加入新的元素，为买家冲击中国市场提供一个很好的启动基础。

一句话：中国市场规模巨大，成为全球最大PC市场是自然而然、不可避免的结果，在国内外企业竞争这块大蛋糕之际，为他们加入新的动力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Lenovo’s LePad: Finally a Game Plan That Could Work 联想乐Pad：终於拿出了像样的东西

◙ Acer and Dell: One Cuts, One Pastes 宏基裁人、戴尔建厂

China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

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China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), under new leadership as long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou gets set to retire, is showing signs of new life on several fronts, including some of its best earnings in quite a while. The company reported its second-quarter profit rose 7 percent — a figure that might look boring by anyone else’s standards but marks a sharp improvement for a company that has reported low single-digit growth and even one decline for most of the past three years. (English article) The company credited the growth to revenue from stronger data services traffic, an area that China Mobile had neglected in the last two years after failing to win a 3G license based on globally developed technology and instead being forced to use a homegrown standard. After those two years of denial, China Mobile seems to finally be not only facing its less-than-ideal 3G reality but also embracing it, pushing hard for a deal to develop and offer a version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone based on its homegrown 3G standard. After welcoming Apple’s COO Tim Cook to its Beijing headquarters in June as part of those talks (previous post), China Mobile disclosed last week that none other than Apple chief Steve Jobs himself has joined the negotiations, indicating a deal is likely in the next 1-2 months and the company could offer its own 3G iPhones by the end of the year. Wang is also keeping up China Mobile’s pressure on the telecoms regulator to issue 4G licenses sooner rather than later, saying the company’s 4G trial networks in 6 major Chinese cities could be ready for commercialization by next year. (Chinese article) The commercial launch of such 4G service, which uses more reliable technology than China Mobile’s 3G network, would bring even more momentum back to China Mobile at the expense of smaller rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), and if all goes according to plan I could easily see China Mobile returning to double-digit profit growth as soon as the end of this year.

Bottom line: China Mobile is rapidly regaining  momentum under its new leadership, and could easily return to double-digit profit growth by the end of this year.

中国移动(0941.HK)董事长王建宙即将退休，在新领导层带领下，中移动在各方面显露出新成长迹象，包括近期财报表现出色。中移动财报显示，其第二季度利润同比增长约7%，这在其它公司看来或许表现平平，但过去三年中多数时候，中移动一直以个位数低幅增长，甚至出现一次亏损，因此这一增幅标志着其经营状况大幅改观。中移动将此归功于数据服务流量增加，中移动在两年前的3G牌照颁发中仅取得中国自主研发的TD-SCDMA标准後，一直未对数据服务领域给予重视。两年之後，中移动似乎终于面对并接受其差强人意的3G现实并积极应对，正努力争取达成协议，提供基于TD-SCDMA标准的苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone。苹果首席运营官库克（Tim Cook）6月到访中移动北京总部谈判，中移动上周披露，苹果首席执行官乔布斯亲自参与谈判，表明协议或在1-2个月内完成，中移动年底前或推出TD-SCDMA版3G iPhone。王建宙还将继续敦促工信部尽早发放4G牌照，称中移动在六大城市的TD-LTE试点网络预计明年可以实现商用。由于中国移动的4G技术比现有的3G技术可靠，服务商用化启动，4G的商用将对中移动更为有利，但代价是牺牲中国联通(0762.HK, CHU.N)和中国电信(0728.HK, CHA.N)等规模较小的竞争对手，如果一切依中移动的计划推进，我认为，中移动在年底前将轻而易举地恢复利润两位数增长。

一句话：中国移动在新管理层带领下，将迅速夺回市场份额，年底前将轻而易举重返利润两位数增长。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

