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Lenovo Results: Second Time the Charm? 联想在日德的收购会重蹈覆辙？

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Top Chinese PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) has just announced some impressive results, saying recent acquisitions in Germany and Japan helped to lift its profit 60 percent in its latest fiscal quarter, as revenue rose an equally strong 54 percent. (Earnings announcement) But as a long-time China watcher, my first reaction is: I’ve seen this before, as the company’s results also got a quick boost back in 2006 after its ground-breaking purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) PC assets, which instantly gave its revenue a major boost with a large new global presence. But history watchers will also remember that honeymoon period was relatively short lived, and Lenovo later suffered big losses and launched a major reorganization after many of IBM’s former clients defected and it couldn’t efficiently run IBM’s overseas operations. So the question now becomes, are we going to see an encore performance of the IBM deal, which would see Lenovo’s fortunes rapidly fall and end with another reorganization; or will it learn from its previous IBM experience and this time do better, perhaps even achieving its goal of overtaking Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) to become the world’s largest PC company? Before I gave my answer, let’s take a quick look at the big picture, starting with the latest acquisitions that saw Lenovo purchase German PC maker Medion and take over the PC operations of Japan’s NEC (Tokyo: 6701) last year. The US may have been a difficult labor market for Lenovo, but the challenges there will seem small compared to what it will face in Japan and Germany, the former due to its tradition of companies providing lifetime employment to workers and the latter due to its strong labor unions. Those kinds of labor issues were largely behind the failure of TCL’s (HKEx: 1070) purchase of a French TV maker and the purchase of Siemens’ (Frankfurt; SIEGn) cellphone assets by Taiwan’s BenQ nearly a decade ago. Lenovo was a little smarter this time in Japan, taking over NEC’s PC operations through a joint venture rather than an outright purchase, meaning NEC will remain as a partner to help to run the operation. But TCL also tried the joint venture approach with France’s Thomson, and clearly that didn’t work. In terms of customer defections, I would also expect those to start happening soon. In this case, the defections could be even worse, since Japanese and German consumers and businesses are especially quality conscious, and are unlikely to like the idea that they are buying computers from a Chinese company instead of a German or Japanese one. All that said, look for both of these acquisitions to run into problems, with labor issues likely to flare up in the next year and customer defections to accelerate as corporate purchasing contracts expire. The situation could become worse as many of Lenovo’s recent forays into new product areas are also likely to run into trouble, meaning the company could quickly see its new zooming top and bottom lines start to stumble, setting the stage for yet another reorganization in the next 2-3 years.

Bottom line: Lenovo could soon see history repeat, with strong results after 2 recent acquisitions setting the stage for integration difficulties and an eventual reorganization.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo’s TV Gamble: Failure Ahead? 联想电视赌注：未来会失败吗？

