China Tie-Up Pushes Wind Power in US 国电和富国银行的合作推动美国风电的发展

If a market doesn’t exist for your product, then go ahead and make one. That seems to be the hidden message in a new announcement from Guodian, one of China’s major power producers, which has signed an interesting agreement with Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), a leading US lender, to promote wind power development in the United States. (company announcement) Details in this announcement are thin, but the underlying message is clear: in the absence of local efforts to install more solar and wind power in North America and Europe, China is willing to step in and help to build new green energy plants in these markets to help and support its large stable of wind and solar equipment makers, who are now going through one of their industry’s worst-ever downturns. Of course, this kind of Beijing-backed effort to develop clean energy overseas is hardly selfless, and I have no doubt that the vast majority of orders for wind turbines and other equipment resulting from this Guodian-Wells Fargo tie-up will go to leading Chinese equipment makers like Xinjiiang Goldwind (HKEx: 2208) and Ming Yang Wind Power (NYSE: MY). You have to applaud the Chinese for their approach in this case, as attractive tariffs still exist in the West to make wind power a profitable endeavor. It’s just the degree of profitability that has prevented more building of wind and solar plants — something China will try to address by building the plants by itself using its power generating companies as its agents. If this tie-up works, look for more similar arrangements between Western banks and other organizations and Chinese power producers going forward, which will benefit both China’s wind and solar energy equipment makers.

Bottom line: The new tie-up between a major Chinese power producer and US lender Wells Fargo to build US wind power could be a template for China’s future promotion of green energy in the West

如果你的产品没有市场,那麽赶紧创造一个。这似乎是中国主要发电商——国电新声明中的潜藏含义。国电与美国富国银行(Wells Fargo)<WFC.N>签署了一份有趣的协议,旨在在美国推广风电开发。声明中的细节内容很少,但潜在信息却很明确:在北美和欧洲各国不愿安装更多太阳能和风力发电设备时,中国愿插手并帮助这些市场修建新的绿色能源发电厂,从而间接帮助并支持其风力和太阳能设备制造商度过该行业最严峻的衰退之一。当然,这种中国政府支持的开发海外清洁能源的努力绝非无私之举,无疑,国电和富国的合作会带来大量设备订单,其中绝大多数订单将落入新疆金风科技<2208. HK>、明阳风电<MY.N>等中国设备制造商手中。你不得不为中国人在此案中的手腕拍手称道,因西方国家依然存在很具诱惑力的优惠税率,使风电成为一个有利可图的行业。正是盈利程度才是阻碍修建更多风力和太阳能发电厂的原因。这也是中国试图解决的一个问题,中国采取的方式是让国内发电企业作为代理,自行修建发电厂。如果国电和富国的这种合作行之有效,那麽西方银行和其他机构与中国电力供应商之间的类似协议还会有更多,且中国的风力和太阳能设备生产商也会从中受益。

一句话:国电和富国在美国修建风电厂的新合作或许成为中国未来向西方推广绿色能源的一个模板。.

Related postings 相关文章:

China Comes to Rescue With Yingli Loan 英利获贷款承诺 政府终出手相助

Ming Yang Headwinds Spotlight Sector Woes 明阳挫折凸显行业之殇

Longyuan Looks to Breeze Overseas 龙源电力寻找海外风能市场机遇

News Digest: June 16, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on June 16. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China’s Tencent (HKEx: 700) Will Invest $1.5 Billion to Promote Application Developers (English article)

◙ BYD (HKEx: 1211) to Introduce All Electric Buses in Frankfurt (Businesswire)

◙ Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Guodian United Power In Renewable Energy Cooperation (Businesswire)

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) Mobile Browser Android Edition in Beta Testing (Chinese article)

◙ Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) Moves Global HQ to China for 1 Month Managerial Effort (Businesswire)

Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

Anyone who doubts that China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) is rapidly posing a serious challenge to dominant mobile carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) should look no further than the latest reports of a newly announced tie-up between Unicom and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA). (English article; Chinese article) The tie-up with Sina, China’s most popular Web portal, and Sina’s hugely popular Weibo microblogging service, is a huge endorsement for China’s number-two telco in the mobile 3G Internet space, where Unicom is fast stealing market share from China Mobile. Anyone living in China will have no problem understanding why Unicom is rising so fast. Mobile phone users constantly complain about the slowness and unreliability of China Mobile’s wireless Internet service, which is hamstrung by its government-mandated use of a problem-plagued homegrown 3G technology. Unicom, by comparison, operates a 3G mobile Internet system based on the world’s most popular standard, which is supported by plenty of well-proven handsets, including Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, and efficient infrastructure networking equipment. Sina’s new tie-up, though probably not exclusive, marks a huge affirmation that China’s top Internet content provider sees Unicom as the leading the mobile Internet in China for at least the next couple of years. If its guess is correct, and I think there’s a good chance it will be, we should see Unicom steadily take share from China Mobile in the 3G space, and perhaps even surpass it by the end of next year.

Bottom line: Sina’s new mobile Internet tie-up with China Unicom is a huge endorsement for Unicom, which could surpass China Mobile in the 3G space by the end of next year.

仍然怀疑中国联通<0762.HK> <CHU.N>对行业龙头中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>构成的挑战?看看联通与中国门户网站新浪<SINA.O>近日的联姻,疑虑就该打消了。联通与新浪在多个领域深度合作,包括时下热门的新浪微博衍生产品开发,这是对联通3G互联网业务的巨大支持。联通在3G领域迅速侵吞中国移动的市场份额。只要在中国生活,你就会明白为何联通崛起速度如此之快。手机用户不断抱怨中国移动无线网络服务太慢、太不可靠。中移动受政府分配的本土3G标准掣肘,3G市场开发走得相当艰辛。而中国联通所用3G技术为全球通用标准,受到很多知名手机厂商的支持,包括苹果公司<AAPL.O>的iPhone在内,而且联通还拥有非常有效的基础网络设备。虽然此次与新浪联姻未必排他,但它标志着新浪将联通视为至少未来几年本国移动互联网市场的领头企业。如果猜测无误——我认为猜准的机率非常大——我们应该看到联通在3G领域稳步抢占中国移动的市场份额,甚至有望在明年年底超越後者。

一句话:新浪近日联手中国联通是对後者的巨大肯定,联通明年年底前有望在3G领域超过中国移动。

Related postings 相关文章:

Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

Unicom Calls on BlackBerry – Finally! 联通推出黑莓业务 可望後来居上

Unicom Takes on Apple, Google, Microsoft … I Don’t Think So 联通想挑战苹果、谷歌、微软……?我不看好

Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

Playing defense is hardly the style for Alibaba Group founder and chairman Jack Ma, but he seems to be taking just such a posture in his ongoing dispute with partners Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) and Softbank over the company’s online payments unit. Ma, who rarely holds press conferences these days, took the unusual step of holding one such event this week in his hometown of Hangzhou to try  and explain why he secretly moved Alibaba’s fast-rising online payments service, Alipay, out of his group, China’s largest e-commerce company, and into another independent company without first consulting either Yahoo or Softbank. (English article; Chinese article) Playing defense is clearly not Ma’s style, which leads me to believe he realizes that he committed a major mistake — one which caused Yahoo’s shares to drop sharply when the news got out. Ma justified the move saying that China was preparing to issue its  first round of licenses for domestic online payment companies, and that Alipay might not qualify for a license due to its foreign ownership. According to the reports, Yahoo and Softbank both thought their stakes in Alibaba wouldn’t prevent Alipay from getting a license, and I’m increasingly convinced that this argument has merit. What Ma hasn’t said in all this is that China is preparing to also license foreign companies to provide domestic online payment services later this summer, so the whole debate over domestic versus foreign control of such companies does seem to be a moot point. In that light, Ma’s defensive posture seems much more understandable and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alipay return to Alibaba Group as soon as late this year. In the process, Alibaba may also have to pay Yahoo millions of dollars to help it settle a class-action shareholder lawsuit against it related to this mess.

