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Latest News about Apple in China, financial news and Business analysis overview of the Chinese high Tech market expert based in China : Doug Young

Sputtering Unicom’s Latest Excuse: Lack of Leadership

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China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) is reportedly conducting a massive search for top-level managers in many provinces, once again underscoring how the company is badly in need of strong new leadership as it increasingly appears to be squandering its golden opportunity to gain market share over dominant carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). According to Chinese media reports, Unicom is looking for people to head its operations in a large number of provinces, continuing a search that dates back as far as February last year. (Chinese article). It’s been nearly 3 years now since Unicom merged with rival China Netcom in a major industry restructuring, and certainly the company can be forgiven for not filling key positions for the first year or so after such a big change. But 3 years is quite a long time, and if it’s taking them this long to fill these key positions it’s no surprise that the company is making little or no progress at bolstering its position in China’s mobile market. Most will recall that Unicom was given a golden opportunity to gain share over China Mobile, which controls over two-thirds of China’s mobile market, nearly 3 years ago when it was awarded a 3G license based on the world’s best technological standard. By comparison, China Mobile received a big handicap by having to develop its 3G service using a homegrown standard with lots of problems. Despite that, Unicom’s share of the 3G market has remained stagnant since the beginning of the year, at around 30 percent. Meantime, China Mobile’s 3G share has eroded from 45 percent in April to 42 percent in September, with the country’s third-largest carrier, China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) picking up all of those loses. Unicom, which also has the enviable advantage as China’s only official seller of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhones, previously blamed a lack of 3G handsets for its failure to pick up share despite its obvious technological advantages. Now it looks like it’s blaming lack of strong management at the provincial level. Either way, Unicom seems to be better at making excuses than doing good business, and I’m fast losing confidence in its ability to bolster its position under current management.

Bottom line: Unicom’s latest problems in filling top management jobs at the provincial level reflect a poorly run company that is fast squandering its golden opportunity to pick up market share from rivals.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Unicom’s Sputtering 3G: Blame It On the Handsets 联通幡然醒悟 借低价手机扩张3G市场

◙ China Mobile Shuffle: Sea Change Coming? 中移动高层变动或引发重大变化？

◙ China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

Baidu, ZTE Earnings: More of the Same 百度和中兴财报：看上去没变化

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Chinese firms are flooding the market with third-quarter results, with industry bellwethers Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) both reporting figures that show continuation of recent trends. First Baidu, which reported a healthy rise of around 80 percent in both revenue and profit, as it banked on strong demand for ads on its search site, China’s dominant player with more than two-thirds of the market. (company announcement) Baidu further predicted that revenue will continue to grow at similar rates in the fourth quarter, as healthy demand continues. I previously predicted a sharp slowdown in ad spending could be looming as a much-needed correction looms for China’s overinflated Internet bubble, but clearly Baidu is seeing no signs of that yet. I still think such a correction is coming, and will hit Baidu’s top and bottom lines when it does; but despite signs of trouble from the group buying sector and some e-commerce firms, we won’t see the first real signs of a downturn until the first or most likely the second quarter of next year. As to ZTE, the company also reported third-quarter revenue grew at a healthy 37 percent, accelerating from the first half of the year as it focused on building up its cellphone business, which was up more than 50 percent in the first 9 months of 2011. (Chinese article) But while revenue rose, its third quarter profit fell by nearly 40 percent, also accelerating from the first half of the year, as it continued its risky strategy of grabbing global market share for its handset business by selling its low-end smartphones at prices near or perhaps even below its costs. This strategy could work in the end if ZTE can raise its prices after it gains market share. But it could also backfire if consumers come to associate the company with cheap products and aren’t willing to pay a premium for its cellphones. The company’s heavy reliance on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android smartphone operating system also puts it at risk of potential lawsuits from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), which has already files similar suits against some other major cellphone makers.

