Alibaba Challnges Investors to Read Between the Lines As Big Slowdown Looms 阿里巴巴:财报说了些什麽?

Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) has just published its fourth-quarter and 2010 results, and this is a read-betwee-the-lnes announcement if ever there was one. (English article; Chinese article) The company, still reeling from a scandal that forced out its CEO and COO late last year, saw fourth-quarter revenue growth that slowed to 37 percent from 43 percent for the whole year, and I’m willing to bet that number will show an even sharper slowdown in this year’s first quarter when business from more than a thousand fraudulent suppliers is cut out. The flagship of Jack Ma’s Alibaba Group has tried to ease investor concerns by saying its revenues are getting more diversified. But if I were a shareholder in this company (which I’m not), I’d brace myself for more turbulent times ahead, especially when the company reports its first-quarter results in April or May.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s growth was already slowing even before its year-end scandal, and we can expect an even more dramatic slowdown when it posts Q1 results

阿里巴巴<1688.HK>也发布了第四季度财报和2010年年报。这些报告有必要仔细咂摸。

阿里巴巴仍在疲於应付导致CEO和COO下台的欺诈丑闻。2010年全年营收增速是43%,第四季度增速则降至37%,我敢打赌,今年第一季度的增速肯定进一步下降。马云试图安抚投资者情绪,表示阿里巴巴的盈利来源正在多元化,但假如我是这家公司的股东(实际上我不是),我会对四五月间公布的第一季度财报做好心理准备。

一句话:在丑闻爆发之前,阿里巴巴的增速就已经放缓了。2011第一季度增速继续明显下降,没什麽悬念。(完)

News Release Digest: March 18, 2011

U.S. listed Chinese companies issued the following releases on March 17. To view the full releases, go to www.prnewswire.com and enter the company’s name in the search box.

** LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) Reports Financial Results for Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2010

** China’s Top Entertainment Video Portal 56.com Gains Popularity among Advertisers (businesswire)

** ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) Announces 2010 Annual Results

** Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) Q4 2010 and FY 2010 Results Demonstrate Strong Financials and the Evolution toward a More Balanced Business Model

China Mobile Looks for Help in Handsets

China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941), the world’s biggest mobile carrier and increasingly one of the world’s most boring companies, is trying to bring some zip back to its bottom line by selling phones. The company has just reported another quarter of snooze-worthy numbers that saw its profit rise a scant 3.7 percent — repeating a refrain from the last two to three years. (English article) The company, which has been loathe to promote its second-rate 3G service, keeps trying to wow the market with talk of 4G and how everything will get better then. But since that’s so far off — at least 3 years by most estimates — now it’s turning to cell phones as well to try and jazz up its bottom line, with its buy out of Topssion, a customerizer and distributor of handsets, from its former partners that included ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. (English article) Topssion isn’t a company I’ve ever heard of, so don’t look for any results too quickly. But if China Mobile really puts its mind to this, especially given its huge clout in the handset market, this buy could still end up being a lucrative and much needed source of new income to boost its anemic bottom line.

Bottom line: China Mobile is in desperate need of more lucrative businesses to jump start its profit growth, and its purchase of a China-based handset company should help in that direction.

 

Take a Deep Breath: China IPO Flood Looms 中国概念股又一春?

Western markets may be tanking on worries about Japan’s ongoing nuclear crisis, but you’d never know it from the number of Chinese firms lining up to make new US IPOs. We’ve already reported here on upcoming offerings from the likes of net security firm Qihoo 360, video sharing site Xunlei, online group buying site Lashou and social networking site Ren Ren. Now Chinese media are reporting that a mobile security provider called Netqin and social networking firm Kaixin001 and another net company called 21ViaNet are all moving towards their own U.S. offerings. The sudden scramble is probably due in part to the end of the Western and Chinese year-end holidays, during which most activity grinds to a halt. So this would be the spring for offerings to begin anew, so to speak. I’d be surprised if more than half of these do make it to market this year. But even if just 5 or 6 of the big names do get there, look for investor fatigue to start to set in by autumn toward these China net firms.

Bottom line: The sudden surge in IPO activity by China tech start-ups could leave investors feeling tapped out, with later-to-market firms offering potential good buys.

近期日本核危机升级,令欧美市场阴跌不断;但是,再看看一股脑涌向美国欲上市的中国公司,真可谓冰火两重天。
我此前提到过网络安全公司“奇虎360”,视频网站迅雷,团购网站拉手网,以及社交网站人人,都计划到美国上市。
现在又有媒体报 道,手机安全软件公司网秦、社交网站开心网(kaixin001.com),以及网络公司世纪互联都在筹备美国IPO。
这阵“中国旋风”如此密集,原因之一可能是去年年底到今年年初,中美两国的一连串节假日耽误了一些公司的上市计划,
于是在2011年春天扎堆而来,成就了“中国网络股又一春。” 说实话,如果这些公司今年能有一半成功在美国IPO,我就会感到惊讶了。
即使有五六家比较大的能够成功上市,投资者们不到秋天就会对中国网络股疲态备现。
简而言之,一连串中国网络概念股会令投资者感到厌倦,那些没能抢得先机的公司,其股票倒可能物有所值。(完)

Qihoo IPO: Let the Buyer Beware

I previously wrote about Internet security company Qihoo 360’s pending IPO (previous post) as one to be wary of, and now that call looks worth repeating as the company moves one step closer to giving investors a taste of what it has to offer. Now it seems that Qihoo, led by the controversial Zhou Hongwei, has filed to list on the New York Stock Exchange in an offering to raise $200 million (English article; Chinese article) On paper, at least, the company looks worthy of consideration. It turned profitable last year, and saw its revenue grow nearly 80 percent from 2009. But it’s anyone’s guess what’s behind the growth, especially if underhanded schemes like Qihoo’s hijacking of Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) popular QQ browser last year are among Zhou’s bag of tricks. Given his reputation as a lighting rod for lawsuits, I’d still say investors — especially ones averse to litigation — would be better served leaving their money out of this one.

