Watch out, Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT): you’ll soon be facing a major new rival in the mobile operating system space in the form of China Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762). The above may sound absolutely ridiculous, but the only thing more ridiculous is that it’s true. After announcing the roll-out of its Wo cellphone operating system earlier this year (previous post), Unicom is now going out and trying to set up an alliance of telcos, cellphone makers and anyone else who will listen to try to promote this system. (Chinese article) Why Unicom thinks it needs to take such initiative when there are already lots of superior products in the market, including Apple’s iPhone which Unicom is now selling, is a question that leaves me scratching my head. My only guess is that someone at Unicom is doing this to try to curry favor from Beijing, which is forever encouraging its companies to develop and promote proprietary technologies, even though such initiatives nearly always end up as very expensive failures. Perhaps Unicom feels it “owes” Beijing a debt for giving it the best technology when it awarded 3G licenses 2 years ago, while giving the worst technology to archcrival China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941). Whatever the case, this Wo initiative should be renamed “woe”, as it’s bound to bring plenty of woes to China Unicom if it really tries to seriously develop and market this system.

Bottom line: Unicom’s determination to move forward with its self-developed Wo mobile operating system is bound to be a costly failure.

小心了，谷歌<GOOG.O>、苹果< AAPL.O>、微软<MSFT.O>，你们在移动操作系统领域很快将面临一个新的竞争对手，中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>。这听起来好像很荒谬，但更荒谬的是，事实就是如此。今年早些时候推出“沃”手机操作系统後，联通又打算与电信运营商、手机生产商等合作，推广该操作系统。市场上已经有这麽多好产品啦，包括联通在销售的iPhone，联通为什麽还要这麽做呢？我百思不得其解。我唯一能想到的是，联通内部有人想通过这种方式取悦中国政府，中国政府总是鼓励中国企业发展、推广专利技术，虽然这种努力往往以失败且付出昂贵的代价而告终。也许联通觉得，两年前获得3G牌照後，政府把最好的技术给了自己，而把最差的技术给了对手中国移动<CHL.N><0941.HK>，因此自己“欠”政府的。无论是哪种情况，“沃”都应该改称为“祸”，因为如果中国联通真的开发并推广该系统，都会给自己惹来一堆头疼事。

一句话：联通想推广自行开发的“沃”手机操作系统，注定要失败，且代价不菲。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Wo! China Unicom OS Stumbles Onto the Wire

◙ 2011: Year of the Unicom 2011：联通的好运年

◙ Unicom’s Q1 Results Mask Real Cause for Worry 中国联通：一季度财报掩盖真正忧患

Lenovo (HKEx: 992) just can’t seem to get big Western markets out of its mind, even as it bills itself as a developing markets specialist. That’s the only conclusion I can reach after reading that Lenovo will buy Germany’s Medion AG (Frankfurt: MDN) in a deal valued at $670 million, its biggest overseas M&A since its purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) computer business in 2005. (English article; company announcement) To this day I’m still not sure why many people consider the IBM deal a success, as Lenovo has increasingly abandoned or scaled back its business in the developed markets that were IBM’s main PC territory in favor of more familiar developing markets like its own home China base. Perhaps “success” is a relative term, since the handful of other major high-tech M&A deals by Chinese firms to date have ended much more badly. Still, the reality is that Lenovo’s IBM purchase took most of the luster off IBM’s PC business, and now most in the US see it as a low-end “made in China” brand rather than the higher-end image that IBM had cultivated. I see no reason why the Medion brand won’t suffer a similar fate now under Lenovo ownership, and really don’t understand why Lenovo is pursuing this deal when it should really be focusing on developing markets in South and Southeast Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe.

Bottom line: Medion’s brand value will drop sharply after its purchase by Lenovo, causing a distraction for China’s leading PC maker when it should be focusing on developing markets.