Bottom line: The latest Baidu and ZTE results show continuation of recent trends, though the former remains at risk due to a possible Internet bubble, and the latter from a risky expansion strategy.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

Lenovo Takes Backward Step With Compal JV 联想和仁宝合资建厂为倒退举动

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Investors must see something I’m missing in Lenovo’s (HKEx: 992) newly announced $300 million joint venture with Taiwanese contract PC manufacturer Compal (Taipei: 2324). That’s the only reason I can find for an 11 percent jump in Lenovo’s stock on Tuesday after it announced the deal, which will see it pair with one of Taiwan’s top contract PC makers in a new manufacturing tie-up. To me, this deal looks more like a step backward than a positive new development, and goes in the opposite  direction of global industry trends. First let’s review the facts: under their new deal, the companies will invest the $300 million to build a PC manufacturing plant in the Chinese city of Hefei. Presumably the plant will exclusively supply PCs to Lenovo, which recently passed Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) to become the world’s third largest PC seller (previous post) and said it aims to take the number-two spot from Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) by the end of the year. The only problem with this latest joint venture plan is that it completely goes against a much bigger industry trend that has seen most of the world’s major electronics makers, including names like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Dell and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) sell off most of their PC-building assets in the last 10 years and outsource the work to specialist contract manufactures, mostly in Taiwan, like Compal and Hon Hai (Taipei: 2317). The trend occurred to let the big brands focus on marketing and sales, while giving them the flexibility to use one or more of the contract manufacturers depending on their needs in an increasingly competitive global marketplace. For Lenovo to get back into the manufacturing business completely contradicts all these latest industry trends, and I see little or no advantage in this move. My only guess as to why the market got so excited over the news is that perhaps investors believe that with this new project now on its plate, Lenovo will be less likely to make a foolish bid for HP’s PC assets, which would be much more disastrous for Lenovo than this relatively small new investment with Compal.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s new PC manufacturing joint venture with Compal makes little or no sense, and is an unneeded distraction as it aims to take the world’s No. 2 PC spot from Dell.

联想(0992.HK)周二宣布，将与台湾PC代工厂商仁宝(2324.TW)共建规模达3亿美元的合资公司，这项交易中，定有投资者发现了而我却错过的东西。联想股价在周二交易宣布後大涨11%，这是我唯一能想到的原因。合资建厂交易，将令联想和台湾PC代工大厂结成新的生产联盟。但依我看，这项交易更像是倒退了一步，而非向前的新发展，与全球PC行业发展趋势也是背道而驰。首先，我们来回顾一些事实。按照此交易，联想和仁宝将斥资3亿美元在合肥建PC制造厂。联想近期超越台湾宏基(2353.TW)，成为世界第三大PC厂商，并称其目标是到年底取代戴尔(DELL.O)成为世界第二大PC厂商。新合资工厂将只向联想供应PC产品，这项合资计划里面唯一的问题是，这种做法与行业大趋势完全背道而驰。过去10年中，苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)、戴尔和惠普(HPQ.N)等一些世界电子行业巨头纷纷出售各自PC制造资产，并将PC生产工作外包给仁宝和鸿海(2317.TW: 行情)等专业代工商。这种趋势让大公司更多地专注于市场营销，同时在日益激烈的全球竞争中给他们带来灵活性，可以根据需求选择一家或多家代工厂商。联想重返制造业务，完全违背了这些最新行业趋势，我认为此举鲜有或根本没有优势可言。市场为何对此消息如此兴奋，我唯一的猜测的是，投资者可能认为联想有了这一新项目，愚蠢的竞购惠普PC资产的可能性会更小。与这项和仁宝的相对较小规模的投资相比，竞购惠普PC资产会带来更大灾难。

一句话：联想和仁宝合资建厂几乎无意义可言，对超越戴尔成为世界第二大PC厂商的目标来说，也是节外生枝。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Acer Trips, Lenovo Next? 联想应避免重蹈宏基覆辙

