It seems that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has become the latest booster of TD-LTE, publishing a paper saying China’s homegrown 4G telecoms standard could have as many as 2.7 billion users in Asia by 2013. (Chinese article) Of course this forecast is complete wishful thinking, considering there are currently no commercial users of TD-LTE right now even though Japan is building the region’s first such network and China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) is building a large trial TD-LTE network in 6 cities. This forecast clearly includes China on the list of nations that Goldman believes will be offering commercial TD-LTE services by 2013 — even though the Chinese industry regulator has indicated clearly on several occasions it has no plans to issue 4G licenses anytime soon but instead prefers to wait for the nation’s 3 major telcos to build up their 3G networks, which still only have around 70 million subscribers combined two years after their launch, compared with more than 800 million total mobile subscribers nationwide. China Mobile Chairman Wang Jianzhou, who looks set to retire (previous post), is also keeping up his pressure on the regulator by talking up Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) potential to develop an iPhone for use on TD-LTE networks in a recent interview (Chinese article), following a visit to his company’s headquarter a couple of weeks ago by Apple COO Tim Cook (previous post). I suspect that Goldman has some ulterior motives in putting out this kind of irresponsible forecast, most likely its hopes of getting more business from China Mobile and other companies building TD-LTE networks. Whatever the case, I stand by my previous prediction that any awarding of commercial 4G licenses in China is still several years away, and TD-LTE will be lucky if it even has 100 million commercial users globally by 2013.

Bottom line: Goldman Sachs’ forecast of up to 2.7 billion TD-LTE users in Asia by 2013 looks silly, and is probably motivated by ulterior motives.

高盛<GS.N>似乎成为了中国TD-LTE技术的最新支持者，高盛近期发布一份报告称，中国自主研发的4G电信标准–TD-LTE到2013年将覆盖亚洲多达27亿用户。当然，尽管日本正在打造亚洲首个TD-LTE网络，中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>正在中国六大城市建立大规模TD-LTE测试网，但目前TD-LTE尚未投入商用，这一预测完全是凭空想象。高盛这一预测明显已将中国列为到2013年时会提供TD-LTE商用服务的国家之一，但中国行业监管者在多个场合明确表示，近期没有计划发放4G网络牌照，更倾向中国三大电信运营商强化其3G网络；而中国推出3G网络两年後，用户仍只有7,000万左右，而全国手机用户总数超过8亿。 中国移动董事长王建宙也在继续向监管者施压，他在最近接受采访时表示，苹果公司<AAPL.O>有意开发一款可适用於中移动TD-LTE网络的iPhone。数周前，苹果公司首席运营官蒂姆•库克(Tim Cook)造访中移动总部也令人浮想联翩。我认为，高盛发布这种不负责任的预测或许另有企图，他们很可能希望从中移动或其他建设TD-LTE网络的企业那里获得更多业务。无论如何，我还是坚持自己之前的预测，即在中国，商用4G牌照的发放还需数年之後，如果TD-LTE网络到2013年时在全球拥有1亿商业用户，那它都相当走运了。

一句话：高盛预测亚洲TD-LTE网络用户到2013年达到27亿的说法似乎非常愚蠢，而且很可能是醉翁之意不在酒。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Pushes Ahead With 4G Trial, Challenges Regulator 中国移动急於进军4G

◙ 4G Trial Expansion Looms, But Real Networks Still Years Off

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

The development of proprietary mobile operating systems (OS) seems to have suddenly become flavor of the day for China’s new media companies, with industry leaders Alibaba Group and Tencent (HKEx: 700) both reportedly working on their new product offerings to tap a future mobile Internet market expected to eventually overtake traditional desk-bound Web surfing. (English article) Regular readers of this blog will recall that Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is also reportedly developing its own mobile OS (previous post), and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) launched its own such product, called Wo, earlier this year (previous post). All these initiatives vary in what they are doing, with most appearing to build new systems off existing platforms like Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) industry-leading Android. But one thing these initiatives all have in common is that they’re launching into an incredibly competitive market already dominated by Google, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), and the chances for success for any are just about zero. After all, if you’re a mobile handset maker, do you load your smartphones with Android or the Windows mobile system, which both have strong support and track records from their developers, or do you choose to work with Baidu or Unicom? The answer should be obvious, and these major Chinese Web firms — which have way too much cash to spend on silly initiatives like this — would be better served to spend their money elsewhere.

