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China Tech Start-Ups: Coming Home? 中国科技企业扎堆国内上市？

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There’s an interesting report out this morning noting that a growing number of Chinese tech start-ups that once looked like strong candidates for New York IPOs are opting for home listings instead, deterred by higher scrutiny and weak sentiment overseas and a much friendlier — if not volatile — environment on ChiNext, China’s 2-year-old Nasdaq-style enterprise board. In the latest move on that front, Chinese media are reporting a company called Baofeng, maker of a popular online and cellphone video player, has filed to make a public listing on the ChiNext, reversing its plans last year when it said it would make a 2012 listing overseas. (Chinese article) Frankly speaking, Baofeng does have the exact profile of a company that would have traditionally gone to either the Nasdaq or New York Stock Exchange to raise funds as its first choice a year ago, followed by Hong Kong as a second choice and the ChiNext as a distant third. But much has changed from a year ago, when foreign investors were still quite bullish on Chinese Internet stocks, giving them relatively rich valuations compared with peers based in more developed western markets. Such stocks have suffered a major reversal of fortune over the last year, with investors dumping their shares following a series of accounting scandals that also led to higher regulatory scrutiny and the delisting of a number of smaller players. Amid all the scandals last year, China’s securities regulator also got involved, trying to insert itself into the overseas listing process as the central government also reportedly discussed either limiting or shutting down that process completely. As far as I know, nothing specific has happened yet in terms of new Chinese government oversight, though a number of big-name western investment banks have refused to underwrite New York IPOs for some China firms over concerns about their accounting. In one of the highest profile cases, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) both reportedly resigned from an IPO last summer for leading group buying site LaShou, which went on to hire some smaller banks but has yet to make an offering. (previous post) The lone Chinese company that did make a New York IPO this year, discount retailer Vipshop (NYSE: VIPS) was an unqualified disaster, pricing well below its indicated range and falling 30 percent since its trading debut. This new report notes that Baofeng is just the latest example of a Chinese tech start-up going to ChiNext rather than overseas, following similar moves by firms like online game developers Wushen Century Network Technology and Suzhou Snail Game. It’s probably too early to say if this move to the ChiNext will be a long-term phenomenon, and I suspect these start-ups that list there will quickly discover the market’s high volatility is far less desirable than the more stable environments in New York and Hong Kong. But if the ChiNext can implement reforms to lower volatility in the market, perhaps by opening up to more foreign investors, it could seize this opportunity to quickly position itself as a strong alternative to New York and Hong Kong for China’s vibrant field of tech start-ups.

Bottom line: A recent move by tech start-ups to China’s Nasdaq-style enterprise board could become a viable IPO alternative if the board can create a more stable listing environment.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China IPO Winter Goes On as Vipshop Flops 唯品会大跌，中国IPO冬季持续

◙ Outlook Cloudy As Shanda Refiles for Literature IPO 盛大文学重启赴美IPO计划

◙ China IPO Train Hits Bump With Vancl Resignation 中国上市事件撞上凡客诚品CFO辞职

Gaopeng, FTuan Lead Group Buying M&A 高朋网和F团或引领中国团购业并购潮

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Finally there’s a rumored merger in China’s overheated group buying space that looks smart, with Groupon’s (Nasdaq: GRPN) struggling joint venture Gaopeng reportedly in talks to combine with another struggling firm called FTuan. (English article) Such mergers are sorely needed in the group buying space, where nearly everyone is losing money due to rampant competition and quality control problems are leading to growing signs that Beijing will step in to heavily regulate this unruly industry. According to the reports, citing an unnamed industry source, Gaopeng, a joint venture between Groupon and Chinese Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700) is negotiating a merger with FTuan, though no deal has been reached yet. This deal is no doubt being brokered by Tencent, which invested $30 million in FTuan last year, making it a stakeholder in both Gaopeng and FTuan. (English article) I won’t even ask why Tencent decided to invest in another group buying site just months after launching Gaopeng with Groupon, in what must have looked like a clear conflict of interests at the time. But regardless of the background, this combination, if it happens, looks like a smart move for both companies and the broader group buying space where many players are struggle to stay in business as they burn through their cash piles and investors refuse to provide more money. Gapeng itself began mass layoffs just months after its launch early last year, and it’s unclear how committed Groupon is to the venture, especially as Groupon itself comes under scrutiny after saying it will restate some of its financial information following its Nasdaq IPO last year. We don’t know very much about FTuan, but previous media reports indicate the company has received around $100 million in funding to date, including the $30 million from Tencent, meaning it should be a relatively large company whose scale is comparable to Gaopeng’s and thus should make it a meaningful merger partner. Honestly speaking, I’m surprised we haven’t seen more such merger talks these last few months, but perhaps that’s not surprising in China’s entrepreneurial Internet space where many bosses might prefer to simply see their firms go out of business rather than merge with a rival. One such company that looks headed in that direction is Groupon.cn, unrelated to the US Groupon or Gaopeng, which has reportedly cut most of its staff after it used up most of its cash and investors refused to provide more. (previous post) Another company that could probably benefit from a big merger is LaShou, whose New York IPO derailed last year after regulators reportedly had questions about its accounting. My sources tell me LaShou is reportedly preparing to file again for the IPO, but it could certainly improve its chances and even create some investor excitement if it were to merge with another major Chinese player first, such as 55tuan. Look for more of these mergers to come in the months ahead, along with a steady stream of closures by cashless companies, with a few interesting players likely to emerge in a much steadier consolidated industry by the end of this year.

