Gmail, Netqin Spar with Chinese Censors Gmail,网秦

It seems the Chinese censors have been working overtime, with security software provider Netqin and Internet giant Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) both feeling the wrath of Chinese bureaucrats. First Netqin. I don’t know much about this company other than it’s an IPO candidate, which I reported last week. But if the media reports are right, it looks like Netqin, which specializes in mobile software, is suddenly being disabled by all three of China’s major telcos. (English article) No reason was given, but knowing how shifty some of these companies can be, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were engaging in questionable business practices. Regardless, this kind of development certainly can’t be good for an IPO. On to Google, which has accused China of slowing or blocking access to its Gmail service, after numerous users reported problems in recent weeks. (English article) This one looks like part of Google’s ongoing testy relations with Beijing, and I have no doubt the “crisis” will pass with time, especially now that the National People’s Congress is over.

Bottom Line: Netqin’s overseas IPO may have suffered a death blow at the hands of China censors, while Google’s latest tussle with Beijing will pass soon with no major consequences.

最近Gmail和网秦遭遇麻烦,显示中国网络监管部门似乎又在加班加点。据中国媒体报导,有意海外上市的手机软件公司网乎被中国三大电信运营商集体屏蔽。无论原因如何,这对网秦的IPO计划都是重大打击。最近几周,Gmail在中国的服务屡出问题,似乎是Google与中国政府磕磕碰碰的关系中出现的新插曲。但随着两会闭幕,我相信这些”问题”将逐步自行解决。

一句话:中国网监部门几乎对网秦的上市计划判了死刑。而Google在中国遇到的新问题应可小事化无。

2011: Year of the Unicom 2011:联通的好运年

If 2010 was the year of China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHT) and every year before that belonged to China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), then 2011 could finally be shaping up as the year of China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), the perennial underperformer of China’s telecoms world. The latest monthly 3G data is out and continues to show Unicom winning steady share from China Mobile in the 3G space. (English article). Interestingly, Unicom added nearly twice as many 3G users in February as new users for its older 2G GSM service, showing this company clearly knows where its future lies and is playing to its strength in the form of its superior 3G technology. At the same time, there’s an interesting report coming out of the Chinese media saying Unicom has finished a major management overhaul, ending two years of painful restructuring after its merger with the former China Netcom, leaving it with a younger, more vibrant management team. (Chinese article). With all these things going in its favor, Unicom is looking increasingly like a leader in 2011.

Bottom line: Unicom is making all the right moves, positioning itself to become China’s best performing telco in 2011

如果说2010年是中国电信<0728.HK><CHT.N>的好运年,那麽在2011年,风水似乎终於转向了中国电信市场的2011千年老二:联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>。最近的月度3G数据出炉,显示联通继续稳步夺取中国移动在3G市场的份额。有意思的是,联通在2月份新增3G用户数量几乎是其新增2G用户数的两倍,这说明联通深谙电信业的未来走向,并且通过3G技术扩大自己的优势。与此同时,中国媒体报导联通完成了一次重大内部管理架构改革,新的管理团队更加年轻,更有活力。考虑上述因素,联通看似将成为2011年的赢家。

一句话:联通屡出妙棋,有望在2011年成为中国表现最佳的电信公司。

PetroChina Gets in Bed wtih Saudis to Secure Oil Supplies 中石油的沙特“情缘”

Saudi Arabia has seen the future, and the world’s biggest oil exporter sees it in a place called China: a realization that will play to Beijing’s advantage. Saudi Aramco, the nation’s oil producing arm, has announced it’s pairing up with top Chinese oil producer PetroChina (NYSE: PTR; HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857) to build a large new refinery in south China’s Yunnan province, a move that plays nicely to the Chinese producer as it looks to secure its supplies in these volatile times for oil prices. (English article). This move is especially interesting  coming even as Beijing pumps billions into developing its new energy industries to reduce its reliance on oil. But let’s face it: the new energy aspirations are still at least 5 or 6 years from producing any meaningful results, and so China is going to need plenty of oil to keep its economy humming during that period. And as far as PetroChina is concerned, this tie-up could help to shield it from some of the wild swings the oil market has seen lately, which could only benefit its bottom line.

Bottom line: PetroChina’s new refinery with Saudi Aramco will provide a welcome new lifeline to the Chinese firm in helping to buffer it from wild price swings on the global oil market.

世界产油大国沙特阿拉伯预见到了未来,而这个未来就在中国。国有的沙特阿美石油公司宣布,将与中国石油巨头中石油<PTR.N><0857.HK><601857.SH>联手在中国云南省建设一个巨大的炼油厂。

这一举动对中石油意义非凡,尤其是在当前的动荡时期,有利於中石油获得稳定的石油供给。尽管中国正在投入巨资建设新能源产业,降低对石油的依赖,但实话实说,开发新能源至少在五六年内还不可能产生任何有意义的成果,中国经济对石油的依赖短期内也就无法降低。

一句话:中石油与沙特阿美的合资炼油厂对前者来说是大好消息,有助於其抵御国际市场油价动荡的冲击。

Snaptu: Facebook’s China Back Door? Facebook在中国走“後门”?