Bottom line: New mobile OS initiatives by Alibaba and Tencent are destined to fail in the face of stiff global competition, following in the footsteps of similar initiatives by Baidu and Unicom.

开发专属的移动操作系统似乎在一夜之间受到了中国新媒体企业的青睐。有报导称，业界领头羊阿里巴巴和腾讯<0700.HK>正致力於开发其最新手机操作系统，以挖掘未来的移动互联网市场，该市场料将逐步超越传统的固定上网模式。经常看我博客的读者或许还记得，有报导称百度<BIDU.O>也在开发一款专属的移动操作系统，而中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>在今年早些时候已经推出其名为“沃”的移动操作系统。所有这些想法彼此都各不相同，多数似乎都想创造一种脱离像谷歌<GOOG.O>安卓系统等现有平台的新系统，但共同之处却是，他们正在向一个已然被谷歌、苹果<AAPL.O>、诺基亚<NOK1V. HE>、微软<MSFT.O>所主导的竞争异常激烈的市场发起了挑战，对任何企业而言，这种成功的机率基本为零。毕竟，如果你是移动手机制造商，你是为你的智能手机搭载认可度很高的安卓系统、Windows系统，还是选择与百度或联通合作？答案显而易见，所以我奉劝中国这些主要的互联网企业应该把他们大把的钱用在刀刃上。

一句话：面对激烈的全球竞争，阿里巴巴和腾讯开发新的移动操作系统的举动注定不会成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ . Unicom Takes on Apple, Google, Microsoft … I Don’t Think So 联通想挑战苹果、谷歌、微软……？我不看好

◙ Baidu’s Mobile Plan: Do We Need Another OS? 百度手机操作系统计划有没有市场？

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

I don’t know if this is really major news, but I just couldn’t resist writing on this relatively quiet Friday about Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) latest plans to get into the love business by launching a wedding channel with Xoxo Group (NYSE: XOXO) and Ijie. (company announcement) The weddings industry is huge throughout the world, and China — where most urban families only have one child to give away under the nation’s one-child policy — is perhaps even more exuberant about the business. Having attended several of these affairs, I’ve seen how big they  are, involving lengthy photo shoots, multiple gowns and attire for a single wedding, and huge lavish banquets often involving hundreds of people. People say a Chinese woman won’t marry a man unless he owns a car and an apartment, but then they never add that when she finally does agree to tie the knot she also expects a huge, lavish wedding ceremony. It’s hard to say if this new Sina wedding channel will ever be strong enough to stand on its own and become an independent, major business like Sina’s popular Weibo microblogging site. But perhaps Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE), one of China’s top dating sites, could give some clues about the potential of the love business in China. Since limping out of the gate in their trading debut in May with a 4 percent decline (previous post), Jiayuan shares have come bouncing back and are now 13 percent above their IPO price. Similar good things could be waiting for Sina with this latest venture, considering the huge potential of the business in China and Sina’s strong record at executing well in its new business initiatives.

Bottom line: Sina’s new foray into the weddings business is likely to yield positive results, and could even become a new cash cow boosted by China’s growing hunger for lavish weddings.

