Qihoo Goes to War With Mobile Browsers 奇虎360加强移动互联网布局

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I’ll be direct and say I don’t particularly like computer security software firm Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) due to its often questionable business practices and its guerrilla-style marketing tactics, which China’s weak legal system seems to encourage through lack of meaningful penalties. That said, market watchers might want to keep any eye on the company’s new plan to put the mobile Internet at the center of its strategy going forward. Qihoo has just launched a new suite of mobile browsers (company announcement), and its CEO Qi Xiangdong says the company is devoting big resources to development of its mobile Internet business. (Chinese article) I don’t know if these new browsers are good or not. But that probably won’t matter, as Qihoo, using its guerrilla-style tactics, will find a way to get these products onto the mobile phones of most Chinese consumers in the next year or 2 whether they want them or not, much the way it has done with its Web security products. Qihoo products, once on a person’s computer or mobile phone, are also very difficult to delete, and the company often designs in features to crowd out competing products. For older folks out there, Qihoo’s tactics are reminiscent of the kinds of things AOL did in the 1990s to become the leading US Internet service provider, before its rapid fall from grace when the Internet moved from dial-up phone service to broadband. The only difference is that AOL at least acted legally, while Qihoo has the added option of illegally sabotaging rival products to help propel its new mobile browsers to prominence. If I were an investor and didn’t have any qualms about ethics, I would say that Qihoo 360 shares could look like a good bet in the future, as the mobile Internet is clearly a strong growth area and Qihoo seems to have the right stuff to be a leader in the space. But then there’s always the chance that Beijing regulators or Chinese courts may some day sit up and try to rein in this unruly company.

Bottom line: Qihoo 360 guerrilla marketing tactics will give its new mobile Internet initiative a good chance of success.

开门见山地说，我不太喜欢计算机安全软件公司奇虎360<QIHU.N>，因为这家公司的商业行为经常令人质疑，采用游击式营销战术，而中国法律体制不够健全，惩罚力度不足，在某种意义上纵容了此类行为。不过，这家公司日前把移动互联网放到公司未来发展的战略中心位置，市场观察人士不妨关注一下。奇虎360刚刚推出一套新的移动浏览器，该公司总裁齐向东称360将投入最大的精力去发展移动互联网。我不知道新浏览器怎麽样。不过浏览器好不好可能无所谓，因为无论消费者想不想要，可能未来一两年内，奇虎都会利用游击战术把新的浏览器加入到中国用户手机上，重演360互联网安全产品的推广过程。奇虎产品一旦安装到电脑或者手机上就很难删除，而且其产品设计往往有排挤竞争产品的特点。对於年龄稍大的人而言，奇虎战术有点美国因特网服务提供商AOL上世纪90年代的影子。唯一的区别是，至少AOL没有违法，但是奇虎却可能利用不当手段，排挤竞争产品，以推动其新的移动浏览器占据显着地位。如果我是一名不太考虑道德规范的投资者，那我会说未来奇虎360股票是一个不错的选择，因为移动互联网显然将增长强劲，而奇虎又具备成为该领域领袖的潜质。不过话说回来，难说中国监管层或中国法院哪天突然决定管教一下这匹脱缰的马。

一句话：凭借游击营销战术，奇虎360移动互联网新计划胜算颇高。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Qihoo Loses Yet Another Lawsuit, But No One Cares 奇虎败诉不足为戒

