Another Blow For Beleaguered ZTE 中兴通讯:挫折连连

It seems the folks at ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) just can’t catch a break these days. After suffering setbacks in North America, where it failed to get a key contract from Sprint (previous post), and in India, where its country head recently resigned (previous post), ZTE is now being sued in Europe by industry heavyweight Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) for intellectual property theft. (English article; Chinese article) This move by Ericsson hits ZTE right where it really hurts, as Europe was one of its last major markets where it was still doing well. This latest lawsuit could make potential customers there hesitate before signing any new orders, dealing another blow to its business. I had already flagged 2011 as a year when ZTE could see its growth slow sharply, and this latest development further cements that view. If things keep going this way, we could actually see their overseas new orders shrink in 2011.

Bottom line: Ericsson’s new lawsuit marks the latest bad news for former telecoms superstar ZTE, further denting its already-weak prospects for 2011.

中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>真是走了霉运。它相继在北美和印度市场市场失利,未能赢得Sprint电信建 设4G网络的关键订单,而且印度分部总裁辞职,现在又欧洲遭到行业大佬爱立信<ERICb.ST>就知识产权问题起诉。爱立信这场官司打到了中兴的痛处–这是后者目前仅有的运营情况良好的市场之一。中兴的欧洲客户在签下任何新订单之前可要三思了。我此前说过,2011年可能是中兴业绩大幅放缓之年,到目前看恐怕是逐步应验。如果这种趋势继续下去,中兴的海外新业务甚至可能在今年发生萎缩。

一句话:爱立信发难给中兴通讯雪上加霜,令后者在2011年的前景越发堪忧。

360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱?

I had a hard time believing the news when I first read about it, but now apparently consumer Web site 360Buy Chairman Liu Qiangdong has gone on the record saying his company has just received a whopping $1.5 billion in third-round investment funding — easily the biggest such investment ever for a China start-up. (English report; Chinese report) Never mind that Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), supposedly the industry leader, only has a market cap of $500 million. In fact, one of the lead investors in the mega-placement, Diginal Sky Technologies, which also owns a stake in Facebook, put in $500 million alone, according to Liu, who adds that an IPO for his company is still a couple of years off. I honestly can’t say that I know much about this company, but if anyone thinks that highly of them to invest that kind of money they surely must be doing something right. Perhaps this could be the next Chinese Amazon (Nasdaq AMZN)?

Bottom line: If 360Buy’s CEO is telling the truth and the company recently got $1.5 billion in funding, this is definitely a company to watch.

读到这条新闻时,我简直难以相信自己的眼睛:京东商城CEO刘强东称,京东第三轮融资额达15亿美元,创中国互联网企业融资纪录。而被认为是网络零售行业领头羊的当当<DANG.N>市值不过区区5亿美元。据报道,刘强东称,京东此轮投资者之一俄罗斯DST集团即出资5亿美元。说实话,我对京东了解不深,但如果国际投资者真愿意如此大手笔投资于它 ,看来它必有过人之处。也许它能成为中国的亚马逊<AMZN.O>?

一句话:如果刘强东此言属实,京东真的融到15亿美元,那这家公司的确值得高度关注。

News Digest: April 2, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 2. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ 360buy CEO Liu Changdong confirms $1.5 billion in 3rd round fund-raising (Chinese article)

Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Expands PCs at Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) Stores Beginning April 3 (Businesswire)

◙ Bright Food May Raise $916 Million Selling Bonds in China, Listing Unit (English Article)

◙ ChinaOil, Chimbusco, ChemChina, Unipec, Sinochem, CNOOC, Bright Oil to Attend COTC (Businesswire)

Halter USX China Index Up 4.83% for First Quarter 2011 (Businesswire)

◙ Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) Purchases Snr Convertible Bonds and Shares From Ku6 Media (PRNewswire)

Japan Nuclear Woes Brighten Outlook for Solar Firms 日本核危机提振太阳能公司前景

So, who else out there was surprised to read the reports that Baidu’s Robin Li was seen dancing shirtless with two strange women at a Beijing nightclub? April fools! Sorry, I just had to get in at least one April fools reference today. But on a more serious note, there’s an interesting report in the China Securities News saying Japan’s ongoing nuclear woes are making China rethink its nuclear strategy, to the benefit of its thriving solar industry. (Chinese article) According to the report, China may double its already sizable solar power goal for the year 2015 to 10 gW, in a plan to be announced soon. The report only names its source as someone from the NDRC, but if it’s true it could mean a huge boon for industry leaders like Trina (NYSE: TSL), JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO), LDK (NYSE: LDK), ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) and Suntech (NYSE: STP). This kind of strategy makes total sense, allowing Chinese leaders to capitalize on the current nuclear hysteria at home to bolster one of the country’s most promising home-grown industriesl.

Bottom line: China’s reported plan to accelerate its solar power development will produce a nice windfall for its solar industry.