Bottom line: Alibaba could end up reintegrating Alipay to resolve its dispute with Yahoo over the online payments unit, and could be liable for millions to help Yahoo settle a class-action lawsuit.

防守基本不是阿里巴巴创始人兼主席马云的风格,但近日在他与雅虎<YHOO.O>、软银围绕其在线支付部门的分歧中,马云恰恰是采取了防守姿态。如今已很少举行新闻发布会的马云本周在家乡杭州特地举行媒体沟通会,竭力解释他为何将阿里巴巴集团旗下支付宝的股权转移至另外一家公司,而且事先并未咨询合作夥伴雅虎与软银。玩防守显然不是马云的风格,这也让我觉得马云确实意识到自己犯了大错,因消息一出,雅虎股价急挫。马云解释称,中国政府正准备为国内在线支付企业发放首批牌照,而因外资控股问题,阿里巴巴可能无法获得牌照。根据报导,雅虎与软银均认为其在阿里巴巴的股权不会妨碍支付宝获得牌照,我个人越来越觉得这个说法有道理。马云没说的是,中国还准备在今夏晚些时候批准外国公司在华提供在线支付服务。这样说来,马云的防守姿态似乎更可以理解,而如果最快今年底支付宝就重返阿里巴巴集团,我不会感到惊讶。在这个过程中,阿里巴巴可能不得不支付雅虎数百万美元计的款项,帮助其处理相关的股东集体诉讼案。

一句话:阿里巴巴可能会停止重组支付宝,以解决与雅虎的争端,且可能还要拿出数百万美元计的资金,帮助雅虎处理股东集体诉讼。

Related postings 相关文章:

Alipay Spin-Off: End in Sight for Yahoo? 阿里巴巴与雅虎缘分已尽?

Alibaba’s Latest Yahoo Spat Masks Tepid Results 阿里巴巴与雅虎打口水仗是场烟幕弹?

Alibaba Challnges Investors to Read Between the Lines As Big Slowdown Looms 阿里巴巴:财报说了些什麽?

Huawei Hunting for Good Will in Canada Tie-Up 华为在美成立研发中心

You certainly have to give Huawei Technologies credit for taking a long-term approach to cracking the difficult but lucrative US market. After being rejected twice in previous US initiatives, one to buy former rival and joint venture partner 3Com and another to buy a small firm called 3Leaf (previous post), Huawei seems to be taking a softer, friendlier approach to try and convince wary US politicians it’s not just an arm of the Chinese government. In its latest move on the softer side, Huawei has just announced it is setting up a cloud computing R&D center in the Canadian capital with Carleton University and Canadian telecoms products maker Telus (Toronto: T). (company announcement) Investment in the center isn’t huge, at just $1.4 million, but it does look quite strategic, bringing Huawei together with a prominent Canadian university and a fairly large Canadian firm in the hot area of cloud computing. I’m sure Huawei, now the world’s second biggest seller of mobile telecoms equipment, thought long and hard about this move, and wouldn’t be surprised if expensive consultants played a major part in crafting the final announcement. Of course, a single initiative like this won’t suddenly win over conservative US politicians, but clearly this kind of move will soften Huawei’s image in the eyes of some and could thus make it less of an easy target for US China bashers. I’ve previously predicted that Huawei and/or crosstown rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) will score their first major North American deal in the 12 months, and with moves like this I still see such a deal occurring.

Bottom line: Huawei’s opening of a Canadian R&D center with a local university is its latest bid to forge a friendlier global image, and should help it win its first big North American deal in the next 12 months.

