Everyone is chattering about the the upcoming move to China by Intel’s (Nasdaq: INTC) Sean Maloney, considered a potential successor to CEO Paul Otellini, so I’ll give my own thoughts on the significance of this move. To summarize, Intel said that Maloney, who had been on medical leave after suffering a stroke 15 months ago, will return to work in the newly created position as chairman of China, an unprecedented move for this very US-centric company. (English article; Chinese article) First the more positive side, which is that this move is a clear affirmation by the world’s largest PC chip maker that China is without question the most important global market after the US for gadget innovation. It’s already the world’s second biggest PC market, and is increasingly a top designer and consumer of smartphones that will eventually take over the mobile communications market. So obviously it behooves Intel to have a major executive here. Now the less positive side, namely, that Intel, like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), is quite simply in danger of losing its relevance in the computing world as more and more people look to mobile computing on a new range of devices like smartphones and tablet PCs — areas in which Intel is just a tiny force unlike the PC area that it dominates. In short, I see this move by Intel as both a nod to the importance of China, but also slightly smelling of desperation as it looks to re-find its way back to relevance in the computing world of the 21st century. Accordingly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some major strategy shifts and big announcements coming from Intel China after Maloney assumes his new position.

Bottom line: Intel’s move of its potential next CEO to China is a gamble the company must take if it wants to have any chance of retaining its position as a global leader in computing chips.

人人都在讨论马宏升（Sean Maloney）出任英特尔<INTC.O>中国区首任董事长一事，因马宏升被认为有可能成为英特尔CEO欧德宁的接班人。在我看来，英特尔宣布马宏升在因中风病休15个月後复出，将出任英特尔新设立的中国区董事长一职，对於这样一家典型的“美国中心型”企业可谓前所未有的举动。首先说积极面，英特尔此举显然是在肯定中国在科技产品创新方面已是美国之後最重要的海外市场。中国已经是全球第二大个人电脑（PC）市场，而且日益迈向智能手机顶级设计国与消费国。所以英特尔在中国安排一位重要高管顺理成章。再谈一下不太积极的一面：随着越来越多的人转向智能手机、平板电脑等移动设备，英特尔与微软<MSFT.O>类似，在电脑世界正面临失势危险。在智能手机与平板电脑等领域，英特尔影响力甚微，远不具备它在传统PC领域的那种主导地位。简言之，我认为英特尔此举一方面肯定了中国市场的重要地位，但也有孤注一掷、力图在21世纪电脑世界重塑辉煌的嫌疑。同理，马宏升新官上任後若宣布重大战略调整等重要举措，我不会感到意外。

一句话：英特尔若想保住在电脑芯片领域的全球领先地位，将下任CEO潜在人选调往中国是它必须做出的一搏。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

◙ Micron Nods to China’s Gadget Clout 美光科技押宝中国电子器件市场

I try not to be too surprised when Chinese companies do strange things, but Shanda Interactive’s (Nasdaq: SNDA) determination to go forward with an IPO for its online literature unit, called Cloudary, is leaving more and more puzzled by the day. (English article; Chinese article) First let’s take a look at the facts around this relatively boring online business. Cloudary is currently losing money, posting a net loss of about $600,000 last year, which admittedly was much better than the $15 million loss for 2009. Revenue more than doubled over that period, but still was just a modest $21 million last year. Despite these less-than-impressive figures, Shanda still wants to raise up to a whopping $200 million from this deal, which sounds ridiculous unless it’s planning to sell off most of the company. Now let’s look at the bigger realities. The market for China IPOs has cooled considerably in the last few weeks, especially for second-tier deals like this one, as reflected by the recent flop for Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE) a much more interesting play that is one of China’s top online dating sites. (previous post) Considering Shanda’s failure at its only other spinoff, Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME), and its recent problems with its Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV) unit, this upcoming Cloudary IPO has flop written all over it.

Bottom line: Shanda’s planned IPO for its Cloudary online literature unit lacks excitement in general and is poorly times, making this offering a sure-fire flop.