◙ HP’s Mobile OS Looks Hot for Lenovo, HTC 联想和HTC似将发动惠普资产竞购战

◙ Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场，研发时尚型PC

Unicom’s Sputtering 3G: Blame It On the Handsets 联通幡然醒悟 借低价手机扩张3G市场

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Despite receiving numerous advantages from Beijing in China’s fledgling 3G market, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; HKEx: CHU) has shown disappointingly slow progress in boosting its share in the space and now we may know why: a shortage of low-cost handsets. That’s what domestic media are reporting, with Unicom preparing to buy up to 8 million smartphones costing under 1,000 yuan, or about $150 each, in a bid to boost its share in the market. (Chinese article) A quick look at the numbers shows that Unicom has made little or no progress in terms of boosting its 3G market share in the last 4 months. It owned 30 percent of the market in April, compared to 45 percent for the nation’s dominant carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) and 25 percent for China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). (previous post) Fast forward to August, when Unicom’s share remained stuck at 30 percent, while China Mobile’s dropped 2 percentage points to 43 percent, all of which was picked up by China Telecom, whose share rose to 27 percent. (English article) In my view, blaming its lack of progress on lack of low-cost handsets is a lame excuse. Unicom’s 3G network is technically superior to both of its rivals’, supported by a much wider array of handsets than those available to 3G subscribers of China Mobile or China Telecom. The fact that Unicom chose to focus on high-end customers in its 3G campaign, relying especially heavily on Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) trendy but costly iPhone, shows a clear lack of foresight by the company, which should have realized that the vast majority of Chinese living outside the wealthiest cities like Beijing and Shanghai may not want to spend 3,000 yuan or more for 3G handsets. I applaud Unicom for finally realizing its mistake and moving to rectify it with a mass purchase of lower-cost phones. But such a fundamental miscalculation looks a bit worrisome, especially as Unicom’s technological advantage could end as soon as next year as China Mobile trials and prepares for the commercial launch of a solid 4G product and China Telecom continues its aggressive 3G promotion.

Bottom line: Unicom’s failure to anticipate demand for low-cost 3G handsets reflects a lack of vision, which will undermine the company’s longer term prospects.

在中国刚刚起步的3G市场，中国联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)从政府那儿得到数不清的好处，但它在提高市场份额方面却显出令人失望的迟缓，现在，我们或许已经知道其中缘由了：缺乏低成本手机。根据国内媒体报导，为扩大市场份额，联通准备采购800万部千元以下的智能手机。光看这一数字就知道，联通在过去四个月中几乎未能在抢占3G市场份额方面取得任何进展。今年4月，联通占有30%的3G市场份额，中国移动(0941.HK; CHL.N)和中国电信(CHA.N)分别为45%和25%。到了8月份，联通的市场份额未变，中国移动则下滑两个百分点，至43%，中国电信则升至27%。在我看来，将进展迟缓归咎于缺乏低成本手机是个非常蹩脚的借口。联通的3G网络在技术上要优于竞争对手，相比中国移动或中国电信的3G用户，联通提供了更多样化的手机选择。但联通选择把高端客户，特别是依赖苹果iPhone手机的人，作为其扩张3G市场的重点，这个事实只能说明联通缺乏远见。联通本应意识到，那些不在北京、上海等一线城市生活的广大中国民众或许不愿花3,000多块钱买个3G手机。联通总算能意识到错误，并通过大量采购低成本手机的亡羊补牢之举，令我感到庆幸。但这麽低级的一个判断失误着实令人担心，尤其考虑到联通的技术优势可能会最早在明年终结，届时中国移动或在明年尝试并准备推出商业化的4G产品，中国电信也会继续其3G网络的推广。

一句话：中国联通未能预见到低成本3G手机的巨大需求，说明缺乏远见，而这一缺陷将有损联通的长远前景。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