Now that the salt shortage in Shanghai seems to be easing as people realize it isn’t practical to ingest 10 kg of salt per day to protect themselves from  Japanese radiation, it’s time to move on to some real news. One interesting report today is coming from the US, where China lockout victim Facebook seems to be sniffing for a backdoor into the country. The world’s most popular social networking site, available nearly everywhere except for China, said over the weekend it will buy mobile apps developer Snaptu for around $70 million (English article; Chinese article). As chance would have it, a friend was telling me a few nights ago how Snaptu offers mobile phone users a backdoor into Facebook in China, though I haven’t verified this personally. It’s an interesting concept, and I’ve no doubt this may be part of Facebook’s consideration in buying Snaptu. But let’s face it, Facebook: China doesn’t want you, and I’d say it’s just a matter of weeks, months or even days now before Snaptu users find their service suddenly blocked. So other popular sites like Kaixinwang and Renren, both candidates for overseas IPOs in the not-too-distant future, need not worry — the censors in Beijing will protect you from the evil Facebook.

Bottom line: Facebook’s Snaptu buy could provide a backdoor into China, but it’s just a matter of time  (probably very short) before Snaptu also falls victim to Chinese censors.

美国传来消息,在中国被封的社交网站巨头Facebook似乎正寻求曲线进入中国市场。

这 家(在除了中国以外的)全球最火的社交网站周末称,将以7,000万美元价格购买移动应用程序开发商Snaptu。凑巧,最近有朋友告诉我 说,Snaptu程序让手机用户能在中国访问Facebook。尽管我还没能亲自验证这种说法,这的确是个有趣的情况,恐怕也是Facebook购买 Snaptu的动机之一。但容我向Facebook说句大实话:中国就是不想让你进来。如果真想通过Snaptu走後门,这後门被堵死也是早晚的事。所 以,最近有意在海外IPO的中国社交网站开心网和人人都不必惊慌:北京有贵人相助尔等,把那些邪恶的Facebook拒之城下。

一句话:後门不可靠。(完)

China Mobile Looks for Help in Handsets

China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941), the world’s biggest mobile carrier and increasingly one of the world’s most boring companies, is trying to bring some zip back to its bottom line by selling phones. The company has just reported another quarter of snooze-worthy numbers that saw its profit rise a scant 3.7 percent — repeating a refrain from the last two to three years. (English article) The company, which has been loathe to promote its second-rate 3G service, keeps trying to wow the market with talk of 4G and how everything will get better then. But since that’s so far off — at least 3 years by most estimates — now it’s turning to cell phones as well to try and jazz up its bottom line, with its buy out of Topssion, a customerizer and distributor of handsets, from its former partners that included ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. (English article) Topssion isn’t a company I’ve ever heard of, so don’t look for any results too quickly. But if China Mobile really puts its mind to this, especially given its huge clout in the handset market, this buy could still end up being a lucrative and much needed source of new income to boost its anemic bottom line.

Bottom line: China Mobile is in desperate need of more lucrative businesses to jump start its profit growth, and its purchase of a China-based handset company should help in that direction.

 

Ping An, Beggars Cup in Hand, Looks Worrisome

At one point, Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), the country’s No. 2 insurer, was the talk of the  town, with ambitious plans to become a diversified financial services company similar to Citigroup (NYSE: C). Now it looks like that vision may be closer to the truth than many realized. With cup in hand, Ping An has gone to the market for cash and come back with $2.5 billion from a Hong Kong investor, who now becomes a 3.5 percent owner of the company. (English article) Investors didn’t like the sale at all, which came at a discount, and dumped Ping An shares big time after the announcement. Granted, Ping An now has a big bank under its belt and thus may feel compelled to follow China’s other big banks in raising more money to cushion its balance sheet against a potential downturn in the real estate market. Given Ping An’s location and domination in Guangdong and particularly the boomtown of Shenzhen across the Hong Kong border, I see rough times ahead for the company when the downturn comes, which could hit Shenzhen especially hard.

Bottom line: Ping An’s recent cash call is a worrisome sign, as it braces for rough times ahead due to its big exposure in the real estate market of southern boomtown Shenzhen

Xunlei Looks Even More Interesting in Baidu Tie-Up

So, who exactly is this company called Xunlei, which I wrote about a couple of weeks ago as it looked like it was moving toward an IPO later this year? (previous post) Now we hear that the video sharing site whose investors include both Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) AND its Chinese archrival Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is forming forming a tie-up with the latter for an unspecified consumer-oriented downloading service. (Chinese article) It sounds like Xunlei will make its videos somehow available through the Baidu’s dominant search portal, in what sounds like a potent  combination. With names like Baidu and Google behind it, Xunlei is starting to look like a very good prospect to take on some of the more established players in video sharing like money-losing Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou.  I’d previously mentioned that Google might try to take out Xunlei prior to an IPO, but with both Google and Baidu vying for influence that could be more problematic. Either way, Xunlei is certainly a company to watch going forward.