◙ TCL Cellphones: History Repeats Itself TCL手机业务历史重演

◙ Lenovo Completes Leadership Change, Yang Uninspired 联想完成高层调整，杨元庆难鼓舞人心

Lenovo’s TV Gamble: Failure Ahead? 联想电视赌注：未来会失败吗？

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I should credit leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) for being ahead of the curve by releasing its new smart TV in China last week, getting a slight lead on a widely anticipated launch for by Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) for a similar new product group that could revolutionize the way people watch TV. (English article) Reviews are still few for Lenovo’s new product, a 55-inch TV called the K91; but based on its past track record as a company with limited capability in new product design, I would offer only a very small chance for this product to succeed, potentially costing Lenovo hundreds of millions of dollars in development and marketing costs. The reason for my pessimism is simple: Lenovo, a specialist in PCs for developing markets, has never shown any ability to be a leader in new product design, especially in areas where it has little or no experience. Its previous forays into cellphones, gaming consoles and tablet PCs have all been mostly flops, failing to generate any buzz or excitement after having to compete with better designed products from the likes of more innovative firms like Apple, Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Asustek (Taipei: 2357) and HTC (HKEx: 2498). Given that poor track record, I have little reason to believe this latest initiative will succeed either, especially since such smart TVs are a completely new category and thus there are few products out there to use as a guidebook into what works and what doesn’t for this area. I do at least have to give Lenovo credit for trying hard by buying state-of-the art technology for its first smart TV, with components coming from such top-end suppliers as chip designer Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), audio technology firm DTS (Nasdaq: DTSI) and its operating system based on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android platform. The company may also be making a smart choice by launching the product in its home China market, where it is the dominant PC brand and which accounts for around half of its sales. But its early launch even in China could mean very little if its product doesn’t contain content and functionality that ordinary consumers want. What’s more, competing products from Samsung and especially Apple are likely to hit the market in a matter of months, meaning Lenovo won’t have much of a head-start over these rivals whose products will no doubt contain more features and generate more buzz than the Lenovo TVs. Lenovo hasn’t said very much about response for the product in the week since its launch, saying only that performance has exceeded its expectations. (Chinese article) But considering its past track record, look for the K91 to post disappointing sales over the longer term, perhaps in the tens of thousands this year, and for this broader smart TV initiative to end up as a failure for Lenovo like many of its other new product initiatives.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s new smart TV initiative is likely to fail despite an early head-start over rivals in China, with products from foreign rivals likely to eventually dominate the market.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ NEC China Cellphones: New Lenovo Tie-Up? NEC计划重回中国手机市场 或与联想联姻

◙ Lenovo Completes Leadership Change, Yang Uninspired 联想完成高层调整，杨元庆难鼓舞人心

◙ Apple Feasts on China, Baidu Burps 苹果在华享受盛宴，百度盛宴停顿

Bottom line:

Lenovo Sister Firm Looks to Japan, Taobao Quits “围城”日本：弘毅想冲进去 淘宝想撤出来

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Japan’s foreign minister was in China yesterday on an official visit, so I thought I’d start the week with 2 items on Chinese companies in the notoriously difficult Japanese market, including an interesting move into the chip sector by a sister company of PC giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and a hasty retreat by e-commerce giant Alibaba. Let’s start with the more intriguing of the items, which is seeing Hony Capital, the high-profile technology investment arm of Lenovo parent Legend Group, pairing with US private equity giant TPG Capital to make a planned bid for bankrupt memory chipmaker Elpida (Tokyo: 6665), according to a Japanese media report. (English article) If they made a bid, the pair would join 2 other suitors, Korea’s Hynix Semiconductor (Seoul: 000660) and US-based Micron (NYSE: MU) in pursuing the Japanese company that controls 12 percent of the global DRAM market. Frankly speaking, Hynix and Micron look like much better suitors for Elpida, as both are competitors that could consolidate the Japanese company into their own operations for an industry that has been in desperate need of consolidation for the last 5 or 6 years. But the Hony-TPG pairing does include one interesting element, namely the Lenovo connection. Lenovo itself has been trying to break into Japan for years now, following its 2005 purchase of IBM’s PC assets that included sales and distribution networks in Japan. More recently Lenovo has taken over the PC assets of NEC (Tokyo: 6701), and has discussed setting up a manufacturing base in Japan. (previous post) A successful bid for Elpida could theoretically provide Lenovo with a strong DRAM supply for its Japan-based business. Still, I would be wary of such a purchase since Lenovo has little or no experience in running a DRAM operation, and it’s unclear what kind of savings it could achieve by combining its Japanese PC business with Elpida’s money-losing memory business. Moving on, the other Japanese news bit has seen Alibaba’s Taobao service officially shutter its Japanese shopping channel that was operating on a platform run by Yahoo Japan (Tokyo: 4689). (Chinese article) Alibaba made a relatively low-key move into Japan several years ago, seeking to take advantage of ties to one of its earliest investors, Japan’s Softbank (Japan: 9984), which is also the main investor in Yahoo Japan along with Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) itself. Clearly the market hasn’t proven as easy to penetrate as Alibaba had hoped, and the media report even says that sales on the Taobao Japan channel were below the company’s targets. This withdrawal doesn’t surprise me at all, as Chinese firms of all types have had a difficult time in the Japanese market, which has become famous for its impenetrability by foreign firms. The other big Chinese web firm trying to crack the market is search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which has spent millions of dollars over the last 3 years on a Japanese search portal with little results to show for that investment. This Taobao withdrawal from the market was completely predictable, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a similar retreat by Baidu within the next 12 months.

