First Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) warned earlier this week that its Q1 earnings would miss its own guidance, and a day later Yingli (NYSE: YGE) issued a similar warning. (Trina announcement; Yingli announcement) So what’s going on here? It seems the problem lies in Italy, where a bit of regulatory indecision has finally been resolved, reducing the size of the country’s solar-installation incentives. It’s probably only a matter of days before other big solar producers reliant on Italy follow with similar announcements, or they may just wait until reporting time to give investors the bad news. The Italy effect will ripple through the market for at least the next few months, pressuring prices through the fourth quarter. Of course that’s good news for anyone building solar plants, but I expect that analysts are busy revising downward all their earnings forecasts for the big Chinese solar firms for the rest of the year. All this highlights how reliant this sector is on government incentives and underscores the pressure on Beijing to roll out more of its own incentives to make sure this vibrant field of domestic manufacturers stays healthy. (previous post)

Bottom line: China’s solar cell makers and their suppliers will take a revenue hit in the next two quarters, pressuring Beijing to announce new incentives to prop up the industry.

天合光能<TSL.N>本周早些时候发出警告称，其第一季盈利将达不到公司预期目标。一天之後，英利绿色能源<YGE.N>也发布了类似警告。那麽到底发生了什麽事呢？问题似乎出在意大利方面，因该国终於解决了监管方面的优柔寡断问题，减少了对本国太阳能设施安装的激励措施。大概在未来几天内，其他依赖意大利市场的大型太阳能企业也会相继发布类似警告。意大利效应至少会在未来数月干扰市场，对价格形成的压力也会绵延到第四季度。当然，这对那些建造太阳能电厂的人来说是个好消息，但我预计，分析师们正忙于下调对中国大型太阳能企业今年余下时间的盈利预测。所有这些都说明这个产业是多么依赖政府的支持和激励，也突显了中国政府面临的压力：即要推出更多国内刺激政策，以确保正在蓬勃发展的中国太阳能企业安然无恙。

一句话：在未来两个季度，中国太阳能电池制造商及其供应商的营收将受创，从而可能迫使中国政府出台新的激励措施，以支持该行业发展。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Boosts Solar Firms with Power Plan 中国太阳能产业荣景可待

◙ LDK Looking for Cash as Sales Dry Up 赛维LDK太阳能公司销量下滑 现金接近枯竭

◙ 3M Jumping on China Solar Bandwagon 3M进军中国太阳能产业

Nanshan Aluminum’s (Shanghai: 600219) new plan to open an aluminum extrusion plant in the US indicates China is taking a new approach to this difficult and politically sensitive market. The company has said it will invest $161 million to build a plant in the state of Indiana, in a bid to get around US protectionist measures targeting aluminum made in China. (English article) Many will recall that Angang Steel’s (HKEx: 347) plan to invest in a US steel mill seemed to fall apart last year when it ran into political resistance, even though the US plant it tried to invest in was struggling. This new plan from Nanshan – which certainly received approval at the highest levels in Beijing – would seem to be a new approach aimed at circumventing any politicians worried about a Chinese firm taking control of a US one in this sensitive area. The only problem is, I don’t see any way that Nanshan or any other Chinese company can succeed in this labor-intensive sector in the US, as their main advantage is the low costs they can get in China. Furthermore, union politics common at this kind of factory have been difficult for Chinese firms operating overseas to navigate in the past, and I see no reason that Nanshan – which has little or no overseas experience – will fare any better.

Bottom line: Nanshan Aluminum’s new approach to overseas investment is destined to fail, and won’t provide any new model for Chinese investments in the US.

