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Alibaba: Let’s Get This Show Finished 阿里巴巴和雅虎赶紧“离婚”吧

Let’s get this story finished and move on! I don’t mean to sound impatient, but that’s my first reaction on reading the latest reports about Alibaba’s endless saga in its quest to buy out the 40 percent stake in itself held by Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO). I realize this deal involves a big amount of money, possibly as much as $10 billion, but that said, it’s also quite straightforward since the 2 companies have essentially no shared assets and thus literally all that’s needed is agreement on a price and then for Alibaba to find the financing. According to the latest reports, Alibaba and Yahoo have finally entered into serious discussions, following Yahoo’s naming of a new CEO last month, and the 2 sides fully expect to reach an agreement by mid March. (Chinese article) I personally can’t wait until they  announce a deal, as it will finally mark the end of a major corporate marriage that started with lots of promise, only to see things sour and end with a divorce that has taken way too long to reach. I’m probably being a little unfair here, as a final deal was unlikely to happen until Yahoo finally named a new CEO to replace Carol Bartz, who was a major source of friction between the 2 companies and whose firing last year finally set in process that will finally see Alibaba get its long-sought divorce. From Alibaba’s perspective, the sooner the settlement comes the better, as the divorce has become way too big a distraction as the company hopped from one crisis to the next at many of its core businesses last year, including its oldest B2B Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) site and its promising Taobao Mall, both of which were rocked by scandals that they are still recovering from. For its part, Yahoo also needs to put this story behind it and get to work trying to resuscitate its struggling search business, once a pioneer in the sector but which later lost its way as global giant Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) stole most of its business. A final settlement will not only end the hostilities, but will also leave Yahoo with a nice pile of cash to use to rebuild its business. It will also leave Alibaba with a pile of shares it can sell to more passive investors who are interested in its strong growth potential without wanting a strong say in its bigger management decisions. All that said, my final word to both sides, at least for now is: Let’s really try to end this saga by the mid-March deadline. Believe me, you won’t be the only ones celebrating!

Bottom line: The world will celebrate with Alibaba and Yahoo when they finally finish their divorce, ending an unhappy chapter for both companies that dragged on way too long.

Related postings 相关文章:

Yahoo, Alibaba Dance Nears Finale  雅虎应与阿里巴巴撇清干系

New Loan Brings Alibaba Value Into Focus

Alibaba Scrambles to Prove High Valuation 阿里巴巴高估值或将作茧自缚

News Digest: February 7, 2012 报摘: 2012年2月7日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on February 7. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) to Partner with Ai Ni Group to Export Yunnan Coffee (Businesswire)

Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU) Reports Q4 Unaudited Results (PRNewswire)

Yum (NYSE: YUM) Profit Up as China Keeps Growing (English article)

Citi (NYSE: C) Gets Approval to Issue Credit Cards in China (English article)

Alibaba, Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) to Reach Final Agreement by Mid March – Source (Chinese article)

◙ Latest calendar for Q1 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

News Digest: February 4-6, 2012 报摘: 2012年2月4-6日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on February 4-6. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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7-Eleven To Start Online Development in Interior China Next Year (Chinese article)

Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) In Enhanced Video Sharing on Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo (PRNewswire)

Alibaba’s $3 Bln Capital Raising for Stake Buy-Out Rooted in 6 Banks (Chinese article)

PetroChina (HKEx: 857), Shell Deepen Ties for ‘Powerful’ Shale Potential (English article)

Huawei Could Take Telecoms Equipment Making Crown From Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) (Chinese article)

