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New Regulatory, Competitive Waves Hit E-Commerce 监管和竞争冲击电子商务领域

Turbulence continues to pelt China’s e-commerce sector, with new reports showing how rampant competition is pushing up costs as an industry regulator gets looks into anti-monopoly claims against top online mall operator Taobao Mall. A new foreign media report cites the top executive at luxury e-commerce site Xiu.com saying that rents for the massive warehouses required by most online merchants have soared in the last year, as players like 360Buy and Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian all vie for facilities near major cities where they can store and then ship their goods. (English article) Global e-commerce leader Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) has joined the fray, announcing last week that its China operation was opening a 120,000 square meter facility in the city of Kunshan, not far from Shanghai, quadrupling its warehouse space in the affluent Yangtze River Delta region. (previous post) The soaring warehouse rents are just the latest headache for the overheated e-commerce sector, where most major players are already hemorrhaging money as the industry heads for a much needed consolidation that is likely to come by the middle of next year. Meantime, domestic media report the Commerce Ministry is entering the e-commerce fray by launching an anti-monopoly investigation into Taobao Mall, Alibaba’s B2C operation, in response to merchant complaints that the online mall operator used its dominant position to unilaterally force a massive fee hike on its merchants, leading many small- and mid-sized sellers to rebel. (English article) I personally think this latest Commerce Ministry investigation is a bit misguided, as there’s plenty of competition in the e-commerce space though less so in the online mall sector. If the ministry really wants to chase someone for anti-monopoly violations, it should focus on online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which controls nearly 80 percent of the market.

Bottom line: Soaring warehouse rents are the latest sign of overheating in China’s e-commerce space, which is also facing the threat of increasingly heavy-handed regulation by Beijing.

Related postings 相关文章:

Amazon Name Shift Signals China Ramp-Up 亚马逊改名背后折射中国野心

Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

China Regulors Threaten E-Commerce, Group Buying 官方监管威胁到电子商务与团购业务

Alibaba’s Etao Faces New Merchant Revolt

E-commerce leader Alibaba Group looks set to soon get its long-awaited wish for separation from major stakeholder Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), but it won’t have much time to celebrate as new fires seem to be popping up everywhere for nearly all of its major businesses. The latest crisis for the increasingly embattled company has cropped up at its Etao search site, which Alibaba is trying to build up as a specialist in e-commerce searches that can eventually rival online search titan Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). Chinese media are reporting that Etao has confirmed that it is no longer indexing search information from sites for a number of major online retailers, including general merchandiser Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) and electronics giant Suning (Shenzhen: 002024) (Chinese article). The confirmation comes just a week after another leading e-commerce site, 360Buy, hinted it may block its pages from Etao searches (previous post), and indeed 360Buy was among the new list of confirmed companies whose pages will no longer be indexed by Etao. With all these major online retailers blocking their material from Etao searches, and the list likely to grow, Alibaba must certainly be worried about the future viability of Etao as a true e-commerce search engine. This latest crisis follows an uprising earlier this month by independent merchants on Alibaba’s B2C platform, Taobao Mall, after the site sharply hiked its fees. That same group of merchants, which has been wreaking havoc on the Taobao Mall site, later moved its rabble-rousing campaign to Alibaba’s electronic payments site, Alipay, as well. (previous post) While all of these crises rage, Alibaba got a rare piece of good news as domestic media reported that Yahoo is looking to sell its 40 percent stake in Alibaba, as the US web giant tries to dispell broader talk that the entire company itself is for sale. Alibaba has long clamored for Yahoo to sell the stake amid friction between the two companies, so clearly it should be happy about this news. But with all the crises now happening in its own businesses, Alibaba won’t have much time to celebrate and indeed might wish it had an ally to help it in this time of trouble.

Bottom line: Alibaba may soon get its official independence from major stakeholder Yahoo, but it won’t have time to celebrate as it faces an escalating crisis at its Etao search site.