我不知道这是否算得上是真正的要闻，但我就是忍不住在这个相对平静的周五就新浪<SINA.O>有意携手美国最大婚尚网站XO(NYSE: XOXO)和爱结网推出婚嫁频道的计划发表点儿看法。全世界的婚嫁产业都很庞大，而对於多数城市家庭只有一个孩子的中国而言，这一产业或许更为兴旺。我在中国参加过若干场婚礼，见识过其场面的巨大：长时间的拍照、频繁更换若干套礼服的婚礼仪式，动辄便有数百人参加的豪华宴会。中国人常说，女人不能嫁给一个没车没房的男人，但他们忘了说，当这个女人最终同意结婚时，她还期待举办一场隆重、豪华的婚礼仪式。很难说新浪婚嫁频道能否强大到站稳脚跟，变成一个像新浪微博一样的独立重要业务，但中国最大的婚恋网站–世纪佳缘<DATE.O>或许能就中国婚嫁行业的潜力给出些线索。自从5月赴美上市首日下挫4%以来，世纪佳缘的股价已有所反弹，目前比其IPO价格上涨13%。有鉴於中国婚嫁产业的巨大潜力和新浪新业务拓展的良好执行纪录，新浪婚嫁频道或许也会有类似的好事。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ No Marital Bliss for Jiayuan as IPO Fever Cools 互联网IPO热潮冷却 世纪佳缘美梦破灭

◙ Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

◙ Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

I reported three months ago that leading Chinese coal producer Shenhua (HKEx: 1088; Shanghai: 601088) looked set for some global M&A after raising more than $20 billion (previous post), and am pleased to say that I really like its first major deal on the global stage in Mongolia. (English article) While the deal, involving a project called Tavan Tolgoi, isn’t really M&A, since Shenhua will develop it along with consortia from America and Russia, it looks like a very solid first move for Shenhua as it ventures outside its home China market. Perhaps most importantly, this new project lies in a country right next to China, meaning Shenhua should easily be able to develop the rail and other infrastructure needed to transport the coal back home for use in China’s fast-growing, energy-hungry economy. The coal involved is also of high grade, meaning it should see strong demand from energy makers keen to play their part in China’s ongoing clean-up of its polluted environment. And lastly, Mongolia itself is a country where Shenhua should face little political resistance, unlike similar projects in Western countries like Australia, the US and Canada, where  Chinese resource firms after often greeted with opposition from nationalistic interests. The budget for this one also looks appropriate, with analysts estimating Shenhua will have to invest about $7 billion in the project’s first phase — easily affordable for a company that just raised $20 billion and could easily raise more. After announcing preliminary results of tenders for the project earlier this week, Mongolia, after South Korea and Japan raised objections, has said the results are not yet final. (English article) But considering the politics involved, namely that Mongolia wants to build strong relations with its two neighbors and the US, I would be surprised if there are any major changes between the preliminary announcement and the final deal.

Bottom line: Shenhua’s winning of a major project in Mongolia is a good first step abroad, providing a rich coal area in a nearby country that wants to develop better relations with China.

三个月前我曾在一篇博客中提到中国神华集团<1088.HK><601088.SS>进行价值或高达1,600亿元人民币的配股再融资後，很可能会展开海外并购（前博文）。现在我很高兴地说，我非常喜欢神华在国际舞台上的首个重大并购。虽然此次交易严格来说并不算并购，因为神华是与来自美国、俄罗斯的财团共同开发蒙古Tavan Tolgoi项目，但看来这是神华走出国门的坚实第一步。也许更重要的是，新项目所在国为中国近邻，神华应该可以很容易建设把煤炭输往中国所需的基础设施。而且项目涉及的煤炭等级较高，能源厂商的需求应该非常旺盛，以满足中国环保要求。最後，神华在蒙古应该不会面临什麽政治阻力，不像在澳大利亚、美国与加拿大等西方国家，中国资源企业往往因为民族主义利益的因素遭遇反对。该项目所涉资金看来也比较合适，分析人士预计神华对项目第一阶段大约将投资70亿美元。对於一家刚刚融得200亿美元资金的企业而言，这完全不是问题。本周稍早项目竞标的初步结果宣布後，日本和韩国方面提出异议，蒙古则表示这还不是最终决定。但是考虑到政治因素，即蒙古希望与两大邻国及美国建立强有力的关系，我认为初步结果与最终决定不会有大的出入。

一句话：神华赢得蒙古重大项目是其走上国际舞台的良好起步，因Tavan Tolgoi拥有丰富煤炭资源，而项目所在国蒙古希望与中国建立更紧密关系。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Yanzhou’s War Chest Gets Fatter on New M&A Model 兖州煤业将为中国同行树立榜样