Bottom line: Xunlei is a strong-looking up-and-comer, backed by Baidu and Google, that could pose some strong challenges to other video sharing sites like Youku and Tudou.

China’s Chery: Not Quite Ready for Outback Prime Time

Time for my latest comment on China’s homegrown automakers, and how they’re not quite ready for global prime time despite making noises in that direction. The latest to make such rumblings is indy superstar Chery, which has entered the Australia market with plans to sell — gasp — a whopping 5,000 cars there this year! (English article). Granted that Rome wasn’t built in a day, but 5,000 is hardly going to give these guys a jump start in Oz anytime soon. If we were going to handicap this race to export to the West, I’d have to give Beijing Automotive Industry Corp (BAIC) and perhaps Geely (HKEx: 175) pole position, perhaps followed by a weaker SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) and maybe BYD (HKEx: 1211), all of which have  some kind of foreign connection. Chery may see the global market as ripe for its picking, but sophisticated Western buyers might find this offering, with a cheap price tag but little else in its favor, still a bit green.

Bottom line: Chery’s foray into Australia won’t go anywhere fast, with BAIC and Geely standing the best shot at being first to penetrate Western markets.

Shanghai Support to Provide Welcome Tonic for Disney

Time to turn our attention to Disney (NYSE: DIS), which was has been the subject of a slew of recent media reports on its plans to build a park in Shanghai. (English article) Most of those quote Shanghai Mayor Han Zheng as saying the park’s initial phase will cost just under $4 billion, though none says how much of those funds will come from Mickey and how much will come from Shanghai. But given Shanghai’s near fanatical zeal to land this project and one-up rival Beijing, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the next Disneyland’s host city forking out the lion’s share of money for this project, similar to what an overly zealous Hong Kong did about a decade ago. This is brilliant strategy by Disney, which gets something like 40 percent of its profit from its theme parks, in taking advantage of the huge popularity of its characters in China. I see major contributions from this park to the company’s bottom line once it opens, as hordes of Mickey fans from throughout China make the pilgrimage to Shanghai to see their favorite mouse in person.

Bottom line: The hype surrounding China’s first Disneyland in Shanghai is just getting started, with handsome rewards in store for Disney down the road.

Weibo: Sina Looking at Big Bucks in Micro Packages

It’s a relatively slow news day, so I thought I’d start off with another “seeing is believing” story, this one on Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) wildly popular microblogging Weibo service. Sure, we’ve all heard about how Weibo is becoming the Twitter of China, but yesterday I got to see the real thing in action and it was quite impressive. Within literally 2 or 3 minutes of an acquaintance posting an item on his Weibo site about my blog, the “news” had been rebroadcast by at least 3 or 4 of his followers, and a woman sitting behind us in the coffee shop where we talking, whom neither of us knew, came over and said hello. Granted, none of this resulted in a significant increase in traffic to my blog, but that’s really beside the point. Clearly lots of people with not enough to do are spending time on this thing, which a savvy Sina should easily be able to monetize and use to generate handsome revenues and profits. The way this thing is growing, with a current user base of over 100 million, I see spin-off and IPO not far down the line, and another feather in Sina’s cap as it tries to become a diversified Web company.

VERDICT: Weibo looks really sharp, and is likely to IPO in the next couple of years bringing handsome returns for its parent and founder, Sina.

4G Trial Expansion Looms, But Real Networks Still Years Off

One of my well-placed sources informs me that China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941) will announce a major expansion of its 4G trials shortly after the National People’s Congress wraps up in Beijing in a week or two. China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou has been talking openly at the NPC about the expansion of trials to seven major cities in the near future, and each of the big equipment suppliers — Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763), Nokia Siemens Networks, Ericsson (Stockholm: ERCb; Nasdaq: ERIC) and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALUA) is likely to get one city to showcase what it can do with TD-LTE, the homegrown 4G standard that China Mobile is developing. With early signs that China may actually be able to export this standard, the stakes are surely higher here than they are with TD-LTE’s predecessor, the dog known as TD-SCDMA. Still, given the fact that most of China is just getting started with 3G after years of delays, I don’t see the telecoms regulator issuing 4G licenses anytime soon, perhaps late 2012 at the very earliest. China Mobile’s earnest pressing ahead with 4G trials, at least in my mind, is probably more wishful thinking, as the company loses some of its colossal market share in the 3G space to smaller rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 763; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHT).

VERDICT: China won’t give out 4G licenses until late 2012 at earliest, and in the meantime China Mobile will continue to lose market share due to its inferior 3G technology