After more than a year of sluggish promotion for its 3G network, China Mobile (NYSE: CHT; HKEx: 941) may finally be getting serious about selling its 3G service, after realizing its hoped-for leap to 4G won’t be coming for at least the next 2-3 years. Chinese media are reporting that China Mobile is getting ready to put out major orders in June for mid-range smartphones costing around 1,000 yuan, or $150, each for its TD-SCDMA 3G network. (Chinese article) The move comes as China Mobile, which controls around 70 percent of China’s mobile market, has lost steady share in the critical 3G space to rivals China Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762) and China Telecom (NYSE: CHA; HKEx: 728), which have aggressively promoted their systems using superior technology. China Mobile, which controls just 45 percent of the 3G market (previous post), was hoping to bypass 3G altogether by trialing and then rolling out a 4G network using better technology. But the telecoms regulator appears to be in no hurry to facilitate such a move, and has said several times recently that 4G licenses won’t be coming until 2013 at earliest, no doubt in part to give Unicom and China Telecom time to gain share to create a more balanced market. China Mobile seems to finally have accepted this reality with its upcoming aggressive 3G promotion, which could finally help it regain some of the momentum it’s lost to rivals over the last two years. If that happens, look for some aggressive moves in the months ahead and a potentially bloody price war that will help low-cost handset makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), but could hit the bottom lines of all three carriers.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s decision to more aggressively promote its 3G network will help it regain some momentum lost to rivals, but could also start a bloody price war.

一年多来，中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>在推广3G网络方面并不太积极，如今这家公司认识到还要等至少2-3年才能迎来4G时代，所以终於要认真对待3G业务了。据中国媒体报导，中移动准备6月启动TD-SCDMA 3G智能手机集中采购招标，推出价格在1000元左右的3G手机。目前中移动占据着中国整体手机市场70%的份额，但在关键的3G领域，其市场份额已逐渐被竞争对手中国联通<0762.HK> <CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK> <CHA.N>所侵蚀，後两者通过更加先进的技术积极推广自己的系统。中移动目前仅控制着3G市场45%的份额，它曾希望跳过3G，直接进军技术更先进的4G网络。但监管部门看似并不急於配合，近期还多次表示，4G运营牌照最早要到2013年才会放行，其中部分原因无疑是为了让中国联通和中国电信有更多时间迎头赶上，以创建一个更为平衡的4G市场。如今，中国移动似乎终於接受了这个现实，因它也开始大力推广3G了，这可能有助於让它夺回过去两年丢掉的部分市场份额。若果真如此，估计市场会在未来几个月出现更大动作，从而可能引发惨烈的价格战，让中兴通讯<000063.SZ> <0763.HK>等低成本手机制造商受益，同时让三大手机运营商的盈利状况均受打击。

一句话：中移动决定更积极地推广3G网络，将有助於其夺回一些市场份额，但有可能引发惨烈的价格战。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

◙ China Mobile Adds Alarm to Slow Growth Story　中国移动慢发展的故事上再加新警报

◙ China Mobile Pushes Ahead With 4G Trial, Challenges Regulator 中国移动急於进军4G

Bank of Communications (HKEx: 3328; Shanghai: 601328), China’s largest lender outside its top four massive state-owned giants, is saying it’s serious about investment banking, and is willing to fork out the big bucks needed to attract top talent to compete with the big boys outside China. (English article) At first glance this really doesn’t look like a very major deal, as much bigger banks like ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) have stated similar intentions and have much greater resources to chase their I-banking  dreams. But what’s interesting here is that Bocom is much more market-focused than the big 4 national state banks, which take their cues from Beijing, and thus is in prime position to craft its plans based on market conditions  rather than Beijing-inspired dreams of becoming an instant global player. By focusing its investment banking dollars on Hong Kong, where a big chunk of the I-bank business comes from Chinese companies, Bocom is choosing an area where it can combine its own China-based connections with those of internationally-connected locally-based I-bankers to create what could become a formidable challenge to the big multinational players. Of course, only time will tell if Bocom can execute on this plan. But given its market-orientation, China connections and willingness to spend big for talent in Hong Kong, this looks like a plan with a good chance of success and one that could eventually propel Bocom to other international markets.