◙ Yanzhou Joins China Outbound Coal Train 兖州煤业加入中国海外煤炭并购大军

◙ Shenhua Rights Issue Smells of Overseas M&A 神华能源可能进行海外并购

After successfully reinventing itself as an online game company a few years back, NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) appears to be looking to return to its roots as one of China’s earliest Internet portals by spinning off its portal business into a separately listed company, domestic media are reporting. (English article; Chinese article) This looks like a brilliant idea to me, allowing NetEase to breathe new life into its Web portal, which is still relatively respected but has become somewhat neglected over the last few years as the company focused on its game business. Rival Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has successfully used this strategy of starting new businesses and then spinning them off to develop successful ventures in the real estate services and, most recently, the microblogging spaces with its wildly popular Weibo service. Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) has also used a similar strategy, spinning off its online game business into a separate company and preparing to do the same thing for its online literature unit. (previous post) This kind of a strategy makes sense in general, as putting different businesses into separate units forces them to think independently about things like costs, revenue and profits and losses rather than depending on generosity from their parent’s other businesses to survive. Of course, the strategy doesn’t always work and NetEase may find it’s simply too late to rebuild its portal business after years of neglect that have seen Sina, and to a lesser extent Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), come to dominate the market. But the market could certainly support one or two more major players, and NetEase’s faded portal still enjoys enough name recognition that it could again become a major player if forced to become an independent company with responsibility for its own profits and losses.

Bottom line: NetEase’s potential spin off of its portal business into a separately listed company looks a smart plan to revive this once-thriving but now faded business.

据中国国内媒体报导，几年前成功变身为一家网游公司後，目前网易<NTES.O>似乎希望回归本行，重塑其作为中国门户网站先驱的角色，方式就是剥离其门户网站业务，让它成为一家独立的上市企业。我觉得这个主意很好，可以让网易门户网站重获生机。网易门户虽然还有相当的地位，但过去几年公司把重点放在游戏产业，对门户业务有一定忽略。竞争对手新浪<SINA.O>就成功利用类似策略，把开辟的新业务剥离出去，如房地产服务及微博业务。盛大<SNDA.O>也采用了类似策略，将其网络游戏业务剥离出来，形成一家独立的企业，而且目前正准备以同样方式处理其在线文学业务。此类策略整体上是可行的，因将不同的业务分拆成不同的部门，可以迫使它们独立思考成本、营收、利润等问题，而无法依赖母公司其他业务的帮助来生存。当然，这种策略并非一直都奏效，而且网易或许会发现，经过几年来的忽略，再建门户为时已晚，因新浪与搜狐<SOHU.O>已在很大程度上主宰了门户市场。但这个行业再多出一两家主要竞争者未尝不可，而且网易门户仍有足够知名度，也许它在被迫独立出来自负盈亏後仍可呼风唤雨。

一句话：网易如将其门户业务剥离出去，让其成为一家单独的上市公司，以重振昔日门户威风，或不失为明智之举。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanda’s New Deal: Spinning Off Literature 盛大文学拟分拆上市

◙ Sina’s Latest Weibo Move Looks Like SNS 新浪似要发展社交网站

◙ Sohu: New Media Fox or Just Another Game Player? 搜狐：新媒体巨头还是一个网游公司？

Just when everyone was writing off China’s car market for the rest of the year on slumping demand, GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) have surprised everyone by reporting that their unit sales rose by about 10 percent in June, reversing declines in the last couple of months. (English article) Some analysts are attributing the sudden turnaround to a return in demand after a sluggish spring, when generous government incentives designed to boost consumption during the global financial crisis were allowed to lapse. A few new incentives were rolled out to replace the old ones, but industry watchers said at the time those new measures, targeted more at rural buyers than big city dwellers (previous post), were far less generous than previous ones and would have little effect. What no one is talking about, and what I suspect is happening here, is that the big automakers are starting to aggressively cut prices to keep up sales after investing billions of dollars in new production facilities over the last two years during the boom times. If that’s the case, look for sales volumes to pick up for the remainder of the year, but also look for falling profits for everyone, which should be most obvious starting around the third quarter for the big domestic players like SAIC (Shanghai: 600104), Geely (HKEx: 175), BYD (HKEx: 1121) and Guangzhou Auto (HKEx: 2238). Barring any major new incentives from Beijing, a looming price war, if it materializes, could easily last for the next two years as the automakers wait for demand to catch up with all the new capacity that is now coming on stream. If that’s the case, both domestic and foreign auto makers could be looking at a tough road ahead for the next year or two.

