LaShou Shifts Focus in IPO March 拉手网在上市准备中有意转变战略方向

Leading Chinese group buying site LaShou must surely be encouraged by Groupon’s successful $700 million IPO last week, but oddly enough, the company is sending strange signals into the market in the run-up to its own US public offering that it hopes to make soon. In what looks like a deliberate news leak by the company, LaShou insiders are saying the company may abandon its group buying business model in favor of a more reliable model that would see it operate a more conventional e-commerce online mall. (English article) If true, this kind of shift would probably be a good one for LaShou over the longer term, as the e-commerce mall model has worked well for others around the world, including domestic leader Taobao Mall. But the timing of this kind of news, again if it’s true, will hardly appeal to potential IPO investors in LaShou, who will now surely wonder what exactly they are investing in. LaShou made its first public filing last week for an IPO it hopes to make in New York to raise up to $100 million, launching a race to market with crosstown rival 55tuan, which has also said it wants to make a US IPO by the end of the year. (previous post) My interpretation of this apparent news leak by LaShou is that it is probably in response to a very cool early reception to its planned offering from investors. In its first public filing, the company said it lost about $60 million in the first half of the year, and rampant competition in the sector means the losses aren’t likely to moderate anytime soon. On top of all that, constant quality control issues in the sector have led to a flood of complaints by consumers, with the result that the government is taking an increasingly aggressive stance towards these unruly group buying companies which could further stymie their future development. I previously said that problems with both LaShou and 55tuan, combined with broader issues in China’s group buying sector, could mean that neither of these 2 companies may end up making an IPO by the end of this year, even though both urgently need  new cash. This latest news leak about LaShou appears to confirm that investors are giving its offering a cool reception, and indeed it may have to withdraw its plan unless it can convince investors why they should buy into the company.

Bottom line: LaShou’s apparent news leak about a potential major shift in strategic direction reflects a cool reception to its planned New York IPO.

Related postings 相关文章:

Lashou Files For IPO, Launching Race With 55tuan 拉手网与窝窝团打响IPO竞争战

55tuan: A Company in Denial 窝窝团拒不接受现实

Lashou Ropes in Small Potatoes For US IPO 拉手网聘二流承销商赴美上市

New Solar Signals: Slowdown Easing Amid Writedowns 太阳能企业减计库存 行业或将开始摆脱危机

The latest signals from embattled solar panel makers indicate the sector’s worst-ever downturn could be starting to ease, even as China turns up the rhetoric in a growing war of words over dumping accusations by Western manufacturers. Both Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) and Renesola (NYSE: SOL) have released updated guidance ahead of their official third-quarter announcements and the word, while downbeat, appears to show some signs that the crisis has bottomed out. Both firms lowered their margin outlook by moderate amounts, and both also lowered their third-quarter shipment targets, but again only by small to moderate amounts. (Canadian Solar announcement; Renesola announcement) But perhaps more significantly, both firms took big write-downs for unsold inventory, with Renesola writing down $20 million and Canadian Solar writing off about twice that amount. As a result, Renesola said it will post a $8 million loss for the third quarter.  These write-downs follow a similar write-down announced last week by Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) (previous post), which gave similar lowered guidance as well. (previous post) In my view these write-downs look relatively significant, as one wouldn’t expect to see companies take such write-downs unless they were fairly confident the worst of the downturn was over, as most prefer to take this kind of charge all at once rather than repeatedly in smaller amounts over a longer period. Renesola itself sounded a slightly upbeat note, saying it expected more gloom in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2012, but that things could improve after that. Meantime, China made a significant gesture in response to allegations that it unfairly subsidies its solar panel makers, with a major state-run firm announcing it was suspending plans to build $500 million worth of solar energy plants in the US due to uncertainty about potential new punitive tariffs against China solar panel makers. (English article) Indeed, such a plan would become uneconomical if the US imposes punitive tariffs, as the Chinese builder was planning to use Chinese-built solar cells for this series of plants which would suddenly become much more expensive under new tariffs. I still think the US is likely to levy these tariffs due to election-year politics, but clearly this kind of tactic by the Chinese may make some US policymakers think twice about such actions.

Bottom line: New guidance from 2 major solar players appear to show an easing of the industry’s crisis, as the war of words heats up in the US-China solar trade dispute.