我们应当赞扬华为以长期策略打入艰难但诱人的美国市场的努力。华为此前在美国竞购前对手及合作夥伴3Com和小型公司3Leaf都以失败告终,现在似乎正采取更温和友好的方式,试图让警觉的美国政客相信,它并不仅仅是属於中国政府的一家企业。华为近期宣布,它将与卡尔顿学院和加拿大电信产品制造商研科(Telus)<T.TO>联手,在加拿大首都成立云计算研发中心。虽然对该中心的投资仅有140万美元,但这看来颇像一个战略之举,因它促使华为与加拿大一个知名学府与加拿大一家大公司在云计算这一热门领域展开合作。我相信,世界第二大移动通信设备制造商华为对此举进行了长期而艰巨的准备,而如果它聘用大牌咨询顾问参与了决策过程,我不会惊讶。当然,单单这样一个举措不会说服美国保守派政客,但此类举措显然会改善一些人心目中华为的形象,或能在一定程度上避免华为沦为美国反华派的攻击目标。我先前就预计,华为和/或中兴通讯<000063.SZ><0763.HK>一年内将在北美完成首项重大交易,最新进展似乎证明了我的预测。

一句话:华为与加拿大当地学府联手成立研发中心,是打造其全球友好形象的最新举措,应有助於华为未来一年内在北美完成首个大型交易。

Related postings 相关文章:

Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

Huawei Prowess on Display in Italy 华为意大利发威

Growth-Addicted Huawei Looks to the Cloud 华为渴求增长上瘾 着眼云计算

News Digest: June 15, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on June 15. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China Raises Reserve Ratio After Industrial Production Outpaces Estimates (English article)

◙ Huawei, TELUS, Carleton U Establish Innovative Enterprise Cloud Services Center (Businesswire)

◙ Jack Ma Addresses Alipay Asset Transfer Controversy (English article)

◙ Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) Accesses Rare Earths, More Upstream Supply Chain Integration (PRNewswire)

◙ China Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762), Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Sign Strategic Partnership (English article)

Google’s China Map Crisis Near Resolution 谷歌中国地图争端接近解决

There are two reports out today that indicate Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) ongoing dispute with Beijing over its China mapping service may be close to resolution. In the more significant of the two, Chinese media are saying that Google is in talks with a Chinese partner about setting up a joint venture that would officially own and operate its China mapping service, though no deal has been struck yet. (Chinese article) Those who have followed this issue know that last week related reports emerged saying China had ‘”clarified” that foreign companies wishing to provide mapping services in China needed to do so through a joint venture with a local partner, but that the foreign partner could retain control of the venture. (previous post) Those reports seemed to indicate that Google and Beijing, which had been at loggerheads over the issue, were on the road to settling their disagreement. In the second development that indicates a resolution may be near, research firm Analysys, which tracks online services in China, is saying Google led the China online mapping market in the first quarter with 46 percent share — triple that of its closest rival, AutoNavi (Nasdaq: AMAP) with 15 percent. (English article) This shows Google has clearly spent considerable time and resources to build up this business, and hasn’t abandoned it following its high profile withdrawal from the China search market last year due to disagreements with Beijing over censorship. If things keep moving in this direction, which seems likely, I’d look for a positive announcement from Google within the next month that it has reached agreement with Beijing that will keep it in the China mapping market. On a broader basis, such a development will also be welcomed by foreign Web firms that also occasionally find themselves at odds with heavy-handed Chinese regulators.

Bottom line: Look for a resolution between Google and Beijing in the next month that will allow Google to retain its leading position in China’s online mapping market.