Bottom line: A bid by a Lenovo sister company for bankrupt Japanese chipmaker Elpida is likely to fail, while Baidu is likely to follow a recent Alibaba retreat from Japan in the next 12 months.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Japan Production 联想向日本转移制造业务为明智公关手段

◙ NEC China Cellphones: New Lenovo Tie-Up? NEC计划重回中国手机市场 或与联想联姻

◙ Baidu Dreams of Brazil 百度试水巴西

Lenovo Results: Honeymoon Nearing an End? 联想并购後的蜜月期何时结束？

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Lenovo (HKEx: 992), arguably China’s best known consumer brand, has just released its latest quarterly results that show strong growth but lack any real excitement, as new acquisitions contribute to its top line for the first time. (company announcement) My real concern in all this is that the company could well be in a honeymoon period at this point, enjoying the immediate gains of higher revenue and profits from 2 big acquisitions last year, even as those same 2 acquisitions in the difficult Japanese and German markets are sure to start causing problems soon. On the surface at least, the results look quite solid. Revenue for the latest fiscal quarter rose 44 percent to $8.37 billion, while profit rose an even stronger 54 percent to $153 million, as the company gained sales from its new joint venture with Japan’s NEC (Tokyo: 6701) and its acquisition of Germany’s Medion. Investors didn’t seem too excited by the results, bidding up Lenovo shares slightly in morning trade in Hong Kong after the figures came out. The lack of excitement owes to the fact that Lenovo hasn’t been particularly aggressive in smartphones or tablet PCs, 2 of the big growth areas it will need to develop if it wants to remain a relevant PC leader for the years ahead. It did take an interesting move on that front last month, when it announced it would be one of the first backers for a new smartphone chip being developed by Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), the global giant better known for its PC-based chips. (previous post) Still, new models using the chip are probably still at least several months away, and will undoubtedly have many minor problems before they become a major contributor, if ever. Meantime, Lenovo has quite a few potential clouds hanging over its head that could turn into real trouble for the company. One of the latest of those emerged over the past week, when rival Acer (Taipei: 2353) filed a suit against one of its former top executives, Gianfranco Lanci, who recently moved to Lenovo to head its European operations. (Chinese article) But more worrisome in my view are the potential for problems with both the NEC and Medion acquisitions. Lenovo said last year it was considering moving some production to Japan, in a move clearly aimed at placating NEC’s Japanese customers worried about receiving inferior product after the deal. Meantime, the company will also probably be forced to maintain some production in German after buying Medion. Both  of these labor markets are famously difficult even for the most experienced companies, and Lenovo could soon discover it has taken on a bigger challenge in both than it originally thought. On the whole, I would say to look for 1 and perhaps even 2 more quarters of positive results before the new reality starts to take effect and Lenovo enters its next period  of crisis, probably by the end of the year.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s latest results show the company is still enjoying a honeymoon period from 2 recent acquisitions, but those same purchases will lead to new troubles by the end of this year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo: Finally a Risk Taker In Intel Tie-Up 联想联手英特尔,终於肯冒险