◙ Qihoo: A Strange Tiger, Indeed 奇虎：真的是头怪虎！

◙ China Makes Up Its Mind: Penalty Reform 中国终于下决心:改革惩罚制度

Investors Punish Sina for Slow Weibo Progress

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Leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) is discovering there’s nothing like a good rumor to hammer one’s stock. The company’s shares are down nearly 18 percent over the last two days, including a 15 percent tumble on Tuesday, apparently on concerns that Beijing is preparing to license all microblogging siites, and that Sina’s sector leading Weibo service is not among 4 companies set to receive licenses. (Chinese article) Beijing has certainly shown a recent tendency to want to license things on the Internet, first requiring electronic payments firms to register with the government and later making similar requirements for online mapping companies. But in both instances, the government has shown little or no inclination to severely limit the number of licenses, and instead these mandates look more like efforts to provide more government oversight to ensure orderly development. That said, we’ve heard little or no indication so far that Beijing wants to regulate other areas like search, music, video or online games by forcing all participants to get government licenses. In this case, I suspect the sell-off reflects investor fatigue over the near non-stop hype surrounding Weibo since Sina spun it off into a standalone unit earlier this year (previous post) in preparation for a separate listing as soon as next year if the unit can find a way to turn its vast user base of 200 million into a profit center. Even after the sell-off, Sina’s price to earnings ratio for the next year is quite high at 125, though that probably doesn’t include any contribution from Weibo. Inn that light, this sell-off seems to be a call by investors for Sina to tone down the Weibo hype and instead to show some profits for this asset that looks attractive for its user base but has yet to show any contribution to Sina’s bottom line. Given Sina’s strong record at execution, I would say that Weibo should finally be able to show investors some money as soon the end of next year.

Bottom line: A sell-off of Sina shares reflects investor impatience over development of its Weibo microblogging site, which could turn a profit as soon as the second half of next year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

◙ Weibo in Smart Telecom Tie-up, Silly English Move 微博与中国电信合作实属明智之举 推英文版纯属浪费时间

News Digest: September 22, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 22. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) Plans 3C Price War Against 360Buy – Source (English article)

◙ Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Passes Acer (Taipei: 2353) As World’s Third Biggest PC Seller (Chinese article)

◙ Sino Agro Food Clears SEC Comments on its Form 10 Registration Statement (Businesswire)

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) Invests in Group Buying Cosmetics Site 36tuan – Source (Chinese article)

◙ Shanda’s (Nasdaq: SNDA) Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV) Quits Video, Tries SNS (Chinese article)

Apple Prepares to Bring Anti-Android Drive to China 苹果计划在华反击Android

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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has taken the interesting step of getting 40 new patents in China, in what looks like an opening move that could ultimately see it target the growing number of Chinese cellphone makers that use Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android cellphone operating system. (English article) The report in the China Daily focuses on the more obvious potential aims of the patents, such as closing a slew of bogus Apple stores that have sprung up in China as Apple’s sales have soared to surpass those of leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992). (previous post) But the article points out the new patents also cover Apple’s popular user-friendly smartphone operating system (OS), which has been largely responsible for the huge boom in its iPhone and smartphone sales in general over the last 3 years. Apple has argued that Google’s free Android OS, which has been embraced by many of the world’s top cellphone makers, is a copycat of its own OS, and has successfully sued to halt the sale of popular Android-based smartphones and tablet PCs from Taiwan’s HTC (Taipei: 2498) and Korea’s Samsung (Seoul: 005930). Based on that behavior, this new round of patent filings in China looks like Apple is preparing to sue Chinese smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo and TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618; Shenzhen: 000100), which all use Android. ZTE in particular could be at big risk, as its recent drive to become a global leader in smartphones costing as little as $100 each (previous post) relies heavily on Android. If Apple does file such a lawsuit, it will be interesting to see how China’s courts react as obviously any ruling in Apple’s favor could deal a big blow to the domestic industry. But anyone industry watchers should also note that Chinese courts don’t appear to have any power to make temporary rulings like judges do in the US, meaning any enforcement action can only occur after a judge makes a final decision — a process that could take months or even a year. Still, considering Apple’s success so far in the US against giants like Samsung and HTC, Chinese smartphone makers would be well advised to start drawing up plans for new Android alternatives if and when Apple moves its anti-Android battle to China.

Bottom line: Apple’s new round of patents in China look like the prelude to lawsuits against domestic smartphone makers like ZTE, which rely heavily on Google’s free Android operating system.