南山铝业<600219.SS>在美国开设铝型材加工厂的新计划暗示，中国正对这个高难度且政治敏感的市场采取新办法。南山铝业表示，公司计划投资1.61亿美元，在美国印第安纳州修建一座高端铝型材加工厂，此举旨在避开美国对中国产铝制品的保护主义措施。很多人会想起，因遭遇政治阻力，鞍钢<0347.HK>投资一家美国钢铁厂的计划去年似乎不了了之。南山新计划似乎是为规避美国政客对中国企业在该敏感行业控制美国一家企业的反对，而且该计划肯定得到了北京最高层的批准。唯一的问题是，我看不到南山铝业或其他任何中国企业在美国从事这一劳动密集型产业会有任何成功之道，因它们的主要优势就是在中国能够实现的低成本。此外，此类工厂普遍存在的工会政治一直都让那些在海外运营的中国企业穷于应付，我看不到南山的境遇会比先行者们好到哪里去，毕竟南山本来就缺乏海外运营经验。

一句话：南山铝业的海外投资新策略注定将以失败告终，也不会为中国对美投资提供任何新模式。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Yanzhou Joins China Outbound Coal Train 兖州煤业加入中国海外煤炭并购大军

◙ Baosteel Takes Nice Baby Step Outside China 宝钢终於走出海外第一步

◙ Shenhua Rights Issue Smells of Overseas M&A 神华能源可能进行海外并购

At first blush, Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) recent purchase of 4.6 percent of popular TV and movie production house Huayi Bros (Shenzhen: 300027) for 450 million yuan, or about $70 million, looks like just another silly purchase by a company with way too much cash on its hands. (English article) But a second glance may be needed here. In fact, in the light of Tencent’s ongoing push to challenge Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou in online video (previous post), this deal actually makes quite a bit of sense and could even be a very savvy play by Tencent. As maker of some of China’s most popular films and TV shows, content from Huayi may be just the tonic that Tencent needs to drive Web surfers to its new online video offering. Equally important, the partnership could keep Huayi’s movies away from Youku, Tudou and other online video aspirants like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). Look for more deals like this in the months ahead, as Tencent continues its push into the space.

Bottom line: Tencent’s Huayi Bros investment will it help it secure popular content for its new online video service, and keep that content away from competitors.

腾讯<0700.HK>最近决定以4.5亿元人民币购买华谊兄弟<300027.SZ>的4.6%股权，乍一看，这似乎又是个钱多了没处花、犯傻的案例。但我们得再好好琢磨一下。事实上，考虑到腾讯在网络视频领域挑战优酷<YOKU.N>和土豆网的雄心，此次购买华谊兄弟股权还是有意义的，甚至可能算是非常明智。华谊兄弟制作出了不少深受观众欢迎的电影电视剧，其提供的内容应有助於腾讯网络视频服务吸引网民。同样重要的是，这种战略合作关系，可防止优酷、土豆、百度<BIDU.O>等竞争对手使用华谊的娱乐内容。未来数月可继续关注类似交易。

一句话：腾讯投资华谊兄弟，可使其网络视频服务获得热门内容资源，并且可以阻止竞争对手取得这些内容。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Youku: Mixed Results Make Management Confident 优酷业绩喜忧参半管理层仍雄心勃勃

◙ Tencent Takes Serious Shot at Video 腾讯重拳出击视频业务

◙ Tudou Smells Sweet as Video Sharing Purchase　　土豆网秀色可餐

I read with interest that car maker BYD (HKEx: 1211), whose stock soared after Warren Buffett invested the company, only to crash more recently as sales stagnated, has finally won approval for a major new listing in China’s Shenzhen A-share market. (English story) I thought about it for a few minutes, trying to think if yet another distraction for this company, even if it was intended to raise more money, was a good thing, a bad thing, or generally neutral. In the end I’ve decided it will probably be good, but not because it will raise more money for the company to pursue its new energy dreams, which still have me highly skeptical. (BYD’s latest EV announcement) Instead, I think this listing could be good for BYD because it will force the company to do more to improve its image and performance in its home China market, since buyers of the stock will be the same Chinese who buy BYD cars. One of BYD’s biggest problems right now is that it’s neglecting its core car business in pursuit of loftier things, mostly electric. But having millions of Chinese shareholders looking over its shoulder after this A-share sale could be just the tonic this company needs to force it to focus on the present as well as the future.

Bottom line: BYD’s A-share sale could finally make this starry-eyed company return to basics or risk major volatility from unhappy investors in its home market.