联想<0992.HK>虽然自称是新兴市场专家，但心里还是放不下西方的广阔市场。当我得知联想将以6.7亿美元收购德国Medion AG<MDNG.DE>股份之後，这是我得出的唯一结论。这是联想2005年收购IBM<IBM.N>电脑业务後，其最大一宗海外并购案。直至今天，我仍不确定，为什麽很多人仍觉得IBM收购案是个成功案例，因为联想逐渐放弃或是缩小了其在IBM个人电脑主战场–成熟市场的业务，转而专注于新兴市场。也许“成功”是个相对的词，因为中国企业的大型高科技并购案很多最终都以失败告终。当然，现实情况是，联想并购IBM电脑业务之後，IBM个人电脑的高端形象尽失，现在大多数美国人把其看成是低端的“中国制造”。我觉得Medion被联想收购後，也会重蹈IBM的覆辙。我真不理解为什麽联想要并购这家企业，而不是专注于南亚、东南亚、拉美和东欧等新兴市场。

一句话：Medion被联想收购後，品牌价值将急剧缩水，这对於联想来说发展方向将受到干扰，因其本应该专注于新兴市场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo’s Game Console — Yet Another Plan 联想：新推游戏机，这次能行吗？

◙ Lenovo’s LePad: Finally a Game Plan That Could Work 联想乐Pad：终於拿出了像样的东西

◙ Lenovo: Nothing New in LePad 2

There’s interesting news coming from the struggling solar sector, where Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) has announced a tie-up with GCL Poly-Energy (HKEx: 3800), in what could become a future template for much needed industry consolidation. The deal, which the companies are billing as a major joint venture, will see the pair invest an initially modest $77 million to build a plant to supply polysilicon to Canadian Solar, in a relatively uneven arrangement that will see GCL provide 90 percent of the registered capital. (company announcement) But what’s more interesting here is that this tie-up could serve as an eventual vehicle for a de facto merger between these companies, which could gradually inject their other assets into the venture if the partnership works out. Up until now, most such tie-ups have been supply agreements without any equity participation. GCL would clearly  be the dominant partner in this arrangement, with a market cap of around $8 billion compared to Canadian Solar’s much smaller $400 million. But this kind of tie-up, if successful, could lead to more similar partnerships that would provide some much-needed consolidation for an industry that is now in the midst of a downturn and faces a potential looming cash crunch. (previous post) Such tie-ups could lead to the eventual creation of two or three true industry giants with stronger resources and economies of scale, allowing them to not only survive but even thrive with or without government subsidies.

Bottom line: Canadian Solar’s new JV with GCL could provide a template for much-needed industry consolidation, leading to the creation of 2 or 3 truly global players.

挣扎不已的太阳能行业近日传出一条颇有意思的新闻。阿斯特阳光电力<CSIQ.O>与保利协鑫<3800.HK>宣布建立一家合资公司，此举可能成为未来行业整合的样板。根据协议，两公司首期将投资大约7,700万美元建设工厂，以向阿斯特供应多晶硅，其中保利协鑫提供90%的注册资本。这里比较有意思的是，该合资企业可能成为两家企业合并的工具，如合作成功，两公司将逐步把其他资产注入该合资企业。迄今为止，多数此类联姻还局限於供应协议，没有股权参与。保利协鑫将成该协议的主导夥伴方。但此类联姻如果成功，将会引领更多类似合作，从而为低迷的太阳能行业带来一些迫切需要的行业整合，而且还可创造两三个真正的行业巨头，拥有更强的资源与规模效应，让他们不仅生存下来，而且，不管有没有政府补贴，还能繁荣发展。

一句话：阿斯特与保利协鑫新的合资企业可为太阳能领域迫切需要的行业整合提供样板，为业界创造出两三个真正的巨头。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Ming Yang Headwinds Spotlight Sector Woes

◙ Outlook Dims for Suntech 尚德电力：衰退的光伏行业最後的受害者

◙ LDK: Cash Crunch Looming? 赛维LDK即将囊中羞涩？

E-House (NYSE: EJ), one of China’s top homegrown real estate services providers and an industry bellwether, has just announced earnings that look decidedly downbeat, hinting at an even bigger sector downturn than many may have expected. (company announcement) The company trumpeted revenue that grew 17 percent in the first quarter, with a similar increase expected in the current quarter. But that figure is less than half the rise in expenses, which jumped 40-50 percent as the company underwent a major expansion. The result was that E-House slipped into the red for the quarter and forecast more anemic transaction volumes and weak market sentiment in the near term. The worrisome element in all of this is that the weak sentiment hasn’t really set into the broader market yet, with only active home sellers (and a few buyers who can obtain loans) really feeling the pinch of Beijing’s relentless moves to cool the market. Once the broader market sits up and takes notice that sales volumes won’t improve and new buyers are becoming a  rarity, I expect to see sentiment slide sharply, probably by the end of this year. When that happens, look for not only E-House, but peers like Soufun (NYSE: SFUN) to slip even further. The downturn could even drag down big-name developers like Vanke (Shenzhen: 000001), in a correction that could eventually see market values drop by as much as 30-40 percent from their current overinflated highs.

