Tag Archives: 戴尔

Lenovo Takes Backward Step With Compal JV 联想和仁宝合资建厂为倒退举动

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Investors must see something I’m missing in Lenovo’s (HKEx: 992) newly announced $300 million joint venture with Taiwanese contract PC manufacturer Compal (Taipei: 2324). That’s the only reason I can find for an 11 percent jump in Lenovo’s stock on Tuesday after it announced the deal, which will see it pair with one of Taiwan’s top contract PC makers in a new manufacturing tie-up. To me, this deal looks more like a step backward than a positive new development, and goes in the opposite  direction of global industry trends. First let’s review the facts: under their new deal, the companies will invest the $300 million to build a PC manufacturing plant in the Chinese city of Hefei. Presumably the plant will exclusively supply PCs to Lenovo, which recently passed Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) to become the world’s third largest PC seller (previous post) and said it aims to take the number-two spot from Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) by the end of the year. The only problem with this latest joint venture plan is that it completely goes against a much bigger industry trend that has seen most of the world’s major electronics makers, including names like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Dell and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) sell off most of their PC-building assets in the last 10 years and outsource the work to specialist contract manufactures, mostly in Taiwan, like Compal and Hon Hai (Taipei: 2317). The trend occurred to let the big brands focus on marketing and sales, while giving them the flexibility to use one or more of the contract manufacturers depending on their needs in an increasingly competitive global marketplace. For Lenovo to get back into the manufacturing business completely contradicts all these latest industry trends, and I see little or no advantage in this move. My only guess as to why the market got so excited over the news is that perhaps investors believe that with this new project now on its plate, Lenovo will be less likely to make a foolish bid for HP’s PC assets, which would be much more disastrous for Lenovo than this relatively small new investment with Compal.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s new PC manufacturing joint venture with Compal makes little or no sense, and is an unneeded distraction as it aims to take the world’s No. 2 PC spot from Dell.

联想(0992.HK)周二宣布，将与台湾PC代工厂商仁宝(2324.TW)共建规模达3亿美元的合资公司，这项交易中，定有投资者发现了而我却错过的东西。联想股价在周二交易宣布後大涨11%，这是我唯一能想到的原因。合资建厂交易，将令联想和台湾PC代工大厂结成新的生产联盟。但依我看，这项交易更像是倒退了一步，而非向前的新发展，与全球PC行业发展趋势也是背道而驰。首先，我们来回顾一些事实。按照此交易，联想和仁宝将斥资3亿美元在合肥建PC制造厂。联想近期超越台湾宏基(2353.TW)，成为世界第三大PC厂商，并称其目标是到年底取代戴尔(DELL.O)成为世界第二大PC厂商。新合资工厂将只向联想供应PC产品，这项合资计划里面唯一的问题是，这种做法与行业大趋势完全背道而驰。过去10年中，苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)、戴尔和惠普(HPQ.N)等一些世界电子行业巨头纷纷出售各自PC制造资产，并将PC生产工作外包给仁宝和鸿海(2317.TW: 行情)等专业代工商。这种趋势让大公司更多地专注于市场营销，同时在日益激烈的全球竞争中给他们带来灵活性，可以根据需求选择一家或多家代工厂商。联想重返制造业务，完全违背了这些最新行业趋势，我认为此举鲜有或根本没有优势可言。市场为何对此消息如此兴奋，我唯一的猜测的是，投资者可能认为联想有了这一新项目，愚蠢的竞购惠普PC资产的可能性会更小。与这项和仁宝的相对较小规模的投资相比，竞购惠普PC资产会带来更大灾难。

一句话：联想和仁宝合资建厂几乎无意义可言，对超越戴尔成为世界第二大PC厂商的目标来说，也是节外生枝。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Acer Trips, Lenovo Next? 联想应避免重蹈宏基覆辙

◙ HP’s Mobile OS Looks Hot for Lenovo, HTC 联想和HTC似将发动惠普资产竞购战

◙ Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场，研发时尚型PC

Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

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It’s only 3 months since Alibaba split its consumer-oriented Taobao Website into two units, and already it’s starting to hype the more promising of the  two, the B2C-focused Taobao Mall, in what’s no doubt the run-up to an IPO that could come as soon as next year. At the same time, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) is continuing with its battle to win back credibility following a scandal earlier this year, in a clear divergence of strategy for these two sister companies that are both part of Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba Group. Let’s look at Taobao Mall first. The 3-month-old company has held what was probably its first stand-alone press conference, in which it boasted it expects its sales volume to double to 200 billion yuan next year, or about $31 billion, and where it announced a new strategy where it will open its site to other online retailers like Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian in addition to traditional retail names like Dell. (Nasdaq: DELL) (English article) President Daniel Zhang was a big cagier about Taobao Mall’s profits, only saying the company’s profit margin has reached that of other Chinese Internet companies. But clearly the company is feeling pressure to go to market sooner rather than later to return some investment dollars to companies like Japan’s Softbank, who have been waiting 7 years now for a return on their money. I’d look for this IPO to happen as soon as Taobao Mall can show some meaningful profits, probably sometime next year. Meantime, sister company Alibaba.com continues to be on the defensive, following a scandal earlier this year where bogus retailers were cheating buyers on the company’s B2B site. (previous post) Chinese media are reporting Alibaba.com has embarked on a campaign to verify the identities of all of its sellers, clearly in a bid to try and restore confidence to buyers whose numbers have plateaued and even started to fall since the scandal began earlier this year. (Chinese article) Look for this PR campaign to continue and for Alibaba.com to post more tepid results for the next year until it regains the trust of the online B2B buying community.