◙  Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

Apple Prepares to Bring Anti-Android Drive to China 苹果计划在华反击Android

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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has taken the interesting step of getting 40 new patents in China, in what looks like an opening move that could ultimately see it target the growing number of Chinese cellphone makers that use Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android cellphone operating system. (English article) The report in the China Daily focuses on the more obvious potential aims of the patents, such as closing a slew of bogus Apple stores that have sprung up in China as Apple’s sales have soared to surpass those of leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992). (previous post) But the article points out the new patents also cover Apple’s popular user-friendly smartphone operating system (OS), which has been largely responsible for the huge boom in its iPhone and smartphone sales in general over the last 3 years. Apple has argued that Google’s free Android OS, which has been embraced by many of the world’s top cellphone makers, is a copycat of its own OS, and has successfully sued to halt the sale of popular Android-based smartphones and tablet PCs from Taiwan’s HTC (Taipei: 2498) and Korea’s Samsung (Seoul: 005930). Based on that behavior, this new round of patent filings in China looks like Apple is preparing to sue Chinese smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo and TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618; Shenzhen: 000100), which all use Android. ZTE in particular could be at big risk, as its recent drive to become a global leader in smartphones costing as little as $100 each (previous post) relies heavily on Android. If Apple does file such a lawsuit, it will be interesting to see how China’s courts react as obviously any ruling in Apple’s favor could deal a big blow to the domestic industry. But anyone industry watchers should also note that Chinese courts don’t appear to have any power to make temporary rulings like judges do in the US, meaning any enforcement action can only occur after a judge makes a final decision — a process that could take months or even a year. Still, considering Apple’s success so far in the US against giants like Samsung and HTC, Chinese smartphone makers would be well advised to start drawing up plans for new Android alternatives if and when Apple moves its anti-Android battle to China.

Bottom line: Apple’s new round of patents in China look like the prelude to lawsuits against domestic smartphone makers like ZTE, which rely heavily on Google’s free Android operating system.

苹果(AAPL.O)在华成功申请了40项新专利，其终极目标看似是对采用谷歌(GOOG.O)Android系统的中国手机商亮剑的第一步。《中国日报》的报导侧重苹果旨在专利维权的一面，例如关闭苹果山寨零售店等。由于苹果电脑在华销量大涨，超过PC领军企业联想(0992.HK)，苹果山寨店如雨後春笋般涌现。但文章指出，苹果新申请的专利还包括其界面友好的智能手机操作系统(OS)，这一操作系统是过去三年推动iPhone和智能手机销量整体上升的重要原因。苹果辩称，全球许多顶级手机商采用的谷歌免费提供的Android系统，是抄袭苹果OS系统的设计。苹果还在宏达电(HTC)(2498.TW)和三星(005930.KS)专利侵权案中胜诉，成功迫使两家公司的Android智能手机和平板电脑暂停销售。鉴于此举，苹果在华新一轮的专利申请，看似将准备起诉使用Android系统的中国智能手机制造商，例如中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想和TCL通讯(2618.HK)。中兴通讯面临的风险尤其大，因为其近期力争成为售价低至100美元的智能手机的全球领军企业，该公司的这一计划严重依赖Anroid系统。如果苹果提出侵权诉讼，中国法院如何回应是件有趣的事情，因为任何明显有利于苹果的判决，都将重创中国手机产业。但业内观察者也指出，中国法庭进行终裁後才会有执行举措，而法庭裁判过程往往耗时数月甚至一年。话说回来，考虑到苹果在美胜诉三星和宏达电侵权，中国智能手机商最好早做打算，制定替代Android的新计划，以防苹果万一在华打响反击Android战役。

一句话：苹果在华新一轮专利申请，看似是起诉中兴通讯等中国智能手机商的前奏，这些本土企业严重依赖谷歌免费提供的Android操作系统。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

China Mobile: Where’s the 3G iPhone? 中移动4G网络稳步推进 3G版iPhone或遇阻

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A flurry of new reports about China Mobile’s (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) highly anticipated 4G network came out toward the end of last week, with news of expanded trials and a near-certain tie-up with Apple (Nasdaq: APPL) for an iPhone that will run on the network’s homegrown Chinese technology. But perhaps more interesting was WASN’T in the reports, namely any updates on China Mobile’s talks to develop an iPhone for its struggling 3G network, also based on a Chinese technology standard. One of the two reports late last week cites China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou saying his company has reached an agreement with Apple to work together on an iPhone for the company’s 4G mobile network using a technology called TD-LTE, which is now in advanced trial stages. (Chinese article) A separate article says China Mobile also plans to soon wrap up its first big-scale trials for TD-LTE in six major cities, with plans to start data card trials by the end of the year. (English article) If all goes according to plan, it looks like we could see China Mobile launch serious commercial trials for this 4G network by the end of next year, with full commercial service as soon as 2013 if the telecoms regulator agrees. That’s all fine and good for people looking ahead to 2013, but what’s missing here is any update from the talkative Wang on current talks to build an iPhone for China Mobile’s struggling 3G network, based on a problematic technology called TD-SCDMA. Reports have been rife for a while that China Mobile was close to a deal for a 3G iPhone, after it confirmed last year that such talks were taking place. But Wang’s latest silence looks like either he’s learned to keep quiet on sensitive matters, or more likely the 3G iPhone talks have hit a stumbling block, perhaps due to technology issues. If that’s the case, China Mobile and its stagnant bottom line may have to wait a while still for an iPhone that could bring new life to its 3G and 4G businesses.