Related postings 相关文章:

Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

Taobao Mall’s IPO March Collides With Merchant Uprising 淘宝商城IPO或因商户“起义”被推迟

Alibaba Sharpens Focus in Yahoo Buy-Out, Taobao Mall 阿里巴巴回购雅虎所持股权有望

Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

Embattled Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba is looking more and more like a fortress under attack these days, facing assaults on two fronts in the latest chapter of its ongoing spats with the rest of the online world. The first and more serious of those spats has seen smaller online merchants, upset over huge fee hikes at Taobao Mall, Alibaba’s main B2C site, launch an assault on Alibaba’s Alipay electronic payments site, according to domestic media reports. (English article; Chinese article) The reports are quite colorful, with enraged small- and medium-sized merchants, who have complained the fee hikes are designed to weed them out, withdrawing massive amounts of money from Alipay one day late last week, and then blocking access to the service completely. This mass movement comes after the same group of merchants wreaked havoc on Taobao Mall itself a couple of weeks ago by making mass bogus purchases from large merchants on the site, only to cancel their transactions hours later. (previous post) Beijing has reportedly stepped in to try to mediate the dispute and Alibaba itself has made some conciliatory gestures, but obviously the merchants aren’t happy with progress so far and the damage to Taobao Mall looks set to drag on for at least a couple of months, if not longer. In the second development, media are reporting that 360Buy, one of China’s largest e-commerce sites, is hinting it may soon block its pages from searches on Etao, Alibaba’s site that specializes in e-commerce related searches. (Chinese article) Such a break would be a major blow to Etao, and would follow 360Buy’s cut off of ties with Alipay back in August, reflecting a broader feud. (previous post) Many in the online world already blame Alibaba founder Jack Ma for the negative overseas sentiment towards China Internet stocks due to his high profile dispute with Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) earlier this year over ownership of Alipay. These latest disputes will hardly help his company’s damaged reputation, and could mark the latest chapter in a longer decline for the company.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s latest disputes with smaller merchants on its Taobao platform and e-commerce giant 360Buy mark the latest chapter in what could become a long-term decline for the firm.

Related postings 相关文章:

Taobao Mall’s IPO March Collides With Merchant Uprising 淘宝商城IPO或因商户“起义”被推迟

Alibaba Sharpens Focus in Yahoo Buy-Out, Taobao Mall 阿里巴巴回购雅虎所持股权有望

Alibaba.com Blows Smoke With HiChina Spin-Off Plan 阿里巴巴网络分拆万网放烟幕弹

China Regulors Threaten E-Commerce, Group Buying 官方监管威胁到电子商务与团购业务

After standing aside and letting its online sector develop largely unhindered for the last decade, China is suddenly showing a worrisome trend of trying to regulate everything on its often unruly Internet, a move that, while needed, could also interfere with market forces. In separate developments on the same day, media are reporting Beijing is preparing to regulate both its group buying sites as well as its e-commerce sector to bring more order to these spaces that have become ultra-competitive in the last 1-2 years. (group buying article; e-commerce article) In this case the reason behind each move is unrelated. For group buying, the reason seems simply to be a desire to regulate an industry that has become ultra-competitive, with quality control virtually non-existent and many players teetering on the brink of closing. (previous post) For e-commerce, the issue is directly related to a massive fee hike last week by Alibaba’s Taobao Mall, China’s leading B2C site, that led to an uprising by smaller merchants who complained they were being targeted for elimination from the site. These two new rounds of regulation for major emerging sectors follow other recent reports that China will soon regulate the vibrant micro-blogging space, and months after it issued its first round of electronic payment licenses and as it prepares to issue online mapping licenses. There definitely seems to be a trend emerging here, which looks a bit worrisome in light of Beijing’s past record at heavy-handed interference in emerging tech sectors. In one case a few years back, Beijing’s heavy regulatory hand effectively killed a vibrant SMS industry that was once a major source of revenue for the likes of Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES). It has also attempted to regulate online games from time to time, which may be partly responsible for that industry’s unexciting growth profile of recent years after years of explosive growth. While some form of direction is certainly needed to bring order to the unruly e-commerce and online auction sectors, it’s far from clear to me that this direction needs to come from Beijing, which instead would be better advised to provide some “guidance” and let market forces do the main work.