Related postings 相关文章:

More Solar Gloom From Trina

Solar Fight Sees Accusations Flying 中美太阳能纠纷引发口水大战

China Solars Brace for Icy 2012 With US Trade Complaint 中国太阳能产业需直面美欧关税壁垒

News Digest: November 8, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on November 8. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Lashou, China’s Top Daily-Deal Website, May Abandon Groupon Model – Report (English article)

◙ CNOOC’s (HKEX: 883) $7.1 Bln Purchase of BP’s Argentine Unit Scrapped; Shares Drop (English article)

◙ Yingli Green Energy Updates Q3 Guidance (PRNewswire)

◙ Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) Issues Statement on Solar Trade Petition (PRNewswire)

◙ ReneSola Announces Updates to Q3 (PRNewswire)

Pepsi’s New China Shot Ignores Bigger Issues 百事联手康师傅抢占中国市场

After years of playing perennial number-two to Coke (NYSE: KU), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) is gearing up for another shot at the China market through a new tie-up with instant noodle juggernaut Tingyi (HKEx: 322). The deal looks interesting on paper, though Pepsi will need to address the much more fundamental issue of its pathetic marketing in China if it really wants to improve its fortunes in what will soon become the world’s top beverage market. Let’s look at the deal first. Under the agreement, Pepsi will hand over its China bottling operations to Tingyi in exchange for a small stake in the company’s drinks joint venture with Japan’s Asahi (Tokyo: 2502). (English article). The deal not only gives over Pepsi’s money-losing bottling operation to a more seasoned operator, whose Masterkong brand is practically synonymous with instant noodles in China, but also gives Pepsi an important new local partner that better understands the market and whose highly developed sales channels will also be a valuable new resource. But rather than celebrate too much, Pepsi needs to address the much more fundamental issue of marketing. Despite its enviable position as sole soft drink supplier to KFC, easily China’s leading fast food operator, Pepsi’s name remains a relative unknown in China to date due to lack of effective marketing. Its main juice drink product, branded under the Tropicana name, is also a relative unknown. By comparison, Coke invented the word “cola” in China, and its Minute Maid Pulpy brand orange juice drink developed just for the market is the company’s first $1 billion brand developed outside its home US market. Pepsi needs to grasp the importance of marketing in China and use campaigns like those used by Coke, KFC and McDonalds (NYSE: MCD) to bring more excitement to its brands  in the market. Otherwise, this latest tie-up with Tingyi could end up as hollow as an empty bowl of noodles.

Bottom line: Pepsi’s new tie-up with China’s top noodle maker won’t help its lackluster performance unless it steps up its marketing efforts.

Related postings 相关文章:

Coke’s China Formula: A Pulpy and a Smile 可口可乐入乡随俗显成效

Growth-Hungry McDonalds Explores Risky Franchising Route

Yum Feasts on China, Still Eying Little Sheep 百胜依然觊觎小肥羊

 

China Mobile’s TD 3G Fading Fast 中国移动3G网络前景黯淡

China Mobile’s (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) brief chance to generate excitement for its struggling 3G network based on a homegrown technology is rapidly disappearing, with even the networking equipment sellers who once saw big bucks in the technology known as TD-SCDMA now starting to abandon the standard. Chinese media are reporting that the latest round of contracts to expand China Mobile’s struggling 3G network received only lukewarm response from equipment suppliers, who have quietly started raising their prices to help build a network based on the problematic technology. (English article) The reports aren’t much more specific, but the general tone suggests the equipment suppliers, whose ranks include domestic names like Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 0763; Shenzhen: 000063), as well as global names like Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALUA), are finally realizing their TD-SCDMA products will have little or no market outside China, even as they spend big money to address problems with the technology that doesn’t have any users besides China Mobile. Similar realizations by Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) were likely a major factor behind reports last week that its sputtering talks to create an TD-SCDMA iPhone had finally broken down, in another major setback for China Mobile and its 3G network. (previous post) China Mobile has steadily lost share in China’s 3G market due to its poor technology and equally poor roll out of the network, reflecting lack of focus at the company as it prepares for a major leadership change with the upcoming retirement of long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou. This latest development seems to indicate that trend will continue for a while still, with China Mobile’s share of the 3G market  — which has already slipped to 42 percent from 45 percent at the beginning of the year – likely to slip further still to a third or even less over the next couple of years.

