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Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

By newsdoug on September 8, 2011

Alibaba and Yahoo: time to mend fences The sudden firing of Carol Bartz, the hard-nosed CEO of search giant Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), is all the talk of the tech world today, and I have no doubt the folks at Alibaba Group, who took every opportunity to bad-mouth this woman, are quietly celebrating the news. (English article) But if he’s smart, Alibaba chief Jack Ma should do more than just celebrate Bartz’s departure, and reach out to the Yahoo board to try and mend fences and even play a role in helping to choose a new CEO that can work constructively with China’s leading e-commerce company, which is 40 percent owned by Yahoo. Ma never tried to hide his animosity towards Bartz, a woman he considered brash and lacking vision, when she replaced his good friend Jerry Yang at the helm of Yahoo several years back in a bid to rescue a company that was rapidly losing ground to more nimble rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). Ma, through well-placed leaks to the media, made it known repeatedly over the last 2 years that he wished Yahoo would sell its stake in Alibaba, and did everything he could to line up potential buyers. But Bartz never took the bait, realizing the Alibaba stake was worth up to $10 billion, thus accounting for a large piece of Yahoo’s market cap, which now stands at $17 billion. Of course, now all the enmity is history, and Ma should take advantage of the moment to see if he can lay the foundations for a more constructive relationship by reaching out to Yahoo’s board rather than waiting for the board or eventual new CEO to come to him. Six months ago I would have said that Ma, who rightly sees himself as one of China’s earliest e-commerce visionaries, was too proud to make such a move. But after a bruising scandal earlier this year that saw him harshly criticized for his secret spin-off of Alibaba’s e-payments unit, AliPay (previous post), he appears to have become a humbler person and may even believe he’s human again! Given all the recent developments, I’d say there’s a very good chance these two partners with such a stormy past might finally be able to sit down together and forge a good new relationship that benefits everyone.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s Jack Ma has a golden opportunity to reset his relationship with Yahoo following the firing of its brash CEO, and is likely to reach out to the US company to mend fences.

雅虎(YHOO.O)突然解雇首席执行官巴茨（Carol Bartz），是今天业内的热议话题，我相信，不放过任何攻击巴茨机会的阿里巴巴集团正在暗中庆祝。但如果马云聪明的话，就不只该庆祝巴茨下课，而应采取更多行动，与雅虎董事会接触，力争改善双方关系，甚至积极帮助雅虎挑选一名能与阿里巴巴建设性合作的新掌门。雅虎持有阿里巴巴40%的股份。马云从不掩饰他对巴茨的厌恶之情。马云认为，巴茨傲慢无礼且缺乏远见。几年前，谷歌(GOOG.O)迅速抢占雅虎市场份额，马云好友杨致远当时试图力挽狂澜，而之後巴茨取代杨致远成为雅虎CEO。近两年，马云巧妙地通过媒体，多次表达希望雅虎出售阿里巴巴股份的意愿，并竭尽所能寻找潜在买家。但巴茨从未让马云如愿，因为雅虎所持有的阿里巴巴股份价值已高达100亿美元，在雅虎170亿美元市值中占很大比例。当然，这些都是过去的事了，马云应利用这次机会，与雅虎董事会进行接触，力争为一个更具建设性的合作夥伴关系奠基，而不是坐等雅虎董事会任命新的CEO。如果在六个月前，我会认为，马云自尊心太强，不屑于采取如此举措。但今年早些时候，马云秘密转让支付宝股权遭抨击後，似乎变得更谦逊，甚至令人相信他又有人情味了！鉴于上述最新进展，我敢说，雅虎和阿里巴巴有望冰释前嫌，可能终于会坐下谈判，建设新的双赢合作关系。

一句话：雅虎解雇CEO巴茨，是阿里巴巴董事长马云与雅虎关系重启的绝佳机会，马云很可能会与雅虎接触，改善双方合作关系。

Tidbits: UMPay, Giant Interactive, China Telecom

By newsdoug on August 31, 2011

Today marks the launch of a new item consisting of occasional tidbits that aren’t big enough for individual articles but look interesting nonetheless, along with a thought or two on what it all means.

— UMPay: Chinese media are reporting that this joint venture between industry powerhouses China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) is applying for a license to provide electronic payment services. (English article) Given the two venture partners’ dominant position in both of their spaces, such a venture could quickly become a major player, threatening smaller e-payments companies as well as bigger ones like Alibaba’s Alipay.

— Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA): The company has announced a payout date of September 9 for its massive one-time dividend of $3 per share, which amounts to a whopping 36 percent of its latest closing share price. (company announcement) Its stock has risen about 50 cents a share since it announced the dividend early this month, clearly far less than the size of the dividend. I’ll be watching closely to see how the shares trade on September 12, after the dividend is paid.

— China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA): Chinese media report the company recently launched a tender for more than 3 million set-top boxes — the clearest sign yet that China’s leading fixed-line carrier is close to a major launch for a video-on-demand type service that it has long talked about but has yet to appear. (English article) Such a service could provide a major source of new income, as the company struggles with steady declines for its fixed-line phone business.