Bottom line: A rebound in China’s June auto sales could portend a looming price war that could last for the next 2 years as car makers grapple with a big new supply glut.

正在所有人都因需求低迷悲观看待中国车市今年余下时间内的表现时，通用汽车<GM.N>与福特汽车<F.N>双双公布6月份在华销量扭转了过去几个月的下滑态势，同比增长10%左右，令人眼前一亮，一些分析师将其归功于需求经过春季低迷後的回升。中国对汽车行业出台了一些新的刺激措施，来取代旧有的刺激政策，但业内观察人士当时表示，新措施远没有原来的措施慷慨，难以产生明显效果。少有人提出但我在猜测的一个原因是，经过过去两年的斥巨资扩张产能，各大厂商现在开始大规模降价以提振销售。如果猜测属实，那麽今年余下时间的汽车销售状况应会改善，但所有厂家的利润都会走下坡路——对於本土大型厂商如上汽<600104.SS>、吉利<0175.HK>、比亚迪<1121.HK>与广汽<2238.HK>而言，大约从第三季开始就会明显看到这一势头。除非政府出台新的重大刺激政策，否则一场价格大战将在所难免，且一旦打起来，很容易会在未来两年持续，因新产能已陆续实现，但市场需求姗姗来迟。如果出现这种情况，中外汽车制造商未来一两年的日子大概都不太好过。

一句话：6月份中国汽车销售反弹迹象可能预示着价格战越来越近，供过於求的局面或将导致价格战在未来两年持续。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Cars: Less Restrictions and an Interesting Second-Hand Concept 汽车业：缓慢发展或成常态

◙ China Takes Car Incentives to the Farm to Halt Skid

◙ Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事

After reports emerged last week on the sudden turmoil at SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI), China top microchip maker, it now appears the company is in the midst of a power struggle at the top that could wreak havoc on both its short- and longer-term performance. Markets were caught by surprise when signs of the turmoil first emerged with the unexpected removal of CEO David Wang from the company’s board at its annual general meeting, which came just days after its chairman died from cancer. (previous post) Now my sources are telling me that the removal of Wang, a Taiwanese-born US citizen, from the board is part of a broader campaign to purge the company’s top management of Taiwanese and replace them with mainlanders. Those who have followed SMIC for a while will know that this company’s history has been very closely tied to Taiwan, which pioneered the contract chip manufacturing concept. Its original founder, Richard Chang, was a Taiwanese, as were most of his top managers before their removal less than two years ago with Wang’s arrival. Chinese media are reporting that SMIC’s largest shareholder, state-owned telecoms company Datang, is apparently no longer supporting Wang and wants to see him replaced by one of the company’s other mainland-born top executives. (Chinese article) The only problem is, former Chairman Jiang Shangzhou was a strong supporter of Wang and recently signed him to a new multi-year contract just before his death last week, my source says. Wang has done a decent job of turning around this company, restoring it to profits in the last few quarters after four straight years of losses. His signing of a new contract so recently would indicate he clearly had no intention of leaving. But if Datang and the emerging mainland clique make his life difficult, I could easily see him accepting a buy-out in the next few months. Whatever happens, all of this will be bad for SMIC’s performance in the short-term, and a long-term introduction of new mainland management with little or no experience running a major complex company like SMIC doesn’t look good for the long term either.

Bottom line: The ongoing power struggle in the top ranks of SMIC will create chaos for the company in the sort term, and could mark the start of a longer term decline.