Bottom line: China Mobile is making steady progress on its 4G network, but its chairman’s recent silence means talks for a 3G iPhone may have hit a stumbling block.

有报导称，中国移动将扩大4G网络测试，几乎可以确定将与苹果<APPL.O>合作，推适用於中移动自主研发网络的iPhone。但更有意思的是报导没有提及的内容，即有关中移动引进适用其TD-SCDMA网络的3G版iPhone的谈判。上周有报导援引中移动董事长王建宙的说法称，中移动与苹果达成合作协议，将针对中移动的TD-LTE网络推出新款iPhone。另有一篇文章称，中移动还计划尽快结束在六大城市对TD-LTE网络的大规模测试，拟在今年年底前开始数据卡测试。如果一切按计划顺利进行，中移动似乎到明年底前将正式开始TD-LTE网络的商用，如果得到监管部门的批准，最早2013年起将提供全面商用服务。这对於期待4G网络的人来说是好消息，但一向健谈的王建宙却对适用TD-SCDMA网络的iPhone谈判沉默。去年中移动确认在同苹果进行有关引进3G版iPhone的谈判後，有关协议接近达成的报导曾一度甚嚣尘上。但从王建宙近期三缄其口来看，要麽他学会了对敏感问题保持沉默，或者更可能的情况是，3G版iPhone谈判遇阻，很可能是由於技术问题。如果是这样，中移动或需等待一款iPhone问世，为其3G和4G业务带来新的活力，改善其盈利停滞状态。

一句话：中移动在4G网络方面取得稳步进展，但其董事长王建宙近期在3G版iPhone谈判上的沉默表明相关谈判或遇阻。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

◙ Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

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After a few weeks of relative quiet for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in China, there’s new buzz in the telecoms sector that China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) is set to start offering the iPhone 5 in October, ending months of speculation about the move. (Chinese article) The Chinese media reports are a bit unclear about whether the smallest of China’s 3 telcos has actually signed a deal with Apple, only saying China Telecom will offer the iPhone 5 starting in October and that vendors are already placing orders for the popular smartphone. That does seem to imply that the two sides have signed a deal, although I would expect an official announcement from China Telecom if that was the case, as clearly this is news it would want to publicize as part of its aggressive drive to build up its fledgling 3G business. Regardless of the actual situation, it does appear that China Telecom will start to offer iPhone service plans by October or November at the latest, which should give it a brief momentum boost over its two chief rivals, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and industry titan China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHT) as the 3 jostle for share in China’s 2-year-old 3G market. I use the word “brief” because China Telecom will probably only have a 2 or 3 months to bask in its new iPhone deal before China Mobile announces a bigger new deal to offer an iPhone that can work on its own 3G network, based on a homegrown Chinese technology called TD-SCDMA. (previous post) Such a deal has been rumored for months and appears to be near, which should help China Mobile take back some of the momentum it has lost over the last 2 years to China Telecom and Unicom, which already offers the iPhone. Of course, the winner in all this will be Apple itself, which will be able to use all 3 of China’s telcos to offer its iPhones that enjoy huge popularity in China — the world’s largest mobile market with more than 900 million subscribers. But among the carriers themselves, look for China Telecom to enjoy some momentum through the end of this year, which it will rapidly lose in 2012 after China Mobile signs its own iPhone deal.