Bottom line: Gaopeng’s rumored merger talks with FTuan are the first of what will be many mergers and closures for group buying sites this year, with consolidation likely to wrap up by year end.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Groupon.cn Becomes 2012 First Group Buy Victim 团宝网员工被放假 中国团购业料将加速整合

◙ Investors Shun Struggling Groupon.cn, Yaodian100 投资者规避挣扎中的团宝网和耀点100

◙ Group Buy Clean-Up Grows, E-Commerce Next 团购行业洗牌加剧，下一个是电子商务

Disney, Tencent Tie-Up to Animate China 迪斯尼、腾讯合作研发动漫

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Coming soon to movie screens in China: “Pudgy Penguin: The Movie”. That may sound like fantasy for now, but it could soon become reality following a newly announced partnership between animation giant Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Chinese Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700), whose ubiquitous logo featuring a pudgy cartoon penguin is practically synonymous with the web in China. (company announcement; English article) Talks of the tie-up were first leaked last week, at which time I predicted the pair would form a joint venture animation studio similar to the one announced earlier this year between another US industry leader, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and local partner Shanghai Media Group (SMG). (previous post) The structure of Disney’s partnership looks a little different from a traditional joint venture, with the 2 sides announcing they would set up an animation R&D center along with China Animation Group. The Ministry of Culture also appears to be heavily involved, meaning the venture should have good government connections to help it steer clear of China’s huge bureaucracy governing the sensitive media sector. Despite its name as an R&D center and the emphasis on developing local talent for China’s animation industry, which look mostly like a public relations exercise, this initiative closely resembles an animation studio in everything but name, with the announcement saying it will develop content for the China market. From my perspective, I really do like this particular tie-up, as it brings together a major foreign player in the form of Disney, together with a major new media player like Tencent and government connections from the Ministry of Culture and the China Animation Group. Tencent is currently making aggressive moves in the online video market, and, joking aside, its animated pudgy penguin would make a great character for a future animated movie or TV or Internet series to help promote the Tencent brand and the partnership in general. While the government’s close involvement has its positive elements, it could also be one of the new venture’s weak points, as government involvement in anything tends to add an extra layer of bureaucracy from officials who often have other agendas besides running an efficient business. But then again, no one ever said this was an official business, which could be another weakness in this partnership if and when it ever starts to earn profits. Comparing this Disney-Tencent tie-up with the DreamWorks-SMG one, I would have to say I personally like the DreamWorks one better, since SMG, as China’s second biggest media group, is also a quasi-government organization but lacks formal government ties, giving it more room to innovate. But that said, China’s animation market is certainly big enough for major joint ventures led by 2 of the world’s top players, and I would fully expect both  to see strong success both in China and also potentially through exporting their products to other Asian markets.