Bottom line: Bocom’s global investment banking expansion looks smart, combining its China connections with willingness to do what it takes to attract top globally-connected talent in Hong Kong.

作为中国除四大国有银行之外的最大银行，交通银行<601328.SS> <3328.HK>称其正在认真考虑投行业务，并愿意花大价钱吸引顶尖投行人才，与海外大型投行竞争。乍看起来这可能不是什麽大新闻，因为规模大得多的银行——如工商银行<601398.SS> <1398.HK>——也曾表达过类似意向，且拥有更多的资源来实现投行梦。但值得注意的是，与四大国有银行相比，交通银行的市场化程度要高得多，因而更能根据市场状况而非政府意愿来制定策略。在交行投行业务的主战场香港，交行可以将其国内关系网与香港本地那些拥有国际背景的投行家的关系网整合起来，从而有可能给大型跨国投行带来巨大挑战。当然，只有时间能证明，交行能否落实好这个计划。但考虑到交行的市场化程度，其国内关系网，以及愿意花大价钱在香港招揽人才，交行确实有可能如愿以偿，从而最终推动它进军海外市场。

一句话：交通银行的全球投行业务扩张计划看起来相当明智，因它既有国内关系网优势，又愿意花大价钱在香港招贤纳士。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

◙ China Readies Market for More Bank Begging 中资银行准备再筹资

◙ Banks: CCB Bets on Downturn, BOC Keeps Head in Sand 中行依旧高歌猛进，建行趋向保守

China’s top automaker SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) is talking up its alternate energy vehicle strategy and, in a surprise to no one, is saying it has big plans to make electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles. (English article) I won’t go into too much detail here, but the highlights include plans to launch mass produced electric cars and a hybrid plug-in next year, and a mass produced fuel cell vehicle in 2015, all relying heavily on government subsidies to boost sales. I thought that people had given up on fuel-cell vehicles, but it looks like SAIC still thinks it can succeed in this area where no other major car maker has done so. But what caught my eye more than this ambitious plan is that SAIC says Shanghai is going to fully support its campaign, with plans to build out major charging infrastructure in the city. This kind of tie-up is intriguing, because local government support could greatly improve chances of success for these alternate energy vehicles. The only other car maker I know of that has similar local support is BYD (HKEx: 1211), whose hometown government in the boomtown of Shenzhen is already helping to build out infrastructure to support its electric car roadmap. This kind of government-automaker tie-up in a major market like Shenzhen or Shanghai is intriguing because governments can supply not only infrastructure but are also major vehicle buyers and are likely to lend support in this area as well. But all that said, these companies still have to prove they can build an effective, reliable product to really succeed in this space.

Bottom line: Support from their local governments will boost SAIC’s and BYD’s chances of success in their green car initiatives if they can build reliable products.

上海汽车<600104.SS>正在大谈其新能源车战略，而且毫不意外地表示计划大规模开发电动、混合动力和燃料电池车。我不想详述，但计划重点包括明年开始量产电动车和一款插电式混合动力车，2015年量产一款燃料电池车，其销售都将在很大程度上依赖政府补贴。我原以为人们已经放弃燃料电池车了，但看样子上汽依然觉得它可以在这个没有任何其他大型厂商有所作为的领域取得成功。更让我惊讶的是，上汽宣称，上海市政府将全力支持这个计划，打算在全城兴建配套充电设施。这种合作还是耐人寻味的，因为当地政府的支持可以大大提升此类新能源汽车的成功机率。我仅知的另一家获得类似支持的汽车制造商是比亚迪<1211.HK>，其本土城市深圳已在帮助修建配套基础设施，来支持比亚迪的电动车计划。这种大城市当局与汽车制造商的组合之所以耐人寻味，是因为政府不仅可以提供基础设施，而且还可能成为新能源车的大买家。但即便如此，这些公司仍需要证明自己可以生产出有效可靠的产品，才能在该领域获得真正的成功。