Bottom line: China Telecom’s imminent deal with Apple to offer iPhones for its 3G network will give it new momentum over its rivals that will last through the end of the year.

围绕苹果(AAPL.O)的消息在中国刚相对平静了几周，通信业内又传出中国电信(0728.HK)(CHA.N)将于10月率先在中国推出iPhone 5的消息，结束此前几个月的坊间猜测。中国媒体称，还不清楚中国电信是否已经确实与苹果签订了有关协议，只是说中国电信将从10月开始提供iPhone 5， 经销商已经下单采购。这看似意味着双方已经签约，不过我预计若确有此事，中国电信会发布正式公告。这明显是中国电信想对外散布消息，也是希望推广其3G业务努力的一部分。无论实际情况如何，中国电信看似确实要在10月或最晚11月开始推出iPhone服务计划。这无疑在中国电信在3G领域挑战中国联通和中国移动过程中，带来短时的提振。我说“短时”是因为中国电信可能只会赢得两三个月的时间，享有拓展iPhone业务的领跑优势，随後中国移动可能会宣布更大规模基于其3G标准–TD-SCDMA网络的iPhone推广计划。关于中移动的传闻已经有几个月，现在似乎已经快要接近现实了，这将帮助中移动收复过去两年流失到中国电信和中国联通的部分失地。无疑，苹果将是上述竞争的最终获益者，能够利用中国全部三家电信公司的渠道售卖iPhone，而苹果的iPhone产品在拥有逾九亿用户的全球第一大移动通讯市场享有极高人气。但是，从各家中国电信运营商来看，中国电信在年底前会享受些许成长助力，在明年中国移动签约自己的iPhone之後，中国电信在这方面的优势将迅速消退。

一句话：中国电信即将签约苹果，提供用于其自身3G网络的iPhone业务启动在即，将在移动通讯市场竞争中获得新的动能，但好光景也许只能维持到年底。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

Latest Google Move: Gearing Up For China Return? 谷歌最新动向：打回中国市场？

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Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has launched yet another new China initiative, this time opening a group buying directory, in the latest of a series of moves that has the industry buzzing that the global search leader is reconsidering its high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year. In this latest development, domestic media are reporting that Google has officially launched a new site, Shuihui, to help Web surfers navigate the huge field of group buying sites, led by names like Lashou and 55tuan, that have sprung up in the last two years. (English article) The launch follows Google’s brief announcement last week that Beijing has renewed its Internet China Internet license (English article), and comes 3 months after Google reached a settlement with Chinese regulators that allowed it to continue providing its mapping services in China. (previous post) Google is also aggressively promoting its Android cellphone operating system in China as a lower cost alternative to Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone OS. This new spirit of cooperation between Google and Beijing contrasts sharply with the war of words between the two that ended with Google’s high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year over self-censorship issues. The changing tone has sparked rumors that Google is reconsidering its withdrawal from China’s search market, a move that at first seems unlikely but which could actually be possible due to some key changes in the market since last year’s big dispute. The biggest change is Beijing’s growing unease at Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) domination of China’s search market, with around 80 percent share now and no clear challengers in sight. (previous post) The second major change is that Beijing and Google have had some time to think, and both realize they can benefit from each other if they choose to work together rather than fight. Of course, Google will only come back if Beijing makes a major face-saving concession, probably by lifting many of its strict self-censorship rules. But considering recent developments, I would put Google’s chances for a return to China’s search market at 50-50 in the next 12 months.

Bottom line: Google may be considering a return to China’s search market in light of recent warming of its relations with Beijing, with a 50 percent chance of returning in the next 12 months.