中国公司做出种种奇特举动本来并不新鲜，但盛大互动娱乐<SNDA.O>执意要将旗下在线文学部门Cloudary上市的决定还是让人越来越困惑。首先，让我们看看这桩相当无聊的网上生意到底是什麽情况。目前Cloudary是亏损的，去年净亏损约60万美元，当然要比2009年的亏损 1,500万美元好很多。盛大2010年营收较一年前增加了一倍多，但也就是2,100万美元。尽管业绩平平，盛大仍想通过让该部门上市来筹集2亿美元之多。除非盛大打算把公司大部分都卖出去，否则这个筹资目标听起来确实很荒唐。现在让我们再看看大环境。过去几个星期，中国公司IPO市场大大降温，尤其是对於这类“二线公司”而言，世纪佳缘<DATE.O>最近的逆境便是明证，而世纪佳缘的业务听起来要比盛大文学有趣很多。考虑到另一家从盛大分拆出来的上市公司盛大游戏<GAME.O>吃到的败仗，以及盛大旗下酷6媒体<KUTV.O>近期发生的问题，即将上市的Cloudary可谓看不到一线光明。

一句话：盛大Cloudary本身乏善可陈且上市时机糟糕，肯定会遭遇滑铁卢。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanda Literature IPO: Watch the Bottom Line *盛大文学IPO: 利润在哪里？

◙ Shanda’s New Deal: Spinning Off Literature 盛大文学拟分拆上市

◙ No Marital Bliss for Jiayuan as IPO Fever Cools 互联网IPO热潮冷却 世纪佳缘美梦破灭

It looks like Yanzhou Coal’s (HKEx: 1171; Shanghai: 600188) cash pot is getting bigger by the day, even as it seeks out global assets to fire up China’s energy-hungry economy. Already flush with cash it was holding for its failed $4 billion bid for Australia’s Whitehaven Coal (English article), Yanzhou is now preparing to raise an additional $1 billion as it prepares to float at least a third of its Australian unit by year end, according to media reports. (English article) The float was actually a condition laid down by Australia for allowing Yanzhou’s purchase of Felix Resources in 2009, in what was then China’s biggest takeover of an Australian company. The fact that the spin-off plan is moving forward makes this look like an interesting model for Chinese companies like Yanzhou and rivals Shenhua (HKEx: 1088; Shanghai: 601088) and China Coal Energy (HKEx: 1898; Shanghai: 601898) when they go into Western markets wary of selling major natural resources to state-controlled Chinese firms. In effect, such a deal structure means locally-based investors get to retain a major share in such assets after they get sold, possibly easing concerns over too much foreign ownership. Considering the big cash reserves that Yanzhou and Shenhua now hold, look for some more interesting and creative M&A coal resource deals — possibly even in sensitive North American markets — as early as the end of this year.

Bottom line: Yanzhou’s planned IPO for its Australia assets, if successful, will serve as a model for similar M&A by Chinese energy firms in sensitive Western markets.

看样子兖州煤业<600188.SS> <1171.HK>实在不差钱，虽然它在四处寻找海外并购对象。据媒体报导，以40亿美元求购澳大利亚煤企Whitehaven Coal的计划落空後，兖州煤业现金本已十分充盈，如今又打算在年底前将其澳大利亚业务的至少三分之一推到股票市场，从而再募集10亿美元。其实此次上市计划是2009年兖州煤业收购Felix Resources时澳大利亚方面提出的条件，当时它创下中国公司收购澳大利亚企业的收购规模纪录。此次分拆上市计划能够推进，说明这可以成为兖州煤业、中国神华<1088.HK> <601088.SS>、中煤能源<1898.HK> <601898.SS>等中国煤企寻求收购西方国家资源性企业时可供参考的有趣模式。西方企业被中国公司收购後，此种上市模式让西方本地投资者能够保住所涉资产的一大部分，从而可能减轻当地对中国国有企业控制太多西方资产的担心。鉴於兖州煤业和中国神华当前的巨额现金储备，也许最早在今年年底，中国煤企就能敲定一些更有意思也更具创意的煤企并购案，甚至有可能发生在敏感的北美市场。

一句话：兖州煤业将其澳大利亚资产上市的计划如果成功，将为中国其他能源企业在西方市场的类似并购行为树立榜样。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Yanzhou Joins China Outbound Coal Train 兖州煤业加入中国海外煤炭并购大军

◙ Shenhua Rights Issue Smells of Overseas M&A 神华能源可能进行海外并购

◙ Nanshan’s US Aluminum Investment Set to Ring Hollow 南山铝业的美国投资计划注定会失败

Want to raise a few hundred million dollars? Then just become a group buying Web site in China. That’s the only conclusion I can reach, after reading reports that the latest China Groupon wannabe, called 55Tuan, has raised a neat $200 million in funding from a group including Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). (English article; Chinese article) That would come less than a month after rival group buying site Dianping raised $100 million from a group including Sequoia Capital (English article), which came just weeks after yet another rival called Lashou also pulled in $111 million from a group that included London’s Milestone Capital Partners (previous post) All this financial bulking up, which comes as the real Groupon itself has recently launched a service in China, looks a lot like the beginning of another race to market by these three big group buying sites, all seeking to win a hefty premium for whoever gets there first. As many of you will recall, Renren (NYSE: RENN), often called the Facebook of China, received a hefty premium when it became not only China’s, but also the world’s first major social networking site to go public earlier this month, beating out hometown rival Kaixin for the honor. This case with 55Tuan, Lashou and Dianping looks like a similar race, as any could easily beat out Groupon to become the world’s first major group buying site to list. The market has definitely cooled somewhat to China IPOs since Renren’s listing, but I’d still bet that whichever of the trio is first to market will get a nice premium for its efforts.