Bottom line: Taobao Mall’s admission of online retailers to its site is hype for an IPO as early as next year, while sister site Alibaba.com’s will need at least a year to rebuild its credibility following a recent scandal.

距离阿里巴巴将淘宝商城从淘宝网拆分仅仅过去3个月，聚焦于B2C的淘宝商城比淘宝网更有发展潜力，并且至早明年就可以准备上市。与此同时，阿里巴巴B2B(HKEx: 1688)作为淘宝网和淘宝商城的姐妹公司，仍在努力消除年初中国供应商丑闻带来的负面影响。昨 天，三个月大的淘宝商城举行了首场独立身份的新闻发布会，预期2012年交易额目标为2000亿元(合313亿美元)，为今年交易额的2倍。会上还宣布淘 宝商城除了像以往那样和传统品牌如戴尔(Nasdaq: DELL)合作外还会与网店结盟，比如沃尔玛(NYSE: WMT)投资的一号店。淘宝商城总裁张勇对其利润守口如瓶，仅仅说与目前的中国互联网公司持平。但是显然公司面临早日上市以回报投资者的压力，软银已经为 投资回报等待了7年之久。我认为一旦淘宝宣布其利润达到某个关键数值就会上市，时间可能在明年。与此同时，阿里巴巴B2B年初发生的信任危机导致临阵换将，这一事件的影响至今仍未消除。中国媒体报道，阿里巴巴推出一系列新举措以使入住者重拾信任，但上述公关举措是否能如愿让股票表现回到风波之前的水平，仍不明朗。

一句话：淘宝商城对在线零售商的结盟或许是为了可能在明年达成上市而炒作，与此同时阿里巴巴B2B年内仍要致力于消除中国供应商事件的不利影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

◙ Taobao Mall Takes Hit with Drug Sale Ban 中国规范网络售药 或重创淘宝商城

◙ Alibaba Resignations: Is the Magic Gone?

 

HP’s Mobile OS Looks Hot for Lenovo, HTC 联想和HTC似将发动惠普资产竞购战

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New signals coming from Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Taiwan smartphone maker HTC (Taipei: 2498) indicate that both are strongly considering bids in the upcoming auction of Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE: HPQ) PC business, which also happens to include its much smaller smartphone unit. But whereas HTC’s potential bid looks smart, Lenovo’s apparent position needs some serious rethinking. Let’s start with the simpler case of HTC, whose early bet on smartphones has made it an overnight sensation, propelling it past a struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V) earlier this year in terms of market value. (previous post) New comments from HTC’s chairman indicate the company may try to acquire its own smartphone operating system (OS), following Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) recent plan to buy Motorola’s (NYSE: MMI) cellphone business which has upset companies like HTC that use Google’s Android OS. (Chinese article) A very obvious candidate for HTC would be HP’s smartphone OS, which HP acquired last year when it purchased smartphone pioneer Palm. Industry watchers know that Palm’s OS is generally well regarded but has failed to gain much momentum due to lack of a strong promoter. Now let’s look at Lenovo, whose talkative Chairman Liu Chuanzhi has said he aims to become the world’s second largest PC seller by the end of this year, displacing both Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Acer (Taipei: 2353). (Chinese article) This kind of bullish comment, typical of Liu, is just the latest indication that he plans to make a bid for HP’s PC business in the near future. I previously advised that such a bid would be a bad move due to the complexity of such a deal (previous post) and I still think such a bid would be difficult for Lenovo at best, and a disaster at worst. Instead, Lenovo should also focus on HP’s smartphone business, which would be much easier to digest and has big potential to complement its existing cellphone and PC businesses. Some will remember that Lenovo previously launched a bid for Palm last year that ultimately failed, and it should seriously consider making another try as HP prepares to sell its PC and cellphone assets.

Bottom line: A bidding war could be brewing for HP’s smartphone assets following recent comments from HTC, with Lenovo possibly joining the hunt.

