First Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) warned earlier this week that its Q1 earnings would miss its own guidance, and a day later Yingli (NYSE: YGE) issued a similar warning. (Trina announcement; Yingli announcement) So what’s going on here? It seems the problem lies in Italy, where a bit of regulatory indecision has finally been resolved, reducing the size of the country’s solar-installation incentives. It’s probably only a matter of days before other big solar producers reliant on Italy follow with similar announcements, or they may just wait until reporting time to give investors the bad news. The Italy effect will ripple through the market for at least the next few months, pressuring prices through the fourth quarter. Of course that’s good news for anyone building solar plants, but I expect that analysts are busy revising downward all their earnings forecasts for the big Chinese solar firms for the rest of the year. All this highlights how reliant this sector is on government incentives and underscores the pressure on Beijing to roll out more of its own incentives to make sure this vibrant field of domestic manufacturers stays healthy. (previous post)
Bottom line: China’s solar cell makers and their suppliers will take a revenue hit in the next two quarters, pressuring Beijing to announce new incentives to prop up the industry.
天合光能<TSL.N>本周早些时候发出警告称,其第一季盈利将达不到公司预期目标。一天之後,英利绿色能源<YGE.N>也发布了类似警告。那麽到底发生了什麽事呢?问题似乎出在意大利方面,因该国终於解决了监管方面的优柔寡断问题,减少了对本国太阳能设施安装的激励措施。大概在未来几天内,其他依赖意大利市场的大型太阳能企业也会相继发布类似警告。意大利效应至少会在未来数月干扰市场,对价格形成的压力也会绵延到第四季度。当然,这对那些建造太阳能电厂的人来说是个好消息,但我预计,分析师们正忙于下调对中国大型太阳能企业今年余下时间的盈利预测。所有这些都说明这个产业是多么依赖政府的支持和激励,也突显了中国政府面临的压力:即要推出更多国内刺激政策,以确保正在蓬勃发展的中国太阳能企业安然无恙。
一句话:在未来两个季度,中国太阳能电池制造商及其供应商的营收将受创,从而可能迫使中国政府出台新的激励措施,以支持该行业发展。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ China Boosts Solar Firms with Power Plan 中国太阳能产业荣景可待
◙ LDK Looking for Cash as Sales Dry Up 赛维LDK太阳能公司销量下滑 现金接近枯竭
approval at the highest levels in Beijing – would seem to be a new approach aimed at circumventing any politicians worried about a Chinese firm taking control of a US one in this sensitive area. The only problem is, I don’t see any way that Nanshan or any other Chinese company can succeed in this labor-intensive sector in the US, as their main advantage is the low costs they can get in China. Furthermore, union politics common at this kind of factory have been difficult for Chinese firms operating overseas to navigate in the past, and I see no reason that Nanshan – which has little or no overseas experience – will fare any better.
At first blush, Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) recent purchase of 4.6 percent of popular TV and movie production house Huayi Bros (Shenzhen: 300027) for 450 million yuan, or about $70 million, looks like just another silly purchase by a company with way too much cash on its hands. (
It looks like China’s wireless broadband space is about to get a whole lot hotter — literally. Just a month after China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) announced a campaign to have 1 million hot spots nationwide within three years (previous post), the China Daily is reporting rival China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHT) has announced a similar plan to better serve the nation’s growing legions of wireless Web surfers. I previously called the China Mobile plan misguided, and I think the same is almost true for China Telecom. I say “almost”, because with China Telecom the plan makes a little more sense. Whereas China Mobile has little or no experience in this space, China Telecom has become a broadband specialist over the last few years through its fixed-line broadband offering, so presumably has more know-how in the area, both in terms of infrastructure and also in the equally important field of marketing. I still believe that most wireless broadband subscribers would rather get their service through 3G that’s available everywhere instead of via wi-fi that’s only available in select hot spots. But if anyone has a chance at succeeding in a national wi-fi network, I would give China Telecom the better odds over China Mobile.
Beijing must really be worried about Facebook coming to China. As you may recall, Chinese media were buzzing a few weeks ago that the global social networking giant was quietly talking to a Chinese partner about a joint venture (
could bring some excitement back into the price element of the equation, and Ctrip should certainly have an edge in this space over other new group buying players due to its strong connections with most major Chinese hotels. In fact, this move fits a broader pattern that has seen Ctrip management take a much more conservative approach to new business, with the result that its new moves — while far fewer than those from the likes of Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) — often stand a much better chance of success.
McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), in the unfamiliar position of being a constant runner-up in China to rival KFC (NYSE: YUM), is preparing an unusual campaign to try to narrow the gap. The new strategy involves opening more drive-through restaurants to tap the growing number of mobile Chinese with the new cars and not enough places to drive them. According to a Chinese media report, McDonald’s plans to open 700 new stores in the next two years — increasing its current count by 50 percent — with about half of those offering drive-through service. (
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