Bottom line: A cool response by equipment suppliers to China Mobile’s latest 3G network expansion reflects ongoing problems with a network whose share could soon dip below a third.

Related postings 相关文章:

China Mobile: Poor 3G Approach Yields Weak Results 中移动3G策略不当 拖累公司三季度业绩

TD-LTE Hits First Delay, More to Come? TD-LTE技术首次延期 未来还会更多?

China Mobile Shuffle: Sea Change Coming? 中移动高层变动或引发重大变化?

News Digest: November 5-7, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on November 5-7. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) Sells China Bottling Assets to Tingyi (HKEx: 322) (English article)

Alibaba, Tencent (HKEx: 700), Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) in Land Grab (Chinese article)

China Mobile (HKEx: 941) TD-SCDMA Procurement Bids Rise – Source (English article)

Sinopec (HKEx: 386), PetroChina (HKEx: 857) Up on Fuel-Pricing Change Speculation (English article)

UCWeb Sues Tencent (HKEx: 700) For Unfair Competition (Chinese article)

New Lawsuit Has Potential to Bite Baidu 百度或因新侵权诉讼案“受伤

I’ve been a regular critic of China’s legal system from a business perspective, as it does little or nothing to protect copyrights and intellectual property rights due to its ridiculously low fines that have little or no deterrent effect. That said, the latest copyright lawsuit filed against Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) actually looks quite interesting, but not because of the legal implications. Chinese media are reporting the suit against the literature site operated by China’s leading search engine was filed by 4 prominent writers, including the wildly popular blogger Han Han and authors Hao Qun and Han Ailian. (Chinese article) It demands that works by the 4 be removed from the Baidu Literature site immediately and seeks unspecified damages. On the surface, this suit looks like a much broader one filed against Baidu several months ago by a bigger group of lesser known authors for the same reason. (previous post) That suit briefly made headlines, but disappeared just as quickly as the public and media lost interest. I have no doubt that any damages against Baidu resulting from this new lawsuit will be meaningless. But the big difference here is that the 4 plaintiffs this time are very influential writers, including Han Han, whose blog has millions of followers and thus could mount a very damaging, long-term campaign against Baidu if they choose. If Baidu is smart, it will quickly settle this lawsuit to placate these plaintiffs. Even if it does that, it could face some serious negative PR from this lawsuit in general, damaging its reputation for a public already skeptical about many of its less-than-transparent practices in displaying its paid search results, which have also come under criticism.

Bottom line: A new lawsuit by 4 prominent writers against Baidu could result in a major negative campaign against the company, which should try to settle the case as soon as possible.

Related postings 相关文章:

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆,寻求多元化

After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

Price Wars Beat Up Online Retailers 网上零售商引爆价格战

Barely a day has passed these last few weeks without a report in the Chinese media about the latest price wars between major online retailers, reflecting rampant competition that is causing companies to hemorrhage cash. Two of the biggest rivals in the never-ending wars are Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) and 360Buy, also known as Jingdong Mall, with Dangdang reportedly preparing to turn up the heat with a major new offensive. According to domestic media, Dangdang is preparing to launch a major new campaign against 360Buy, extending a current drive that already specifically undercuts prices for popular items on 360Buy by significant amounts. (English article) For its part, 360Buy is also offering a near non-stop stream of promotions that have been so popular that an unusually high volume of shoppers caused its site to crash earlier this week, forcing the company to install more servers. (Chinese article) While such a high volume of shoppers would normally be good news, the business disruption will hardly help 360Buy’s reputation. Furthermore, the new servers will only add to the company’s costs, and I suspect many of the goods that attracted such attention in the first place were being sold at a loss. If the competition remains this rampant, look for a cash-hungry 360Buy to potentially try to accelerate its stalled plan for a multibillion-dollar IPO to raise more cash (previous post), and for Dangdang, which already reported a widening loss in the second quarter, to see its losses widen even further going forward.

Bottom line: Chinese online merchants engaged in non-stop price wars are facing a cash crunch that could soon result in consolidation for the overheated sector.