联想(0992.HK)和HTC(2498.TW)都发出最新信号，暗示有强烈意愿收购惠普(HPQ.N)将拍卖的个人电脑业务。惠普拟出售的资产碰巧也包括规模较小的智能手机业务。HTC的收购意向似乎是明智的选择，但是联想却需要对自己的立场再认真考虑一番。让我们先看看情况较简单的HTC。此前HTC押注智能手机曾经轰动一时，促使其市值今年稍早超越深陷挣扎的诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)。HTC董事长最近的讲话暗示，该公司可能尝试通过收购拥有自己的智能手机操作系统。此前谷歌(GOOG.O)宣布计划收购摩托罗拉的手机业务，令HTC等使用谷歌安卓系统的公司感到不安。惠普去年收购Palm从而获得自己的智能手机操作系统，这对HTC明显是个不错的选择。行业观察人士都知道，Palm的操作系统获得较高认可，但因缺乏强劲的推动者，没有获得太多成长势头。接下来再看看联想。联想集团董事局主席柳传志曾表示，打算今年年底前成为全球第二大个人电脑销售商，战胜戴尔(DELL.O)和宏基(2353.TW)。此番言论暗示，他计划在近期竞购惠普的个人电脑业务。我此前曾说过，出于对交易复杂性的考虑，我认为这个收购计划对联想不是个好主意。我仍然认为，从好的方面来说这宗交易对联想很困难，最坏结果则是一场灾难。相反，联想应该聚焦惠普的智能手机业务，这更容易消化吸收，也更有可能对其现有的手机和个人电脑业务构成补充。有人会记得联想去年曾发起对Palm的收购，最终以失败告终。在这次惠普出售个人电脑和手机资产的当口，联想对作出再次尝试应该三思而後行。

一句话：HTC高管最近讲话之後，针对惠普手机资产的一场竞购战可能正在酝酿之中，联想可能参加竞购。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

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Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.

Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.

百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台，尽管许多人猜测，易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争，但我们目前知道，至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻，不妨告诉你吧，这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商，近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎，并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作，我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟，谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持，而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会，不再提出批评意见，我想说，百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择，这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明，与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比，中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品，所以，或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名，事实上，我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功，百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作，中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单，证明易平台可靠且人性化，我认为，百度有50%的机率，占据移动平台市场较大份额，这一比例或高达15-20%。

一句话：百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质，是其推广易平台的第一步，百度需要与更多大型手机商合作，才有望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

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Don’t do it! Those are the only words of advice I can offer Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Chairman and founder Liu Chuanzhi, whose latest comments indicate his is weighing a possible bid for the PC assets that global leader Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is putting up for sale. (Chinese article) Liu, who built Lenovo from a local computer builder into the world’s fourth largest PC brand, was understandably reserved in his remarks to reporters on the subject, but his constant use of the phrase “something to consider” indicates to me that his mind is already moving in the direction of making a bid, an easy conclusion to make in light of his fondness for acquisitions that have included his blockbuster purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) PC business, and its more recent takeover of smaller PC operations in Japan and Germany. (previous post) Liu, if he did make a bid, would clearly be looking to vault his company past Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) to become the world’s top PC player, which this deal would clearly do. But the risks are huge, and it’s not at all clear to me that Lenovo could survive a successful bid, especially as it faces huge new competition from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in its home China market that accounts for half of its sales. (previous post) At the top of my list of concerns is the very real possibility that Lenovo would seriously overpay for the HP unit, as it faced strong rival bids from better-funded companies like Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Acer, and perhaps even Dell. But even more important, Lenovo would have an extremely hard time integrating its own business with HP’s, which is already much bigger and far more complex due to the company’s longer history and vast geographic reach. Lenovo might argue its IBM PC purchase has given it valuable experience in such integrations, which is partly true. But let’s also not forget the IBM integration was especially painful for Lenovo, and there’s every reason to believe that HP would be even more painful. If Liu Chuanzhi is smart, he will do his due diligence on HP’s PC business, and quickly decide it’s not worth bidding.

Bottom line: Recent comments from Lenovo’s chairman indicate he may be considering a bid for HP’s PC business — a move that if successful would prove disastrous.

别收购惠普PC业务！这是我给联想(0992.HK)创始人兼董事长柳传志的唯一建议。柳传志的近期评论暗示他正在权衡是否收购惠普(HPQ.N)旗下的PC业务。柳传志把联想从一个本土电脑商打造为全球第四大PC品牌，对记者的这一问题表示了可以理解的保留态度。但我认为，他多次使用“值得考虑”一词表明，他有意参加这次竞购，何况他向来喜欢并购，联想曾收购IBM(IBM.N)的PC业务，近期又收购日本NEC和德国Medion公司的PC业务。如果柳传志竞购惠普PC业务，明显是希望超过戴尔和台湾宏基(2353.TW: 行情)，成为全球第一大PC制造商，该收购案如果成功确实能实现这一点。但联想收购惠普PC业务风险巨大，而且我尚不清楚，联想是否能竞购成功，尤其是联想在中国市场还面临苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)的巨大挑战。我最担忧的是，竞购惠普PC业务时，联想面对三星(005930.KS)、宏基、甚至戴尔等对手的强劲竞标，可能会出价过高。但更重要的是，联想在整合惠普与其自身业务时可能历经艰辛，因为惠普历史悠久、市场更多，所以业务更庞大，也更复杂。联想可能会辩称，收购IBM PC业务为期提供了宝贵经验，一定程度上确实如此。但请不要忘记，联想整合IBM时非常痛苦，我们有理由相信，整合惠普会更痛苦。如果柳传志聪明的话，他应该对惠普PC业务进行独立的尽职调查，并迅速作出惠普PC业务不值得竞购的决定。

一句话：联想董事长柳传志近期评论表示，他可能考虑竞购惠普PC业务，此举若成功，有可能会带来灾难性後果。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