Bottom line: E-House’s rapid decline into the red and decidedly downbeat outlook are an early sign that China’s housing market may be in for a sharper decline than many expect.

中国顶级本土房地产服务提供商之一、行业领头羊易居中国<EJ.N>刚刚宣布黯淡业绩，暗示整个行业的下滑趋势或甚於先前预期。易居中国第一季度营收增长17%，本季度预计录得类似增幅。但该数字不及支出增幅的一半，易居中国支出跳涨40%-50%。目前该公司正大举扩张。结果是一季度利润亏损，这预示近期公司股票交易量更难活跃、市场情绪低落。所有这些中令人担忧的因素在於，低落的情绪尚未扩散至更广泛的市场，仅有积极售房者（及一些可以获得贷款的购房者）真正感受到了政府抑楼市的力度。一旦市场安静下来，意识到房屋销量难有改善，新的购房者少之又少，我预计市场情绪会大幅下滑，出现时间有可能在今年年底。一旦这样，除易居中国外，同行如搜房<SFUN.N>等可能也在劫难逃。而且行业巨头如万科<000002.SZ>等也可能面临修正，最终市值或从目前高位缩水大约30%-40%。

一句话：易居利润急剧亏损及其确定无疑的黯淡前景或是一种早期信号，预示中国房地产市场的可能陷入比料想更加严重的下滑趋势。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ E-House: A Bet Against China’s Housing Downturn

◙ E-House: Don’t Sell the House Just Yet 易居：不要马上卖掉这栋楼

◙ Real Estate: Soaring Growth to Stall on Market Pause

First it was LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), and now wind power company China Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) has become the latest victim of financial markets that are getting cold feet over the alternate energy story. Ming Yang has informed the world it’s shelving a secondary offering plan and even considering a share buyback due to its low stock price. (company announcement) In fact, Ming Yang is hardly alone in its inability to tap financial markets, which have grown decidedly cold on all alternate energy plays, be they wind or solar. Ming Yang and solar specialists have all seen their stocks drop one-third to as much as half from their 52-week highs in recent months, and all now trade at price-to-earnings ratios of anywhere from 8 for Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) to an outright alarming 5 for Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL). It’s one thing when a shaky company like LDK can’t raise money, but when healthier firms are also having trouble it may be time to start worrying a bit, especially as this sector is quite capital intensive and depends heavily on its ability to raise new cash. Cooling urgency around global incentives to install more alternate power, spotlighted by recent changes in Italian policy (previous post), is certainly one of the major forces cooling investor sentiment. If China is smart, it will start putting out more signals that it’s prepared to take aggressive steps to support this promising sector at home, which now supplies more than half the world’s solar cells. Otherwise, a major cash crunch could be looming.

Bottom line: Ming Yang’s secondary offering cancellation reflects an alternate energy sector sliding into crisis, and could foreshadow an industry cash crunch if the trend continues.

先是江西赛维太阳能<LDK.N>，现在又轮到风电公司中国明阳<MY.N>成为金融市场面对新能源题材股临阵退却的受害者。明阳宣布撤回第二轮增发，因股价太低，公司甚至考虑股票回购计划。实际上，明阳在这方面并非形单影只，金融市场对於所有新能源企业已变得非常冷淡，无论是风能还是太阳能。明阳以及太阳能企业股价最近几个月下挫近三分之一，至约为52周高位的一半，目前市盈率均非常低，如阿斯特的市盈率约为8倍，而天合光能<TSL.N>仅有5倍。企业孱弱如赛维者融资难尚可解释，但是健康企业也开始出现困难的话，就引人深思了，而且这个行业对资金需求非常大，还严重依赖筹集新资金的能力。全球新能源安装需求的迫切性有所降温，譬如意大利最近修订相关政策等，这显然是投资者情绪降温的主要推手之一。中国如果明智的话，就应该开始释放更多信号，显示其已准备以积极措施提供行业支持。否则严重的资金紧缺可能就要来临。

一句话：明阳取消第二轮增发计划反映出新能源行业滑向危机，如果该趋势继续，可能预示着整个行业资金紧缺期的到来。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Outlook Dims for Suntech 尚德电力：衰退的光伏行业最後的受害者