我对汽车制造商比亚迪<1211.HK>A股IPO申请终於获批的消息很感兴趣。比亚迪目前在香港上市，获巴菲特投资後股价曾大涨，但由於产品销售迟滞，其股价近期重挫。我想了想，比亚迪A股上市，究竟是好事呢，坏事呢，还是不好不坏？我最後推断应该是好事，倒不是因为比亚迪A股上市可以圈到更多钱，实现其新能源梦想，事实上我对其新能源之梦是持怀疑态度的。我的想法是，A股上市对比亚迪有好处，因为这样比亚迪势必要更努力地改善在中国市场的形象，毕竟其股票投资者将是与其汽车消费者同样的群体了。比亚迪目前最大的问题之一是，忽视核心的汽车业务，追求相对缥缈的东西。而在A股上市，有了数百万中国投资者监督，比亚迪在着眼未来的同时，还得重点关注眼前。

一句话：A股上市，可能使得比亚迪更脚踏实地，否则就会惹恼中国投资者

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ BYD’s EV Strategy: Bury Them With Figures

◙ China’s Green Auto Dream: A Road Paved with Problems 中国的绿色汽车之梦：前途荆棘密布

◙ It’s Good News, But More Is Needed To Jump-Start BYD 比亚迪：需要更多好消息

China has spent the last five years building up a powerhouse solar cell industry that now accounts for more than half the world’s production. But oddly enough, it has never launched any major programs to encourage solar energy production at home, with the result that its stable of giants including Suntech (NYSE: STP), Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) have to export nearly all their output. Now it looks like all that could soon change, in what should come as a big boost to all these companies, including Trina, which just yesterday had to lower its latest sales target due to unstable demand from Italy. (company announcement) Chinese media, citing the powerful state planner, the NDRC, are saying the country is preparing to introduce ambitious new plans for solar power installation, which would see the country aim to install 10 gigawatts of capacity by 2015 and 50 gigawatts by 2020 — a huge boost from less than 1 gigawatt now. (English article) All this makes perfect sense, as China has made green energy initiatives a central plank of its recently rolled-out 12th five-year plan, and it also wants to give these companies a more stable market in which to sell their wares. If this new plan turns out to be true, and the signs indicate it is, then there should be some bright times ahead for China’s strong solar cell sector.

Bottom line: China’s major new plan to boost its solar energy production should provide a new and more stable revenue source for the country’s major solar cell makers.

中国过去五年着力打造太阳能电池板产业，产量占全球逾一半，但奇怪的是，中国从未推出重大项目，鼓励国内太阳能生产，其结果就是：尚德电力<STP.N>、天合光能<TSL.N>及英利<YGE.N>等太阳能巨头的产品，几乎全部用於出口。不过情况可能很快发生变化，所有这些太阳能企业将获得提振，包括天合光能。而由於来自意大利的需求不稳定，天合光能昨日刚刚宣布下调营收目标。中国媒体援引中国国家发改委的话称，中国正探讨光伏产业规划，2015年光伏装机目标可望达到1,000万千瓦，2020年目标可望达5,000万千瓦，而眼下则不到100万千瓦。这些消息听起来相当靠谱，因中国近期出台的十二五规划，以发展绿色能源为重点，且中国希望为太阳能企业提供更稳定的市场环境。如果此项计划成真，中国太阳能电池板产业前景一片光明。

一句话：中国光伏产业新规划将为国内太阳能电池板企业提供新的、更稳定的收入来源。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ LDK Looking for Cash as Sales Dry Up 赛维LDK太阳能公司销量下滑 现金接近枯竭

◙ 3M Jumping on China Solar Bandwagon 3M进军中国太阳能产业

◙ Japan Nuclear Woes Brighten Outlook for Solar Firms 日本核危机提振太阳能公司前景

It looks like China’s wireless broadband space is about to get a whole lot hotter — literally. Just a month after China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) announced a campaign to have 1 million hot spots nationwide within three years (previous post), the China Daily is reporting rival China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHT) has announced a similar plan to better serve the nation’s growing legions of wireless Web surfers. I previously called the China Mobile plan misguided, and I think the same is almost true for China Telecom. I say “almost”, because with China Telecom the plan makes a little more sense. Whereas China Mobile has little or no experience in this space, China Telecom has become a broadband specialist over the last few years through its fixed-line broadband offering, so presumably has more know-how in the area, both in terms of infrastructure and also in the equally important field of marketing. I still believe that most wireless broadband subscribers would rather get their service through 3G that’s available everywhere instead of via wi-fi that’s only available in select hot spots. But if anyone has a chance at succeeding in a national wi-fi network, I would give China Telecom the better odds over China Mobile.