◙ Latest calendar for Q1 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

Sina Tests Weibo Demand With Paid Offering 新浪试水微博增值收费服务

A half year after spinning off its Weibo unit with an aim to earning profits from the wildly popular microblogging service, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) is taking the first step to generating significant new revenues from the business by rolling out a new premium paid service. The strategy is certainly necessary if Sina ever wants to earn a profit from Weibo, and I even like the fact that it’s charging a very modest fee for the service, at least initially, which should help attract customers. But I’m still quite skeptical that the strategy will actually work, as it’s always hard to get people to pay for something they’ve grown accustomed to getting for free. Let’s backtrack a moment and look at the details of this latest development, which has Sina rolling out a service that will allow Weibo users to get the new premium service for the modest fee of 5 yuan a month or 50 yuan a year, translating to less than $1 per month. (English article) The new service will allow users to get SMS notifications for some of their incoming posts — an offering that doesn’t sound that interesting since many users already access Weibo over their mobile phones. In theory the new service could be a major revenue generator, since the company could generate more than 1 billion yuan in annual revenue if even just 10 percent of Weibo’s 250 million users signed up for the service. But as I said already, the bigger issue will be getting people to pay for a service that they’re used to getting for free. E-commerce leader Alibaba Group has found out that such a switch can indeed be difficult, as reflected by the lackluster performance of its Taobao online auctions service. That service made headlines 7 years ago when it ultimately drove global leader eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) out of the China market by offering its services for free; but since then, Alibaba has had a difficult time making significant profits from the business, due in large part to the fact that users don’t want to pay for something they’ve always received for free. I suspect that Weibo will learn a similar lesson with this latest premium offering, and would advise Sina to look at other options in its drive to make the platform profitable, including developing entirely new services that can leverage Weibo’s large user base.

Bottom line: Weibo’s new premium service is likely to fail due to lack of interest from users who are accustomed to getting the service for free.

Related postings 相关文章:

Sina’s Weibo Suffers New Setback With Lawsuit 吉林市驻京办可能起诉新浪微博

Microblog Clampdown: Only Chapter 1? 实名制向网络行业吹去冷风

Watch Out Weibo, Weixin Is Growing 新浪微博要小心腾讯微信要崛起

News Digest: January 19, 2012

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on January 19. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ China Said to Let Biggest Banks Boost Lending This Quarter to Spur Growth (English article)

American Express (NYSE: AXP) Partners with Chinese Mobile Top-Up Provider Lianlian (Businesswire)

CNOOC (HKEx: 883) Announces Its 2012 Business Strategy and Development Plan (PRNewswire)

◙ China Accounts for 32% of Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) Revenue (English article)

Alibaba, Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) Talks Advance, Buyout Possible By Mid-Feb – Report (Chinese article)

Yang Departure Cuts Final Yahoo-Alibaba Ties 雅虎即将与阿里撇清关系

If Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) was looking for a way to tell the world that its troubled relationship with Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group was nearing an end, then the just-announced resignation of Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang from all his posts at both companies looks like the perfect and very appropriate signal. Yang’s resignation means he will relinquish his positions as a director on the boards of both Yahoo and Alibaba, marking a quiet end to a stormy chapter in both companies’ history. (English article) Yang and Alibaba founder Jack Ma made headlines in 2005 when they announced that Yahoo would buy 40 percent of Alibaba for $1 billion to create a potent partnership that would combine Alibaba’s expertise in e-commerce with Yahoo’s in online search. But it soon became clear that Jack Ma was more interested in Yahoo’s money than anything Yang or his company had to offer in terms of advice — a reality that was fine with both sides as Yang focused on trying to rebuild Yahoo’s core US-focused business as it rapidly lost share to a more nimble Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). All that changed when Yang resigned as Yahoo CEO and yielded the job to Carol Bartz, an executive whose aggressive style clashed with Ma’s own similar style and led to a prolonged period of tense relations between the 2 companies. Through all of that, Yang, who remained as a non-executive board member of Yahoo, continued to maintain personal ties with Alibaba, getting invitations and often attending the Chinese company’s Alifest big annual conference in its hometown of Hangzhou. Yang’s resignation from both the Alibaba and Yahoo boards comes just 2 weeks after Yahoo named Scott Thompson as its new CEO, filling the position that has been vacant since Bartz was fired last year. I suspect the departure was a condition when Thompson agreed to take the job, aimed at giving him a clear mandate to run the company with a fresh start. Alibaba and its bankers have been sending a nonstop series of signals to the market that they have raised enough money to buy out Yahoo’s 40 percent Alibaba stake, and Yang’s departure should remove the final reminder of the forces behind the original tie-up that can let this much-needed divorce finally go forward. When that happens, which could be in the next 2 months, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Yang suddenly appear in Alibaba, either as an investor or perhaps even an executive in one of the company’s units.