Bottom line: Disney’s new tie-up with Tencent looks well positioned to capitalize on China’s animation market, though close government participation remains a medium-sized risk factor.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Facebook, DreamWorks in Latest China Moves Facebook、梦工厂在华最新动向

◙ Disney-Tencent Talks: China Looking Animated 迪士尼与腾讯沟通动漫合作

◙ More Media IPOs From People’s Daily, Shopping Channel 电视购物，继人民日报后又一计划上市的媒体

News Digest: April 11, 2012 报摘： 2012年4月11日

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 11. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ Disney (NYSE: DIS) Named a Founding Partner of China’s Animation Creative R&D Initiative (Businesswire)

◙ Gaopeng to Merge with FTuan – Source (English article)

◙ China’s ZTE (HKEx: 763) Planned US Computer Sale to Iran (English article)

◙ Anti-virus Firm Rising to IPO (English article)

◙ SMIC (HKEx: 981) Raises First Quarter 2012 Revenue and Gross Margin Guidance (HKEx announcement)

Talks Swirls on Baidu’s Lekutian 百度乐酷天拟走“日系风格”

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Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) has been phenomenally successful in its core online search business, but it’s had a much harder time diversifying into other areas like social networking and e-commerce. The company called it quits in microblogging last year after a late arrival and half-hearted effort in the space (previous post), and now its latest e-commerce initiative, called Lekutian, appears to also be suffering from its own identity crisis. Lekutian is Baidu’s second major attempt at getting into the lucrative but highly competitive e-commerce space, following its failed effort with another site, called You’a, last year. With Lekutian, Baidu was hoping to avoid the same fate by setting up the business as a joint venture with Rakuten (Tokyo: 4755), one of Japan’s a leading e-commerce companies. Signs that the venture wasn’t progressing as quickly as planned first emerged late last year when domestic media reported that Baidu was halting its new investment in the business — reports that Lekutian denied. Now a new flurry of reports have again emerged on Lekutian, with some saying the venture is making a major directional shift while others are saying the site is implementing major layoffs. (English article; Chinese article) Not surprisingly, Lekutian is denying the layoff reports, though it is also talking openly about the directional shift. One report cites a company spokeswoman saying the site wants to take advantage of its Japan connections to transform itself into an e-commerce platform with a distinctly Japanese flavor, including Japanese brand products and a more Japanese look and feel. The site will also emphasize a more mall-like business model, similar to Alibaba’s Tianmao, which operates a platform on which other retailers can open online stores rather than selling merchandise directly itself. Frankly speaking, this move by Lekutian smells a bit of desperation to me, and hints that the site isn’t doing very well and could easily end up with a similar fate  to the failed You’a. At the same time, I should commend Baidu this time for realizing that it is a latecomer to the e-commerce game, and will have to develop a more niche product as it clearly can’t compete with much bigger and more established giants like Tianmaol, 360Buy and Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), as well as sites operated and invested by big foreign names like Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). I do question whether the “Japanese experience” niche that Lekutian is pursuing will find a big audience in China, and suspect the site will ultimately end up as a small player that will later get quietly shut down. Not all of Baidu’s non-core investments have done so badly, with a big bet last year on an online travel site called Qunar looking like it could have good potential. (previous post) If Baidu is smart, it might be advised to invest in more existing companies like Qunar that already have a strong operating record, rather than trying to start its own new businesses, where its record is decidedly not so good.

Bottom line: A major directional shift by Baidu-invested e-commerce site Lekutian hints at troubles at the joint venture, which could end up as a niche player at best.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu’s Qunar: Going Places 百度投资的去哪儿网：前途无量