◙ Lenovo Starts Year With New Europe Chief, TV Tie-Up 联想新年新气象：聘用新高管并推互联网电视

◙ Lenovo Considers Japan Production 联想向日本转移制造业务为明智公关手段

Lenovo Considers Japan Production 联想向日本转移制造业务为明智公关手段

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There’s  interesting news that Lenovo (HKEx: 992) the world’s second largest PC maker, may move some of its production to Japan — a step that at first glance seems to totally contradict global trends that have seen PC makers relocate nearly all their manufacturing to developing markets like China and Vietnam in recent years. (Chinese article) But a closer inspection could show the idea might actually make sense, providing a powerful marketing tool following Lenovo’s takeover of NEC’s (Tokyo: 6701) notebook PC business earlier this year through a joint venture. (previous post) I previously predicted that current customers for NEC’s notebook PCs, many of those based in its home Japan market, would start to abandon the NEC brand in droves following the takeover, as many would fear a drop in quality with Lenovo’s likely plan to move NEC’s manufacturing from the expensive Japan market to developing countries to save money. This latest development seems specifically aimed at winning PR points for Lenovo by saying it won’t eliminate jobs from Japan, and also reassuring worried Japanese consumers and corporate clients that quality won’t suffer after the takeover. The strategy does seem to make sense, especially if Lenovo can manage to close at least some of NEC’s Japan PC operations to save a little money and then leave a small amount of manufacturing in the country as a goodwill gesture. My main concern would be that Lenovo, worried that Japanese media and consumers will be looking for the first signs of layoffs, may try to leave NEC’s Japanese PC operations completely intact, which would greatly hamper its ability to profitably run the operation. If it’s smart, it will perhaps maintain the entire NEC Japanese operation for the next 6-12 months, and then quietly move some of it off-shore to cheaper markets while helping employees who are no longer needed to find other jobs in a low-profile manner. Such a plan could be tricky to execute, but not impossible, as the media typically have a short attention span and are likely to forget the matter and move on to other things in the next year or so.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s plan to potentially maintain Japanese manufacturing operations it inherited from NEC looks like a smart PR move, but it will need to be careful to avoid longer-term high costs.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Liu Steps Down at Lenovo — Again 柳传志再度卸任联想董事会主席

◙ Lenovo Takes Backward Step With Compal JV 联想和仁宝合资建厂为倒退举动

Acer Trips, Lenovo Next? 联想应避免重蹈宏基覆辙

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The folks at Lenovo (HKEx: 992) are surely celebrating, after the latest numbers showed it zoomed past sputtering Taiwanese PC maker Acer (Taipei: 2353) to take the spot as the world’s third largest PC seller in the second quarter. (Chinese article) But before they celebrate too much, I would advise Lenovo’s leaders to take a good look at what happened to Acer to avoid a similar fate of the former high-flyer. First let’s look at the numbers. According to iSuppli, Lenovo’s PC shipments soared 23 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, giving it 12 percent of the world’s PC market. That was more than enough to lift it past Acer, whose shipments plummeted 20 percent to give it just over 10 percent of the global PC market. Acer’s story is relatively well known, as its low-price strategy to grab share in tough Western markets from better run rivals Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ) ultimately backfired and drove the company’s bottom line into the red. Lenovo has seen its sales soar in large part due to its earlier decision to focus on emerging markets, drawing on expertise gained in its home in China where it controls more than a quarter of the market. But it has shown a worrisome tendency recently to buy dying Western computer makers, picking up Germany’s Medion (previous post) and taking over NEC’s (Tokyo: 6701) PC business in Japan (previous post), much the way Acer took over the dying Gateway brand in the US in 2007. Recent signals from Lenovo’s acquisition-happy Chairman Liu Chuanzhi indicated he was strongly considering a bid for HP’s PC business, which HP is trying to sel. But Liu later backed off and said Lenovo wouldn’t enter the race. If true, that would be a smart move for Lenovo, which should focus on integrating its Japanese and German acquisitions and building its emerging markets business to avoid following in Acer’s footsteps.

Bottom line: Lenovo needs to study the case of Acer and avoid overly aggressive ambitions in Western markets to avoid repeating Acer’s recent rapid fall from grace.

联想(0992.HK)员工一定在庆祝，公司第二季度超过宏基(2353.TW)成为全球第三大个人电脑（PC）厂商。但他们最好不要高兴过头，我建议，联想领导层应仔细审视宏基的经历，避免遭遇相同的命运。首先，来看看最新数据。市场研究公司iSuppli称，联想第二季度PC发货量同比增长23%，其全球市场份额增至12%。这使联想远远超过宏基，後者第二季度PC发货量下滑20%，全球市场份额仅略高于10%。宏基的故事相对广为人知。凭借低价策略，宏基从戴尔(DELL.O)和惠普(HPQ.N)手中抢得西方市场份额，但最终适得其反，导致宏基出现亏损。联想PC销量大涨，主要归因于早先侧重新兴市场的决策，并充分利用在国内积累的专业经验。联想占据国内PC市场逾四分之一份额。但联想收购德国Medion和日本NEC(6701.T)PC业务，这一趋势令人担忧，做法很像宏基2007年在美国收购濒临破产的Gateway。联想董事长柳传志稍早的讲话表明，有意竞购惠普打算出售的PC业务，但近期却打退堂鼓，称联想不会参与竞购。如果情况属实，可谓明智之举。联想应致力于整合上述两起并购，发展新兴市场业务，避免重蹈宏基的覆辙。