◙ Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

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Leading Chinese PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) has finally discovered a winning formula, beating market expectations with a profit that doubled in its latest fiscal quarter on the back of strong sales in its core emerging markets business. (company announcement) Unfortunately for Lenovo, however, it has discovered the formula just a little too late, underscoring its record for late arrivals to new product areas and boding poorly for its future. The company boasted that six years after its landmark purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) struggling PC business, it has finally managed to turn that unit around and posted a $77 million profit for its developed markets business in the quarter ended June 30. But it was less boastful about the fact that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), in a much shorter period, has come from nowhere to overtake it in terms of revenue in its home China market, which accounts for about half of Lenovo’s sales. (previous post) The company was also more muted on its recently launched smartphone and tablet PC offerings, the LePhone and LePad, which are clearly two important products of the future as people move away from traditional laptops and desktop models towards lighter, more mobile computing. According to calculations in one Chinese meida report, the company has sold just over 700,000 LePhones in the last 3 quarters in China (Chinese article), and the company itself admitted to an anemic 80,000 LePads sold in the latest quarter. (English article) That compares with Apple’s estimated 1 million iPads sold in China in the latest quarter alone, although obviously Apple has a head start there. Still, considering Lenovo’s weak performance for these key new products in its own home market, where it has numerous advantages over Apple, its latest seemingly strong results point to strong headwinds in the future, both at home and abroad.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s strong profit in its latest quarterly results masks serious weakness in the key future growth areas of smartphones and tablet PCs.

中国电脑巨头联想(0992.HK)终于发现了制胜法宝，公布其季度净利超乎预期地增长一倍，这主要得益于其核心的新兴市场业务强劲。但不幸的是，联想发现这个法宝的时机有点太晚了，正如联想在进军新产品领域方面常常都会晚一步，这对未来可不是个好兆头。联想收购IBM个人电脑(PC)业务已六年，终于已扭亏为盈，在截至6月30日的会计年度，联想成熟市场业务贡献了7,700万美元的利润，但这与苹果相比就不值一提了。苹果在比这短得多的时间里，在中国市场几乎从零开始，在该市场销售已经超过联想。此外，联想最近推出的智能手机和平板电脑，市场反响平平，而这两个产品代表着未来发展方向。据中国媒体报导，联想在过去三个季度中乐Phone销量仅略超出70万支，而联想也表示上季乐Pad仅卖出8万台。与之形成鲜明对比的是，单是上季苹果iPad在中国销量就达到100万台，当然苹果在平板电脑市场是占了先机的。中国是联想的本土市场，本应享有天时地利，其新产品表现却远远不及苹果，因此尽管其最新季度财报貌似强劲，未来不管在国内市场，还是国际市场，都还面临沉重压力。

一句话：联想最新季度获利强劲，但千万别忽略其在智能手机和平板电脑领域的薄弱表现。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

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While the rest of the world buzzes about Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) blockbuster deal to buy Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), eyes in China are more focused on a worrisome report regarding struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), which once dominated the Chinese market but is rapidly losing share to up-and-comers like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). According to the report, a growing number of Chinese sellers are refusing to accept shipments of Nokia phones, in what looks like a rebellion after years of being bullied by Nokia when it dominated both the China and global markets.  (Chinese article) The article doesn’t provide a lot more detail, but does say the insurrection has been going on since April, and could see Nokia report sharply lower sales in the world’s largest cellphone market by subscribers when second-quarter numbers start to come out. If true, this rapid fall in fortunes for Nokia would mirror its rapid global decline. Chinese consumers, like everyone else, are always looking for the latest and coolest cellphone, and Nokia’s offerings just don’t look nearly as sleek as smartphones from Apple or Samsung. What’s more, lower end producers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) are appealing to more cost-conscious consumers, offering cool, low-priced smartphones costing as little as $100 each based on Google’s Android operating system. Nokia, by comparison, can only offer phones based on its own Symbian system, which most people find uninspired and is due for retirement by the end of this year. The trend for Nokia resembles what happened several years ago in China to Motorola, whose fall from grace was also rapid and for similar reasons. If this report is true, and I think there’s a good chance it is, Nokia could easily lose its crown as the top mobile phone seller in China within the next year.

Bottom line: A rebellion by Chinese cellphone sellers against Nokia reflects the company’s broader fall from grace, and could see it lose its market-leading position in China in the next 12 months.

