China Telecom Move Signals Industry Shuffle 中国电信高层调整 预示或出现行业高层换血

It seems to be the season for executive shuffles at the top of major state-run companies, with telecoms now looking set for major changes with a new announcement that a new CEO will take over at the top of the Hong Kong-listed China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). (Chinese article) Under the change longtime head Wang Xiaochu will stay on as chairman of China Telecom’s state-run parent, but this move looks like the first step before his eventual removal from the company to make way for new, younger leadership as the Communist Party itself is gears up to install its own new set of leaders as part of its regular  change every 10 years. China Telecom’s shift comes as rival China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) also prepares to edge out its long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou to make way for new leaders (previous post), and comes less than a week after a major shuffle in the banking world that saw top executives at Agricultural Bank of China (HKEx: 1288; Shanghai: 601288) and China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939) take on new positions in the nation’s financial regulators. (previous post) So you’re probably asking yourself, what does it all mean for the telecoms space? The answer is that we probably won’t see much change immediately, but should see both China Mobile and China Telecom become more aggressive over the longer term as their younger, new leaders try to reshape these slow-moving state-run giants into more nimble, competitive players. That new stance could also see them become more assertive in terms of global M&A, an area that China Mobile has tried before without much success, and which China Telecom and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), the nation’s other major carrier, have yet to seriously consider. With China Telecom’s new announcement, Unicom becomes the only major telco that has yet to announce a big change at the top — an ironic twist since it is probably the company in biggest need of new leadership as it struggles for direction. (previous post) But in light of the China Telecom announcement and the broader changes taking place at state-run companies, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar shake-up at Unicom by the end of the year.

Bottom line: A shake-up at the top of China Telecom signals a broader industry shuffle that will see the country’s 3 major telcos become more aggressive both at home and abroad.

Related postings 相关文章:

China Mobile Shuffle: Sea Change Coming? 中移动高层变动或引发重大变化?

Sputtering Unicom’s Latest Excuse: Lack of Leadership

Beijing’s Financial Shufflle: Bankers or Regulators? 中国金融高层“大换血”

Liu Steps Down at Lenovo — Again 柳传志再度卸任联想董事会主席

China’s business world is fast becoming the land of deja vu, at least from my perspective. Just a day after Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) snubbed China for a second time by excluding the country from its international launch list for its  latest hot product (previous post), PC powerhouse Lenovo (HKEx: 992) has announced that co-founder Liu Chuanzhi is stepping down as chairman for a second time. (company announcement) But the deja vu doesn’t end there. Not only is Liu stepping down a second time, but his heir apparent is Yang Yuanqing, who also took over the chairmanship the first time Liu stepped down shortly after his company’s historic purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) PC assets in 2005. My question is: if Yang couldn’t succeed the first time, which prompted Liu to return to the chairmanship in 2009, then why does Liu suddenly think he will succeed now? In all fairness, things are a little different this time around. The last time Yang was named chairman, an American, Bill Amelio, was also brought in as CEO to help Lenovo digest its then newly-purchased IBM business. That combination proved too difficult for Lenovo, which incurred losses and underwent a major restructuring that prompted Liu to return as chairman in 2009. This time around, Lenovo has also just posted very nice earnings that saw its profit surge 88 percent in its latest quarter (English article), partly due to recent acquisitions in Germany and Japan, as it zoomed past Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) to become the world’s second biggest PC seller, behind only Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ). But those new acquisitions also look very much like the IBM purchase, in that both are in mature Western markets, which have been a difficult area for Lenovo in the past. I would like to think that Yang could succeed this time and Liu, now in his 70s, can permanently retire. But I sense that Yang’s return will signal more rocky times ahead, with earnings likely to take a hit as Lenovo stumbles in trying to integrate its Western acquisitions and grab more global market share.

Bottom line: Liu Chuanzhi’s departure as chairman of Lenovo for a second time signals a rocky period ahead for the company.

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Lenovo Takes Backward Step With Compal JV 联想和仁宝合资建厂为倒退举动

Acer Trips, Lenovo Next? 联想应避免重蹈宏基覆辙

Huawei, Lenovo Look to Foreign Advisors in Westward Drive

Tidbits: Alibaba, Anhui Conch, Sinopec, China Mobile

There are quite a few too good stories out there today, so here are some quick takes on a few that didn’t make the headlines but look interesting nonetheless.

— The chief executive of Alibaba’s Etao has held a high-profile media briefing to announce his company, operator of a search engine specializing in e-commerce, will invest 1 billion yuan in its business. (English article) This event is a clear signal to the market that Alibaba intends to stand by this investment despite recent moves by a number of major e-commerce sites, including 360Buy, Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) and Suning (Shenzhen: 002024), to block their pages from inclusion in Etao’s search results.