Bottom line: New campaigns by Beijing to regulate e-commerce and online auctions are misguided efforts that will ultimately severely hamper growth in both sectors.

Related postings 相关文章:

Taobao Mall’s IPO March Collides With Merchant Uprising 淘宝商城IPO或因商户“起义”被推迟

Group Buying Turmoil Grows With 55tuan Layoffs 窝窝团撤站裁员 团购业整合在即

Investors Punish Sina for Slow Weibo Progress

News Digest: October 11, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on October 11. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China State Investor Buys Shares in Four Biggest Banks as Valuations Slump (English article)

Alibaba Said to Seek Temasek Financing to Buy Yahoo’s 40% Stake in Itself (English article)

◙ Rumor: TD-LTE Trials Stalled in Two Cities (English article; Chinese article)

Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Delays Internet TVs Due to Regulatory Difficulties (English article)

Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) Announces New and Improved Warranty Terms (PRNewswire)

Alibaba: The Little Genie That Roared?

This week will see a limited offering of commentaries during China’s National Day holiday, starting with the latest provocative words on and about Alibaba Group, including Jack Ma’s latest interest in global expansion and critical words about the controversial Alibaba chairman from another major web executive. Jack Ma mildly surprised the world over the weekend when he declared that his company is “very interested” in Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), the struggling global search player which also happens to own 40 percent of Alibaba. (English article) The context of his remarks strongly implied that Ma was interested not only in buying back Yahoo’s 40 percent Alibaba stake, but also in potentially buying Yahoo itself. If such an outcome came to pass, it would certainly look like a “Mouse that Roared” scenario, a reference to the 1959 movie that sees a tiny European nation declare war on the US, and then go on to win. In this case, I could easily see Ma joining a group of private equity or other investors that eventually goes on to buy out Yahoo, and then Ma being named as Yahoo’s new CEO. Whether this is a good idea is a different matter. Ma has little or no experience running a major global company like Yahoo, and his time might be better spent staying at home to tend to his only listed company, China’s biggest B2B marketplace Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688), which is also struggling. There’s also no reason to believe that Ma can succeed where a group of seasoned big-name Western executives before him have failed in the campaign to revive Yahoo. But that said, perhaps Ma’s outside perspective could be just the medicine to turn Yahoo around. If he ends up taking over, I would still peg his chances of success at just 20 percent, but not rule out success completely. In the second development, Joe Chen, CEO of Renren (NYSE: RENN), often called the Facebook of China, has lashed out at Ma and Alibaba for greatly contributing to the current confidence crisis in US-listed China stocks through his controversial spin-off of Alibaba’s e-payments unit, Alipay, earlier this year. (English article) I won’t go into all the background here (previous post), but Chen may have a point to some extent, as the high-profile misstep captured global headlines for several months and spotlighted the questionable business tactics used by many Chinese firms. Still, it might be a slight exaggeration to blame Ma for such a systemic problem, and as I said last week, the sell-off that has seen many US-listed China companies share prices tank in the last few months now looks more like a long-overdue correction in their overinflated share prices. (previous post)

Bottom line: A successful bid by Alibaba’s Jack Ma to take over and run Yahoo would likely end in failure, with only a 20 percent chance of success.