今天有两篇报导称,谷歌<GOOG.O>与中国政府在谷歌在华地图服务方面的争端可能接近解决了。其中一条较重要的报导说,谷歌在与一家中国合作方讨论成立合资公司事宜,以让这家合资公司接手管理谷歌的中国地图服务,但相关协议尚未敲定。如果你一直关注此事,你会记得,上周有媒体报导称,中国政府已经表示,打算在中国提供地图服务的外资企业需要与中国企业成立合资公司,但外资合作方可以保持对合资公司的控制权。这些报导似乎说明,谷歌和中国政府之间的争端即将化解。另外,调研公司Analysys表示,在中国网络地图服务市场,谷歌今年一季度的市场份额达46%,其最大的竞争对手 AutoNavi<AMAP.O>只有15%。这说明,谷歌肯定花了不少时间和资源来推进该项业务,并未在去年高调撤出中国内地市场後放弃这项业务。如果事态继续朝着这个方向发展,我觉得谷歌下月可能会宣布,它与中国政府达成协议,将继续在中国市场提供地图服务。从更广泛的意义上来说,这也会受到那些与中国监管者出现磨擦的外国网络公司的欢迎。

一句话:期待下个月谷歌和中国政府达成协议,可以继续在中国提供地图服务。

Related postings 相关文章:

Google, China Seeking Map Compromise 谷歌与中国寻求妥协

Google Falling Off The China Map 谷歌地图:谈判也没用

Google Bracing for Another Clash with Beijing 谷歌:英雄气短

Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

In what should really come as a surprise to no one, newly released data is showing that new lending by Chinese banks tumbled 14 percent percent in May, even as economists were expecting a slight rise, as part of Beijing’s efforts to slow its racing economy and cool the overheated real estate sector. (English article) Regular readers of this blog will note that I previously said the slowdown could be stronger than many were expecting, after E-House (NYSE: EJ), a leading online real estate services firm, earlier this month reported decidedly downbeat Q1 earnings and forecast more gloom in the coming quarters. (previous post) People who follow China know that Beijing has raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements a number of times over the last six months in a bid to slow down lending. But the untold story here is the less apparent behind-the-scenes effect of Beijing’s market-cooling drive, which has seen banks — which take their orders from the central government — slow down many of their lending processes. Anecdotes on the ground abound about people with good credit unable to get loans for new homes or cars due to delaying by banks — a common Chinese government tactic when there’s no good reason for an outright refusal. The upside of all this is that such delays — which have no basis in real economics — can easily be reversed if Beijing starts to worry about too sharp a slowdown. But in the meantime, look for real estate and car sales to continue their rapid slowdown, with volumes and prices likely to decline in the healthy double-digits at least for the next few months. At the same time, look for stagnation or even declines in bank profits as well as their interest income slows.

Bottom line: Beijing is in no hurry to end a sharp drop in bank lending, meaning prices and sales volumes for big-ticket items like cars and homes will continue falling for the next few months.

在中国政府着力给经济和房地产市场降温之际,最新数据表明,5月份银行新贷款减少14%,这一数字也许并没有出乎任何人的预料,虽然曾有经济学家预计贷款会有小幅增加。经常阅读我的博客的读者会记得,我曾经说过,房地产业此番降温力度将超过很多人的预料。此前一家网络房地产服务商易居中国<EJ.N>本月稍早公布惨淡的一季度财报,并预测未来几个季度更不乐观。熟悉中国情况的读者会知道,中国政府在过去的半年里几次加息和提高银行存款准备金率,以收紧信贷。但这造成的一个後果是,连许多信用记录良好的人也没法及时拿到买房子或车子所需的贷款——包括银行暂时推迟放款。无论如何,房地产和汽车销售都将继续快速下滑,而随着利息收入减少,银行业利润也会停滞不前甚至下降。

一句话:中国政府并不急於结束目前的信贷大降局面,这意味着未来几个月,汽车和房屋的价格和销量都将继续下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