◙ Baidu’s Takes a $300 Mln Spin on Travel Market 百度斥资3亿美元进军旅游市场

◙ Baidu’s Latest Botch: Microblogging 百度“微博”的倒掉

Overseas China Stocks on Hold, Waiting for Catalyst

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Overseas listed Chinese stocks have entered a sort of holding pattern these last few weeks, with investors neither embracing nor dumping them as the market waits for a catalyst to give some direction. A recent scathing Forbes report on security software maker Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) has done little to dent that company’s stock, reflecting an ebb in investor skepticism that battered such shares last year. (previous post) But the flop of the first IPO this year by a Chinese firm in the US, Vipshop (NYSE: VIPS), also shows investors are far from willing the embrace these stocks again. The needed new catalyst could lead the market either way, depending on what it is. Famous short seller Muddy Waters is hoping to provide that catalyst to lead the group lower, saying it will issue a new report in the next few weeks on several Hong Kong-listed China stocks. (Chinese article) But a blockbuster IPO in either Hong Kong or the US could lead the market higher if the right company emerges to rekindle investor interest in the China growth story. These last few weeks have been full of mixed signals, both on the plus and minus side for this group of entrepreneurial firms whose shares were hammered  last year by a series of accounting scandals that undermined the entire sector’s credibility. Negative sentiment led to a halt in new overseas listings dating back to last summer, when a disastrous IPO for online video sharing site Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) sent the market into hibernation. Vipshop, a money-losing online discount retailer, tested the waters to see if sentiment had improved last month by making the first IPO by a Chinese company in the US for more than half a year. Unfortunately, it discovered investors were still highly skeptical, as its shares priced below their previously indicated range and then fell another 15 percent on their trading debut. (previous post) Its shares continued to fall after that, and now trade at about two-thirds of their IPO price. But then weeks later, Forbes issued a scathing report on Qihoo 360 questioning a number of its accounting practices and implying that its auditor, Deloitte, might resign the account later this year. That report followed a similar one late last year by a small research house named Citron, whose motives were more obvious due to its status as a short seller. Despite both reports, however, Qihoo shares have remained remarkably stable in their current range, indicating investors aren’t as willing to believe negative news as they were last year, when new short selling reports were coming out almost weekly. So, what exactly is the market waiting for? In my view, it wants a clear signal one way or the other on the China market’s growth potential and the accounting issue. Muddy Waters founder Carson Block clearly wants his firm to be a catalyst in the negative direction by saying he will soon issue a report on Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms that will presumably show more problems. At the same time, a solid IPO by a good Chinese firm could easily attract investors back to the space if a good candidate comes along. That would mean China would have to find a company that is posting both strong double-digit revenue growth and is also profitable, with the profits being especially important for investors wary of buying into money-losing companies. Such companies do exist, with e-commerce leader Alibaba being the most notable example. Unfortunately, Alibaba has shown no signs of making an IPO anytime soon, and other companies with a similar profile are far from plentiful. The handful of other companies that have filed for US IPOs so far this year, including car rental firm China Auto and online literature firm Shanda Cloudary, are both losing money despite their strong growth potential, meaning neither is likely to provide the right tonic the market needs to rekindle positive sentiment. I would bet the Muddy Waters’ report will do little to further undermine investor confidence, though a resignation by Deloitte or another major auditor from a big Chinese company could send the market back into a tailspin. In the meantime, investors will be waiting for the arrival off a white knight like Alibaba to make an IPO and breathe new excitement into the market — something also unlikely to happen until the second half of the year at earliest.

Bottom line: Shares of overseas listed Chinese stocks are likely to remain in a state of limbo until a major catalyst comes, either in the form of a new accounting scandal or a blockbuster IPO.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Qihoo: The Next Accounting Victim? 奇虎360：下一个会计丑闻受害者？

◙ China IPO Winter Goes On as Vipshop Flops 唯品会大跌，中国IPO冬季持续

◙ Confidence Crisis Easing For US China Stocks 中国概念股信任危机缓和

LDK Cuts, Suntech Waits As Solar Winter Nears End 太阳能行业冬季将结束：赛维裁员，尚德等待

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Spring could be coming soon for embattled solar cell makers, according to the chief executive of industry leader Suntech (NYSE: STP), who said the sector could return to the profit column by the end of the year. Unfortunately, that could be too late for weaker players like LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), which is reportedly making massive layoffs as it struggles just to survive through the current solar winter. The last year has been a tough one for solar cell makers, which have seen prices plunge amid a huge supply glut and the threat of anti-dumping tariffs by western markets like the US and Europe, which accuse Beijing of unfairly subsidizing its industry. But recent stabilization of prices and signs that US punitive tariffs won’t be as harsh as many feared (previous post) have brought some new optimism back to the space, leading Suntech Chairman Shi Zhengrong to forecast that his company and the entire industry should return to profitability by around the fourth quarter of this year. (English article) He added that shipments will begin to rise on a sequential basis starting in the second quarter of this year as manufacturers finish clearing out old inventory accumulated during the industry’s worst-ever downturn. From that point, margins should start to improve, helping companies to pare their losses and make it back to the black by the end of the year. Investors seem cautiously optimistic on the future, with Suntech shares rising sharply at the beginning of the year before giving back a lot of the gains in recent weeks. Still, at current levels they are about 20 percent above their all-time lows reached last year, and I would expect them to gradually rise through the year barring any unforeseen new developments. While Suntech and its healthier peers may have the resources to weather the next 8 or 9 months, the same might not be true for LDK, which is implementing mass layoffs in its struggle to survive through the current downturn, according to domestic media reports citing unnamed company sources. (Chinese article) LDK isn’t commenting, but it is struggling under a massive pile of debt, and has only survived due to a large issue of new bonds last year that many believe were purchased by Chinese government entities. Like Suntech, LDK shares also rallied sharply at the beginning of the year then gave back much of the gains, though they are also still up around 20 percent from all-time lows. Right now all solar shares are clearly moving in unison, but I would expect to see a divergence begin sometime around the middle of the year after companies starting giving their first quarter earnings reports and guidance for the rest of the year. At that point, look for healthier players like Suntech to show some strong growth potential, while weaker players like LDK could get stuck in the doldrums for a longer time — if they manage to survive the current downturn.