上周有报导称，中芯国际<0981. HK><SMI.N>突然出现高层动荡，该公司目前看起来是陷入权力争夺战，这可能将影响其短期及长期表现。中芯国际董事长江上舟因癌症去世後，该公司召开年度股东大会，首席执行官王宁国意外落选董事会，中芯国际高层动荡初露端倪，这颇令市场感到意外。我的消息人士告诉我，台湾出生的美籍华人王宁国未能进入董事会，是中芯国际清理台湾高管，让大陆人取而代之的举措之一。一直关注中芯国际的人应当知道，公司与台湾方面渊源颇深，台湾率先创造出合同芯片制造理念。中芯国际创始人张汝京（Richard Chang）是台湾人，他的管理团队中多数也是台湾人，他在两年前黯然离开，王宁国正是在那时接手中芯国际。中国大陆媒体报导称，中芯国际最大股东——大唐电信显然不再支持王宁国，而力推另一名大陆出生的高管取而代之。我的消息人士透露，唯一的问题是，江上舟一直力挺王宁国，上周去世前刚与其签订了一份多年合约。中芯国际连续四年出现亏损後，王宁国帮助公司扭亏为盈。王宁国刚签订了新合同表明他无意离职。但如果大唐和大陆同僚让其处境艰难，我敢说，他几个月後将接受合同买断。无论哪种情况，这都对中芯国际短期表现不利，如果由经验不足或毫无管理经验的大陆高管接掌像中芯国际这样大公司，也并不利於公司长期发展。

一句话：中芯国际管理层权力之争将让该公司短期陷入混乱，可能标志着该公司长期下滑的开始。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ SMIC Rumbles with Talk of Leadership Change 媒体风传中芯国际领导层变动

◙ Intel’s Move Nods to China Gadget Clout, Smells Slightly of Desperation 英特尔人事调动突显中国市场影响力

◙ SMIC: Forging a Better Future?

China and US are finally taking some concrete steps to address the ongoing confidence crisis in US-listed Chinese stocks, amid the latest fall-out at Longtop (NYSE: LFT), the firm whose ongoing accounting scandal in many ways precipitated the crisis. Foreign media are reporting that officials from the US and Chinese securities regulators will meet in China next week to discuss taking the unprecedented step of giving the US Securities and Exchange Commission authority to launch investigations of companies whose main listing is in the United States, even if their primary operations are physically based in China. (English article) This kind of cooperation is sorely needed, as right now the SEC has very little authority to investigate these companies, including many very small ones with dubious finances that got their US listings through “back door” takeovers of existing shell companies. Knowing the US has greater authority to come into their China offices and check their books, and potentially work with Chinese officials to obtain search warrants, will make many of these companies think twice about pursuing a US listing if their finances aren’t in conformance with US standards. Meantime, the carnage continues at Longtop, whose CFO and auditor have already resigned in the scandal involving financial irregularities at the company. In the latest development, 3 of Longtop’s independent directors and members of its auditing committee have resigned, apparently even after the company asked them to stay. (company announcement) It’s not difficult to see why these 3 resigned, as this kind of independent director is exactly the type of person who should have spotted the irregularities much earlier and pointed them out to the company’s management and board. Still, their departure won’t do anything to help restore confidence in this badly troubled company anytime soon.

Bottom line: A meeting between US and Chinese securities officials could mark the first step in an unprecedented cross-border alliance needed to restore confidence in US-listed Chinese firms.

中美两国最终就解决在美上市的中国企业出现的信任危机开始采取某些实质性措施。最新爆出财务丑闻的东南融通金融科技<LFT.N>在很多方面加速了这一危机。外国媒体报导称，中美证券监管部门的官员下周将在中国会晤，就美国证券交易委员会(SEC)有权调查在美上市的中国企业(即便该公司的主要运营实际在中国)这一前所未有的措施进行讨论。类似的合作十分必要，因美国证交会基本无权调查这些企业，包括很多财务状况可疑、通过收购现存空壳企业等“走後门”方式在美上市的小企业。如果知道美国有更大权限调查这些中国企业、核查其财务状况，并可能与中国官员合作获得搜查许可，可能很多财务状况不达美国标准的企业便会在寻求在美上市时三思而行。同时，对东南融通金融科技的调查还在继续，该公司的首席财务官和审计师已经在这场财务违规丑闻中辞职。最新事态是，该公司的三名独立董事兼审计委员会成员已经请辞，即使公司再三挽留。不难看出，为什麽这三人会辞职，因作为独立董事本该很早就发现公司的违规行为，并报告给公司的管理层和董事会。当然，他们的离职并不会有助於这家陷入困境的企业尽早恢复信誉。