一句话：联想应以宏基为鉴，避免在西方市场过度扩张，再现宏基近期迅速下滑一幕。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场，研发时尚型PC

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场，研发时尚型PC

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There’s a few interesting news bits out there on Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which sum up its interesting search for direction in a brave new world where its biggest rival, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is leaving the PC business altogether and its new top rival now appears to be Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). In the first news bit, Chinese media are quoting a Lenovo executive saying his company is on track to become Russia’s largest PC seller in the next two years. (English article) The second bit has Lenovo trying to spiff up its image by announcing a chic new line of ultra-portable laptops, clearly more aimed at developed markets (company announcement), while the third bit cites unnamed sources saying Lenovo’s new game console, the eeDoo, won’t debut on schedule this month for unspecified reasons. (English article) The Russian campaign is clearly a smart and necessary move, as that market, one of the world’s five BRICS, is the kind of place where Lenovo can best leverage its expertise as a emerging specialist and lay the foundation for solid future growth. The new line of ultra-light computers, aimed more at developed markets, is a nod to the future, taking Lenovo head-to-head with Apple, which currently dominates that space, both in terms of chic and ultra-portability. If Lenovo wants to compete in developed markets it will need to make more moves like this, though I personally think this particular campaign will flop. After all, no one associates Lenovo with chic, at least not yet, and it will take more than a few new PC models to change that image. As to the game console business, my response is a resounding “Who cares?” Lenovo clearly wants to diversify its products to compete in as many computing areas as possible,  but the console business is a dying animal that Lenovo should ignore and focus on products with a brighter future.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s campaign to win Russia is a bold and necessary step to confirm its place as the world’s top emerging markets PC maker, but its bid to become a fashion leader looks misguided.

最近有几则关于联想公司的消息耐人寻味，联想看似正在探索公司发展的新方向。随着惠普剥离个人电脑业务，联想新的最大竞争对手似乎换成了苹果。第一则消息称，中国媒体援引联想高管的报导称，联想将努力在两年後成为俄罗斯最大的个人电脑卖家。第二则消息称，联想宣布一系列超级轻薄的笔记本电脑，这明显是瞄准了发达国家市场；联想尝试以此转变公司形象。第三则消息援引未具名的消息人士称，联想的新游戏机eeDoo本月将不会如期上市，但没有透露具体原因。进军俄罗斯显然是明智之举，也很有必要。在俄罗斯市场，联想能够最大限度地发挥自身的专家优势，并为将来的稳步成长打下基础。以发达国家市场为主打的最新系列超轻薄电脑是对未来的试探，将联想推向与苹果正面竞争的舞台，当前，苹果主导这个市场。如果联想希望在发达国家市场竞争，将需要在这方面多做努力，不过我个人认为本次活动将落败。毕竟还没有人，至少现在还没有人将联想和时尚型产品联系到一起。联想需要推出多款新机型来改变这一形象。至于游戏机业务，我的感觉是“谁去关心它？”，联想显然是希望以多元化产品在尽可能多的科技领域投入市场竞争，但是游戏机业务是个夕阳产业，联想应该对其敬而远之，聚焦于具有更光明未来的产品。

一句话：联想希望赢得俄罗斯市场的举动很大胆、也很有必要，是证明其全球最大新兴市场个人电脑生产商地位的重要一步，但公司希望成为流行科技产品行业领导者的努力看似有些误入歧途。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

