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Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

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Yesterday I wrote that video- and music-sharing site Xunlei’s New York listing plan was fast shrinking, and today it looks like it’s disappeared completely, the victim of a perfect storm of market- and company-related factors. In a tersely worded statement, Xunlei said simply that it had delayed the offering “due to market conditions”. (company announcement) The offering’s downfall came swiftly, and marks a stunning turnaround for a company that just over a month ago said that it hoped to raise up to $200 million. (previous post) It already boasted Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) as previous backers, and went on to add News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) media mogul Rupert Murdoch to the list, though that backing may have lost some importance in light of the current scandal surrounding Murdoch’s newspapers in the UK. But then shaky accounting practices at Chinese companies became a major concern in the market over the last month, and Xunlei’s own confession that weak accounting practices could constitute an investor risk did little to help its case. Add to that a lawsuit by seven major global record labels over music piracy (previous post), and the offering quickly shrank by more than half, from the previous $200 million to about $75, by the time  Xunlei finally decided to scrap the deal, at least for now. The company is likely to relaunch this offering when market sentiment improves, and would be well advised to clean up its accounting books and the content traded on its site before it makes such an attempt. Of course, those kind of clean-ups could be costly — wiping out substantial amounts of revenue and significantly shrinking the company’s prospects. Still, I would expect to see Xunlei return to market in the next 2-3 months, this time in a much lower-key offering and probably seeking a much lower valuation than it previously hoped for.

Bottom line: Xunlei’s withdrawal of it IPO reflects both company and market issues, but it is likely to make a second, more low-key, lower-valued bid in the next 2-3 months.

昨天，我写了一篇关於视频和音乐分享网站迅雷纽约上市计划迅速缩水的文章，而今天，迅雷看似将彻底无限期推迟IPO，成为市场和公司因素“完美风暴”的受害者。迅雷在一份简要声明中称，鉴於目前的市场情况，该公司决定推迟上市时间。迅雷IPO急转直下，而一个月前该公司还表示，希望融资规模能达到2亿美元。迅雷曾宣称，其支持者包括百度<BIDU.O>、谷歌<GOOG. O>及新闻集团<NWSA.O>媒体大亨默多克，鉴於默多克因窃听丑闻缠身，这种支持似乎已不那麽重要了。过去一个月来，中国赴美上市企业会计丑闻成为市场的主要关注点，而迅雷承认，会计问题或构成投资者风险对其亦无益。此外，全球七大唱片公司起诉迅雷侵权。该公司IPO规模迅速缩水逾一半，从先前的2亿美元降至迅雷最终决定暂停IPO计划时的7,500万美元左右。  如果市况转好，迅雷或将重启IPO，并可能会被建议提前清理会计账本和网站内容。当然，这种清理行动成本可能很高，会使其营收大幅减少，并导致公司前景大打折扣。不过，我预计迅雷未来两三个月将重归IPO轨道，届时迅雷料将更为低调上市，并可能大幅下调融资规模预期。

一句话：迅雷暂停IPO计划是出於公司和市场原因，但未来两三个月，该公司很可能会再次筹备上市，但将更低调，融资规模更小。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei’s Incredible Shrinking IPO 迅雷IPO规模缩水 纽约首秀或破发

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

Xunlei’s Incredible Shrinking IPO 迅雷IPO规模缩水 纽约首秀或破发

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What once looked like one of the year’s hottest China IPOs, that of video and music sharing site Xunlei, is rapidly looking like one of the biggest failures, the victim to negative publicity about both the company itself and questionable accounting practices of Chinese firms in general. Chinese media are reporting that Xunlei has lowered the price range for its offering, originally set for Wednesday in the US but now moved to Thursday, to $12-$14 per share from a previous $14-$16 due to weak demand. (Chinese article) At that new range, it would raise around $78 million, far less than the $100-plus million it was originally targeting. So what happened on the road to market to derail such a once-promising company, whose backers include local and global search leaders Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)? At the company level, Chinese media reports that seven major record labels, including Sony Music (Tokyo: 6758) and Warner Music (NYSE: WMG) are suing Xunlei for 20.5 million yuan surely isn’t good. (Chinese article) That figure translates to a relatively small $3 million. but the bigger picture is that China is pushing its major Web sites to rid themselves of pirated music and video, as evidenced by big content deals between the major global media companies and leading online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Baidu over the last two weeks. Xunlei has much less resources than these two sector leaders, and investors are probably scared that a clean-up of pirated material from the site could lead to a big drop in traffic. From a broader perspective, the IPO is coming to market as sentiment toward Chinese companies has chilled in recent weeks over a recent series of accounting scandals that have undermined investor confidence. With all that going against it, Xunlei is facing strong headwinds as it prepares to join the ranks of US-listed China firms.