Bottom line: I’m giving a reserved thumbs-up to China Telecom’s new wi-fi broadband campaign, but still believe it may be chasing a dead-end technology.

中国无线宽带建设不断升温。中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>约一个月前宣布，计划三年内将全国范围内的WiFi热点数量增至100万个。而据《中国日报》报 道，中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>亦宣布类似计划，以满足消费者不断升温的无线上网需求。我以前说过中国移动的计划不明智，现在我对中国电信的看法也差不多。我之所以说“差不多”，没说“完全一样”，是因为对中国电信来说，其计划的合理性略高一些，因为与中国移动不同的是，中国电信有多年的固网宽带服务经验，因此无论从基础设施还是营销来说，都算内行一些。我还是认为，多数无线网民还是宁愿通过无所不在的3G网络上网，而不会青睐热点覆盖有限的WiFi。但假设说有谁能够成功建设全国性WiFi网络，我认为中国电信成功的概率胜过中国移动。

一句话：我对中国电信的WiFi热点建设计划，持审慎支持态度。不过我还是认为，这也许是一条死胡同。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Wi-Fi Play Misguided 中移动：百万WiFi热点？

◙ China Mobile Adds Alarm to Slow Growth Story　中国移动慢发展的故事上再加新警报

◙ 2011: Year of the Unicom 2011：联通的好运年

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on May 11. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) Announces Updates to Q1 Guidance (PRNewswire)

◙ China Ming Yang Wind Power (NYSE: MY) Reports Q1 Results (PRNewswire)

◙ China Lodging Group (Nasdaq: HTHT) Reports Q1 Financial Results (PRNewswire)

◙ First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), China Power Int’l (HKEx: 735) In Framework Agreement (Businesswire)

◙ WuXi PharmaTech (NYSE: WX) Announces Q1 Results (PRNewswire)

Talk about Expo hangover. Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN) has just released its Q1 results, and they don’t look all that pretty for China’s largest budget hotel operator. The company posted just 11 percent profit growth for the quarter, and even weaker 8 percent revenue growth. (company announcement) Outlook didn’t look much better for the current quarter, with revenue expected to rise just 12-15 percent. The only bright spot was their franchised and managed hotel business, which was up 50 percent in the first quarter and now accounts for about 10 percent of their overall revenue. I imagine the picture won’t get much better for the rest of the year, as the comparables from the height of the Shanghai Expo start to make life difficult in the third quarter. It does seem like the company’s prospects are likely to plateau for the moment, but I do like the growth in the franchised and managed business, which has much lower overhead than owning and operating your own hotels. As I’ve said before, I also like this company further down the road for its strong position in Shanghai after the city opens its Disneyland in three or four years’ time. (previous post)

Bottom line: Home Inns has hit a plateau in its strong growth, but could easily regain that momentum with its franchise-management business and from the new Shanghai Disneyland.

如家酒店<HMIN.O>刚刚发布的第一季财报欠佳，作为中国最大的经济型酒店运营商，如家第一季利润仅增11%，营收增幅仅为8%，并且第二季前景看起来也好不了多少，第二季营收料将增长12-15%。我估计今年余下的时间里，如家财报都难有明显改观，因第三季业绩的比较基期正是去年世博会客流高峰。看起来如家像是进入了快速发展後的平稳期，不过我看好其特许经营酒店业务，因为其管理成本远低於自营酒店。此外，像我以前说的那样，随着三四年後上海迪士尼开张，如家在上海的地位将进一步巩固。

一句话：如家酒店进入快速发展後的平稳期，但得益於特许经营酒店业务，以及未来上海迪士尼开张，如家轻易可重拾发展动能。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Motel 168 Not So Hot, 7 Days Finds New Guest 莫泰168不再炙手可热，7天连锁找到了新客户

◙ Disney Shanghai: A Great Hotel Play

◙ 7 Days vs Home Inns: A Tale of Two Hotel Chains?