Bottom line: Jerry Yang’s resignation from the boards of Yahoo and Alibaba signal a pending divorce of the 2 companies, which could see Yang ultimately end up as an investor or executive at Alibaba.

Related postings 相关文章:

Yahoo, Alibaba Dance Nears Finale  雅虎应与阿里巴巴撇清干系

Alibaba Scrambles to Prove High Valuation 阿里巴巴高估值或将作茧自缚

Alibaba Tests Waters for Yahoo Buyout – Again 阿里巴巴再试水竞购雅虎股权

Taobao Mall Becomes Tianmao: IPO Coming?

The e-commerce world is buzzing this morning about the new cat in town, a website called Tianmao, translating to “Sky Cat,” which is the new Internet domain where Alibaba Group’s industry leading Taobao Mall will set up its new shop. (Chinese article) The move is the latest in a series designed to separate the highly popular online shopping mall from its roots in Alibaba’s broader Taobao family of companies catering to consumer buyers, and looks like the latest step in the march towards an IPO for the unit, probably sometime later this year. Alibaba started Taobao about a decade ago as a specialist in the then-popular online auctions business, also known as C2C, where it fought a high-profile battle with global industry leader eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) that ultimately saw the US giant largely withdraw from the domestic Chinese market. Since then, however, Alibaba’s online auctions business has been a lackluster performer, in part because it refuses to charge for most services; instead, Taobao has found more success in its Taobao Mall, an online shopping mall, known in the industry as a B2C site, populated by third-party retailers that are generally quite large and are more than happy to pay handsome fees for the privilege of renting a space on the site. Alibaba formally split off Taobao Mall from the rest of Taobao in a reorganization last year (previous post), and has been quietly building it up as a separate stand-alone business. The new company experienced a bit of controversy last fall when it announced a sharp price hike for smaller merchants, prompting them to rise up and create widespread disruption, saying the move was aimed at kicking them off the site. (previous post) Stakeholders of Alibaba, whose only listed unit is its B2B site, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688), have repeatedly pressed founder Jack Ma to do more IPOs for his company’s other units to let them get more money back from their investments; but Ma has countered by saying Taobao will never make an IPO. This latest name change for Taobao Mall looks like a clever way for Ma to keep his promise, while moving ahead with an IPO for this successful unit that could raise several billion dollars or more if and when it comes later this year.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s renaming of its popular Taobao Mall as Tianmao is the latest step in the march towards a multibillion-dollar IPO  that could come later this year.

Related postings 相关文章:

Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

Taobao Mall’s IPO March Collides With Merchant Uprising 淘宝商城IPO或因商户“起义”被推迟

Alibaba Sharpens Focus in Yahoo Buy-Out, Taobao Mall 阿里巴巴回购雅虎所持股权有望

 

Post Office: A Good E-Commerce Play 中国邮政分拆速递物流可谓电子商务”妙招

I’ve written lots on China’s e-commerce boom and the huge opportunity it provides, but the less visible courier business is a sideline that is quietly zooming to riches as well on the nation’s growing fondness for buying things online. I haven’t written about this lower-profile part of the e-commerce story before now, mostly because the vast majority of courier firms are small local outfits, often operating with a few bikes, some mopeds and perhaps a van or 2. But now local media are saying that China’s postal service wants to spin off its courier and logistics unit into a separate business, which would then be publicly listed. (Chinese article) Of course this kind of plan must still receive many government approvals and would probably require some major internal restructuring, meaning any such spin-off is still likely a year or more away and an IPO would be even further off. But if and when it happens, such an offering would provide an attractive opportunity for investors looking to cash in on China’s e-commerce craze that has seen nearly all major retailers open online shops and has given rise to major online giants like 360Buy, Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), Alibaba’s Taobao Mall and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) invested Yihaodian. Then of course there’s global giant Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), which recently launched a massive new warehouse near Shanghai that will no doubt need thousands of couriers to make sure items get from the facility to their final buyers. Such a postal spin off would also free the new company of many of the burdensome regulations and bureaucracy it now faces, potentially laying the foundation for an eventual Chinese version of a global shipping and logistics company to rival names like UPS (NYSE: UPS) and FedEx. All that said, competition in the courier space is also becoming rampant, similar to the overheated competition among e-commerce companies themselves. Still, this new company, if it takes shape, will have the obvious advantage of huge scale and strong government ties, meaning it could be perfectly placed to cash in on the e-commerce craze for the next 5-10 years.