《中国证券报》报导称,日本当前核危机促使中国重新考量核战略,这将有利於光伏产业发展。报导称,中国2015年光伏装机目标可能上调一倍至1,000万千瓦,不久可望宣布此项计划。倘若成真,对天合光能<TSL.N>、晶澳太阳能<JASO.O>、江西赛维LDK太阳能<LDK.N>、ReneSola<SOL.N>与尚德电力<STP.N>将是重大利好。

一句话:中国增速开发太阳能会给有关公司带来顺风

Motorola Comes Xooming Into China 摩托罗拉平板电脑偏重中国市场

It looks like tarnished mobile products maker Motorola (NYSE: MOT) has more confidence in China than superstar rival Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), at least when it comes to tablet PCs. Motorola chose the somewhat strange location of Hainan Island to announce the upcoming launch of its new Xoom tablet PC before the end of June, not long after its global launch earlier this year. (Chinese report) That contrasts sharply with Apple, which left China off the international launch list it published earlier this month for its iPad 2. (previous post) This looks like a smart move by Motorola, though the company will have to work hard to overcome the market dominance of Apple’s original iPad, as well as competition from other products including Lenovo’s (HKEx: 992) new LePad (previous post) But considering the decent reviews this product is getting, combined with Motorola’s strong previous experience in China, Xoom may actually stand a chance of getting some decent sales in a market that is the company’s second largest behind only the US.

Bottom line: Motorola should gain significant share in China’s tablet PC market with the upcoming release of its state-of-the-art Xoom

摩托罗拉移动<MMI.N>似乎比苹果<AAPL.O>对中国市场更具信心,至少在平板电脑领域是如此。摩托罗拉别出心裁地选在中国海南,发布6月底前将推出的Xoom平板电脑。这与苹果的作法截然不同,苹果不久前在二十多个海外市场推出新版iPad,其中并不包括中国。摩托罗拉这种作法是明智的,但要撼动苹果iPad在中国市场的地位,并应对包括联想等其他同类产品的竞争,绝非易事。不过各方对Xoom评价正面,且摩托罗拉以往在中国市场创过佳绩,因此Xoom在中国市场应有不俗表现。对摩托罗拉来说,中国是仅次于美国的第二大市场。

一句话:摩托罗拉新早期在中国上市的Xoom平板电脑应该帮助他得到不少市场额

Acer Takes a Hit With Lanci Leaving 宏基痛失兰奇

I was quite surprised to read reports today that Acer (Taipei: 2353) CEO Gianfranco Lanci has resigned over differences with the company about strategic direction. (English report; Chinese report). His departure comes amid a recent downturn for Acer, which shot to stardom under the leadership of Lanci and Taiwanese Chairman J.T. Wang, who made a potent pair by focusing on mid to lower end, consumer PCs with a special attention to notebooks that now dominate the market. While Wang came from an engineering background, Lanci brought much of the marketing savvy that helped the company become Europe’s notebook leader 3 or 4 years ago, and i suspect he was also a key player in the company’s successful acquisition strategy. My big concern is that with Lanci gone, Acer will go back to being a very Taiwanese company focused on gaining market share at any costs, very likely to the company’s detriment.

Bottom line: Gianfranco Lanci’s sudden resignation as Acer CEO marks the beginning of a downward spiral for the company, similar to the downturn that almost killed it a decade ago.

宏基<2353.TW>执行长兰奇(Gianfranco Lanci)离职,令我意外的是,今日读到报导说兰奇辞职是由於在公司战略方向上的分歧。宏基以往在兰奇和董事长王振堂的带领下,专注于中低端个人电脑,尤其侧重於笔记本电脑。王振堂有工程专业背景,而兰奇则颇具营销智慧,带领宏基成为欧洲笔记本电脑市场领先者。我猜兰奇也为宏基成功的收购战略作出了重大贡献。而随着兰奇的离开,或许宏基会重新还原成一家典型的台湾公司,不计代价争夺市场份额,这不利於宏基发展。

一句话:兰奇的突然离职等于宏基新衰退时期的开头,类似于十年前的衰退时期。

News Digest: April 1, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 1. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) Finalizes Acquisition of 70% of Solar Power, Inc. for $33 Million (Businesswire)

◙ Youku (NYSE: YOKU) to Launch China’s Most Ambitious Web Serial (PRNewswire)

◙ Ping An (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318) Plans to Boost Bond Investments, Lift Stocks (Article)

◙ Walmart (NYSE: WMT) China Chief Executive Chan Says Seeking Land to Build More Stores (Article)

Netqin IPO Tangled in Top Line Tussle CCTV再度揭露网秦

It seems the detectives at CCTV  have been working hard these days. After uncovering illegal gambling at online game firm Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA)(see previous post), CCTV is now reporting a huge discrepancy in what IPO candidate Netqin previously reported for its 2008 sales and what it told US regulators in its IPO prospectus (Chinese article). And this is really a huge discrepancy, with CCTV saying the company, a mobile software maker, previously reported sales that year of 3.76 million yuan, while its prospectus says the annual figure was 26 million yuan. I’m sure they’ll find an explanation for all this, and Netqin’s underwriter will probably convince stock exchange officials that the current prospectus is correct. But this, combined with the fact that the company seems to be locked in a fight with China’s 3 major telcos (see previous posting) certainly can’t bode well for Netqin. Btw, before I sign off with my usual bottom line, I’d like to thank one of my students, Lina Guo (郭文鹃), for bringing it to my attention.