Sinopec (HKEx: 386; NYSE: SNP) is reportedly in talks to buy a stake in Galp’s Brazilian Unit, for what’s sure to be an overinflated price. (English article) This latest potential mega-acquisition by a Chinese oil major just shows how China’s policy of buying global assets at any cost to feed its growing economy continues to be in effect, even as oil prices show every sign of coming down for an extended period.

— The China Daily is reporting that Anhui Conch (Shanghai: 600585; HKEx: 914), one of the country’s leading cement makers, aims to go global by purchasing distressed international assets for bargain prices, as most of the world’s construction industry suffers during the global downturn. I would look for this company to carry through with this plan with a major announcement or two over the next year, but have serious doubts about its ability to manage such global assets.

— Chinese media are reporting that China Mobile‘s (HKEx: 941) long-running talks with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) to make a TD-SCDMA iPhone have finally broken down, confirming what I had already suspected several weeks back. (Chinese article) If true, which seems likely, this would be a relatively major setback for China Mobile, which was counting on the iPhone to breathe some life into its anemic 3G business.

News Digest: November 3, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on November 3. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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ZTE (HKEx: 763) Ranks Fourth in Q3 2011 Global Handset Shipments (English article)

Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Q2 Profit Up 88 Percent, Beats Forecast (English article)

China Telecom (HKEx: 728) Names Yang Jie as New CEO of Listed Company (Chinese article)

China Mobile (HKEx: 941) Ends Talks With Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) For TD-SCDMA iPhone (Chinese article)

China Power in $784 million JV with China Coal (English article)

Apple Overlooks China — Again 苹果再次撇开中国内地市场

In what is becoming an increasingly common refrain, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has once again overlooked China in the global launch for its latest smartphone, the iPhone 4S, in what looks like an expression of growing frustration with its difficult Chinese partners. The company, whose China sales have exploded on the popularity of its smartphones, tablet PCs and desktop computers, has announced a second wave of launch markets for the newest iPhone starting next week following the initial launch in the US and several other major markets last month. (company announcement) The second wave includes Hong Kong and South Korea in Asia but contains no mention of China, with Chinese media reporting a launch for the domestic market won’t occur until year-end at the earliest. (Chinese article) This latest China snub looks similar to Apple’s global launch for its iPad2 in May, when China was also absent from the original list. In that case, however, Apple quickly reconsidered and launched the iPad 2 in China just a week after the global launch. (previous post) In this case, in my view, the absence of China from the latest global iPhone launch probably reflects Apple’s growing frustration with China’s 3 telcos, most notably China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), the country’s only official iPhone supplier to date. Unicom has recently shown a tendency to botch even the simplest product launches, and is fast squandering its chances to pick up share on dominant carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). For their part, China Mobile and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), China’s third telco, have also proven difficult partners for Apple, with each repeatedly hinting they were on the verge of signing iPhone deals only to fail to announce anything. It’s still possible we could see an iPhone 4S deal in China before year-end if Unicom can reach an agreement. But based on past experience, I wouldn’t bet on seeing any official iPhone 4S tie-ups in China anytime soon.

Bottom line: Apple’s failure to include China in its latest iPhone 4S launch list reflects its difficult relationship with China’s mobile carriers, especially China Unicom.

Related postings 相关文章:

China Mobile: Where’s the 3G iPhone? 中移动4G网络稳步推进 3G版iPhone或遇阻

Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

Report Takes Wind Out of Inflated Qihoo 奇虎遭遇Citron釜底抽薪

A report from a small research house appears to have finally awakened the world to the reality behind the Chinese Internet comedy known as Qihoo (NYSE: QIHU), which has steadily lured in investors — achieving a ridiculously high valuation — since its IPO in March. The research report by Citron sparked a sell-off in Qihoo shares, which tumbled 10 percent on Tuesday during a turbulent session that saw the broader indexes also fall by more than 2 percent. So, what exactly did Citron say that got everyone so spooked and prompted Qihoo to issue a “clarifying” press release? (Qihoo announcement) I haven’t seen the actual report so can’t comment in too much detail. But based on other media reports and Qihoo’s own announcement, the Citron report essentially called into question many of Qihoo’s claims about the size of its user base and the company’s scale as a major Chinese Internet player. Citron further commented that Qihoo’s stock price should be around $5 per share, or about a quarter of its value of $20 per share at the beginning of the Tuesday New York trading day. (Chinese article) Bloomberg data lists Qihoo’s forward price-to-earnings ratio at a massive 900 times, which seems overstated although I’ve read that its PE is the largest of all China Internet companies. All of this doesn’t surprise me, as I’ve repeatedly questioned Qihoo’s credibility, as the company has been the subject of a number of high profile lawsuits, most of which it has lost, though with little financial consequences. (previous post) I honestly don’t know why investors have been so excited about the stock, and wouldn’t be surprised if this unethical company has engaged in some manipulative activity to get its valuation so high even compared with leaders like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700). All that said, this new report looks like it may finally awaken investors to all the questions surrounding this company, and could well mark the beginning of a broader decline to Citron’s $5-per-share target or even lower.