Bottom line: The China post office’s plan to spin off its courier and logistics service into a separate company for an IPO looks like a great way for investors to cash in on the e-commerce craze.

Related postings 相关文章:

Price Wars Beat Up Online Retailers 网上零售商引爆价格战

New Regulatory, Competitive Waves Hit E-Commerce 监管和竞争冲击电子商务领域

Amazon Name Shift Signals China Ramp-Up 亚马逊改名背后折射中国野心

Yahoo, Alibaba Dance Nears Finale  雅虎应与阿里巴巴撇清干系

I normally don’t like to write about the same deal twice in one week, but in this case things suddenly seem to be moving quickly in the story of faded Internet giant Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), which may soon dispose of some or all of its 40 percent stake in Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba as well as its holdings in Yahoo Japan (Tokyo: 4689). Reports in the foreign media are slightly conflicting, but what’s clear is that the Yahoo board was set to meet on Thursday to discuss a plan that would see it sell either 25 percent of its stake in Alibaba, or perhaps the entire 40 percent stake, under a deal that would be worth around $17 billion. (English article) I had written earlier in the week on other reports that said Alibaba was working with partners to lead a group that would buy out Yahoo entirely (previous post), in a deal that might value Alibaba at around $20 billion. But the latest reports indicate that the Yahoo board would prefer to sell off its valuable Asian assets rather than be acquired outright, and appears to be moving quickly in that direction with the Thursday board meeting. This kind of strategy looks good, as it would allow Yahoo to quickly raise some big cash and also to get rid of a major distraction from these Asian assets as it hires a new chief executive to turn itself around following the recent departure of controversial CEO Carol Bartz. I’m a bit puzzled about why Yahoo might want to hold on to some of its Alibaba stake, as at least one of the reports said the company would still like to keep 15 percent of the Chinese e-commerce giant. In my view, this asset, which Yahoo purchased for around $1 billion in 2005 and which could now be worth about $8 billion, was very successful from an investment perspective but disastrous from a strategic one. A personality clash between Bartz and Ma was largely to blame for the bad relations between the 2 companies, and perhaps Yahoo’s board feels the relationship could be salvaged under a new CEO. But in my view, Jack Ma is a brilliant but very opinionated leader head who is unlikely to listen to anyone whose views differ from his own, and Yahoo would be well advised to completely sell its Alibaba stake, as any attempts at future strategic initiatives between the two sides would most likely end as major disappointments.

Bottom line: Yahoo is on the cusp of selling off its distracting stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo Japan, and should sell off all of its Alibaba holdings to focus on reviving its core search business.

Related postings 相关文章:

Alibaba Scrambles to Prove High Valuation 阿里巴巴高估值或将作茧自缚

Alibaba Tests Waters for Yahoo Buyout – Again 阿里巴巴再试水竞购雅虎股权

Alibaba’s Incredible Shrinking Profit Growth 阿里巴巴盈利呈加速放缓趋势

2011: A Breakthrough Year in Copyright Protection 2011年:中国版权保护取得突破的一年

It seems quite appropriate that 2011 is ending with news that Internet search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which for years symbolized rampant disregard for copyrights on China’s unruly Internet, has been removed from a US list of “notorious markets” for piracy, capping a year that saw great progress in intellectual property protection. (English article) Baidu’s achievement after it signed a series of landmark licensing agreements with major music labels like Universal, Warner (NYSE: WMG) and Sony Music (Tokyo: 6758) in July as it launched a service selling legal copies of their music. (previous post) Baidu’s removal from the list was just the latest major advance in copyright protection, as China’s crowded field of online music and video sites all took new steps to secure exclusive content to set themselves apart from rivals in the competitive sector. The nation’s top 3 video sharing sites, Youku (NYSE: YOKU), Sohu video (Nasdaq: SOHU) and Tudou (NYSE: TUDO) all signed their first big licensing deals during the year to offer TV shows and films from the likes of Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) and Disney (NYSE: DIS). (previous post) Some domestic names like Huayi Brothers (Shenzhen: 300027) signed similar deals, as early signs emerged of a coming renaissance for domestic content makers, an increasing number of which are looking to domestic IPOs to fuel their growth. (previous post) In another interesting development just last week, Youku and Tudou filed a series of copyright infringement lawsuits against each other, showing that these companies themselves could emerge as a potent force to help police against future copyright violations. (previous post) Last but not least, many of the sites themselves are increasingly producing their own exclusive content, with Phoenix New Media (NYSE: FENG) and PPLive announcing such initiatives during the year, which should also help the programming industry’s development. (previous post) Of course, there is still much work to be done. Despite its launch of a legal music service, Baidu continues to operate its popular older music service where swapping of pirated songs is rampant. And while Baidu was removed from the “notorious” list, Alibaba’s Taobao, China’s e-commerce leader, remains on the list for the widespread sale of knock-off products on its site. Still, in all my years covering China tech and media, 2011 certainly looks like a year of major breakthroughs in copyright protection as Chinese firms finally wake up to the reality that piracy isn’t a very good long-term business model.

Bottom line: Baidu’s removal from a US piracy list reflects big progress in the anti-piracy battle in China in 2011, with the campaign likely to maintain momentum into 2012.

Related postings 相关文章:

After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

Video Makers On Cusp of Renaissance 视频制作商或迎来美好时代

Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”:赞助项目

New Loan Brings Alibaba Value Into Focus

New figures coming out of a foreign media report are starting to shed some light on the value Alibaba, China’s biggest e-commerce group, as it moves forward with a deal that would see it lead a group to buy out faded Internet giant Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) and then personally buy back the 40 percent of itself that Yahoo current holds. The interesting element to all this is that based on the latest numbers, Alibaba’s valuation is likely to come in around $20 billion, not bad for a company whose only listed unit, B2B specialist Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) is only worth about $5 billion, but also a far cry from the $32 billion that some would like others to believe. According to the latest report, Alibaba is close to assembling a $4 billion loan that it would use to buy back the 40 percent of itself held by Yahoo after the bigger Yahoo buyout, which itself would be valued at around $25 billion. (English article) We already know from public data that Yahoo’s other big Asia asset, its 35 percent stake in Yahoo Japan (Tokyo: 4689), is worth about $6 billion at current market rates. That means $19 billion of the $25 billion purchase price would cover Yahoo itself and the 40 percent of Alibaba that it owns. We also know that Alibaba is raising $4 billion in bank loans to buy out the 40 percent of itself owned by Yahoo, which presumably represents perhaps about half of the financing for the deal. So that would mean Alibaba may pay about $8 billion for the 40 percent stake in the end, valuing itself at about $20 billion and the rest of Yahoo at about $11 billion. I know that may look like a lot of math, but at the end of the day we’re looking at 3 big pieces: A new Yahoo worth about $11 billion, an Alibaba worth about $20 billion and a Yahoo Japan which we already know is worth $18 billion. The Alibaba figure is the most interesting to me, as one of the company’s newest investors previously said the price his company paid for a stake in Alibaba this summer valued the group at $32 billion (previous post) I said that figure looked quite inflated and was indicative of China’s looming Internet bubble, which is already showing signs of bursting. Alibaba certainly realizes all this, which is why it is working hard to quickly close this deal and maintain a respectable valuation in the $20 billion range before the bubble really bursts.

Bottom line: The latest figures on a pending deal to buyout Yahoo show Alibaba is worth about $20 billion, a respectable sum but still well below a figure floated in the market earlier this year.

Related postings 相关文章:

Alibaba Scrambles to Prove High Valuation 阿里巴巴高估值或将作茧自缚

Alibaba Tests Waters for Yahoo Buyout – Again 阿里巴巴再试水竞购雅虎股权

Alibaba’s Incredible Shrinking Profit Growth 阿里巴巴盈利呈加速放缓趋势