苹果(AAPL.O)在华成功申请了40项新专利，其终极目标看似是对采用谷歌(GOOG.O)Android系统的中国手机商亮剑的第一步。《中国日报》的报导侧重苹果旨在专利维权的一面，例如关闭苹果山寨零售店等。由于苹果电脑在华销量大涨，超过PC领军企业联想(0992.HK)，苹果山寨店如雨後春笋般涌现。但文章指出，苹果新申请的专利还包括其界面友好的智能手机操作系统(OS)，这一操作系统是过去三年推动iPhone和智能手机销量整体上升的重要原因。苹果辩称，全球许多顶级手机商采用的谷歌免费提供的Android系统，是抄袭苹果OS系统的设计。苹果还在宏达电(HTC)(2498.TW)和三星(005930.KS)专利侵权案中胜诉，成功迫使两家公司的Android智能手机和平板电脑暂停销售。鉴于此举，苹果在华新一轮的专利申请，看似将准备起诉使用Android系统的中国智能手机制造商，例如中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想和TCL通讯(2618.HK)。中兴通讯面临的风险尤其大，因为其近期力争成为售价低至100美元的智能手机的全球领军企业，该公司的这一计划严重依赖Anroid系统。如果苹果提出侵权诉讼，中国法院如何回应是件有趣的事情，因为任何明显有利于苹果的判决，都将重创中国手机产业。但业内观察者也指出，中国法庭进行终裁後才会有执行举措，而法庭裁判过程往往耗时数月甚至一年。话说回来，考虑到苹果在美胜诉三星和宏达电侵权，中国智能手机商最好早做打算，制定替代Android的新计划，以防苹果万一在华打响反击Android战役。

一句话：苹果在华新一轮专利申请，看似是起诉中兴通讯等中国智能手机商的前奏，这些本土企业严重依赖谷歌免费提供的Android操作系统。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

China Carmakers Lose a BRIC in Export Drive 中国汽车厂商的出口机会将逐步缩窄

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Chinese car makers looking to exports to offset slowing sales at home have received a setback, after an alarmed Brazil sharply raised car import tariffs in a move that appears to be aimed at a sudden spike in Chinese imports. (English article) According to a domestic media report, Brazil rushed through the new rates, which will raise tariffs by 30 percentage points, after imports of Chinese cars zoomed from zero last year to 43,000 vehicles in the first eight months of this year, accounting for 3.3 percent of the market. The increase will deal a blow to car makers like Chery and Dongfeng Motor (HKEx: 489), as they look to foreign markets to help offset slowing domestic sales. China’s car makers saw their sales jump by healthy double-digit rates in 2009 and 2010, as their market, with the help of rising incomes and buying  incentives from Beijing, zoomed past the US to become the world’s largest by unit sales. But the growth has come skidding to a halt this year as incentives expired, prompting some of the more innovative companies to look abroad to offset the slowdown. Most   domestic firms’ cars are too low in quality to compete in developed western markets, leading some to target developing markets like the BRICS. This latest move by Brazil spotlights the risks for that road, as developing markets aren’t likely to welcome a flood of imported vehicles that could hurt their own domestic automakers, and will thus resort to this kind of tax to encourage investment in their domestic industries. Indeed, China itself uses just such tactics, imposing high tariffs on imported autos that have encouraged foreign giants like GM (NYSE: GM) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) to invest heavily in the Chinese domestic industry. Chery has already detailed plans to invest $400 million in a Brazilian manufacturing plant, and this latest move by Brazil is likely to spark more similar moves for companies that have the cash to invest.

Bottom line: Brazil’s tax increase on imported cars will put the brakes on Chinese exports to the market, and spotlights the difficulties they will face exporting to developing markets in general.