360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

By newsdoug on August 26, 2011

China Internet froth builds as 360Buy dumps Alipay Perhaps I’m becoming a bit biased due to my belief that China is in the midst of an Internet bubble, but the latest word from online retailing giant 360Buy that it is cutting off Alibaba’s Alipay online payments service to me looks like the latest sign of a swollen China Internet sector under growing duress. As many will recall, 360Buy made headlines earlier this year when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion in new funding, a record for a private Chinese Internet company and just one of a large number of fundings of $100 million or more as both domestic and foreign investors piled onto the China Internet bandwagon. (previous post) One of the 360Buy investors, Russia’s Digital Sky Media, justified the massive investment by saying the company could be worth a staggering $10 billion — about triple the value of most of China’s biggest Internet firms excluding titans Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700). So I find it a little surprising that 360Buy CEO Liu Qiangdong is citing Alipay’s annual costs of about 5-6 million yuan, or less than $1 million, as the reason behind is company’s decision to cut off the service. (Chinese article) I’m certainly not in favor of needlessly wasting money, but for a company that just raised $1.5 billion to say an annual expense of $1 million is too high, especially in a high-growth area like e-payments, sounds to me like 360Buy is coming under increasing pressure to slash costs as its new impatient investors push it to become profitable — something that may not happen soon due to fierce competition in China’s e-commerce market. This latest move by 360Buy, combined with recent massive layoffs by Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent, (previous post) are just the latest signs of China’s growing Internet bubble, which could start to burst in dramatic fashion in the next 6 months.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s termination of its agreement to offer Alipay e-payment services is the latest sign of a building Internet bubble in China.

也许我是有点偏见，我认为中国互联网正出现泡沫。不过从京东商城近日宣布停用支付宝来看，似乎确实印证中国互联网产业面临更大压力。许多人应该都还记得，京东商城今年早些时候获得海外15亿美元融资，京东商城投资方之一–俄罗斯投资公司DST当时大谈此宗投资的合理性，称京东商城价值高达100亿美元。因此现在京东CEO刘强东以“费率高”为由，宣布停止与支付宝合作，让我有点意外，毕竟京东每年付给支付宝的费用也就是500-600万元人民币，还不足100万美元。我当然不是主张不必要的浪费，但作为刚融资15亿美元的京东商城，说每年100万美元的电子支付费用太高，让人感觉似乎京东商城在降低成本方面压力加大，因为投资方要求其实现盈利，而这在眼下中国竞争激烈的电子商务市场来说很难。京东商城此举，加之高朋网裁员，都是中国互联网呈现泡沫的迹象，也许未来六个月中我们会看到泡沫开始戏剧性破灭。

一句话：京东商城停用支付宝，是中国互联网产业出现泡沫的最新迹象。

Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定马云公关赚钱两不误

By newsdoug on July 31, 2011

Jack Ma pulls sleight of hand with Alipay After months of wrangling, Alibaba Group Chairman Jack Ma has finally reached a settlement of his dispute with stakeholders Softbank (Tokyo: 9984) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) over the spin-off of the company’s Alipay electronic payments service, in what looks to be both a PR and monetary victory for Ma himself. (company announcement) It’s hard to say too much without knowing more about the financial structure of Alibaba, but the fact that the company will only get 37.5 percent of any proceeds from a future Alipay IPO, as stipulated in the terms of the agreement, looks like Alibaba — which counts Yahoo and Softbank as its controlling stakeholders — is getting surprisingly little from this investment that it once presumably owned completely. Terms of the deal say the parties expect Alipay to be valued at anywhere from $2 billion to $6 billion by the time an IPO or other “liquidity event” occurs, which means that Alibaba Group will get as little as little as $750 million from this asset by the time it goes public, which one might expect in the next 2-3 years. Despite an official announcement filled with lots of happy quotes from all three parties, including Softbank’s waxing on the importance of trust, this deal seems to hint of more conflict ahead as undoubtedly both Yahoo and Softbank will constantly worry that Jack Ma is trying to take advantage of them again in the years ahead. In this version of events that has just been announced, Jack Ma seems to come out the winner most ways you look at it, taking control of Alipay by only giving a third of the company to his partners, and also looking reasonable to the world after his childish behavior throughout this drawn-out conflict. If I were Yahoo or Softbank, I would try to get out of my Alibaba investment sooner rather than later, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both of these companies try to sell their stake in this troubled company by the end of this year.

Bottom line: Jack Ma has won a PR and financial victory in his new Alipay settlement with Yahoo and Softbank, with more stormy relations between these 3 partners likely in the months ahead.

经过数月的争吵，阿里巴巴集团董事长马云终於就其与两大股东软银<9984.T>和雅虎<YHOO.O>就支付宝股权转让事件达成协议，对马云来说，似乎是公关和财富双赢。在对阿里巴巴财务结构所知甚少的情况下，我们很难就此事过多评论，但事实是，根据协议条款，阿里巴巴只能获得支付宝上市收益的37.5%，阿里巴巴似乎从这笔投资中所获甚少。预计支付宝将在未来两三年上市。尽管正式声明中充满了三方的友好表示，但该协议似乎暗示着未来会出现更多冲突，因雅虎和软银无疑都担心，马云未来几年会再次试图占他们的便宜。马云似乎怎麽看都是此次事件的最大赢家：首先，只把三分之一的公司出让给合作夥伴便掌控了支付宝；其次，通过这一旷日持久的纷争，协议的达成对世人也是个合理交待。如果我是雅虎或软银，我会努力尽早撤出对阿里巴巴的投资。如果在今年年底前看到两公司或其中之一试图出售阿里巴巴的股份，我一点也不会感到意外。

一句话：在此次与雅虎、软银就支付宝股权转让的纷争中，马云公关赚钱两不误，而三方未来数月的关系料不会一帆风顺。

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