E-House Foundations Looking Outright Shaky 易居中国根基明显摇晃

Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业:当繁荣已成往事

ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

Xunlei’s Rich Parentage List Grows 迅雷投资方阵容强大

The pedigree for video-sharing site Xunlei, which last week filed for an IPO worth up to $200 million (previous post), just keeps getting richer and richer, in what seems suspiciously like a carefully coordinated campaign of strategic leaks to generate buzz around its upcoming listing. We already knew that this company counts Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) among its backers, which should be enough for people to believe this is a promising player. Now Chinese media are reporting that a fund owned by none other than Rupert Murdoch’s family was also a recent investor, putting in an undisclosed amount that valued Xunlei at $1 billion. (Chinese article) I have lots of respect for Murdoch, whose previous investments have included successful companies like NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) and Phoenix Satellite Television (HKEx: 2008). There’s no reason to think this investment will be any different, especially seeing as Xunlei was already earning money in 2009, posting a profit that year of $5.5 million — a sharp contrast to other video sharing sites like Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou, which are both still losing money. This selective leaking of information designed to create buzz is clearly in response to the recent cooling in market sentiment towards Chinese Web companies, that’s seen the likes of children’s site Taomee (Nasdaq: TAOM) and Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE) sink in their recent debuts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of these strategic positive leaks coming out in the next week, as the spinmasters behind Xunlei try their best for a positive debut despite the negative market sentiment.

Bottom line: Xunlei backers are hard at work hyping up the company’s IPO, banking on its strong pedigree and balance sheet to buck recently weakening sentiment towards new China IPOs.

上周递交IPO申请、拟筹2亿美元的视频分享网站迅雷的支持者名单正变得越来越强大,看起来是公司有意泄漏相关信息为其上市造势。我们知道,迅雷已经把谷歌<GOOG.O>和百度<BIDU.O>拉进阵营,这应该足以让大家相信,迅雷是一个有希望的企业。如今又有中国媒体报导称,默多克家族拥有的一个基金近期也成为迅雷的一个投资方,其投资对迅雷的估值达到10亿美元。我很尊敬默多克,他以前成功的投资案例包括网易<NTES.O> 和凤凰卫视<2008.HK> 。没有理由怀疑默多克家族的这次新投资,尤其是鉴於迅雷在2009年已经录得550万美元的盈利。相比之下,中国其他视频分享网站如优酷<YOKU.N>和土豆都仍在亏损。在看到淘米网<TAOM.N>和世纪佳缘<DATE.O>上市後的糟糕表现後,迅雷进行上述造势显然是想扭转市场对中国网络公司热情减退的势头。我估计未来一周迅雷还会“泄露”更多类似正面信息,为上市营造良好氛围。

一句话:迅雷的支持者正极力为公司造势,力争扭转市场近来对中国网络公司IPO热情下降的势头。

Related postings 相关文章:

Taomee Not Ready for Prime Time as IPO Tanks 淘米错过互联网IPO黄金时代

Xunlei Marches Down IPO Aisle 迅雷迈向IPO之路

No Marital Bliss for Jiayuan as IPO Fever Cools 互联网IPO热潮冷却 世纪佳缘美梦破灭

News Digest: June 14, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on June 14. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ IPO Candidate Xunlei Received Previous Funding From News Corp’s Murdoch Family (Chinese article)

◙ China Lending Unexpectedly Tumbles, Adding to Evidence Economy Is Slowing (English article)

◙ Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Maps Leads China’s Mobile Mapping Services in Q1 (English article)

◙ CIT (NYSE: CIT) Closes New RMB 1.8 Billion Vendor Finance China Funding Facility (Businesswire)

◙ LDK (NYSE: LDK), SPI Solar Preferred Suppliers in KDC Solar 3-Yr, 300 Megawatt Deal (PRNewswire)