Bottom line: A report by a small research house has finally awakened investors to the many questions surrounding Internet firm Qihoo, whose stock could drop steadily for the rest of the year as a result.

Related postings 相关文章:

Qihoo Goes to War With Mobile Browsers 奇虎360加强移动互联网布局

Qihoo Loses Yet Another Lawsuit, But No One Cares 奇虎败诉不足为戒

China Legal System Takes Bite Out of Tencent’s Qihoo Lawsuit 中国法律体系让奇虎在与腾讯的官司中免受重大损失

Baidu Video Tries Blockbuster Licensing

Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) online video joint venture Qiyi seems to have learned a lesson from its pirating parent, announcing a new exclusive licensing deal for the China online video rights for the popular latest installment in Paramount’s (NYSE: VIAb) “Transformers” movie franchise. (English announcement) Baidu itself has found big success in allowing the exchange of pirated material, mostly music, over its web site in recent years and continues to offer such services despite ongoing government pressure on Chinese web firms to get out of the pirating business. But in a nod to that pressure, in July it formally launched a service for legally obtained music, and announced a series of high-profile licensing deals to offer music on it from several major Hollywood record labels, though added it had no intention of closing its piracy-plagued older music site. (previous post) This new strategy from Qiyi, which already appears to offer legal copies of popular US TV series, looks relatively smart to me, drawing on exclusive rights for individual big-name movies to draw in viewers. Still, it will have to compete with the likes of online video leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and the video site operated by Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), which have also signed similar though much bigger deals with major Hollywood studios in the last few months. Its unclear if Qiyi, founded less than 2 years ago, will be able to pay the big bucks that these older, more established companies are paying for exclusive rights to big-name films, which may explain its approach of buying of single blockbuster title rather than signing broader licensing deals which are much more expensive. The company also has the advantage of tapping a huge potential audience of users from Baidu, China’s dominant search engine with nearly 80 percent of the market. That tie-up, combined with this early approach to exclusive licensing for single blockbusters, could create a potent formula for success as Qiyi looks to establish its name in the online video space.

Bottom line: Online video site Qiyi’s signing of an exclusive deal for a single Hollywood blockbuster looks like an interesting approach, which, combined with support from parent Baidu, could boost its chances for success.

Related postings 相关文章:

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆,寻求多元化

After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

News Digest: November 2, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on November 2. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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China Mobile (HKEx: 941), Unicom (HKEx: 762) Lower Int’l Fees to Lure High-End Users (Chinese article)

CNOOC (HKEx: 883; NYSE: CEO) Still in Talks For BP’s PAE Stake After Deadline Lapses (English article)

Taobao Says China’s 2010 Online Shopping Service Market Reached RMB 2 Bln (English article)

Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) Announces Q3 Results (PRNewswire)

Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) QIYI In China Online Distrib Deal for Paramount Transformers Film (PRNewswire)

Sputtering Unicom’s Latest Excuse: Lack of Leadership

China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) is reportedly conducting a massive search for top-level managers in many provinces, once again underscoring how the company is badly in need of strong new leadership as it increasingly appears to be squandering its golden opportunity to gain market share over dominant carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). According to Chinese media reports, Unicom is looking for people to head its operations in a large number of provinces, continuing a search that dates back as far as February last year. (Chinese article). It’s been nearly 3 years now since Unicom merged with rival China Netcom in a major industry restructuring, and certainly the company can be forgiven for not filling key positions for the first year or so after such a big change. But 3 years is quite a long time, and if it’s taking them this long to fill these key positions it’s no surprise that the company is making little or no progress at bolstering its position in China’s mobile market. Most will recall that Unicom was given a golden opportunity to gain share over China Mobile, which controls over two-thirds of China’s mobile market, nearly 3 years ago when it was awarded a 3G license based on the world’s best technological standard. By comparison, China Mobile received a big handicap by having to develop its 3G service using a homegrown standard with lots of problems. Despite that, Unicom’s share of the 3G market has remained stagnant since the beginning of the year, at around 30 percent. Meantime, China Mobile’s 3G share has eroded from 45 percent in April to 42 percent in September, with the country’s third-largest carrier, China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) picking up all of those loses. Unicom, which also has the enviable advantage as China’s only official seller of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhones, previously blamed a lack of 3G handsets for its failure to pick up share despite its obvious technological advantages. Now it looks like it’s blaming lack of strong management at the provincial level. Either way, Unicom seems to be better at making excuses than doing good business, and I’m fast losing confidence in its ability to bolster its position under current management.