Bottom line: The solar power sector should see a gradual rebound for the rest of the year and could return to profits by year end, but that may be too late for some of its weaker players.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Solar Tariffs: US Takes Middle Road 太阳能关税：美国采取折中路线

◙ Price Trumps Tech For Solar 光伏投资者重技术但更重产品价格

◙ New Solar Storm Brews in Europe 欧盟或发起反倾销调查 中国光伏业再蒙阴影

 

China’s Resource Binge: Bubble Building 中国资源并购潮：酝酿泡沫

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Chinese resource firms have embarked on a global buying binge over the last year, paying big premiums for assets to produce commodities like oil and gold on the assumption that high prices will allow them to earn strong profits on their investments. But these billions of dollars in purchases could easily end up worthless if commodities prices return to earth in the next few years – a strong possibility for these highly cyclical industries that looks even more likely as China’s overheated economy heads for its own much-needed correction. Barely a month goes by these days without announcement of a major new purchase or other major initiative by a Chinese resource firm, with last week alone seeing three such deals. In the first, top Chinese aluminum producer Chalco (HKEx: 2600) announced it would offer nearly $1 billion to increase its stake in a Mongolian coal mining project, paying a 28 percent premium for new shares to Canada-listed Ivanhoe Resources (Toronoto: IVN). Just days later, the state-owned parent of PetroChina (HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857; NYSE: PTR) announced it was in talks with several major foreign oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, for a major project to develop shale oil in the Xinjiang region. (English article) That announcement was the latest in an ongoing series of similar domestic and off-shore deals by China’s largest oil producer as it heeds Beijing’s call to develop more expensive unconventional energy sources. And at the end of the week, Zijin Mining (Hong Kong: 2899; Shanghai: 601899), China’s largest gold miner, announced it would invest $235 million to take a controlling stake in Norton Gold Fields (Sydney: NGF), paying a 46 percent premium for shares of the Australian firm. (English article) All these companies are rushing to take advantage of high commodity prices, including oil that now sells for more than $100 per barrel and gold that continually reaches new highs. But other commodities like aluminum are already showing weakness – testimony to the highly cyclical nature of many of these commodities. The 3 deals announced last week all carry major risk for their buyers, each trying to take advantage of high global prices. Chaclo is not only paying a sizable premium for its Mongolia gamble, but the deal is also taking it into the coal and energy sector where it has little or no experience. Zijin Mining is also paying a big premium for its Australia purchase, again betting that global gold prices will remain high. PetroChina’s broader bid to develop shale oil and gas around the world carriers a high degree of risk as well, as its wide array of initiatives into this costlier energy area could end up uneconomical if oil prices ever fall back to more historical levels. (previous post) An interesting parallel to the current commodities frenzy might be the worldwide real estate bubble of the 1980s, when Japanese firms flush with cash and global aspirations embarked on a massive buying spree. That movement drove property prices to record levels in many markets, including the US, as Japanese buyers snapped up properties throughout the world under the assumption that values could only go higher. Of course, anyone who lived through that period knows the property bubble ultimately burst, bankrupting many Japanese firms and leaving the country’s major banks with huge volumes of bad loans. The current Chinese buying binge has many similar qualities, again involving major companies buying assets at big premiums and in risky areas that could easily become uneconomical if global commodity prices come down. There’s always the possibility that prices have entered a new phase and will remain at their current levels or even rise higher in the years ahead on growing demand from China and other developing markets. But if history is any indicator, the current bubble is likely to burst in the next two to three years, quite possibly leaving China’s resource firms with billions of dollars in worthless global assets.