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Don’t do it! Those are the only words of advice I can offer Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Chairman and founder Liu Chuanzhi, whose latest comments indicate his is weighing a possible bid for the PC assets that global leader Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is putting up for sale. (Chinese article) Liu, who built Lenovo from a local computer builder into the world’s fourth largest PC brand, was understandably reserved in his remarks to reporters on the subject, but his constant use of the phrase “something to consider” indicates to me that his mind is already moving in the direction of making a bid, an easy conclusion to make in light of his fondness for acquisitions that have included his blockbuster purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) PC business, and its more recent takeover of smaller PC operations in Japan and Germany. (previous post) Liu, if he did make a bid, would clearly be looking to vault his company past Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) to become the world’s top PC player, which this deal would clearly do. But the risks are huge, and it’s not at all clear to me that Lenovo could survive a successful bid, especially as it faces huge new competition from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in its home China market that accounts for half of its sales. (previous post) At the top of my list of concerns is the very real possibility that Lenovo would seriously overpay for the HP unit, as it faced strong rival bids from better-funded companies like Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Acer, and perhaps even Dell. But even more important, Lenovo would have an extremely hard time integrating its own business with HP’s, which is already much bigger and far more complex due to the company’s longer history and vast geographic reach. Lenovo might argue its IBM PC purchase has given it valuable experience in such integrations, which is partly true. But let’s also not forget the IBM integration was especially painful for Lenovo, and there’s every reason to believe that HP would be even more painful. If Liu Chuanzhi is smart, he will do his due diligence on HP’s PC business, and quickly decide it’s not worth bidding.

Bottom line: Recent comments from Lenovo’s chairman indicate he may be considering a bid for HP’s PC business — a move that if successful would prove disastrous.

别收购惠普PC业务！这是我给联想(0992.HK)创始人兼董事长柳传志的唯一建议。柳传志的近期评论暗示他正在权衡是否收购惠普(HPQ.N)旗下的PC业务。柳传志把联想从一个本土电脑商打造为全球第四大PC品牌，对记者的这一问题表示了可以理解的保留态度。但我认为，他多次使用“值得考虑”一词表明，他有意参加这次竞购，何况他向来喜欢并购，联想曾收购IBM(IBM.N)的PC业务，近期又收购日本NEC和德国Medion公司的PC业务。如果柳传志竞购惠普PC业务，明显是希望超过戴尔和台湾宏基(2353.TW: 行情)，成为全球第一大PC制造商，该收购案如果成功确实能实现这一点。但联想收购惠普PC业务风险巨大，而且我尚不清楚，联想是否能竞购成功，尤其是联想在中国市场还面临苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)的巨大挑战。我最担忧的是，竞购惠普PC业务时，联想面对三星(005930.KS)、宏基、甚至戴尔等对手的强劲竞标，可能会出价过高。但更重要的是，联想在整合惠普与其自身业务时可能历经艰辛，因为惠普历史悠久、市场更多，所以业务更庞大，也更复杂。联想可能会辩称，收购IBM PC业务为期提供了宝贵经验，一定程度上确实如此。但请不要忘记，联想整合IBM时非常痛苦，我们有理由相信，整合惠普会更痛苦。如果柳传志聪明的话，他应该对惠普PC业务进行独立的尽职调查，并迅速作出惠普PC业务不值得竞购的决定。

一句话：联想董事长柳传志近期评论表示，他可能考虑竞购惠普PC业务，此举若成功，有可能会带来灾难性後果。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

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Leading Chinese PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) has finally discovered a winning formula, beating market expectations with a profit that doubled in its latest fiscal quarter on the back of strong sales in its core emerging markets business. (company announcement) Unfortunately for Lenovo, however, it has discovered the formula just a little too late, underscoring its record for late arrivals to new product areas and boding poorly for its future. The company boasted that six years after its landmark purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) struggling PC business, it has finally managed to turn that unit around and posted a $77 million profit for its developed markets business in the quarter ended June 30. But it was less boastful about the fact that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), in a much shorter period, has come from nowhere to overtake it in terms of revenue in its home China market, which accounts for about half of Lenovo’s sales. (previous post) The company was also more muted on its recently launched smartphone and tablet PC offerings, the LePhone and LePad, which are clearly two important products of the future as people move away from traditional laptops and desktop models towards lighter, more mobile computing. According to calculations in one Chinese meida report, the company has sold just over 700,000 LePhones in the last 3 quarters in China (Chinese article), and the company itself admitted to an anemic 80,000 LePads sold in the latest quarter. (English article) That compares with Apple’s estimated 1 million iPads sold in China in the latest quarter alone, although obviously Apple has a head start there. Still, considering Lenovo’s weak performance for these key new products in its own home market, where it has numerous advantages over Apple, its latest seemingly strong results point to strong headwinds in the future, both at home and abroad.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s strong profit in its latest quarterly results masks serious weakness in the key future growth areas of smartphones and tablet PCs.