Bottom line: A history of contentious litigation make Qihoo 360 an investor hot potato as it takes its first steps towards a $200 million New York IPO.

Ping An, Beggars Cup in Hand, Looks Worrisome

At one point, Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), the country’s No. 2 insurer, was the talk of the  town, with ambitious plans to become a diversified financial services company similar to Citigroup (NYSE: C). Now it looks like that vision may be closer to the truth than many realized. With cup in hand, Ping An has gone to the market for cash and come back with $2.5 billion from a Hong Kong investor, who now becomes a 3.5 percent owner of the company. (English article) Investors didn’t like the sale at all, which came at a discount, and dumped Ping An shares big time after the announcement. Granted, Ping An now has a big bank under its belt and thus may feel compelled to follow China’s other big banks in raising more money to cushion its balance sheet against a potential downturn in the real estate market. Given Ping An’s location and domination in Guangdong and particularly the boomtown of Shenzhen across the Hong Kong border, I see rough times ahead for the company when the downturn comes, which could hit Shenzhen especially hard.

Bottom line: Ping An’s recent cash call is a worrisome sign, as it braces for rough times ahead due to its big exposure in the real estate market of southern boomtown Shenzhen

Xunlei Looks Even More Interesting in Baidu Tie-Up

So, who exactly is this company called Xunlei, which I wrote about a couple of weeks ago as it looked like it was moving toward an IPO later this year? (previous post) Now we hear that the video sharing site whose investors include both Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) AND its Chinese archrival Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is forming forming a tie-up with the latter for an unspecified consumer-oriented downloading service. (Chinese article) It sounds like Xunlei will make its videos somehow available through the Baidu’s dominant search portal, in what sounds like a potent  combination. With names like Baidu and Google behind it, Xunlei is starting to look like a very good prospect to take on some of the more established players in video sharing like money-losing Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou.  I’d previously mentioned that Google might try to take out Xunlei prior to an IPO, but with both Google and Baidu vying for influence that could be more problematic. Either way, Xunlei is certainly a company to watch going forward.

Bottom line: Xunlei is a strong-looking up-and-comer, backed by Baidu and Google, that could pose some strong challenges to other video sharing sites like Youku and Tudou.

News Release Digest: March 16, 2011

U.S. listed Chinese companies issued the following releases on March 16. To view the full releases, go to www.prnewswire.com and enter the company’s name in the search box.

** Longtop (NYSE: LFT) Agrees to Acquire FNDSoft, a Core Insurance Solution Provider in China

** ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) Announces Closing of Offering US$175 Million of Convertible Senior Notes

** Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD) to Collaborate with Hilton in Greater China

** LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) to Host Investor Day on April 11, 2011

** Goldwind (Shenzhen: 002202) Selects Broadwind to Supply Towers for Shady Oaks (Businesswire)

Hainan Airlines MGM Play: Soros Calling on Hollywood?

First it was the Japanese, and now it seems the Chinese are showing an interest in Hollywood. Given Japan’s failure in running two of Tinseltown’s top studios, it’s unclear to me why Hainan Airlines (Shanghai: 600221) of all companies is now interested in buying the perennially struggling MGM studios. But that’s exactly what the China Daily is reporting, following  an unsuccessful bid for the studio last year. Never mind that the airline has no experience running a studio. It’s decided to bring in a partner, Enlight Pictures, a Beijing movie studio no one has ever heard of, to handle that part of the equation. I suspect that Hainan Airlines backer George Soros may be at least in part behind this bizarre bid, perhaps seeing value where no one else does. If that’s the case, I would give this deal at least a dark horse chance at success. Stranger things have happened.

Bottom line: Hainan Airlines’ strange bid for problem-plagued MGM studios could stand a small chance of success, giving China a minute foothold in Hollywood

Linked In Braces for Lock Out, But Does It Really Matter?

Linked In, the social networking site for yuppies, is warning that it could potentially follow in the footsteps of its hipper younger Facebook brother and be blocked out of China by Beijing’s Great Firewall. (English article) The question to me is: Should anyone, including those considering buying into Linked In’s upcoming IPO, really care? The answer is a resounding “no”. Whereas Facebook’s lockout has allowed a bumper crop of social networking knock-offs to blossom in China, the same can’t be said for Linked In, which is still available but virtually unknown in this country. I’m sure there are plenty of guesses as to why, but the fact that the median age of a Chinese Internet user is somewhere in the teens is probably one of the main reasons. So those considering buying into Linked In should relax: this company’s future isn’t tied at all to China, nor is it likely to be anytime soon.

Bottom line: A China lock-out for Linked in would pose little or no threat to the company’s bottom line or near-term growth prospects