Bottom line: Netqin has too many issues to clarify before I would consider it a good IPO investment.

中国的媒体警察CCTV再度出击。在揭露盛大<SNDA.O>子公司涉嫌网络赌博後,央视又报 道了手机软件公司网秦此前披露的2008年销售业绩与其向美国监管机构提交的招股说明书数据不符,并且两者间差距巨大:网秦天下的工商年检资料显示其2008年的销售收入仅为376万元人民币,而向美方提交的招股书中声称有400万美元。也许网秦的IPO承销商能够说服美国监管机构,其招股说明书中的数字是真实的,但此次负面报导,加上中国三大电信公司对网秦的杯葛,网秦的日子肯定愈加难过。(感谢我的学生郭文娟提醒我关注相关报 道。)

一句话:网秦的包袱太重,我现在还看不出它的IPO有什麽投资价值。

Google Bracing for Another Clash with Beijing 谷歌:英雄气短

There’s an ominous article in today’s China Daily basically accusing Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) of failing to get the proper license to operate its popular mapping service in China. According to the report, any Internet company providing China-based mapping services had to register with the government earlier this week or risk breaking the law after July 1. There’s a lot more in the article for those who want to look, but to me this looks like China pushing Google one step closer to the exit door by putting up rules the US search giant doesn’t want to follow. None of this would probably even matter if it weren’t for the huge popularity of Google’s Android operating system for cellphones in China, which appeals to local consumers because it’s free and thus drives down the cost of handsets. If this mapping issue blows up into another major clash, which it might, then Android could easily be the next to get kicked out of China, dealing a huge blow to the OS and thus to Google.

Bottom line: Google’s days in China may be numbered, dealing a major blow to its Android OS.

今天的《中国日报》有一篇文章,指责谷歌在中国的地图服务并未获得有关部门批准。这篇报 道称,任何提供中国地图服务的互联网公司必须在本周四以前向中国政府注册,否则在7月1日以後就将属於非法经营。在我看来,这是中国政府通过设立谷歌不可能接受的监管条款,又把谷歌向大门外推了一步。其实,谷歌与中国政府交恶至此,本来也没有太多可在乎的了,唯独谷歌 的安卓(Android)移动操作系统在中国大受欢迎,令谷歌尚有些投鼠忌器。如果地图问题再度成为谷歌与中国政府一大冲突点,也会危及安卓在中国的市场 地位。

一句话:谷歌在中国日益难以立足,其安卓操作系统也将遭受打击。

Qihoo: A Strange Tiger, Indeed 奇虎:真的是头怪虎!

It seems like after all my warnings to avoid Qihoo’s (NYSE: QIHU) IPO, plenty of greedy investors just couldn’t stay away from this company, whose name means “strange tiger” in Chinese. The company raised less than initially reported in its new IPO, but more than made up for that as its share price more than double on its NYSE trading debut, bringing lots of quick bucks for anyone who got shares at the IPO price. (English article; Chinese article) To those hedge fund managers who followed by advice, my apologies and I owe you a drink. But for longer term investors, for whom my advice was really intended, my advice remains the same: This company is a lightning rod for lawsuits and negative publicity, and much of that is due to questionable business practices that will ultimately drag down the company and possibly put it out of business. (previous blog post) Once again I say: let the buyer beware.

Bottom line: Qihoo is not for longer term investors, but may become a hedge fund darling because of its frequent controversies

尽管我对奇虎<QIHU.N>的IPO冷语不断,但是看来仍旧有无数贪婪的投资人难以抵御这头”奇怪的老虎”的诱惑。奇虎终於如愿在纽交所上市,尽管筹资额小於最初预期,但上市当天股价几乎翻番,令首批投资者大赚一笔。那些当初听了我的话的对冲基金经理们,我对不住你们, 回头请你们喝酒。但是,对於长期投资者来说,其实,我的忠告本来也是说给你们的–我还是那句话:这个公司就是块招惹法律纠纷和负面新闻的磁铁,而且它 的多数争议也不都是空穴来风。最终,奇虎的出格商业行为必然毁了自己。买家们,还是要当心!

一句话:奇虎是长线投资的毒药,但也许它的重重争议对对冲基金来说反而是良药。

News Digest: March 31, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on March 31. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ CNOOC (NYSE: CEO; HKEx: 883) to Buy Tullow’s Interest in Areas 1, 2 and 3A in Uganda (PRNewsiwre)

◙ Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) Announces Official Closed Beta Testing for ZT Online 2 (PRNewswire)

◙ ICBC (HKEx: 1989; Shanghai: 601989) sees slowing credit expansion 28 pct profit rise (English article)

◙ China’s Ping An (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318) net profit up 23.9 percent (English article)

◙ Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) chief executive Ma sells 2 mln company shares at discount (English article)