巴西大幅提高汽车进口关税，似乎在遏制中国产品进口的骤然增长。这令中国汽车厂商寻求以出口增长抵消内需放缓的努力遭遇挫折。根据巴西媒体报导，巴西今年前八个月进口中国汽车4.3万辆，占到巴西市场的3.3%，而去年进口还是零，这促使巴西政府匆忙出台新关税税率，大幅提高30个百分点。该举措将给奇瑞、东风集团等中国汽车厂商沉重一击，他们原以为可以借助国际市场抵消国内销售放缓的冲击。2009年和2010年，中国汽车厂商销量均以两位数增幅上升，在民众收入提高和中国政府鼓励政策支撑下，中国汽车市场以销量计算已经超过美国，成为全球之首。但是，随着购车刺激政策到期，今年销量增长陷于停滞，促使一些更具创新性的公司开始瞄准海外市场，寻求以此抵消国内市场放缓的影响。多数国产汽车质量太差，无法参与发达国家市场竞争，部分企业于是转向包括金砖国家在内的发展中国家市场。巴西最近开始的关税行动给中国厂商敲响了警钟，发展中国家市场也不大可能容忍进口汽车泛滥，并伤害到本国企业，于是终将拿起关税武器，鼓励外商投资于本国的汽车产业。实际上，中国自己实行的也是这种策略，对进口车徵收高关税，鼓励通用汽车(GM.N)和大众汽车(VOWG.DE)等行业巨头大量投资于中国汽车工业。奇瑞已经制定了详细计划，拟投资4亿美元在巴西建制造厂。巴西提高关税的举动很可能是希望刺激更多有投资能力的企业仿效吉利。

一句话：巴西对进口汽车提高征税标准将遏制中国对巴西汽车出口，也凸显了中国汽车厂商对发展中国家市场出口面临的困难。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Chery: A Good Bite With Subaru But A Lemon With Venezuela 奇瑞汽车喜忧参半

◙ China Buses: Cheap But Stuck in China 金龙：别开得太快

◙ Autos: a Desperate Capital Grab for Jianghuai, and Dongfeng’s Silly South Africa Plans 汽车业：江淮增发东风出口

Tech, Environmental Issues Cast New Clouds Over Solar Firms

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As if things weren’t bad enough for Chinese solar firms, two new developments  are casting clouds over this already struggling sector, one overseas and one at home. Overseas, foreign media are reporting that new solar cells with record efficiency developed by First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), one of the last US players still in business following a recent round of bankruptcies, could significantly undermine Chinese rivals. (English article) The second development has seen a smaller US-listed Chinese firm, JinkoSolar (NYSE: JKS) apologize for leaking toxic waste into the environment at its China plant, and promise to clean up the mess. (English article) Let’s look at the First Solar development first, as it probably has the biggest implications. First Solar has showcased a new technology that can turn more than 15 percent of the sunlight it captures into electricity, a huge increase over current top rates that now stand at around 11 percent. Presuming it can commercialize the technology quickly, this kind of efficiency should give the company a huge edge over its Chinese rivals like Suntech (NYSE: STP), Trina (NYSE: TSL) and Yingli (NYSE: YGE), which may have to further lower their already anemic prices to attract customers with their less efficient products. Of course the Chinese companies are also working hard to develop their own higher efficiency products, but unless they can bring some to market soon we might even see First Solar tie up with one or two Chinese producers if demand for the new high-efficiency cells is strong enough. As to JinkoSolar, this story highlights China’s growing concerns about its environment and crackdowns on companies that carelessly dispose of their wastes. I suspect that the larger solar makers are more responsible in their waste disposal, but wouldn’t be surprised to see unexplained rising costs on some of their balance sheets in the next year or two as they install more equipment to dispose of their toxic wastes in more environmentally friendly ways.

Bottom line: New high efficiency solar cells from a US firm will further pressure already weak prices at Chinese players, whose costs for treating their toxic wastes are also likely to rise.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ US Solar Probe: Get Ready for China Bashing 美国太阳能调查：炮轰中国大潮的前奏

◙ US Solar Maker Fights Back With Govt Loan

◙ Solar Buzz at German Show on New Tech, M&A

News Digest: September 21, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 21. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Nokia Siemens Cuts 240 Jobs, Cut Workers Say Move Violates Labor Law (Chinese article)

◙ First Solar’s (Nasdaq: FSLR) Record Efficiency May Best China Solar Panels (English article)

◙ Blackstone hires Carlyle China dealmaker: sources (English article)

◙ China Telcos Announce August 2011 Subscriber Totals (English article)

◙ Qihoo 360 (Nasdaq: QIHU) Launches Full Suite of Mobile Browsers (PRNewswire)

