Baidu, Sohu Highlight China Shell Games 百度搜狐拆分业务让金融骗局再度受关注

When was the last time you saw Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) or Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) spin off one of its units into a separately listed company or inject assets from its parent company into a listed unit? The answer of course is that they never engage in any of these common practices of big China state-run companies, but that hasn’t stopped the country’s booming private Internet sector from becoming increasing masters at such games. The latest machinations in these games have seen Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) sell its online game information site, 17173.com, to its separately listed online game unit, Changyou (Nasdaq: CYOU) for a nifty $162 million (English article; Chinese article), while search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is spinning off its struggling e-commerce site YouA into an independent company complete with its own venture funding. (English article) Of course, the granddaddy of this kind of shell game is Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA), which listed on the Nasdaq many years ago, then spun off its core online game business into a separately listed company, Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME), and is now in the process of trying to spin off its  online literature unit into yet another public company, Cloudary, even as Shanda Interactive itself attempts to de-list as its share price languishes. (previous post) Leading web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has also engaged in this kind of financial shell game. This situation has evolved in part because many of China’s Internet companies often stray from their core business into completely unrelated areas — a practice seldom seen at major Western firms. But from an investor perspective, this kind of game results in a lack of transparency, as parent companies can often manipulate situations to make results of these spun-off companies appear on their own balance sheets if the results are positive, and then magically disappear if the business is performing poorly. Shares of Chinese web firms are currently mostly the playthings of speculative short-term investors; but if these companies ever want to be taken seriously by longer-term institutional buyers, this kind of game playing is one of the first things that needs to stop.

Bottom line: The latest spin-offs by Baidu and Sohu cast a spotlight on China web firms’ fondness for financial shell games, which will continue to scare off long-term institutional investors.

Related postings 相关文章:

Shanda Moves Ahead With Privatization 投资者对盛大私有化仍持保留态度

Shanda Plays Games With Big Dividend 盛大游戏寄望高额分红计划提振股价

Sina’s Weibo: Growth Engine or Growing Burden? 新浪微博:动力or负担?

News Digest: December 1, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on December 1. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ China Cuts Bank Reserves in Policy Shift To Lift Economy (English article)

Alibaba-Led Group Said to Prepare Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) Bid (English article)

Changyou (Nasdaq: CYOU) to Buy Game Info Portal 17173.com from Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) (English article)

Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) YouA Spins Off, Receives Eight-Figure USD Funding (English article)

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) Announces Plan to Issue RMB3,000,000,000 Notes (PRNewswire)

Mid-Sized Firms Suffer First In Internet Bubble Burst 中国互联网泡沫破裂

Malaise continues to inflict the overheated Chinese Internet realm, with veteran new media firm Kongzhong (Nasdaq: KONG) falling into the loss column and newly listed children’s website Taomee (Nasdaq: TAOM) reporting a shrinking profit, as both fell victim to stiff competition. I won’t go too much into the reports of these two companies, but Kongzhong reported a $17 million loss, compared with a profit a year earlier, as its Internet games business saw an especially sharp drop. (company announcement) Likewise, Taomee, whose shares have lost about half their value since its June IPO, saw its third-quarter profit shrivel by about a third as it opted to focus on customer loyalty over profits. (company announcement) Meantime, Chinese media are reporting that another small firm, online shoe retailer Letao, has slashed its marketing budget by 80 percent as competition erodes its bottom line as well. (English article) What all this tells me is that China’s long-awaited Internet bubble is finally starting to burst, as these kinds of small- to mid-sized companies are typically the first to feel the pinch when a correction starts to hit an overheated sector like this. By comparison, bigger companies like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) continue to report relatively healthy growth in both sales and profits, though even they are seeing profits come under pressure amid rising costs in the face of fierce competition. Look for more suffering among mid-sized Internet firms like Taomee and Kongzhong in the months ahead, with many likely to get purchased, merge with similar-sized rivals or simply go out of business in the next 12-18 months. In a rare piece of good news from the space, faded new media firm Linktone (Nasdaq: LTON) has announced that it escaped a potential de-listing by managing to get its stock price above the $1 threshold demanded by the Nasdaq. (English article) Indeed, the company’s shares have been above $1 for 15 days now, though such an accomplishment is hardly cause of celebration for a company whose shares have mostly moved lower in its turbulent history as a publicly traded company.

Bottom line: The latest gloom from Kongzhong, Taomee and Letao show mid-sized Internet firms are suffering as China’s Internet bubble starts to burst, with bigger pain ahead in the next 12-18 months.