一句话：如果上汽和比亚迪能生产出可靠的产品，那麽当地政府的支持将大大提升它们在清洁能源汽车领域的成功机率。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ BYD’s EV Strategy: Bury Them With Figures 比亚迪电动车战略：用数字狂轰滥炸

◙ China’s Green Auto Dream: A Road Paved with Problems 中国的绿色汽车之梦：前途荆棘密布

◙ Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事

China’s latest monthly auto figures are out, and the slight decrease in April sales is the latest evidence that the boom times of 2009 and 2010 are in the rear view mirror. (English article) But much more worrisome is the decidedly downbeat forecast from the usually-peppy association that compiles the figures, which is now predicting auto sales for this year could actually drop 10 percent from record 2010 levels that saw China pass the US to become the world’s largest auto market. The group cited a number of reasons for the rapid cool-down, including an end to incentives that fueled last year’s huge gains, high fuel prices and moves by major cities like Beijing and Shanghai to restrict new car sales to ease urban congestion. Indeed, many of my friends who used to drive everywhere have done the unthinkable in recent weeks and are taking public transport, which has greatly improved in major cities these last few years. Such a major shift in sentiment from an industry that was previously expecting 10 percent growth this year underscores the fact that auto sales are no longer a priority for Beijing, which will hurt the likes of global powerhouses like General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG), not to mention homegrown players like SAIC (Shanghai: 600104), Geely (HKEx: 165) and BYD (HKEx: 1211), which have all posted big profit gains due to strong domestic sales. Beijing will of course continue its support for alternate energy vehicles, though that slice of the market will remain tiny for at least the next few years. In the meantime, look for a rough road ahead for China’s major auto makers in the next 1-2 years.

Bottom line: The triple whammy of high fuel prices, an end to government incentives and local restrictions on new car buying will cast a chill over China’s auto sales for the next 1-2 years.

中国最新的月度汽车销售数据出炉了，4月份汽车销量小幅下降，这也是2009年和2010年中国汽车繁荣局面已成过去式的最新证据。但更令人担心的是，汇编该数据的协会给出了非常悲观的预测，称今年实际的汽车销售数量可能会从2010年的创纪录水平下挫10%。中国2010年超越美国，成为世界上最大的汽车市场。该协会就这种快速冷却的情况给出了多个理由，包括政府刺激政策的终止、高昂的燃料价格以及北京、上海等城市为缓解城市交通拥堵而限制新车销售等举措。的确，我的很多朋友过去到哪里都要开车，最近几周却很不可思议地转乘公共交通。过去几年，中国主要城市的公共交通得到了极大改善。汽车业人气的巨大转变说明了一个事实，即汽车销售不再是中国政府优先发展的市场，这将伤及通用汽车<GM.N>和大众汽车<VOWG.DE>等汽车业巨头的利益，更不用提上海汽车(SAIC)<600104.SS>、吉利<0175.HK>和比亚迪<1211.HK>等本土汽车商。因国内市场销量强劲，上述国内汽车商都发布了丰厚的利润收益报告。中国政府当然会继续支持替代的能源型汽车，尽管未来几年，新能源汽车的市场比重依然很小。同时，中国主要汽车生产商在未来1-2年内还有一条艰难的路要走。

一句话：燃料价格的高企、政府刺激举措的终止、限制购买新车的举措将在未来1-2年为中国的汽车销售投下阴影。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ GM’s China Growth Story Stalls Out 通用汽车在华增长势头受挫

◙ China’s Green Auto Dream: A Road Paved with Problems 中国的绿色汽车之梦：前途荆棘密布

◙ Auto Show: Sinotruk, Great Wall Explore Slow, Fast Roads Out of China 车展：重汽、长城各显神通开辟海外市场