Bottom line: China’s resource companies could end up with billions of dollars of worthless assets if commodities prices return to historical levels in the next 2-3 years.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Oil Majors Step Into Troubled Waters 中海油卷入南中国海争端

◙ Int’l Miners Dig For China Dollars 外资希望搭载中国矿企全球并购的顺风车

◙ Alternate Fossil Fuels: China’s Newest White Elephant 过度追求替代性化石燃料或给中国留下大量沉重“鸡肋”

Beijing Help Undermines Huawei Image Drive 中国商务部替华为出面或适得其反

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At least it wasn’t the Public Security Bureau. That’s what the public relations people at Huawei Technologies are probably saying as they come back to work this morning, after China’s Commerce Ministry spoke out late last week in the company’s defense after Australia’s government forbid Huawei from bidding to help build a new high-speed network due to security concerns. (Chinese article) Huawei has repeatedly run into similar concerns over the past year, hitting another brick wall in the US in 2011 when it tried to bid for contracts to help upgrade that nation’s emergency communications networks. (previous post) The problem in both cases is largely related to image, as many western politicians see Huawei as a spying arm of Beijing and are thus reluctant to let it build sensitive communications networks in their countries. The background of Huawei’s media-shy founder Ren Zhengfei hasn’t helped the situation and is even the source of many of the image problems, since Ren himself was a former engineer in the People’s Liberation Army before founding Huawei more than 2 decades ago. Huawei has made repeated attempts to distance itself from Beijing, with Ren himself pointing out in a recent speech that he was rejected for Communist Party membership many years ago. After the latest Australian setback late last month (previous post), Huawei even volunteered to reveal its source code if it could re-enter the bidding, in a move to ease the security concerns. (Chinese article) But from a public relations perspective, this latest defense of the company by China’s Commerce Ministry was probably the last thing that Huawei wanted or needed to make its case to the Australian government of its independence from Beijing. From a purely perceptional point of view, having a major government agency speak out on your behalf will hardly help to convince people of your independence from government support or control. As I said at the beginning of this post, perhaps Huawei can take some consolation in the fact that the Commerce Ministry spoke out on their behalf and not the Public Security Bureau itself, which is responsible for policing China’s telecommunications networks. But if Huawei really wants to convince the world of its independence from Beijing, its public relations department might want to make a low-key call to the Commerce Ministry and other government departments and politely ask them not to speak out too much on its behalf when its bids for global contracts fail. The Commerce Ministry remarks aside, I actually think Huawei has handled the Australia setback relatively well, remaining quiet despite the rejection, unlike its outspoken reaction when it was rejected for the US contracts last year. It needs to keep up this low-key approach, including good-will measures like revealing its source code to skeptical governments, and continue the effort without Beijing’s assistance if wants to eventually break into these lucrative but difficult markets.

Bottom line: Huawei needs to conduct its campaign to break into western markets by itself without government help if it wants to prove its independence from Beijing.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ICBC, Huawei: It’s Cold Out There 工商银行、华为：国外市场冷清

◙ Huawei, ZTE Suffer More Setbacks 华为、中兴料将在西方市场遭遇更多挫折

◙ Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

Lenovo Sister Firm Looks to Japan, Taobao Quits “围城”日本：弘毅想冲进去 淘宝想撤出来

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Japan’s foreign minister was in China yesterday on an official visit, so I thought I’d start the week with 2 items on Chinese companies in the notoriously difficult Japanese market, including an interesting move into the chip sector by a sister company of PC giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and a hasty retreat by e-commerce giant Alibaba. Let’s start with the more intriguing of the items, which is seeing Hony Capital, the high-profile technology investment arm of Lenovo parent Legend Group, pairing with US private equity giant TPG Capital to make a planned bid for bankrupt memory chipmaker Elpida (Tokyo: 6665), according to a Japanese media report. (English article) If they made a bid, the pair would join 2 other suitors, Korea’s Hynix Semiconductor (Seoul: 000660) and US-based Micron (NYSE: MU) in pursuing the Japanese company that controls 12 percent of the global DRAM market. Frankly speaking, Hynix and Micron look like much better suitors for Elpida, as both are competitors that could consolidate the Japanese company into their own operations for an industry that has been in desperate need of consolidation for the last 5 or 6 years. But the Hony-TPG pairing does include one interesting element, namely the Lenovo connection. Lenovo itself has been trying to break into Japan for years now, following its 2005 purchase of IBM’s PC assets that included sales and distribution networks in Japan. More recently Lenovo has taken over the PC assets of NEC (Tokyo: 6701), and has discussed setting up a manufacturing base in Japan. (previous post) A successful bid for Elpida could theoretically provide Lenovo with a strong DRAM supply for its Japan-based business. Still, I would be wary of such a purchase since Lenovo has little or no experience in running a DRAM operation, and it’s unclear what kind of savings it could achieve by combining its Japanese PC business with Elpida’s money-losing memory business. Moving on, the other Japanese news bit has seen Alibaba’s Taobao service officially shutter its Japanese shopping channel that was operating on a platform run by Yahoo Japan (Tokyo: 4689). (Chinese article) Alibaba made a relatively low-key move into Japan several years ago, seeking to take advantage of ties to one of its earliest investors, Japan’s Softbank (Japan: 9984), which is also the main investor in Yahoo Japan along with Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) itself. Clearly the market hasn’t proven as easy to penetrate as Alibaba had hoped, and the media report even says that sales on the Taobao Japan channel were below the company’s targets. This withdrawal doesn’t surprise me at all, as Chinese firms of all types have had a difficult time in the Japanese market, which has become famous for its impenetrability by foreign firms. The other big Chinese web firm trying to crack the market is search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which has spent millions of dollars over the last 3 years on a Japanese search portal with little results to show for that investment. This Taobao withdrawal from the market was completely predictable, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a similar retreat by Baidu within the next 12 months.