Related postings 相关文章:

Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

Alibaba.com Blows Smoke With HiChina Spin-Off Plan 阿里巴巴网络分拆万网放烟幕弹

More Internet Froth in Alibaba Valuation, Dangdang Price War 阿里巴巴估值奇高凸显网络泡沫

More Internet Froth in Alibaba Valuation, Dangdang Price War 阿里巴巴估值奇高凸显网络泡沫

The latest signs of froth in China’s bulging Internet bubble are popping up in several places this week, with new investors in e-commerce leader Alibaba Group boasting a ridiculously high valuation for the company, while the latest price war by Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) underscores the overheated competition. And in perhaps the most revealing of the new developments, even state-owned dinosaur CCTV is jumping on the e-commerce bandwagon, with the launch of its CNTV Mall. (English article) Let’s begin with Alibaba, which has received new investment from a group of blue-chip investors including Singapore’s Temasek, private equity firm Silver Lake Partners and Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies (DST), which are boasting their investment values the company at as much as $32 billion. (English article) This sounds ridiculous for a company that analysts were estimating was worth around $10 billion just months ago, and is reminiscent of DST’s estimate earlier this year shortly after it and others invested $1.5 billion in e-commerce site 360Buy that that company was worth up to $10 billion. (previous post) I wouldn’t be surprised if DST was the one giving the $32 billion figure for Alibaba, and would advise DST’s chief Yuri Milner to take a course in remedial finance before throwing out more such overinflated numbers in the future. In terms of Dangdang, the company is reportedly pressuring consumer electronics companies that sell on its site to lower their prices below those of comparable products on 360Buy, in a campaign that a Dangdang insider says has been named “operation decapitation”. (English article) The name of the campaign itself reflects the hyper competition that has appeared in China’s e-commerce space following the infusion of billions of dollars in new investment over the past year. But the biggest sign of a bubble in my view is the arrival of China Central Television, better known as CCTV, to the market. You know that when a slow-moving dinosaur like CCTV finally joins the game, the party is almost over.

Bottom line: A sky-high new valuation for Alibaba Group and the latest cut-throat campaign from Dangdang are the latest signs of a looming burst for China’s Internet bubble.

本周种种迹象表明,中国互联网泡沫正在成形。阿里巴巴市值被投资者吹捧到高得离谱,当当网(DANG.N)近期打响价格战凸显行业竞争白热化。最能说明问题的莫过于CCTV也进军电子商务领域,推出中国网络电视台商城(CNTV Mall)。首先,来谈谈阿里巴巴。该集团近期获得多家蓝筹投资机构投资,包括新加坡淡马锡控股、私募公司Silver Lake Partners及俄罗斯风投公司数字天空科技(DST)。这些机构称,他们对阿里巴巴的投资,促使该公司市值高达320亿美元。这听起来十分荒谬,因为仅在数月前,分析师估算的阿里巴巴市值仅为100亿美元左右。这不禁让人想起今年早些时候,DST与沃尔玛和百度向京东商城投资15亿美元后不久,就对京东商城估值100亿美元。如果是DST提供阿里巴巴市值320亿美元的数据,我一点也不会感到惊讶,我会建议,DST执行长米尔纳(Yuri Milner)以後夸大这类数据前,应先学会补齐财务知识。有报导称,当当网正向其消费电子产品供应商施压,要求其售价应低于京东商城同类产品,当当网内部人士透露,此举被命名为“斩首行动”。这一名字本身就反映了中国电子商务行业竞争白热化的现状。该领域过去一年来获得了数十亿计美元的新注资。但我认为,中国互联网泡沫的最大迹象是CCTV进军该市场。要知道,像CCTV这样行动缓慢的庞然大物加入时,游戏就基本结束了。

一句话:对阿里巴巴集团估值过高,当当网启动“斩首行动”,这些都是中国互联网泡沫破裂的最新迹象。

Related postings 相关文章:

Muddy Waters, Taobao Mall Wake Up to China E-commerce Hype

360Buy IPO: Let the Delays Begin 京东商城放缓IPO进程

Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

News Digest: September 23, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 23. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