Bottom line: Xunlei’s upcoming IPO will struggle out of the gate, and is likely to fall in its New York trading debut amid weak sentiment and a major lawsuit against it.

视频和音乐分享网站迅雷IPO原本是中国今年最热门的IPO之一，受该公司负面报导和中国赴美企业会计丑闻影响，迅雷IPO看似将迅速成为最大败笔之一。中国媒体报导称，由於认购情况不佳，迅雷已将发行价区间从之前的14-16美元下调至12-14美元，并将IPO时间从周三推迟至周四。按照新的发行价区间计算，其融资额将降至7,800万美元左右，远远低於原先上亿美元的目标。迅雷上市进程中到底发生了什麽，致使这样一个曾前途无量、获百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG. O>支持的公司陷入当前困境？从公司层面上来看，中国媒体报导称，索尼音乐<6758.T>和华纳音乐<WMG.N>等七大唱片公司起诉迅雷侵权，索赔2,050万元，此事自然对迅雷影响不好。索赔金额换算一下不过300万美元，但该事件的大背景是，中国正敦促国内各大网站清除盗版音乐和视频，优酷<YOKU.N>和百度在过去两周分别与大型全球媒体公司签署内容协议即是例证。迅雷的资源远远少於优酷和百度，投资者或担忧，清除盗版内容，或导致其访问量大幅下降。从更广泛的角度来看，中国赴美企业近期系列会计丑闻重挫投资者信心，迅雷IPO适逢市况不佳之时。综上所有不利因素，迅雷赴美上市将面临强劲阻力。

一句话：迅雷赴美IPO路途多舛，由於市况不佳，并遭大唱片公司侵权起诉，迅雷纽约首秀或将破发。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China, US Move to Ease Confidence Crisis 中美合作解决在美上市中国企业的信任危机

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

Tudou Nears IPO Despite Strong Headwind 土豆网逆流而动决意上市

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Online video sharing site Tudou seems determined to make its long-delayed IPO regardless of negative market sentiment, filing new documents for its Nasdaq offering that show it is facing a growing pile of copyright infringement lawsuits. I suspect that Tudou founder and CEO Gary Wang is rushing to market despite the poor timing as he attempts to wrap up a messy divorce that has already delayed the IPO of his money-losing company by more than half a year. The amended IPO documents contain details of Wang’s divorce settlement (English article), and also appear to contain information about huge pile of copyright infringement lawsuits hiis company is facing — no doubt from plaintiffs seeking to grab some of the money from the upcoming offering. According to one Chinese media report citing a Tudou disclosure, the company has faced 587 lawsuits since its founding, including 192 that have yet to be resolved (Chinese article) Luckily for Tudou, China’s weak copyright laws don’t penalize infringers too much, but the fact that Tudou has lost the vast majority of these lawsuits means it may eventually have to stop allowing pirated material onto its site that undoubtedly accounts for much of its traffic. Money-losing rival Youku (NYSE: YOKU) is facing a similar issues, and recently signed a landmark deal to offer legitimate Warner Bros (NYSE: TWX) movies and TV shows to its premium customers as it moves to wean itself from pirated material. (previous post) Tudou appears to be further behind in the drive to acquire legitimate material and eliminate pirated content, which will no doubt hurt its growth prospects in the near term. That issue, combined with recent weak sentiment toward US-listed China stocks due to credibility issues, are likely to make Tudou’s offering a dud when it finally comes in the weeks ahead.

Bottom line: Tudou’s upcoming IPO looks set to be a flop, coming into a weak market as the money-losing company grapples with piracy issues.