Bottom line: A recent spate of massive investment in 3 major Chinese group buying sites marks the beginning of a race to be first to market between Lashou, Dianping and 55Tuan.

想融个几亿美元？在中国做团购网站就可以了。这是读到窝窝团(55Tuan)获得高盛<GS.N>等机构2亿美元投资的报导後，我能得出的唯一结论。而不到一个月前，红杉资本等刚刚为大众点评团购网投资1亿美元，再往前数几周，中国团购群雄中另外一家网站拉手网则获得伦敦麦顿投资等机构共 1.11亿美元投资。在美国团购网站Groupon最近也在中国推出团购服务的情况下，这些庞大的融资数目看起来更像是三家团购网的上市赛跑，它们都希望首先上市而赢得巨大溢价。前段时间，中国两家社交网络–人人网<RENN.N>与开心网的上市赛跑中，人人网最终笑到最後，本月稍早成为中国、也成为全球首家上市的社交网站。窝窝团、拉手网与大众点评网看起来也走上了同样的赛道，三家网站任何一家应都可能轻易击败Groupon，成为全球第一家上市的大型团购网站。人人网上市後，市场对於中国企业IPO的反应已有所冷淡，但我仍然打赌三家网站中首先上市的一家会获得巨大溢价。

一句话：最近中国拉手、大众点评与窝窝团三家团购网站大举融资已经为上市赛跑拉开了序幕。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lashou Pulls in More Bucks in Race With Groupon 拉手网拉来更多资金与Groupon抗衡

◙ China Groupon Charging for IPO Gate

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

Telecoms equipment superstar Huawei Technologies appears to be on a major PR and spending blitz to shore up its flagging prospects in Western markets where some question its ties to Beijing. My sources tell me the company has hired a headhunter to find a new top PR manager, undoubtedly to craft a global strategy to convince the world it’s not a wolf in sheep’s clothing waiting to pounce on unsuspecting Western telcos. In a similar vein, Chinese media are reporting the company has just set up an advisory board specifically for the UK market (Chinese article), a move that sounds strikingly similar to its establishment of a board in Australia last month. (previous post) Clearly the establishment of these boards, which is being carefully leaked to the Chinese media, is designed to convince Western governments that Huawei is letting locally-based employees, many of them local citizens, take charge of sales in their markets without interference or direction from headquarters. It’s an interesting strategy that could well work given enough time and resources. Meantime, Chinese media are also reporting that Huawei is raising a massive $1.5 billion in funds. (English article) There’s no mention of what the fund-raising is for, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some major announcements in the months ahead of new Huawei plans to build production facilities in Europe and North America, similar to what it previously did in India, to convince local governments it’s purely a business and not an arm of Beijing.

Bottom line: Huawei is stepping up its ongoing PR blitz to convince the West it’s a business and not an agent of Beijing, an interesting strategy that could work given enough time and resources.

电信设备商领域超级巨星–华为技术[HWT.UL]似乎要展开一场耗资巨大的公关战，以改善公司在西方市场黯淡的发展前景，打消西方对於华为与中国政府关系的疑心。有消息人士告诉我，华为聘请猎头为其寻找新的公关最高主管，无疑是为了说服全球，华为并非是一头披着狼皮的羊，等着扑向毫无戒备的西方电信公司。出於同一目的，据中国媒体报导，华为刚刚成立一个专门面向英国市场的顾问组，与上月起在澳大利亚成立顾问组做法雷同。华为通过精心透露给媒体上述消息，是为了说服西方政府，华为是在当地员工（很多是当地人）负责当地的市场销售，总部不会插手或指导。这是一个很有意思的战略，如果给予充分的时间与资源，可能收效甚好。同时，中国媒体还报导，华为正通过基金大规模募资15亿美元，虽然没有提及基金用途，但是未来几个月如果华为宣布欧洲北美建造生产企业，我不会感到意外。之前华为在印度也有类似做法，目的就是说服当地政府，华为只做生意，不是中国政府的工具。