一句话：中美证券监管官员的会晤可能标志着中美就解决在美上市中国企业的信任危机问题上，迈出了前所未有的跨境合作第一步。

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Just three years after seeing his company, AIG (NYSE: AIG), driven to the brink of insolvency at the height of the global financial crisis, Maurice “Hank” Greenberg is returning to China to take another stab at his favorite market with a new insurance tie-up. Details are still thin pending an official ceremony set for next Monday, but a pre-announcement for the event says Greenberg’s Starr International, a private insurance holding company, will invest in another private Chinese insurer, Dazhong Insurance. (company announcement) This event has Shanghai written all over it, as Shanghai city officials are set to attend the event in their city, along with officials from China’s insurance regulator. Many followers of AIG, recipient of the largest-ever bailout by the US government during the financial crisis, will recall that Greenberg loved to tell the world how AIG was founded in Shanghai, and he was never shy about talking up the big potential of the China market. Of course, all that was put on hold when Greenberg was forced out of AIG during the crisis, and AIG’s Asia empire was later sold off in pieces to help pay back the US government. Given Greenberg’s strong connections in China and the backing for his new endeavor by the Shanghai government, I’d look for big things from Dazhong in the future, including a probable public listing in the next couple of years. China is sorely in need of another strong major player in its insurance sector, as the market is now dominated by China Life (HKEx: 2628; Shanghai: 601628) and Ping An (HKEx: 2318; Shanghai: 601318), and despite some hype at their formation, a number of foreign-invested insurance joint ventures haven’t made any significant progress. Look for big talk and lots of smiles at the ceremony next week, and for big things from Dazhong in the next 1-2 years.

Bottom line: Hank Greenberg’s return to China through an investment in Dazhong Insurance marks an important tie-up that could see the emergence of a major new player.

美国国际集团(AIG)<AIG.N>前执行长格林伯格(Maurice “Hank” Greenberg)曾目睹其公司在全球金融危机最严重之时濒临破产，仅仅三年後，格林伯格便带着新的保险合作项目重返他情有独钟的中国市场。诸多合作细节尚不得而知，一切均要等到下周一才正式揭晓，但活动公告称，格林伯格的私人保险控股公司——胜达国际集团(Starr International)将投资中国另一家私人保险公司——大众保险。此事将有上海市政府的参与，因上海市官员连同中国保险监管部门的官员将共同出席合作仪式。很多关注AIG的人能回忆起，格林伯格很喜欢告诉世界AIG是如何从上海发迹，他也从不羞于谈及中国市场的巨大潜力。当然，当他在危机期间被迫退出AIG时，他在中国的计划都被搁置了，且为偿还美国政府的救助款，AIG的亚洲帝国随後也被变卖得四分五裂。考虑到格林伯格在中国强有力的人脉以及上海市政府对其新投资的支持，我相信大众保险未来会有大行动，包括未来几年可能会上市。中国的保险业市场目前由中国人寿<601628.SS> <2628.HK>和中国平安<601318.SS> <2318.HK>两家保险公司主导，因此非常需要出现另一个强有力的竞争者，尽管很多外国投资的保险合资企业在其创建之时炒作得天花乱坠，但迄今未取得明显进展。相信下周的合作仪式上不乏重要会谈和满脸洋溢的笑容，相信大众保险未来1-2年会有大行动。

一句话：格林伯格通过投资大众保险回归中国是一次重要合作的标志，这次合作可能会给中国市场带来一个重量级竞争者的崛起。

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