The regulator’s estimate that China’s banks will need another huge cash infusion over the next 6 years to meet stricter capital requirements probably come as a big surprise to no one. But the amount — a whopping $131 billion — is probably raising a few eyebrows, especially after shareholders just gave the nation’s top banks well over $100 billion combined last year for the same reason. (English article) If I owned shares in any of these banks, which I don’t, the thought of investing more in them in the near future just to keep my stake from getting diluted certainly wouldn’t make me too happy. But then again, anyone who invests in Chinese banks is surely doing so at least partly because he or she knows that these banks are 100 percent guaranteed by the government and, as a foundation of the Chinese economy, are even more important than the Western banks that were later called “too big to fail.” I’d say to look for the banks to start begging again as soon as 2012, as that will give them at least one calendar year (i.e. 2011) when they didn’t need to ask shareholders for more money. And to those shareholders who complain when the future cash calls come, I can only say one thing: the “too big to fail” guarantee from Beijing comes with a big price tag.
Bottom line: Chinese banks look like a bad investment for the next few years, as a new round of cash calls looms.
监管机构估计，中国银行业未来六年将需筹集1,310亿美元的股权资本，来满足更加严格的资本充足规定。这一数额或许会让某些人惊讶不已，特别是中资银行去年刚以同样理由从股东们那里筹集了1,000多亿美元。如果我持有其中任何一家中资银行的股票(事实是我没有)，不远的将来我需要对它们进行更多投资，以使我的股票不被稀释，这种想法肯定不令人高兴。但话又说回来，任何投资中资银行的人肯定在这麽做，部分原因是他们知道这些银行是百分之百政府担保的，而且作为中国经济一个基石，中资银行比所谓“大而不能倒”的西方银行更为重要。我认为中资银行最快会在2012年开始寻求筹资，这将使他们至少有一年时间无需向股东要钱。对那些抱怨筹资的股东们，我只能说：中国政府对中资银行的担保是伴随巨大代价的。
一句话：未来几年，投资中资银行似乎不是个好主意，因新一轮筹资活动即将出现。
Related postings 有关文章:
◙ Banks: CCB Bets on Downturn, BOC Keeps Head in Sand 中行依旧高歌猛进，建行趋向保守
◙ Ping An, Beggars Cup in Hand, Looks Worrisome
◙ NPC: Same Old Same Old, China Mobile Hypes 4G, More Handouts for Bank of China
Group (Nasdaq: HTHT), and French giant Accor. (
Siemens Networks’ pending acquisition of Motorola’s networking business. Chinese regulators were hesitating to approve the deal, and many suspected the Huawei lawsuit was the main reason. This settlement could also give a boost to Huawei’s own aspirations to get into the US market, as it will look like a sign of goodwill from a Chinese company in a dispute with a struggling US counterpart.
Another race is shaping up to be first to market between two of China’s leading social networking sites, Kaixin Wang (
It’s difficult to say who is better positioned in this current race, since neither company is saying much. But odds are that the first to list will also be rewarded with a handsome premium from overseas investors keen to buy into its latest hot Internet playy.
verdicts meaningless as the technology is already outdated when the decision comes. Furthermore, damages are often tiny even when the courts decide for the plaintiffs. A source at ZTE tells me the company hasn’t ruled out suing Ericsson overseas as well. To all of that, my only comment is that ZTE needs to get a bit more sophisticated in its litigation strategy if it really wants to compete with the big boys on the global networking stage.
seems a fund raising of this proportion, far bigger than what most of the major banks did last year, has M&A written all over it, most likely overseas. It would make total sense, as China’s oil majors, PetroChina (NYSE: PTR; HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857), Sinopec (NYSE: SNP; HKEx: 386) and CNOOC (NYSE: CEO; HKEx: 883), have all been active on this front under orders from Beijing to secure energy to feed China’s buzzing economy. Just where we might see Shenhua do its first major overseas M&A remains to be determined, but I would expect a major deal in the next 12 months.
I have to say that the latest reports that Tencent (HKEx: 700) is mulling a bid for News Corp’s (Nasdaq: NWSA) faded social networking site Myspace left me a bit puzzled. (
found a spot building a trial network in Shenzhen, where hometown giant Huawei will also build a network. Other winners include ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), which got Guangzhou; Nokia Siemens Networks, which got Hangzhou; Datang, in Nanjing; and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALUA), in Shanghai. In my mind, the clear winner in all this is Nokia Siemens, as they now get not only one but two chances at building China Mobile’s commercial 4G network with their pending acquisition of Motorola’s networking business. Ericsson appears to have squeezed in through the back door to stay in the race, but looks to be a bit of a lame duck after being forced to share Shenzhen with archrival and local giant Huawei.
It seems group buying site Lashou has attracted not only the hearts and dollars of Chinese consumers, but also overseas investors. Just one year after its founding as China’s answer to Groupon, Lashou has received a whopping $111 million in new funding from three European investors, including London’s Miilestone Capital Partners (