一句话：华为正在加码公关，说服西方国家他们只是一家企业，并非政府特工，给予足够的时间与资源，这个战略应能收得成效。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Growth-Addicted Huawei Looks to the Cloud 华为渴求增长上瘾 着眼云计算

◙ Huawei Looks for Growth in IT Services 华为在IT服务领域寻求增长机遇

◙ Huawei: Strength in Separation? 华为：大胆尝试“本土化管理”

Following unimpressive earnings by rival VanceInfo (NYSE: VIT) last week (previous post), IT outsourcing specialist HiSoft (Nasdaq: HSFT) has followed with equally unimpressive outlook for the rest of 2011, reiterating guidance given earlier in the year for a big slowdown in its sector. HiSoft managed to log a solid 45 percent top-line growth for the first quarter, but reiterated guidance for more modest growth of around 30 percent for the full year, indicating a big slowdown may be brewing. (Company announcement) The top line numbers from both HiSoft and VanceInfo look remarkably similar even though HiSoft is much more geographically diversified than VanceInfo, which seems to indicate that global IT spending may be slowing after the big burst of deferred demand during the heady early days of global stimulus packages. At the end of the day, 30 percent growth isn’t all that bad, though investors may have to rethink their expectations for these companies.  In terms of who is better positioned to ride out this slowdown, I would give a decided advantage to HiSoft if it can work through its margin issues brought on by rising costs. HiSoft seems to have a more diversified client base, getting just a fifth of its business from China, which will give it more protection as Beijing slams on the brakes to try and cool its overheating economy. Investors seem to be somewhat undecided, with HiSoft stock down 9 percent during regular Monday trading but then rebounding 17 percent in after hours.

Bottom line: A global slowdown in IT spending is taking a toll on outsourcing firms HiSoft and VanceInfo, with the former better positioned to ride out the downturn.

竞争对手文思信息(VanceInfo)<VIT.N>上周发布表现平平的财报後，IT外包企业海辉软件 (HiSoft)<HSFT.O>对今年余下时间的预期同样平淡无奇。海辉软件一季度净营收增加45%，表现较好，但公司再次强调全年30% 左右的增速预期，显示大减速或在酝酿中。文思与海辉的营收数字非常类似，尽管海辉的市场地域范畴更广泛。这似乎暗示，IT外包需求在早期全球刺激计划带动大爆发後，现在已开始开始逐步放缓。尽管投资者们或许要重新思考对公司的预期，但30%的增长速度当然也不算太差。如果说谁能更好地度过此次减速，我会把这一票投给海辉，当然它还需解决成本上升导致的利润率问题。海辉似乎拥有更加多元化的客户群，其中国业务贡献的收入仅占五分之一，鉴於中国政府对过热经济踩刹车，在中国市场的较低比例应该是一种保护。投资者们似乎还在犹豫，海辉股价周一在正常交易时段大跌9%，但在盘後交易又强力反弹17%。

一句话：全球IT行业开支减速对IT外包公司海辉与文思构成冲击，但海辉似乎更有能力顺利挺过难关。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ VanceInfo Underwhelms With Latest Results, Guidance 文思创新业绩平淡

◙  Hisoft: Positioned for Japanese Rebound 海辉软件：将受益於日本重建

◙ Mindray, HiSoft See Slowdown in 2011

Money-losing video sharing site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) took a big chance with a massive follow-on offering less than a half year after its original New York IPO. Based on the early reaction, investors seem to be buying into this story despite some signs of doubt. After making its initial $200 million IPO in December and seeing its shares more than double on their debut (English article), the company returned to the market late last week and raised another $530 million by offering shares at a 3 percent discount to the latest market price but still four times the original IPO price. (English article) The stock promptly fell nearly 4 percent to below the offer price as investors finally realized that this company may be just slightly overhyped. All things considered, this new capital raising was a really smart move by Youku and its investors, which took advantage of huge interest in their company by short-term investors to squeeze more money out of them so they could continue to gamble on its stock. If it uses the money to acquire a major rival like Tudou, which is reportedly up for sale (previous post), then so much the better. The only problem is, at some point — probably in the near future — people will grow tired of this stock and realize it’s way overvalued, leading to a sell-off as it sinks to more appropriate levels. When that happens, look for the sell-off to be fast and furious, as the same short-term investors who previously bet on this company to notch big gains become short sellers looking for equally big declines.

Bottom line: Youku was smart to take advantage of investor greed to raise a huge chunk of new cash, but that same greed will ultimately take a toll on its shares when long buyers turn to short sellers.