Bottom line: Unicom’s latest problems in filling top management jobs at the provincial level reflect a poorly run company that is fast squandering its golden opportunity to pick up market share from rivals.

Related postings 相关文章:

Unicom’s Sputtering 3G: Blame It On the Handsets 联通幡然醒悟 借低价手机扩张3G市场

China Mobile Shuffle: Sea Change Coming? 中移动高层变动或引发重大变化?

China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

Sohu’s Blowout Earnings: IPO In Store for Video? 搜狐发喜报视频业务或上市

Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), a perennial second-place finisher to Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) in China’s Internet portal space, has just posted quarterly earnings that look quite impressive, showing its video business is fast becoming a major industry player and its online search may finally be gaining traction after years of struggling. Of course the one potential dark cloud over all of this may be China’s looming Internet bubble, which could abruptly halt the rapid growth for both of those businesses when it comes, probably around the middle of next year by my estimation. But first the good news. Sohu reported that revenue for its video segment more than doubled for the quarter, making it China’s second largest player, behind only Youku (NYSE: YOKU). (company announcement) Like Youku, Sohu has been a leader in the video space by signing some big licensing deals to offer content from the major Hollywood studios. It also has an advantage over independent video companies like Youku and Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) because it operates a more diversified Internet business, allowing it to leverage video over more of its other channels. Given the business’ rapid rise, Sohu must surely be thinking of spinning off video for an IPO as soon as the business turns profitable, possibly as soon as the second half of 2012, much the way it spun off its lucrative Changyou (Nasdaq: CYOU) online game business several years ago. After years of struggling, Sohu’s online search engine Sogou also appears to have finally gained some traction, with revenue soaring 244 percent in the quarter to $18 million, to take around 2.2 percent of the market. Those numbers are clearly still quite modest, but Sohu forecast that revenue would grow another 14 percent quarter-on-quarter to around $21 million in the fourth quarter. Of course all the growth could come to a screeching halt if and when China’s Internet bubble bursts, which would put a chill on advertising revenue. Sohu itself hinted at possible early signs of such a slowdown, forecasting brand advertising revenue would see little or no growth in the fourth quarter from the third. But for now at least, the company seems to be riding high on China’s Internet boom.

Bottom line: Sohu’s latest results show strong gains for its search and especially its video business, with the latter set for a possible spin-off and IPO as early as the second half of 2012.

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Renren Finds Video Bargain in China Web Bubble 人人网低价收购56网 凸显中国互联网困境

Hulu Makes First Global Stop in Japan, China Next?

Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

New Regulatory, Competitive Waves Hit E-Commerce 监管和竞争冲击电子商务领域

Turbulence continues to pelt China’s e-commerce sector, with new reports showing how rampant competition is pushing up costs as an industry regulator gets looks into anti-monopoly claims against top online mall operator Taobao Mall. A new foreign media report cites the top executive at luxury e-commerce site Xiu.com saying that rents for the massive warehouses required by most online merchants have soared in the last year, as players like 360Buy and Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian all vie for facilities near major cities where they can store and then ship their goods. (English article) Global e-commerce leader Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) has joined the fray, announcing last week that its China operation was opening a 120,000 square meter facility in the city of Kunshan, not far from Shanghai, quadrupling its warehouse space in the affluent Yangtze River Delta region. (previous post) The soaring warehouse rents are just the latest headache for the overheated e-commerce sector, where most major players are already hemorrhaging money as the industry heads for a much needed consolidation that is likely to come by the middle of next year. Meantime, domestic media report the Commerce Ministry is entering the e-commerce fray by launching an anti-monopoly investigation into Taobao Mall, Alibaba’s B2C operation, in response to merchant complaints that the online mall operator used its dominant position to unilaterally force a massive fee hike on its merchants, leading many small- and mid-sized sellers to rebel. (English article) I personally think this latest Commerce Ministry investigation is a bit misguided, as there’s plenty of competition in the e-commerce space though less so in the online mall sector. If the ministry really wants to chase someone for anti-monopoly violations, it should focus on online search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which controls nearly 80 percent of the market.

Bottom line: Soaring warehouse rents are the latest sign of overheating in China’s e-commerce space, which is also facing the threat of increasingly heavy-handed regulation by Beijing.

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Amazon Name Shift Signals China Ramp-Up 亚马逊改名背后折射中国野心

Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

China Regulors Threaten E-Commerce, Group Buying 官方监管威胁到电子商务与团购业务