谷歌<GOOG.O>收购摩托罗拉移动<MMI.N>成为全球热议话题，而在中国，一份有关诺基亚<NOK.N>的报告更令人关注。诺基亚曾是中国手机市场霸主，但其市场份额正迅速被苹果<AAPL.O>和三星<005930.KS>等新秀蚕食。该报告显示，大批中国代理商拒绝进诺基亚手机，看起来很像一场对诺基亚主导国内外市场多年的反抗。文章并未提供更多细节，但称从4月起，中国各地代理商开始对诺基亚“说不”。二季度数据出炉时，诺基亚在华销量料将大幅下滑。如果情况确实如此，诺基亚盈利迅速减少，将反映其在全球市场的迅速衰落。与其他国家一样，中国消费者也总是青睐最酷的新款手机，而诺基亚手机难与苹果或三星的智能手机媲美。此外，中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>等较低端手机生产商推出时尚的Android智能手机，每款售价低至100美元，对节省开支的消费者更具吸引力。相比之下，诺基亚只有采用塞班系统的手机，许多人觉得该系统缺乏新意，预计将於今年年底前“退役”。这很像几年前摩托罗拉在华面临的困境，摩托罗拉当年也是由於类似原因，迅速走下坡路。如果这份有关诺基亚的报告属实，我认为，诺基亚很可能将在明年失去中国手机市场霸主地位。

一句话：中国大批代理商对诺基亚手机“说不”，证明诺基亚手机进一步“失宠”，或在一年内失去在华市场的主导地位。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Motorola, Huawei Settle, Now Everyone Can Move On 华为与摩托罗拉和解，各方均受益

◙ Guest Post: Move Over Nokia and RIM, Here Comes HTC

News Digest: August 4

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 4. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ China Telecom (HKEx: 728), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) In Preliminary iPhone Deal – Source (English article)

◙ Tudou Plans to Raise $120 Mln in US IPO This Week – Source (Chinese article)

◙ Elavon (NYSE: USB) and China UnionPay Reach Processing Agreement (Businesswire)

◙ Sina Corp (Nasdaq: SINA) to Report Q2 Financial Results on August 17 (PRNewswire)

◙ Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) to Report Q2 Financial Results on August 16 (PRNewswire)

China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

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After years of stagnanation under charismatic but otherwise uninspired longtime Chairman Wang Jianzhou, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) seems to finally be regaining some of its long-lost excitement with buzz of Wang’s imminent departure and the signing of a new deal to sell Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone. In the latest development on the Apple front, Chinese media are reporting that China Mobile’s Beijing subsidiary has quietly added the iPhone 4 to the list of models it will support for international roaming plans. (Chinese article) While use of unauthorized iPhones on China Mobile’s 2G network has been common ever since the iPhone first debuted, this official support for Apple could indicate that China Mobile may be very close to striking a deal to offer official iPhone service that can run on its 3G network using homegrown Chinese technology. The company announced last year it was in such talks with Apple, and a low-key visit to its headquarters in June by Apple COO Tim Cook fueled speculation that a deal could be near. (previous post) The talk alone has helped China Mobile’s languishing stock to regain some of the momentum it has lost over the last few years to more nimble rivals China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), which also have the advantage of using better technology in their 3G networks. Adding to the growing excitement around China Mobile’s “rebirth”, Chinese media are reporting that Xi Guohua, who recently took over the role of secretary of China Mobile’s state-run parent from Wang Jianzhou (previous post), has now assumed the title of vice chairman at the listed company as well. (Chinese article) Xi’s rapid rise, coupled with last year’s elevation of another up-and-comer, Li Yue, to president of the listed China Mobile, seem to indicate that Wang’s departure from the company could be imminent, bringing in much-needed new blood and fresh ideas to the top of this cash-rich but otherwise stagnant telecoms giant.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s imminent arrival of top new leadership and an iPhone deal will breath new life into the company’s business and also its stock, following years of stagnation.