不顾低迷的市场人气，中国在线视频分享网站——土豆网似乎决意要将其拖延已久的首次公开募股（IPO）进行到底。土豆网已提交新文件，为在美国纳斯达克市场上市作准备，尽管文件显示该网站正面临越来越多的版权官司。我猜想，土豆网创始人兼CEO王微正急於让公司上市，尽管此时并不是一个好时机。王微正试图了结自己的离婚案，因此事已让这家亏损企业的上市时间推迟了半年多。修改後的IPO申请文件涵盖了王微的离婚财产处理细节，也似乎涉及到土豆网面临的大量版权官司。中国媒体援引土豆网披露的信息说，自公司创建以来，土豆网遭遇了587例诉讼案，其中192起仍悬而未决。幸运的是，中国宽松的版权法律不会严惩违规者，但土豆网在多数诉讼案中败北的事实意味着，它或许最终要禁止盗版内容在其网站中出现。土豆网的竞争对手——优酷网<YOKU.N>也面临着类似问题。优酷网刚刚签署了一份具有里程碑意义的协议，以向其优质客户提供华纳兄弟<TWX.N> 的电影和电视节目，作为其逐渐剥离盗版内容的一个举措。在获取正版视频、消除盗版内容方面，土豆网似乎落後了一步，这无疑会在短期内损害其业绩增长前景。该问题以及近期在美上市中国企业信誉问题引发的薄弱人气，均可能使土豆网上市前景一片悲观。

一句话：土豆网的上市前景一片悲观，因这家亏损企业既要处理盗版问题，又要在一个糟糕的时机上市。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

◙ Tudou: Back on the IPO Trail 土豆：重回IPO轨道

◙ Youku’s Luxurious Dream 优酷网的奢侈品梦想

 

Tudou: Back on the IPO Trail 土豆：重回IPO轨道

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Video sharing site Xunlei may be delaying its upcoming IPO due to the China sell-off on Wall Street  (previous post), but the bloodbath doesn’t seem to be deterring rival site Tudou. Chinese media are reporting that Tudou, whose name means potato in Chinese, has revived stalled plans for a New York IPO, after suspending those plans last fall while founder Gary Wang worked through a messy divorce. (English article; Chinese article)  The reports say Tudou, which has yet to turn a profit, has filed its initial documents with the US securities regulator, and that it aims to list by the end of this month. Many will recall that Tudou was in a race with another rival, Youku (NYSE: YOKU), last fall to become China’s first publicly listed video sharing site — a race that Tudou ultimately lost when Wang’s divorce proceedings got in the way. Later reports emerged that Wang might be looking to sell Tudou, though the company insisted all along it was still aiming for an IPO. (previous post) This current plan doesn’t really surprise me, though I  question how smart it is. Wang, like many other Chinese entrepreneurs, clearly wants to stay at the head of his company, hence his preference for an IPO versus a sale of Tudou to a rival. Furthermore, he’s probably so relieved that his divorce is finally resolved that he’s blind to the fact that his company — already less attractive due to its money-losing status — will IPO into a market where sentiment toward new China listings has grown ice cold over the last 2 months. That shift has already prompted rival Xunlei, which has a much stronger financial background, to delay its IPO. If it moves forward with its plan to list in the next couple of weeks, which seems likely, look for Tudou shares to price weakly, and to stumble out of the gate with a weak to outright disastrous trading debut.

Bottom line: Tudou’s rush to IPO into one of the weakest markets in more than a year will end with a weak pricing and potentially disastrous trading debut.

近来中国概念股在华尔街遭遇滑铁卢，中国视频分享网站迅雷可能会推迟IPO进程，但竞争对手土豆网似乎不为所动。据中国媒体报导，土豆网创始人王微与前妻已就离婚财产纠纷达成和解，网站之前暂停的IPO计划重回正轨。报导称土豆网已向美国证券交易委员会提交监管文件，计划最迟本月底前上市。很多人应该都记得土豆去年秋天与另外一家竞争对手优酷网<YOKU.N>展开上市赛跑，当时土豆因王微离婚纠纷而在这一竞赛中最终败北，优酷最终成功上市，成为中国首家上市的视频分享网站。稍後曾有报导称王微有意出售土豆，不过公司一直坚称目标仍为IPO。我虽怀疑土豆当前计划是否明智，但对此举本身我并不感意外。王微像很多中国企业家一样，明显希望继续掌舵，所以他会倾向於IPO，而不是把土豆出售给竞争对手。而且，离婚纠纷终於尘埃落定，王微大大松了一口气，以至于根本没有注意过去两个月来华尔街对中国概念股的态度跌至冰冷。华尔街的态度转变已经让迅雷推迟了IPO计划。如果未来几周土豆继续推进IPO，土豆股价定价可能非常弱，上市首日就有可能惨淡破发。

一句话：在目前华尔街冷眼对待中国概念股的情况下，土豆匆忙赴美IPO，最终定价可能很低，而且上市首秀可能灾难收场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

◙ Youku Ambushes Market with Massive Follow-on, Investors Bite 优酷利用投资者心理大捞一笔

◙ Tudou Smells Sweet as Video Sharing Purchase　　土豆网秀色可餐