Unicom (HKEx: 762) Buys 8 Mln 3G Smartphones to Ease Supply Shortage (Chinese article)

Alibaba Said to Be Valued at $32 Billion as Temasek, DST Invest in Company (English article)

Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) Announces Plan to Repurchase Up to $15 Million in Shares (PRNewswire)

SMG, Endemol Partner on TV Content Production (English article)

◙ Deadline Announced for Lead Plaintiffs in the Class Action Suit Against SinoTech Energy (Businesswire)

Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

It’s only 3 months since Alibaba split its consumer-oriented Taobao Website into two units, and already it’s starting to hype the more promising of the  two, the B2C-focused Taobao Mall, in what’s no doubt the run-up to an IPO that could come as soon as next year. At the same time, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) is continuing with its battle to win back credibility following a scandal earlier this year, in a clear divergence of strategy for these two sister companies that are both part of Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba Group. Let’s look at Taobao Mall first. The 3-month-old company has held what was probably its first stand-alone press conference, in which it boasted it expects its sales volume to double to 200 billion yuan next year, or about $31 billion, and where it announced a new strategy where it will open its site to other online retailers like Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian in addition to traditional retail names like Dell. (Nasdaq: DELL) (English article) President Daniel Zhang was a big cagier about Taobao Mall’s profits, only saying the company’s profit margin has reached that of other Chinese Internet companies. But clearly the company is feeling pressure to go to market sooner rather than later to return some investment dollars to companies like Japan’s Softbank, who have been waiting 7 years now for a return on their money. I’d look for this IPO to happen as soon as Taobao Mall can show some meaningful profits, probably sometime next year. Meantime, sister company Alibaba.com continues to be on the defensive, following a scandal earlier this year where bogus retailers were cheating buyers on the company’s B2B site. (previous post) Chinese media are reporting Alibaba.com has embarked on a campaign to verify the identities of all of its sellers, clearly in a bid to try and restore confidence to buyers whose numbers have plateaued and even started to fall since the scandal began earlier this year. (Chinese article) Look for this PR campaign to continue and for Alibaba.com to post more tepid results for the next year until it regains the trust of the online B2B buying community.

Bottom line: Taobao Mall’s admission of online retailers to its site is hype for an IPO as early as next year, while sister site Alibaba.com’s will need at least a year to rebuild its credibility following a recent scandal.

距离阿里巴巴将淘宝商城从淘宝网拆分仅仅过去3个月,聚焦于B2C的淘宝商城比淘宝网更有发展潜力,并且至早明年就可以准备上市。与此同时,阿里巴巴B2B(HKEx: 1688)作为淘宝网和淘宝商城的姐妹公司,仍在努力消除年初中国供应商丑闻带来的负面影响。昨 天,三个月大的淘宝商城举行了首场独立身份的新闻发布会,预期2012年交易额目标为2000亿元(合313亿美元),为今年交易额的2倍。会上还宣布淘 宝商城除了像以往那样和传统品牌如戴尔(Nasdaq: DELL)合作外还会与网店结盟,比如沃尔玛(NYSE: WMT)投资的一号店。淘宝商城总裁张勇对其利润守口如瓶,仅仅说与目前的中国互联网公司持平。但是显然公司面临早日上市以回报投资者的压力,软银已经为 投资回报等待了7年之久。我认为一旦淘宝宣布其利润达到某个关键数值就会上市,时间可能在明年。与此同时,阿里巴巴B2B年初发生的信任危机导致临阵换将,这一事件的影响至今仍未消除。中国媒体报道,阿里巴巴推出一系列新举措以使入住者重拾信任,但上述公关举措是否能如愿让股票表现回到风波之前的水平,仍不明朗。

一句话:淘宝商城对在线零售商的结盟或许是为了可能在明年达成上市而炒作,与此同时阿里巴巴B2B年内仍要致力于消除中国供应商事件的不利影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

Taobao Mall Takes Hit with Drug Sale Ban 中国规范网络售药 或重创淘宝商城

Alibaba Resignations: Is the Magic Gone?