◙ China Boosts Solar Firms with Power Plan 中国太阳能产业荣景可待

◙ LDK Looking for Cash as Sales Dry Up 赛维LDK太阳能公司销量下滑 现金接近枯竭

It’s the first week of June in Taipei, and that means time for Computex, the annual show featuring the latest in computing gadgets and gizmos from the world’s top PC makers. The show is just kicking off today and will run all of this week, but one intriguing product already on display is Asustek’s (Taipei: 2357) newly unveiled Padfone, which it’s billing as a true convergence product that combines smartphone and tablet PC capabilities. (English article; Chinese article) I haven’t personally seen or had a chance to use this product, but based on the descriptions it sounds like a well designed offering that looks like a tablet PC with a smartphone that can pop out and be carried separately when the user doesn’t feel like carrying around a bulky tablet. Of course, with a product like this design will be key and only time will tell if consumers like it. I personally like Asustek for its willingness to take risks in new product development, which produced the wildly successful netbook at Computex several years ago. This new product is intriguing because it should appeal to the large number of consumers who want to simplify their lives by not having to carry around so many devices, adapters and so forth. Given Asustek’s record for innovation and the fact that I really think demand exists for this kind of product, I would say the Padfone could stand a strong chance for success, in which case we could see copycats piling into the market by the end of the year.

Bottom line: Asustek’s new Padfone looks like an interesting bet on convergence between tablet PCs and smartphones, and stands a good chance of success if people like its design.

台北国际电脑展（Computex）每年6月上旬举办，世界顶级个人电脑（PC）制造商都在此次展会上展出其新产品。今年的展会於今天开幕，为期一周，华硕<2357.TW>的新产品Padfone现在已经闪亮登场。这款产品整合了智能手机和平板电脑功能。我尚未亲眼见过或用过这款产品，但根据产品描述，它听起来像是一个嵌有智能手机的平板电脑，而当用户不想携带电脑时，可以取出智能手机单独携带。当然，对於这样的产品，设计是关键，只有时间能证明消费者是否喜欢。我个人十分欣赏华硕愿意承担新产品研发风险的做法。几年前，华硕在台北国际电脑展上推出的上网本就曾大获成功。Padfone这款新品很有意思，因为它将吸引许多希望简化生活、不想携带过多电子设备和适配器的消费者。鉴於华硕以往的创新记录，另外我确实认为市场存在对此类产品的需求，我敢说，Padfone取得成功的机率很大。如果是这样，预计年底前就会有大量仿效的同类产品蜂拥进入市场。

一句话：华硕新品Padfone似乎是整合平板电脑和智能手机的有趣尝试，而且如果消费者喜欢其设计，该产品成功机率很大。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo’s LePad: Finally a Game Plan That Could Work 联想乐Pad：终於拿出了像样的东西

◙ Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

◙ Motorola Comes Xooming Into China 摩托罗拉平板电脑偏重中国市场

Just two months after spinning off its popular Weibo microblogging service, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) appears to be getting quite aggressive in the social networking space with its launch of a new service that looks suspiciously similar to a Facebook or Renren (Nasdaq: RENN). Domestic media are calling the quietly launched new service, called Qing, a “light blogging” product that conveniently connects seamlessly with Weibo. (English article) But based on the description of this product that allows users to post photos, video and articles, this looks much more like a full-blown social networking site aimed at using the strong market position of Weibo, often called the Twitter of China, to quickly build up a more traditional SNS service to rival Renren and IPO candidate Kaixin. If this is the case, it looks like a brilliant move by Sina to beef up its social networking unit by combining a Twitter-like offering in Weibo with a Facebook-like one in this new Qing service. Of course, the end goal in all this is to create a company that can ultimately generate big profits and be spun off. Weibo has already shown its early moves in this direction, announcing its first acquisition a few weeks ago after being formally spun off from its parent. (previous post) It’s clear from this latest move that the evolution of Weibo into a strong player that can stand on its own has clearly just begun, and I’d look for even more innovative moves from this company in the next year.

Bottom line: Sina’s launch of a new SNS-like service, Qing, marks its latest move to build up a formidable player in the space with both Twitter- and Facebook-like capabilities in one company.