Bottom line: A bid by a Lenovo sister company for bankrupt Japanese chipmaker Elpida is likely to fail, while Baidu is likely to follow a recent Alibaba retreat from Japan in the next 12 months.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Japan Production 联想向日本转移制造业务为明智公关手段

◙ NEC China Cellphones: New Lenovo Tie-Up? NEC计划重回中国手机市场 或与联想联姻

◙ Baidu Dreams of Brazil 百度试水巴西

More Proview Empty Talk in iPad Dispute 唯冠寻求禁售新款iPad将是徒劳之举

By on

It’s been a week since I last wrote about Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and even longer since I wrote about its simmering trademark dispute with a failing Chinese electronics company, so I thought I would close out this Good Friday with some comments on the latest development in that story, which appears to be slowly turning in Apple’s favor. I should start off this post by repeating that I firmly support Apple in this dispute, not because I favor the big guy over the little guy, but rather because I think Apple is in the right and Beijing should send a clear signal that it won’t allow its legal system to become a playground for irresponsible companies to extort money. But let’s move beyond that and look at the latest news, which has the company, a nearly insolvent PC monitor maker named Proview (HKEx: 334), seeking to stop the import of Apple’s new iPad model to China pending resolution of the dispute over rights to the iPad name in China. (English article) Proview’s latest move comes just days after one of its creditors launched a failed bid to push the company into bankruptcy, with Chinese officials preferring to wait until the iPad trademark dispute is resolved. A Chinese court ruled in Proview’s favor in the case last year, after the company argued it had registered the trademark in China a decade ago, even though it stopped producing any products under the iPad name several years ago. Apple had purchased rights to the iPad name in a number of markets, including China, under a broader deal before the release of its popular line of tablet computers in 2010. But for reasons that have yet to be fully explained, at least not in the media, the trademark transfer was never officially consummated in China and thus Proview was still technically the holder of the iPad name for that market. Now, rather than admit it failed to complete its part of the iPad name sale, the financially struggling Proview is seeking to use its own failure to keep its word, Proview is attempting to earn some much-needed extra money by selling Apple a trademark that it technically already sold under the earlier deal. Apple, which has appealed the case to a higher court, won a victory in Shanghai earlier this year when a court in that city ruled that Proview couldn’t block the sale of iPads in Shanghai until the appeals court made its final ruling. (previous post) I suspect that any attempts to stop import of the new iPads by Proview under this latest move will also meet with similar failure, as Chinese customs officials probably don’t want to get involved in this dispute until they absolutely have to. Meantime, I also suspect that top leaders in Beijing may be getting involved in this case, following a meeting last week between Apple’s CEO Tim Cook and Chinese premier-in-waiting Li Keqiang (previous post), and I would say the chances for a final ruling in Apple’s favor are now better than 50 percent.

Bottom line: Proview’s latest move to block the new iPad from entering China is mostly talk, as the odds for victory in its trademark dispute with Apple sink below 50 percent.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple Wins iPad Round in Shanghai: New Justice? 苹果在iPad商标侵权案中扳回一局

◙ Apple Bytes: Labor, a State Visit and Baidu 库克中国行猜想：他在下一盘很大的棋

◙ iPads: An Endangered Species in China? 中国高级司法官员应介入iPad商标权纠纷