China Makes Up Its Mind: Iron Ore 中国终於下决心:大幅增加国内铁矿石供应

China’s current dominance of rare earth production and solar panels are two reflections of Beijing’s determination to become a global leader in these sectors, which it has done through a series of generous subsidies and other government support. Next on its agenda, and an area that foreign companies would do well to watch, is the strategic and decidedly low-tech area of iron ore. Anyone who follows the steel sector knows that iron ore production is now dominated by foreign names like BHP (London: BHT), Vale (NYSE: VALE) and Rio Tinto (Sydney: RIO), which causes anguish with Beijing each year as its steelmakers negotiate new supply contracts that inevitably see the cost of iron ore climb. To end this cycle, Beijing has made up its mind to sharply boost iron ore production at home and become one of the world’s largest suppliers to feed its own steel-hungry construction and infrastructure sectors. Local media have reported that China intends to break the lock of foreign ore producers on the market by 2015, in part by boosting its domestic production to 1.5 billion tonnes per year — a nearly 50 percent increase from current output. At the same time, Beijing is pushing its domestic ore producers to more than double their overseas mining rights to 200 million tons by  2015. If it works, the big push will drop China’s dependence on foreign-supplied ore to 42 percent of its needs by 2015, from 63 percent last year, experts say. So, will it work? My answer is an unqualified “yes”, which will no doubt undermine the big global giants. In this case, China has plenty of domestic resources it can use to reach this goal, and it’s shown in the past that things like self-reliance in key areas like steel outweigh any economic issues like the high cost of achieving such self-reliance. Furthermore, it shouldn’t face any resistance from either foreign or its own provincial governments, as the former can hardly complain about this kind of domestic plan while the latter group will surely welcome such new investment in their provinces.

Bottom line: China’s plan to reduce its dependence on imported iron ore is almost 100 percent likely to succeed, undermining big international players like Rio Tinto, Vale and BHP.

Note: “China Makes Up Its Mind,” an occasional mini-column where I look at one of Beijing’s latest macro industrial policies, its chances for success and the potential impact on industry players.

中国目前在稀土生产与太阳能电池板领域的主导地位反应了北京方面的一大决心:成为相关领域的全球领头羊。中国业已提供了一系列慷慨补贴及其他政府扶持政策。它的下一个目标、也是外企特别关注的领域,那就是:战略意义重大、但科技含量不高的铁矿石。任何对钢铁行业有所了解的人都知道,现在的铁矿石生产由必和必拓<BHP.AX>、淡水河谷<VALE.N><VALE5.SA>与力拓<RIO.AX><RIO.L>等海外企业主导。每年中国钢铁企业谈判新的供应合同时,海外主导地位都让北京痛苦不已,铁矿石成本逐年攀升。为结束这种状况,北京下定决心大幅增加国内铁矿石生产,成全球头号供应国,以满足国内建筑与基础设施行业的迫切需求。据当地媒体报导,中国拟到2015年打破海外矿企的垄断地位,措施之一就是实现国产矿年产达15亿吨–比目前产量增加近50%。同时,北京方面还在推动国内矿商2015年前实现海外铁矿石的权益矿达2亿吨。专家分析称如果顺利达标,到2015年中国对外矿依存程度将从去年的63%降至42%。那麽,它到底行得通吗?我的答案是“YES”,这显然能够削弱国际矿业巨擘影响力。中国拥有丰富的国内资源来达到这一目标,而且过往案例证明对於钢铁等关键行业,自足问题胜过任何经济问题,比如说实现自足所需的成本等等。而且,海外与国内地方政府应该都不会带来任何阻力,因海外政府基本无法抱怨此类国内计划,而地方政府必然欢迎当地获此类新投资。

一句话:中国计划降低对外矿的依存程度,成功机率几乎100%,这将削弱力拓、淡水河谷与必和必拓等国际大企业的影响力。

备注:中国决心已定是我推出的迷你专栏栏目,主要探讨中国宏观产业政策动向、成功机率及对业界企业的潜在影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

Baosteel Takes Nice Baby Step Outside China 宝钢终於走出海外第一步

Nanshan’s US Aluminum Investment Set to Ring Hollow 南山铝业的美国投资计划注定会失败

China Makes Up Its Mind: Cable Consolidation 中国终於下决心:有线电视行业整合