中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>在经历了多年发展迟滞後似乎终於将出现一些可喜的变化，有传言称，王建宙即将离任，且中移动将与苹果<AAPL.O>签署销售iPhone手机的协议。关於中移动与苹果的最新合作进展，据中国媒体报导，北京移动悄然将iPhone 4列入了促销活动范围。尽管自iPhone上市以来，在中移动2G网络上使用未被授权的iPhone手机相当普遍，但这种对苹果手机的正式支持或许意味着，中移动与苹果可能接近达成协议，在其3G网络上提供iPhone服务。中移动去年曾宣布，公司正与苹果公司就相关合作进行谈判，而苹果首席运营官库克(Tim Cook)6月份低调访问中移动总部的消息也加剧了这一传闻。仅传言本身就帮助中移动疲软的股价重获动力，中移动在过去几年的增长势头不及中国联通< 0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>。另外，据中国媒体报导，刚接任中移动母公司党组书记不久的奚国华已被任命为中移动上市公司副董事长。奚国华的快速晋升以及去年升任中移动上市公司总裁李跃的提升似乎说明，王建宙可能即将离任，这将为中移动高层带来亟需的新鲜血液和想法。

一句话：经过数年的发展迟滞後，中移动即将出现的高层变动以及与苹果的协议将为该公司业务和股价带来新的活力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

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What a difference a couple of years makes. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), a tiny player in China as little as two years ago, has suddenly become a new dominant force in both China’s computing and cellphone scene, taking on traditional market leaders Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V.HE) in their respective spaces. The US maker of wildly popular iPhone cellphones and iPad tablet PCs officially surpassed Lenovo in terms of total China sales in the quarter through June (English article), while it also picked up share on Nokia, whose China sales plunged 41 percent in the first quarter of 2011, according to research firm Gartner (English article). At this point, Apple looks nearly unstoppable in China, with companies scrambling to import more iPads to meet ever-growing demand and the country’s leading mobile carrier, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) on the cusp of signing a landmark deal to offer iPhones in China that will run on its 3G network. The pirates have been making iPhone and iPad look-alikes for a while now, and even retailers are getting in on the action with a recent headline-making knock-off Apple store opening up in southwestern Yunnan province. (English article) Apple’s sudden surge in China, the world’s biggest cellphone market by subscribers and the second biggest PC market, must be coming as a shock to both Lenovo and Nokia, neither of which has strong offerings in the smartphone or tablet PC space to fend off the attack. If Apple continues to surge, which seems likely, look for Nokia and especially Lenovo to see their China business start to weaken in the next 1-2 years as each looks on powerlessly at China’s new fascination with this innovative US tech giant.

Bottom line: Apple’s sudden surge in China will spell headaches in the next 1-2 years for Lenovo and Nokia, which each lack strong offerings to counter popular iPhones and iPads.

真是三十年河东三十年河西！两年前在中国还势单力薄的苹果公司(AAPL.O: 行情)突然间成了中国电脑和手机行业新的主导力量，向传统的市场领头羊联想(0992.HK: 行情)和诺基亚(NOK1V.HE: 行情)分别发起了挑战。截至六月份的第二季度，苹果在华电脑总销量正式超过联想，同时还夺取了诺基亚的市场份额。据市场研究公司Gartner的数据，诺基亚2011年第一季度在中国的销量骤降41%。目前，苹果在中国的发展势如破竹，各大公司竞相争取进口更多的iPad，以满足中国不断增加的需求。中国移动(0941.HK: 行情)(CHL.N: 行情)接近签署一项具有里程碑意义的协议，在华引进使用其3G网络的iPhone手机。而盗版厂商们则一直在生产与iPhone和iPad酷似的电子产品，就连零售商也加入了“山寨”行列，云南昆明的“高仿真”苹果零售店就是典型案例。苹果在中国的突然崛起无疑令联想和诺基亚深为震惊，而後两者在智能手机和平板电脑领域均无强势产品可以进行反击。如果苹果继续高歌奋进，且这一趋势似乎也很有可能，诺基亚，尤其是联想未来1-2年在中国的业务肯定会缩水，因两者面对中国人对苹果产品的迷恋却无能为力。

一句话：苹果在中国的突然崛起会在未来1-2年内让联想和诺基亚头疼不已，因後两者均缺少可以抗衡iPhone和iPad的强势产品。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

◙ Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

◙ Unicom Takes on Apple, Google, Microsoft … I Don’t Think So 联通想挑战苹果、谷歌、微软……？我不看好