Related postings 相关文章:

New Regulatory, Competitive Waves Hit E-Commerce 监管和竞争冲击电子商务领域

Amazon Name Shift Signals China Ramp-Up 亚马逊改名背后折射中国野心

Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

More Solar Gloom From Trina

The latest signals from China’s struggling solar sector are decidedly downbeat, with Trina (NYSE: TSL) sharply lowering its previous guidance and taking a big inventory write-off. The company dropped its third-quarter shipment guidance by a hefty 25 percent, and lowered its overall gross margin forecast by more than 50 percent as the industry’s worst-ever downturn continued to take its toll. (company announcement) It also lowered its full-year output target by more than 20 percent. Interestingly, the huge margin shortfall, combined with a $19 million inventory write-down in the announcement, may actually be good news, as I suspect these two elements are directly related to the July resignation of the chairman of Trina’s audit committee, which could have hinted at a much bigger accounting scandal. (previous post) Trina’s shares fell a relatively mild 3 percent on Wall Street on Thursday, probably partly due to relief that no accounting scandal was imminent. Look for more similar write-downs by other Chinese solar players when they start to report their results later this month, beginning with Trina on November 21, followed the next day by Suntech (NYSE: STP). The news wasn’t all bad, as Trina was also guardedly optimistic about the future, saying it was seeing more signs of demand from emerging markets to offset a slump in US and Western Europe that have been the industry’s biggest markets to date. On the emerging markets front, Beijing should taking the lead to help the struggling solar sector that it has so carefully nurtured over the last 5 years, and indeed it has made a number of moves that indicate a big new wave of solar energy plant construction could soon begin in China. It should try to accelerate that pace to save its industry from further pain, which could grow worse as the US considers an anti-dumping complaint by US solar firms against their Chinese rivals. (previous post)

Bottom line: The latest guidance from Trina Solar reflects an industry still in the throes of a massive downturn, with no meaningful relief in sight.

Related postings 相关文章:

Solar Fight Sees Accusations Flying 中美太阳能纠纷引发口水大战

More Solar Woes With Plunging Prices

Tech, Environmental Issues Cast New Clouds Over Solar Firms

News Digest: November 4, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on November 4. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ 4 Famous Writers, Including Han Han, Sue Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) For Copyright Theft (Chinese article)

Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) Reportedly Planning New Price War against 360Buy (English article)

Gap (NYSE: GPS) Sees China Becoming Billion-Dollar Business in 3-4 Years (English article)

Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) Announces Updates to Q3 Guidance (PRNewswire)

Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD), Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) Deliver Feature Phone App Store (PRNewswire)

ZTE Faces More Profit Erosion With Latest Low-Cost Moves 中兴通讯以低价机抢占市场恐损及获利

ZTE’s (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) latest strategy of flooding the world with low-cost cellphones appears to be working, as the first phase of the its risky bid to become a global brand yields results. According to the latest information from IT data tracking firm IDC, ZTE zoomed past Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) to become the world’s fourth biggest cellphone seller in the third quarter of the year, shipping more than 19 million handsets to take nearly 5 percent of the global market. (English article) ZTE has previously stated its aim of becoming one of the world’s top 3 cellphone brands, relying in part on a strategy of grabbing market share by selling low-end smarphones powered by Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android system for $100 or less for little or no profit. That strategy has showed up in ZTE’s results in the last 2 quarters, with profit dropping steadily even as cellphone revenue has soared. The strategy is a very risky one, as it’s often very difficult to raise your prices and corporate image after establishing yourself as a maker of low-cost products. Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) learned this lesson about a decade ago, and is now learning it again. But for at least the next year or two, look for ZTE to steadily increase its global cellphone market share, even as its profits continue to erode. In a separate development along similar lines, Brazilian media are reporting that ZTE is preparing another major new initiative in contract manufacturing, opening a new factory in that country that has landed Apple itself as one of its first customers. (Chinese article) The reports are quite brief, but say that ZTE will assemble both iPads and iPhones for Apple in the city of Hortolandia, putting it in direct competition with Taiwanese OEM giant Foxconn (HKEx: 2038), which has also opened a plant in the same city. To this development I say: congratulations to ZTE for winning this prestigious business from Apple, if the reports are true. But at the same time, I suspect ZTE will be assembling the Apple products for little or no profit and most likely at a loss, meaning we could see its bottom line erode even more quickly.

Bottom line: ZTE’s latest aggressive moves to generate new business will erode its profits for the next 2 years at least, with only a 50-50 chance for long-term success.

Related postings 相关文章:

Baidu, ZTE Earnings: More of the Same 百度和中兴财报:看上去没变化

Ericsson, ZTE Spat May be Near Resolution 爱立信与中兴的官司尘埃落定?

Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想