业绩亏损的优酷<YOKU.N>从不到半年前在纽约上市以来，凭借投资者对视频分享网站的热烈追捧而大捞了一笔。从市场此前的反应看来，虽然坊间存在一些质疑，但投资者对公司描绘的前景非常买账。优酷去年12月首次公开发行(IPO)，首日股价大涨近两倍，筹得2亿美元。上周末，优酷又凭借增发筹得5.3亿美元，虽然其增发价格比最新市场价提供3%折扣，但仍大约相当於最初发行价格的四倍。但当投资者终於发现可能有点高估这家公司後，股价随即比增发价跌去4%。综合考虑各项因素，优酷此次筹资是个相当聪明的举动，因为这一次的筹资，利用了短期投资者对优酷巨大的兴趣，从他们手中吸引到更多投资，牵制住他们，让他们在优酷股票上继续赌下去。如果优酷利用这笔资金并购了一个重量级的对手，譬如待价而沽的土豆网，那就更好了。唯一的问题是——也许在不远的将来–人们可能会这支股票感到厌倦，并发现高估了优酷，然後会在股价向合理价位下跌的进程中抛售。当优酷股价凶猛下跌时，那些早前押注优酷美好前景的短期投资者就会摇身变成做空者，期待从其汹涌跌幅中牟利。

一句话：优酷很聪明地利用投资者的贪婪心理筹到了一大笔钱，但当做多投资者变成做空，优酷也可能会搬起石头砸了自己的脚。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tencent Looks to the Stars to Power Video Dreams 腾讯借力华谊 进军网络视频领域

◙ Youku: Mixed Results Make Management Confident 优酷业绩喜忧参半管理层仍雄心勃勃

◙ Tudou Smells Sweet as Video Sharing Purchase　　土豆网秀色可餐

It’s not exactly news, but the latest 3G mobile statics for April do paint a compelling picture for why China’s mobile landscape is likely to change radically in the next two to three years. The latest data show that China Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762) officially cracked the 20 million barrier for 3G subscribers in April, with its addition of 1.8 million users, while dominant carrier China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941) added 2.4 million 3G users to reach 29.4 million. China Telecom only releases quarterly numbers, but its 3G base at the end of March stood at 16.4 million, as it added new users at a rate of about 1.3 million a month. I usually don’t like to overwhelm people with numbers, but these figures paint an interesting picture, with China Mobile now controlling 45 percent of the 3G market, to Unicom’s 30 percent and China Telecom’s 25 percent. This ratio is far different from the overall market, which is 70 percent controlled by China Mobile, and is more likely to represent the picture for the next 2-3 years as Unicom and China Telecom aggressively promote their superior 3G networks as China Mobile limps along with its inferior home-grown 3G technology and pressures the regulator to let it roll out a better 4G network sooner rather than later. Of course the regulator will ignore this pressure, as this kind of more balanced market share is exactly what it wants to create a more level playing field and give Chinese consumers a better choice for their mobile service.

Bottom line: China Telecom and Unicom will be strong bets for the next 2-3 years, picking up steady share on China Mobile as Beijing looks to create more balance in its mobile market.

虽然不是什麽新闻了，但最近出炉的3G统计数字的确可以说明，未来两三年中国的移动通信版图可能有巨大变化。数字显示，中国联通<0762.HK> <CHU.N>3G用户在4月正式突破2,000万大关，其中四月新增180万。而行业龙头中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>3G用户达到2,940万，其中四月新增240万用户。中国电信仅公布了季度数字，但3月底的数字显示其3G用户达到1,640万，相当於今年一季度每个月增加130万。我通常不喜欢用数字来吓唬人，但这些数字的确描述出了一幅有趣的图景–中国移动占有3G市场45%的份额，中国联通占30%，中国电信占25%。这个比例与总体市场的情况大不相同–中国移动占到总体市场份额的70%。但随着中国联通和中国电信积极推广其占优的3G网络，中国移动则继续受制於其落後的3G技术，这很可能代表了未来两三年的情况。中国移动可能向监管者施压，要求尽快推出4G网络，当然监管者将会无视这种压力，因为监管者所希望看到的正是这种更为平衡的市场格局，好让竞争更为公平，消费者也得以更好地选择他们想要的服务。

一句话：因监管者希望看到市场竞争格局更加平衡，未来两三年，中国电信和中国联通将逐步侵蚀中国移动的市场份额，未来2-3年将有不俗表现。

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◙ Unicom’s Q1 Results Mask Real Cause for Worry 中国联通：一季度财报掩盖真正忧患

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