 

Muddy Waters, Taobao Mall Wake Up to China E-commerce Hype

After several years of near-nonstop hype about the potential of e-commerce in China, notorious China short seller Carson Block and leading e-commerce operator Alibaba Group are both finally waking up to the same reality that much of the talk is vastly exaggerated. In many ways, this reality should come as no surprise to anyone, as even bullish market watchers say that all online sales in China stood at a relatively modest $50 billion last year. So even if they double over the next 2-3 years, we’re still only looking at $100 billion in overall sales by 2015 — a fraction of levels in developed markets like the US and hardly enough to support the huge number of online merchants that have exploded onto the scene in China with billions of dollars in new funding over the last year. According to one media report, Carson Block, who does business through his firm, Muddy Waters, said many Western investors see a small segment of newly wealthy Chinese consumers in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, and mistakenly extrapolate that to the entire nation of 1.3 billion, even though a big majority of those people live on annual incomes of $2,000 or less. (English article) Meantime, a report in the Chinese media is saying that Alibaba Group’s leading B2C site, Taobao Mall, has raised the threshold for online merchants to use its site, partly in a bid to squeeze more money out of them but also to weed out the many companies that stand little chance of long-term success and could potential damage the site’s reputation with poor customer service and fraudulent business practices. (Chinese article) Taobao’s sister company, Hong Kong-listed Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) is currently dealing with a similar situation in the overhyped B2B space, following a scandal earlier this year that saw its CEO resign after the company disclosed a relatively large number of fraudulent merchants operating on its site. (previous post) Alibaba, Block and others are finally waking up to the reality that China’s e-commerce market, while full of long-term potential, has become overhyped and in need of a clean-up of many smaller, less reputable merchants.

Bottom line: The latest comments from short seller Carson Block and news on Taobao indicate a much-needed cleanup is underway for China’s unruly e-commerce sector, with more to come.

Related postings 相关文章:

Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

E-Payments: Lots of Noise But Little Space

China Internet Bubble Sees Vancl Dressing Down 中国互联网泡沫见证凡客裁员

 

Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

Yihaodian, the online merchant that made headlines earlier this year when it got an investment from global retail giant Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (previous post) looks like the latest company to show signs of distress in China’s growing Internet bubble, following a report that gives it a surprisingly low valuation. According to the report, which cites an unnamed industry source, Wal-Mart, which bought an unspecified stake in the online retailer earlier this year, recently bought another 20 percent for a relatively modest $65 million. (English article) Some simple math will show this puts Yihaodian’s value at about $325 million if the report is correct. The same report cites Yihaodian’s chairman saying reports that Wal-Mart will take over the company are incorrect and that the size of the stake purchase is incorrect as well. But even if the numbers are slightly off, this market valuation for what is presumably an up-and-coming online retailer looks tiny compared to numbers being mentioned for other e-commerce firms, most notably an estimated $10 billion valuation given earlier this year by investors in 360Buy, China’s second biggest online merchant which is now hiring an investment bank for an IPO to raise up to $5 billion. (previous post) I realize that Yihaodian is much smaller than both 360Buy as well as leading online retailer Taobao Mall, owned by Alibaba Group. Still, this $325 million valuation looks like a real bargain for Wal-Mart, and no doubt represents an attempt by the worried seller of the stake, in this case Yihaodian’s controlling shareholder Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318; Shenzhen: 601318), to get back some of its investment before China’s Internet bubble bursts. As the Internet bubble swells and starts to pop, look for more of these sales at bargain prices as investors try to recoup some of their investments before it’s too late.

Bottom line: Wal-Mart’s purchase of 20 percent of online retailer Yihaodian for a bargain price will be followed by similar sales, as investors try to recoup their money before China’s Internet bubble bursts.

Related postings 相关文章:

360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状