Securities Regulator Seizes on US Confidence Crisis 中国证监会或介入企业海外上市

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The ongoing confidence crisis in the accounting practices of US-listed China stocks continues, with word that China’s securities regulator may be trying to squash the most commonly used route for Chinese firms to list overseas. Media are quoting industry sources saying the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission has submitted a plan to the nation’s Cabinet asking it to shut down the route, known in the industry as use of Variable Interest Entities or VIEs, or at the very least require all companies that use this gray-area road to overseas listings to vet their financials through the Chinese regulator. (English article; Chinese article) There are clearly some alarming implications here, especially if the Cabinet takes the more extreme route and shuts down the VIE listing route that has been in effect for more than a decade now, staring with listings of Web names like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) as early as the late 1990s, and which has expanded since then to include other areas like media and microchips. While one can never exclude a more drastic action, the CSRC’s move looks more opportunistic, aimed at giving it more control over Chinese companies that go overseas to list by drawing on the ongoing confidence crisis over the accounting practices of some overseas-listed China companies. My own sources confirm that something is happening, but share a similar view that any concrete action is probably a year or more away and is highly unlikely to include an outright shut-down of the current VIE process, which has had tacit approval of the central government for more than a decade now. What finally emerges may be a route to overseas listing that will include an added stop through the securities regulator, which could somewhat slow the process and would probably have the added effect of weeding out many more questionable companies like the ones that created the current crisis. In the meantime, we could see a mini-rush of companies making IPOs over the next year if the market improves, as they race to get there before any new policies take effect.

Bottom line: The securities regulators’ attempt to insert itself into the overseas listing process for Chinese firms could lenthen the process, but will also weed out many more questionable companies.

中国赴美上市企业会计丑闻引发的信任危机仍在继续，有传闻称中国证券行业监管机构可能正建议取缔中国企业海外上市过程中最常用的VIE结构。媒体援引行业消息人士报导，中国证监会已经向国务院递交申请，建议国务院取缔业可变利益实体(VIE)这种有争议的公司结构，或是至少要求所有使用这种方式赴海外上市的公司将财务报告提交中国证监会进行审核。显然，这将产生重大影响，特别是如果国务院采取更严格做法，取缔VIE上市途径。VIE做法已经存在十多年，最早开始于上世纪90年代末期新浪(SINA.O)和网易(NTES.O)等互联网公司的海外上市，随後扩大到媒体和芯片等其他行业。尽管无法排除采取更严厉行动的可能性，证监会的行动看似更具机会主义性质，目的在于利用部分海外上市的中国公司因会计问题面临持续信心危机的机会，对海外上市企业加强管控。我的消息人士证实将有事情发生，但是也持有类似观点，即任何具体行动可能要等一年或更长时间才会开始，基本上没有可能全面取缔现有VIE程序，中央政府在过去十多年来始终对此做法采取默许态度。最终结果可能是，计划海外上市的公司必须增加在中国证监会接受审查的程序，这可能会在某种程度上延缓整个上市进程，也可能有效排除更多有问题的公司，就像引发当前危机的这些企业。同时，如果市场大势改善，未来一年很可能出现一波上市小高潮，争相赶在新政出台前完成上市。

一句话：证券监管机构试图介入中国公司赴海外上市进程，可能令上市进程延长，但也将清除更多有问题的公司。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Accounting Scandal Claims AutoChina As Second Big Victim

◙ Deloitte, SEC Clash in New Confidence Crisis Chapter

◙ Sharks Come Out in China Stock Crisis 信任危机冲击在美上市中资股

 

 

Anti-Monopoly Regulator Makes Poor Choice in Chasing China Telecom 中国反垄断初试牛刀 选错对象