It seems only appropriate that as I write this next item, I’ve just finished eating breakfast at my favorite local bagel joint where the new menu informed me this morning that prices have just been hiked about 10 percent. The news I refer to is that China has finally “accepted” a round of price hikes by Unilever (London: ULVR) that touched off a firestorm when the consumer products giant first discussed them in March. (English article) As many of you may recall, that mention of possible hikes touched off a wave of panic buying at stores, leading Beijing to levy an unprecedented, albeit relatively small, $300,000 fine against Unilever. The official China Daily is now reporting that after much soul searching, the state planner, known as the NDRC, has determined that Unilever’s move was a “corporate decision”, presumably meaning it wasn’t motivated by greed aimed at squeezing more money out of helpless Chinese consumers. This certainly seems to be stating the obvious, as anyone living inside or outside China has plenty of tales of price hikes on everything from consumer products to food and gasoline. To their credit, Beijing leaders are allowing Unilever to hike its prices, meaning media will probably be less likely to harass other domestic and multinational firms when they do the same to make sure they can keep operating profitably. Despite its worries about inflation, Beijing is finally realizing that this round of inflation is a global phenomenon, and unless it wants to return to the old days of coupons and rationing, it will just have to let the market make its own decisions while the government uses monetary policy to try and steer things in the desired direction. Congratulations Beijing!

Bottom line: Beijing’s allowing of price hikes by Unilever is a reassuring sign to the market that China won’t resort to price controls to help rein in inflation.

我刚刚在我最喜欢的西饼店吃完早餐，西饼店新的菜单使我发现，今天早晨的价格上涨了约10%，这和我要写的这一则分析遥相呼应。我要说的新闻是，中国最终接受了联合利华<ULVR.L><UNc.AS>新一轮的涨价，该公司三月份就谈论过涨价一事，当时便引发了一场大风暴。很多人可能还记得，当时说可能会涨价的传言引发了一波恐慌性抢购，导致中国政府史无前例地，尽管也是象征性地对联合利华罚款30万美元。《中国日报》报导称，国家发改委经过深思熟虑裁定联合利华的举动系“企业决策”，言下之意就是，并非出於榨取中国消费者更多钱财的贪婪动机。事实就摆在那里，生活在中国境内外的人都清楚了解从消费品到汽油等很多物价在上涨。中国领导人允许联合利华涨价也意味着，当其他国内企业或跨国企业作出类似涨价举动时，媒体很可能不再会对其进行死缠烂打。尽管担心国内通胀局面，但中国政府最终意识到，这一轮通胀是全球现象，除非愿意回到过去的计划经济时代，否则中国只能让市场自行决定，而政府配合使用货币政策加以引导。恭喜中国政府！

一句话：中国政府允许联合利华涨价只是再次向市场保证，中国不会为抑制通胀而进行价格操控。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sinopec, PetroChina Fight Back With ‘Pity Me’ Earnings 中石化、中石油上演苦肉计

◙ Sorry, Sinopec. Beijing’s more concerned wtih inflation, social stability

As I expected, just a month after pulling its 60 percent stake in the operator of the Motel 168 chain from the market (previous post) due to low offers, Morgan Stanley has quietly put the stake back on the market and appears close to finding a buyer in previous bidder Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN), foreign media are reporting. (English article) Also not surprisingly, this time around Home Inns’ bid is expected to value Motel 168 at about $500 million, or about half the figure the Morgan Stanley was leaking to the media the last time around. So what’s happened here? Clearly Morgan Stanley was never going to get the valuation it was seeking, considering Home Inns, the industry leader, is only valued at $1.5 billion itself and other big players like China Lodging (Nasdaq: HTHT) and 7 Days (NYSE: SVN) are valued around $1 billion each. The other big development is that since last month, Home Inns and 7 Days have both reported weak quarterly earnings, showing the market is hurting in part due to softness in Shanghai following the end of the World Expo. (previous post) Clearly Morgan Stanley wants to get rid of this investment, which is playing to Home Inns’ advantage as it should get the stake at a significant discount to what Morgan Stanley was seeking. But all that doesn’t change the fact that the budget hotel market is suffering from a slowdown, which is likely to continue for at least the next year as Expo effects linger and Beijing maintains its tight monetary policy, keeping Chinese consumers at home.