在将其微博业务剥离出去两个月後，新浪<SINA.O>在社交网络领域似乎又有非常积极的举动：它推出了一项与Facebook和人人网<RENN.N>非常相似的新服务“Qing”——一款可以实现与新浪微博无缝联结的轻博客产品。根据描述，这款产品允许用户上传照片、视频和文章，但看起来更像是一个完整意义的社交网站——旨在利用新浪微博的强大市场优势，快速建立起一个更为传统的社交网站，与人人网和开心网相抗衡。如果新浪果然要将类似Twitter的微博与类似Facebook的qing新服务结合起来，以增强其社交网络业务，那麽这可以说是非常聪明的一个举动。当然，其最终目标是创建一家高盈利性的公司并将其分拆出来。新浪微博已经在往这个方向前进了，比如几周前宣布了它的首个收购举措。显而易见的是，新浪微博进化成一个可以自给自足的市场强有力参与者的过程刚刚开始，我期待新浪在未来一年拿出更多有创意的举动。

一句话：新浪新推出qing轻博客服务意味着公司在实现社交网络雄心壮志道路上的最新一步，而且这家公司可以将Twitter和Facebook的功能兼于一身。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ New Weibo Makes First M&A Move 新浪微博并购忙

◙ Despite China Rebuff, Facebook Going Back for More Facebook明知山有虎，偏向虎山行

◙ Renren Debut: Let the Volatility Begin 人人网首秀纽约：从此“动”起来？

Chery Automobile, China’s only major car maker without a foreigner partner, is getting ready to tie the knot with Japan’s Subaru, in what looks like a smart marriage, while a separate newly announced plan for a new plant in Venezuela looks more questionable. First Subaru. After months of on-again-off-again talks, Chery and Subaru’s Japanese parent have reached an agreement in principle that would see them co-produce Subaru cars in northeastern China, foreign media are reporting. (English article) This deal looks like a really good fit for both sides, as it brings Subaru’s strength in the lower end quality auto space to Chery, which boasts not only strong manufacturing expertise and sales channels, but also a solid reputation in China’s affordable car end market. This tie-up should help Chery diversify to a slightly more upmarket segment, and I could even see an eventual equity swap similar to Ford’s (NYSE: F) previous ownership of a stake in Mazda that worked quite well. Now Venezuela. It seems Chery is getting ready to build a $200 million plant in the South American country, in a move that seems to totally lack commercial sense and smells much more of politics. Everyone knows that China is trying to cozy up to Venezuela, which has alienated most of the West that used to be the biggest customer for its plentiful oil. China Development Bank is even underwriting this latest Chery deal, further underscoring its political nature. For sure, Chery can afford to lose this $200 million investment, which isn’t huge. But wasting its time and effort on this kind of initiative can only be a distraction in the long run that this promising Chinese automaker doesn’t need.

Bottom line: Chery’s tie-up with Subaru looks like a smart marriage that could boost Chery at home and eventually abroad, while its Venezuela plan looks like a big mistake.

作为中国唯一一家尚没有外国合作夥伴的大型汽车制造商，奇瑞汽车现正打算与日本的斯巴鲁汽车联手，这似乎是一桩聪明的联姻。但奇瑞最近宣布在委内瑞拉建新厂的计划看起来却问题重重。先来谈谈与斯巴鲁的合作。据外国媒体报导，经过数月时断时续的谈判，奇瑞与斯巴鲁的日本母公司终於达成原则协议，双方将在中国东北部合资生产斯巴鲁汽车。这个协议看起来对双方都非常合适，因为斯巴鲁可将其在“较低端”优质汽车生产领域的优势带给奇瑞，而奇瑞不仅拥有强大的制造功底和销售渠道，还在中国中低端汽车市场享有不错的口碑。这个联合应可帮助奇瑞进入较为高端的市场，我甚至感到双方最终有可能会达成股权互换协议，就像以前福特和马自达之间相当成功的合作那样。现在谈谈在委内瑞拉建厂的事。奇瑞似打算投入2亿美元在这个南美国家建一座工厂，此举看起来完全缺乏商业头脑，更多是出於政治考虑。大家都知道，中国想与产油大国委内瑞拉搞好关系，後者与大部分西方国家的关系已经恶化。中国国家开发银行甚至在支持奇瑞委内瑞拉建厂一事，更加凸显出其中的政治意味。当然，即使这笔投资搞砸了，2亿美元的损失对奇瑞来说还是可以承受的。但长远来看，在这种事情上浪费时间和精力，对於这家前景光明的中国汽车制造商来说，实在是没有必要的分心之举。

一句话：奇瑞与斯巴鲁的联姻似是明智之举，有可能推动奇瑞在国内外均有所斩获，但其在委内瑞拉建厂的计划看来是个败笔。

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