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After a couple of years of a low-key approach and not doing much, China’s anti-monopoly regulator is finally getting to work by investigating China Telecom’s (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) dominance in the country’s broadband market. I’ll admit this is an interesting case, and have to applaud the regulator for following up on complaints by names like China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Tietong that China Telecom unfairly uses its dominant position to keep others out of the market. (English article; Chinese article) But frankly speaking, the regulator has chosen the wrong case to test out its powers as enforcer of fair market competition. China Telecom certainly has a dominant position in broadband, drawing on its legacy wired networks to provide services to the companies and consumers, especially in the southern China where it has the most extensive networks. But there are many indications that more competition is coming, and indeed already exists. Unicom itself already has significant fixed-line broadband representation in the northern China, the result of a decade-old split that saw the nation’s previous wired-line phone monopoly split up and its northern networks given to Unicom and the southern ones to China Telecom. Furthermore, China Mobile (HKEx: CHL) is on a current campaign to build extensive wi-fi service, another form of broadband, with plans to build 1 million hot spots in the next 3 years (previous post). China’s current drive to consolidate its cable TV operators should produce yet another major wired broadband player. With all these alternatives in the market, not to mention China Mobile’s 4G network that could launch commercial service as soon as next year, it will be hard for the regulator to determine that China Telecom has a monopoly on broadband service. I do applaud the regulator for taking on this difficult case, but instead it should focus on speeding up approval for YUM Brands’ (NYSE: YUM) pending purchase of hot pot chain Little Sheep (HKEx: 968), announced 5 months ago (previous post), which has no monopolistic implications but has some worried the deal could be vetoed on nationalistic grounds.

Bottom line: China’s anti-monopoly regulator has made a bad choice in chasing China Telecom’s broadband dominance in its first tough case.

中国《反垄断法》出台三年来，相关部委一直低调行事且作为有限，如今终於“初试牛刀”，对主导国内宽带接入市场的中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>展开反垄断调查。我承认这很有趣，不得不为监管机构回应中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国铁通的抱怨鼓掌。这些电信商称，中国电信不公平利用其宽带市场主导地位，试图排挤其它竞争对手。但坦白地说，监管机构希望推动市场公平竞争，但初试牛刀却选错对象。中国电信凭借已有的有线网络，向各大公司和消费者提供服务，确实在宽带接入市场占主导地位，尤其是在中国电信网络覆盖很广的南方地区。但许多迹象表明，该领域竞争已经展开，并即将激烈化。联通占有中国北方固话宽带较大份额。这是原中国电信十年前南北分拆的结果。此外，中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>正在拓展WiFi服务（宽带的另一种形式），计划未来三年在全国增加100万个WiFi热点。中国目前整合有线电视运营商的行动，也将制造另一个有线宽带竞争者，更别提中国移动4G网络最早明年可能实现商用。宽带市场拥有上述替代选择，监管者很难断定，中国电信垄断国内宽带服务。我的确要为监管机构处理这一棘手问题叫好，但他们更应加速百胜集团<YUM.N>收购小肥羊<0968.HK>的审批，这笔交易并无垄断迹象，但一些人担忧，该交易或因民族主义原因而被否决。

一句话：中国监管机构就宽带接入问题，对中国电信进行反垄断调查，但初试牛刀却选错对象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Wi-Fi Play Misguided 中移动：百万WiFi热点？

◙ China Telecom Joins Hot Spot Frenzy Wifi热潮兴起 中国电信与中国移动谁将胜出？

◙ YUM and Little Sheep – A Sweet Match If China Approves 美国百胜购小肥羊：甜蜜姻缘还靠中国政府成全

Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

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It’s only 3 months since Alibaba split its consumer-oriented Taobao Website into two units, and already it’s starting to hype the more promising of the  two, the B2C-focused Taobao Mall, in what’s no doubt the run-up to an IPO that could come as soon as next year. At the same time, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) is continuing with its battle to win back credibility following a scandal earlier this year, in a clear divergence of strategy for these two sister companies that are both part of Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba Group. Let’s look at Taobao Mall first. The 3-month-old company has held what was probably its first stand-alone press conference, in which it boasted it expects its sales volume to double to 200 billion yuan next year, or about $31 billion, and where it announced a new strategy where it will open its site to other online retailers like Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian in addition to traditional retail names like Dell. (Nasdaq: DELL) (English article) President Daniel Zhang was a big cagier about Taobao Mall’s profits, only saying the company’s profit margin has reached that of other Chinese Internet companies. But clearly the company is feeling pressure to go to market sooner rather than later to return some investment dollars to companies like Japan’s Softbank, who have been waiting 7 years now for a return on their money. I’d look for this IPO to happen as soon as Taobao Mall can show some meaningful profits, probably sometime next year. Meantime, sister company Alibaba.com continues to be on the defensive, following a scandal earlier this year where bogus retailers were cheating buyers on the company’s B2B site. (previous post) Chinese media are reporting Alibaba.com has embarked on a campaign to verify the identities of all of its sellers, clearly in a bid to try and restore confidence to buyers whose numbers have plateaued and even started to fall since the scandal began earlier this year. (Chinese article) Look for this PR campaign to continue and for Alibaba.com to post more tepid results for the next year until it regains the trust of the online B2B buying community.