谷歌(GOOG.O)再次出击中国市场，这次是团购搜索分类“谷歌时惠”，加之谷歌近来一系列其他举措，业界不禁猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑去年高调退出中国搜索市场的做法。据中国国内媒体报导，谷歌正式推出新服务“谷歌时惠”，帮助网络用户导航纷繁众多的团购网站。在此之前，谷歌还于上周发布简短声明，称中国政府已经更新了谷歌的中国互联网牌照。而在三个月前，谷歌与中国监管机构达成妥协，谷歌可继续在中国提供地图服务。此外，谷歌还在中国积极推广安卓手机操作系统，作为苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone OS的替代选择。谷歌与中国政府之间崭新的合作精神与去年双方围绕自我过滤问题的激烈交锋形成鲜明对比。合作基调渐趋改变，促使业界猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑其退出中国搜索市场做法。最大的变化在于中国对于百度在中国搜索市场的垄断地位益发不安。百度在国内搜索引擎市场的占有率高达80%，对手们远远被甩在了後面。第二个重大变化是中国政府与谷歌有了一些思考的时间，都意识到双方合则两利，斗则两伤。当然，只有在中国政府作出重大让步，比如放开很多自我审查规定之後，谷歌才会回归。但是考虑到近来事态的发展，我认为谷歌今後12个月回归中国搜索市场的机率为50%。

一句话：鉴于近来与中国政府的关系逐渐升温，谷歌可能正在考虑重回中国搜索市场，未来12个月回归机率大约为50%。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Google Map Impasse Resolved With New JV 谷歌地图风波解决

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Google’s China Map Crisis Near Resolution 谷歌中国地图争端接近解决

Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

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My latest glance at the morning headlines is reconfirming for me why longtime China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) Chairman Wang Jianzhou needs to step down, the sooner the better, and hand over control of the company to bolder new leadership that can bring some excitement back to this company. At first glance, his comments that China Mobile would face difficulty but could still reach its target of 50 million 3G subscribers this year looks relatively bold and aggressive (Chinese article), in contrast to a mostly conservative approach that caused the company to become a slow- or no-growth giant during his tenure. But then I did some math, which just shows how nothing about Wang has changed. China Mobile’s 3G network, based on a homegrown standard called TD-SCDMA, had 37.6 million subscribers at the end of July, up about 17 million from the beginning of the year. That means the company has added an average of 2.4 million 3G subscribers per month, with the numbers clearly accelerating in recent months. So doing the math, if it only continues to add subscribers at the same rate for the last 5 months of the year, it would just reach the 50 million subscriber mark. Clearly Wang is not taking any chances here, giving the most conservative forecast possible even though his company is clearly accelerating its 3G promotions, with a wide array of new handsets coming into the market and a deal to offer a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone likely by the end of this year (previous post). With all of those factors working in its favor, Wang’s continued quoting of the 50 million figure, which was given at the beginning of this year and is so obviously attainable, is just the latest indication that he needs to leave China Mobile and let a younger, more aggressive generation of leaders bring back some excitement to the company. The Chinese government has already promoted two younger leaders to key positions in the clearest indication of Wang’s coming retirement (previous post), which should be strongly welcomed by shareholders when it finally comes.

Bottom line: China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou’s latest conservative comments underscore that he needs to retire soon and leave his company to a new generation of more aggressive leaders.

早上看到的媒体报导再次让我确信，中国移动董事长王建宙为何需要让位了，而且是越早越好，将公司的控制权交给更具魄力的新领导能够给这家公司带来新气象。他表示中国移动将面临困难，但今年仍有可能实现5,000万3G用户的目标。乍看之下，与多数时候采取的保守举动相比，他的讲话还算比较大胆和激进。但是，我随後做了些简单计算，发现王建宙的讲话仍然是了无新意。截止到7月底，中国移动基于本土TD-SCDMA标准的3G网络用户为3,760万，较年初增长了大约1,700万。这意味着公司每个月增加了240万3G用户，实际上3G用户数在最近几个月出现了加速增长态势。据此计算可知，如果以过去五个月的用户增长率计算，今年年底将正好达到5,000万。很显然，王建宙没有给出任何意外之喜，只是提供了可以做出的最保守估计，根本没有考虑中国移动正在加大3G网络促销力度，包括更多新型手机上市，以及根据协议很可能在年底推出基于TD-SCDMA网络的苹果iPhone手机。在坐拥这麽多有利条件的情况下，王建宙仍和年初一样，继续提5,000万这个显而易见很容易实现的目标，无意说明他到了该离开中国移动的时候了，需要让位于年富力强的一代公司领导上台，给公司带来一些新的成长动力。中国政府已经提拔了两位年轻一些的领导到中国移动担任要职，这是王建宙行将退休的最明确信号。当一切最终成真时候，定能受到股东的热烈欢迎。

一句话：中国移动董事长王建宙最近的保守言论凸显他尽早退休的必要性，将公司交予新一代更富进取心的领导。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

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Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.

Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.

百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台，尽管许多人猜测，易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争，但我们目前知道，至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻，不妨告诉你吧，这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商，近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎，并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作，我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟，谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持，而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会，不再提出批评意见，我想说，百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择，这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明，与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比，中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品，所以，或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名，事实上，我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功，百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作，中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单，证明易平台可靠且人性化，我认为，百度有50%的机率，占据移动平台市场较大份额，这一比例或高达15-20%。

一句话：百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质，是其推广易平台的第一步，百度需要与更多大型手机商合作，才有望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场，研发时尚型PC

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There’s a few interesting news bits out there on Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which sum up its interesting search for direction in a brave new world where its biggest rival, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is leaving the PC business altogether and its new top rival now appears to be Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). In the first news bit, Chinese media are quoting a Lenovo executive saying his company is on track to become Russia’s largest PC seller in the next two years. (English article) The second bit has Lenovo trying to spiff up its image by announcing a chic new line of ultra-portable laptops, clearly more aimed at developed markets (company announcement), while the third bit cites unnamed sources saying Lenovo’s new game console, the eeDoo, won’t debut on schedule this month for unspecified reasons. (English article) The Russian campaign is clearly a smart and necessary move, as that market, one of the world’s five BRICS, is the kind of place where Lenovo can best leverage its expertise as a emerging specialist and lay the foundation for solid future growth. The new line of ultra-light computers, aimed more at developed markets, is a nod to the future, taking Lenovo head-to-head with Apple, which currently dominates that space, both in terms of chic and ultra-portability. If Lenovo wants to compete in developed markets it will need to make more moves like this, though I personally think this particular campaign will flop. After all, no one associates Lenovo with chic, at least not yet, and it will take more than a few new PC models to change that image. As to the game console business, my response is a resounding “Who cares?” Lenovo clearly wants to diversify its products to compete in as many computing areas as possible,  but the console business is a dying animal that Lenovo should ignore and focus on products with a brighter future.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s campaign to win Russia is a bold and necessary step to confirm its place as the world’s top emerging markets PC maker, but its bid to become a fashion leader looks misguided.

最近有几则关于联想公司的消息耐人寻味，联想看似正在探索公司发展的新方向。随着惠普剥离个人电脑业务，联想新的最大竞争对手似乎换成了苹果。第一则消息称，中国媒体援引联想高管的报导称，联想将努力在两年後成为俄罗斯最大的个人电脑卖家。第二则消息称，联想宣布一系列超级轻薄的笔记本电脑，这明显是瞄准了发达国家市场；联想尝试以此转变公司形象。第三则消息援引未具名的消息人士称，联想的新游戏机eeDoo本月将不会如期上市，但没有透露具体原因。进军俄罗斯显然是明智之举，也很有必要。在俄罗斯市场，联想能够最大限度地发挥自身的专家优势，并为将来的稳步成长打下基础。以发达国家市场为主打的最新系列超轻薄电脑是对未来的试探，将联想推向与苹果正面竞争的舞台，当前，苹果主导这个市场。如果联想希望在发达国家市场竞争，将需要在这方面多做努力，不过我个人认为本次活动将落败。毕竟还没有人，至少现在还没有人将联想和时尚型产品联系到一起。联想需要推出多款新机型来改变这一形象。至于游戏机业务，我的感觉是“谁去关心它？”，联想显然是希望以多元化产品在尽可能多的科技领域投入市场竞争，但是游戏机业务是个夕阳产业，联想应该对其敬而远之，聚焦于具有更光明未来的产品。

一句话：联想希望赢得俄罗斯市场的举动很大胆、也很有必要，是证明其全球最大新兴市场个人电脑生产商地位的重要一步，但公司希望成为流行科技产品行业领导者的努力看似有些误入歧途。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”