Bottom line: Home Inns’ imminent purchase of a controlling stake of Motel 168 should give it a nice short-term lift, but recovery for the sluggish budget hotel sector is still a year away.

摩根士丹利一个月前计划出售所持上海莫泰168连锁酒店60%的股权，但因不满接盘者报价太低而作罢，而正如我之前预料的那样，大摩仅一个月後又悄然带着这一交易重返市场，且与如家<HMIN.O>的股权交易已接近达成。一点也不奇怪还有，如家对莫泰168的估值为5亿美元左右，仅仅是大摩上次透露给媒体的价格的一半。那麽这其中到底发生了什麽呢？很明显，大摩从未打算得到他们想要的价格，原因是，作为业界领头羊的如家，其自身估值也仅为15亿美元，而汉庭连锁酒店集团<HTHT.O>、7天连锁酒店<SVN.N>等其他主要经济型酒店其估值分别也只有10亿美元左右。另一个重大进展是，自上月以来，如家和7天连锁酒店的季度营收报告均很疲软，说明市场元气受损，部分由於世博会结束对上海市场带来的疲软。很明显，大摩希望甩掉这笔投资，而这笔投资正好能发挥如家的优势，如家便以非常大的折扣价得到了这部分股权。但所有这些都不能改变一个事实，即经济型连锁酒店市场正遭遇发展缓慢的局面，而这一态势很可能至少会绵延至明年，因世博会效应仍存，而中国政府会继续维持其紧缩的货币政策，消费者出行旅游会减少。

一句话：如家即将收购莫泰控股权一事应该会有短期提振效应，但经济型酒店业的复苏至少得等一年以後。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Home Inns: Expo Hangover 如家进入平稳期

◙ Motel 168 Not So Hot, 7 Days Finds New Guest 莫泰168不再炙手可热，7天连锁找到了新客户

◙ Disney Shanghai: A Great Hotel Play

The outlook is slowly fading for China’s solar cell manufacturing giants, as international markets turn down the volume of their incentives for installation of new solar energy. The latest of the big Chinese players to fall victim to the uncertainty is Suntech (NYSE: STP), which has lowered its 2011 revenue guidance, albeit slightly, to between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion, down from a previous $3.4 billion to $3.6 billion. (English article; results announcement) As many of you will recall, Suntech’s lowered forecast comes after Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE) warned they would miss their targets, with both companies citing clarifications regarding incentive policies in Italy’s solar market for the shortfall. (previous post) All of this just underscores the need for China to come out with its own domestic incentives for installation of solar power, effectively making these companies less reliant on exports to sell the millions of solar panels they produce. Several reports earlier this month suggested that China was planning to sharply raise its target for domestic solar energy plants in its new 5 year plan from a previous 5 gigawatts to 10 gigawatts. But a report I read just today from CCID, a government-linked research house, was still using the 5 gigawatt figure, suggesting the plan is far from final. Considering the volatility of the global solar market at present, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more downgrades from Suntech, Trina and others on their 2011 outlook, which may finally prod Beijing into coming out with definitive new aggressive goals for solar installation to help support the industry.

Bottom line: Look for more downward revisions in outlook from solar cell makers in the next two quarters, which should spur Beijing into giving more aggressive support for the industry.

对於中国太阳能电池生产巨头来说，前途已经开始黯淡，因为国际市场在减少对安装太阳能电池的补贴措施。中国同类厂商中最近的一个受害者是尚德电力<STP.N>，这家公司将2011年营收展望调至33亿-35亿美元，较之前的34亿-36亿美元有所减少。很多人可能还记得，天合光能<TSL.N>和英利<YGE.N>此前曾表示，可能没法达到预期，且将原因归咎於意大利太阳能市场的激励政策的变动。这一切都说明，中国需要为本土太阳能市场推出激励政策，好让这些生产了数百万个太阳能电池板的公司不那麽依赖出口。本月此前有多份报导称，中国在十二五规划中，计划将国内的光伏装机容量从500万千瓦提高到1,000万千瓦。但我今天从中国电子信息产业发展研究院的一份报告中发现，数字依然是500万千瓦，这说明上述计划还不远是最终决定。考虑到最近全球太阳能市场的动荡，尚德电力、天合光能和英利调低2011年营收展望并不会让我感到意外，而这可能最终会推动中国政府定下新的光伏发电目标，以扶植这个行业。