Bottom line: Taobao Mall’s admission of online retailers to its site is hype for an IPO as early as next year, while sister site Alibaba.com’s will need at least a year to rebuild its credibility following a recent scandal.

距离阿里巴巴将淘宝商城从淘宝网拆分仅仅过去3个月，聚焦于B2C的淘宝商城比淘宝网更有发展潜力，并且至早明年就可以准备上市。与此同时，阿里巴巴B2B(HKEx: 1688)作为淘宝网和淘宝商城的姐妹公司，仍在努力消除年初中国供应商丑闻带来的负面影响。昨 天，三个月大的淘宝商城举行了首场独立身份的新闻发布会，预期2012年交易额目标为2000亿元(合313亿美元)，为今年交易额的2倍。会上还宣布淘 宝商城除了像以往那样和传统品牌如戴尔(Nasdaq: DELL)合作外还会与网店结盟，比如沃尔玛(NYSE: WMT)投资的一号店。淘宝商城总裁张勇对其利润守口如瓶，仅仅说与目前的中国互联网公司持平。但是显然公司面临早日上市以回报投资者的压力，软银已经为 投资回报等待了7年之久。我认为一旦淘宝宣布其利润达到某个关键数值就会上市，时间可能在明年。与此同时，阿里巴巴B2B年初发生的信任危机导致临阵换将，这一事件的影响至今仍未消除。中国媒体报道，阿里巴巴推出一系列新举措以使入住者重拾信任，但上述公关举措是否能如愿让股票表现回到风波之前的水平，仍不明朗。

一句话：淘宝商城对在线零售商的结盟或许是为了可能在明年达成上市而炒作，与此同时阿里巴巴B2B年内仍要致力于消除中国供应商事件的不利影响。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Taobao Split: Separating Wheat From the Chaff 淘宝一分为三 如何取其精华

◙ Taobao Mall Takes Hit with Drug Sale Ban 中国规范网络售药 或重创淘宝商城

◙ Alibaba Resignations: Is the Magic Gone?

 

Tidbits: Sany Heavy, Yingli, WineNice

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There are quite a few too good stories out there today, so here are some quick takes on a few that didn’t make the headlines but look interesting nonetheless.

— Sany Heavy Industries (Shanghai: 600031): China’s largest maker of construction machinery is moving ahead with a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $3.3 billion despite a frosty market. This one looks interesting, coming just days after leading brokerage CITIC Securities, another attractive blue-chip, announced a similar plan. These two deals coming so close together look like Beijing may be at work behind the scenes to try to revive China’s struggling stock markets. (English article)

— Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE): The company announced the resignation of one of its independent directors, who also happens to be a member of its audit committee and the CEO of China’s biggest Internet company Tencent (HKEx: 700). This announcement looks strikingly similar to ones in July from Trina (NYSE: TSL) and LDK (NYSE: LDK), and indicates these companies may be getting a tad too creative with their accounting. (company announcement)

— WineNice: Chinese media are reporting this online wine seller has raised a sweet $80 million in first round venture capital funding. This deal shows that major new investment is still flowing into Chinese Internet firms, although at a slower speed than earlier this year. This wine seller looks like an interesting niche player that could potentially survive the looming Chinese Internet bubble, drawing on appetite from a new generation of Chinese yuppies for wine. (Chinese article)