中国电脑巨头联想(0992.HK)终于发现了制胜法宝，公布其季度净利超乎预期地增长一倍，这主要得益于其核心的新兴市场业务强劲。但不幸的是，联想发现这个法宝的时机有点太晚了，正如联想在进军新产品领域方面常常都会晚一步，这对未来可不是个好兆头。联想收购IBM个人电脑(PC)业务已六年，终于已扭亏为盈，在截至6月30日的会计年度，联想成熟市场业务贡献了7,700万美元的利润，但这与苹果相比就不值一提了。苹果在比这短得多的时间里，在中国市场几乎从零开始，在该市场销售已经超过联想。此外，联想最近推出的智能手机和平板电脑，市场反响平平，而这两个产品代表着未来发展方向。据中国媒体报导，联想在过去三个季度中乐Phone销量仅略超出70万支，而联想也表示上季乐Pad仅卖出8万台。与之形成鲜明对比的是，单是上季苹果iPad在中国销量就达到100万台，当然苹果在平板电脑市场是占了先机的。中国是联想的本土市场，本应享有天时地利，其新产品表现却远远不及苹果，因此尽管其最新季度财报貌似强劲，未来不管在国内市场，还是国际市场，都还面临沉重压力。

一句话：联想最新季度获利强劲，但千万别忽略其在智能手机和平板电脑领域的薄弱表现。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

Lenovo — Back in the Hunt?

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After years of struggling following its misguided purchase of IBM’s PC business, Lenovo (HKEx: 992) seems to be finally back in the global PC hunt, at least based on its latest results (Lenovo results). But is the company that still dominates its home China market really ready for the big leagues just yet? The numbers seem to say yes: in its latest results, it boosted its already dominant market share at home, made huge gains in emerging markets and did all that while keeping margins respectable. But I’m still not convinced this company is ready for prime time. Its NEC joint venture shows signs of its wannabe status, and bears eerie resemblance to its foolish IBM purchase. Its mobile venture seems to lack focus, and bears more of a me-too mark as well, much like its netbook strategy of a few years back. In short, this company still lacks focus in my view, relies way too much on its home China market, and is too much of a me-too company in its product development strategy. Let’s see how the numbers grow, but my guess is that the boom times won’t last too much longer.

SMARTPHONES: Xiaomi Wins India, Makes First Visit to Top Trade Show

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Bottom line: Xiaomi’s taking of the India smartphone crown and attendance at a major trade show next week are aimed at boosting its profile in the run-up to its IPO. 

Xiaomi to attend MWC

Hype is building in the run-up to what’s likely to be one of the largest high-tech IPOs this year, with word that smartphone maker Xiaomi has snatched the India crown from a fading Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and is also making its first visit to the world’s top telecoms trade show next week. Both events are important milestones for a resurgent Xiaomi, as it attempts to boost its profile for a public listing that’s likely to raise in the neighborhood of $10 billion in Hong Kong.

At the same time, the list of attendees for this year’s Mobile World Congress taking place next week in Spain is also notable for a number of brands that have purchased booths in the past but aren’t doing so this year.  Leading that list is Oppo, which briefly took the China smartphone crown last year from current leader Huawei.  Also absent from the list are past attendees including Meizu and Gionee. That probably speaks to the fact that some of these brands are feeling the squeeze of prolonged competition in the space, and are choosing to spend their limited marketing budgets elsewhere. Read Full Post…