一句话：未来两个季度预计光伏生产商将继续调低展望，这将推动中国政府制定更多激励措施扶植光伏行业发展。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Italian Cloud Casts Shadow on Solar Sector, Pressures Beijing 意大利阴云笼罩中国太阳能产业

◙ China Boosts Solar Firms with Power Plan 中国太阳能产业荣景可待

After years of having to deal with the antics of Alibaba Group Chairman Jack Ma, who makes no secret of his distaste for his company’s controlling shareholder, Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), we’re finally seeing some movement that could result in the eventual divorce of this greatly mismatched pair. Their latest dispute, as many will know, involves Alipay, Alibaba’s online payments service that became a major source of contention after Ma secretly moved the company into a separate firm with no connections to its parent and then waited a while before telling Yahoo, which owns 40 percent of Alibaba, and Softbank, Alibaba’s second biggest shareholder. I’m not sure what Ma is trying to prove by doing something like this, as anyone who knows the first thing about good governance would agree you need to tell your biggest shareholders when you’re divesting a major asset like Alipay. But all that is history now, and Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz said this week that Yahoo, Softbank and Alibaba are in talks to resolve this matter. (English article) At the end of the day, I see Alibaba receiving a chunk of cash — up to $5 billion by some estimates — as compensation for Alipay, which it will no doubt immediately distribute as a special dividend to its shareholders, including Yahoo and Softbank. That will leave just Alibaba.com and Taobao as the group’s major assets, with market cap of about $8 billion for the former and perhaps another $4-$5 billion for Taobao. If Yahoo is as sick of Alibaba as I am, they’ll be smart and quickly negotiate a buyout for their stake after the Alipay dispute is settled, and let Jack Ma determine his own tumultuous future.

Bottom line: Yahoo’s talks in its latest blow-up with Alibaba could ultimately end up in a universal settlement that lets Yahoo wash its hands of this lucrative but problematic asset.

马云毫不掩饰对其最大股东雅虎<YHOO.O>的厌恶。见识了马云这几年的动作後，我们终於看到了可能导致阿里巴巴与雅虎分道扬镳的动作。很多人都知道，支付宝事件近来成为阿里巴巴与雅虎争执的焦点。马云将支付宝的所有权转移至一家与雅虎没有关系的公司，而等了一段时间後才知会持有阿里巴巴40%股权的雅虎和第二大股东软银(Softbank)。我不知道马云这麽做是想证明点什麽，因为大家都知道，好的公司治理意味着，要把像支付宝这麽大的资产剥离出去，需要告诉最大股东。但这已经发生了，雅虎首席执行官卡罗尔•巴茨本周表示，雅虎、Softbank和阿里巴巴在讨论此事的解决方案。最终我发现阿里巴巴收到了一大笔现金–有人估计高达50亿美元–作为对支付宝的补偿，而这笔钱肯定会立即被作为特别股息分配给股东，如雅虎和软银。这一解决方案会让Alibaba.com和淘宝成为阿里巴巴最大的资产，其中前者市值80亿美元，後者市值40-50亿美元。如果雅虎也像我这样讨厌阿里巴巴，那麽他们就应该在风波平息後，尽快与阿里巴巴谈出售股权的事，让马云自己决定未来的命运。

一句话：阿里巴巴与雅虎最近的争端可能导致双方分道扬镳，使得雅虎放弃这份虽然诱人但问题重重的资产。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹？

◙ Alibaba Challnges Investors to Read Between the Lines As Big Slowdown Looms 阿里巴巴：财报说了些什麽？

◙ Alibaba Resignations: Is the Magic Gone?