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Parade of China Money-Losers Report to Wall Street 多家中国企业亏损凸显市场竞争激烈

Renren Finds Video Bargain in China Web Bubble 人人网低价收购56网 凸显中国互联网困境

More Internet Froth in Alibaba Valuation, Dangdang Price War 阿里巴巴估值奇高凸显网络泡沫

Video Makers On Cusp of Renaissance 视频制作商或迎来美好时代

I’ll take a break now from all the Internet turmoil to take a look at an area that’s showing much more promise these days, namely the sector that makes video content for TV stations and increasingly Internet video sites. In fact, I’ve already talked about the big potential for this space on several occasions, following landmark licensing agreements this year between some of the major Hollywood studios and leading video sites operated by Youku (NYSE: YOKU), Tudou (Nasaq: TUDO) and Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU). (previous post) But now the China Daily has published an article showing just how well the video production industry is doing, with prices for TV shows and movies soaring in the last 5 years. (English article) According to the article, individual episodes for popular TV shows can now fetch up to 1 million yuan each, or about $150,000,  compared with just several thousand yuan per episode just 5 years ago. The article cites a recent instance that shows how hot the market has become, with Sohu recently paying 30 million yuan for nearly 100 episodes of the hit TV series “New Princess Pearl”, or about 300,000 yuan per episode. As a veteran reporter on the China media scene, I remember the old days when TV show and movie makers complained that it was impossible to earn any money in the Chinese market, where individual media giants held monopolies in all major cities and thus could demand ridiculously low prices from programmers because they had no competitors. What a difference 5 years makes. Of course, for the investor the big issue is that most of the programmers aren’t publicly traded, though a handful like Huayi Brothers (Shenzhen: 300027) are well positioned to capitalize on the boom. I expect we’ll see a lot more of these companies go public in the near future as business soars. But that said, the popular saying “what goes up must come down” is probably true here also. Put simply, this spending frenzy by the video companies is probably unsustainable over the longer term, simply because there aren’t enough advertising dollars to support such rapid growth and it will also take time for Chinese consumers to gradually get used to the idea of paying for such online content.

Bottom line: Booming demand for video content is likely to spark a renaissance for movie and TV program makers, though a correction for the sector is also likely in the next 2-3 years.

Related postings 相关文章:

Sohu’s Blowout Earnings: IPO In Store for Video? 搜狐发喜报视频业务或上市

Tudou Surprises With Profit, Licensing Deal 土豆网意外扭亏为盈视频分享市场的好兆头

PPLive, Phoenix Video Initiatives Offer News Alternative 凤凰新媒体与PPLive的新尝试

Rumor Mongers Seize on Crisis With Sina Attack

You know things are getting bad when the short sellers seizing on the the confidence crisis for US-listed China stocks themselves come under attack, which was the case with a recent rumor that short seller Muddy Waters was preparing an assault on leading web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA). (Chinese article) The rumors have certainly taken their toll, with Sina shares losing more than a third of their value in the last 3 weeks, even as Muddy Waters — in a rare case where it commented on its activities — denied it was preparing such an attack. In a way, this looks a bit like the perfect storm of factors working against Sina. In early November the company reported third-quarter results that were quite disappointing, including massive write-downs for its e-commerce and real estate initiatives that revealed its attempts to diversify beyond its core portal business were largely flopping. (previous post) Later in the month, Muddy Waters itself launched another very real attack on Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN), questioning some of the company’s claims about its reach, causing Focus shares to plummet despite vigorous denials by the company. (previous post) Making the entire situation worse, some of Sina’s rivals, which I will decline to name specifically, happily helped to spread the rumors about an imminent Muddy Waters attack, pointing out on an almost daily basis how Sina’s stock was sinking fast and reaching new lows. Of course, all this comes against the backdrop of a broader confidence crisis for US-listed China stocks, which began with a short seller report earlier in the year calling into question the accounting of Longtop Financial, which ultimately resulted in the de-listing of a company that formerly had a market cap in the billions of dollars. At the end of all this, Sina’s shares have now lost more than half of their value from their highs back in April and May, when the company was riding high on hopes for its incredibly popular Weibo microblogging service. If you’re a big believer in Weibo, now might be the perfect time to buy into Sina, as I doubt its stock can sink too much lower in this perfect storm of bad news.

Bottom line: A weak earnings report and rumors of a short seller attack have beaten down Sina shares, which are unlikely to sink much lower in this perfect storm of negative news.

Related postings 相关文章:

Sina Results: Not So Diversified After All 新浪仍依赖广告,突围遇阻

Short Sellers Target China in Year End Assault 做空抛盘年底将矛头对准在美上市中国企业

Sina’s Weibo: Growth Engine or Growing Burden? 新浪微博:动力or负担?

News Digest: November 30, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on November 30. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN) Comes Under Renewed Attack From Muddy Waters (Chinese article)

◙ China Solar Executives Aim To Avoid Trade War With US (English article)

◙ Letao Cuts Ad Spend by 80% (English article)

◙ Chinese Solar-Panel Makers Seen Shrinking to 15 in 5 Years on Supply Glut (English article)

◙ Kongzhong (Nasdaq: KONG) Swings to Q3 Loss of $17.26 Million (Chinese article)

E-House, Blackstone Moves Auger Real Estate Rebound 中国房地产市场可能接近底部

There’s a couple of interesting news bits coming from the struggling real estate sector, which indicate its current downturn could be nearing a bottom and that better days may be on the horizon in the next year or two. One of those bits is seeing E-House (NYSE: EJ), one of China’s top real estate services providers, taking control of the China franchise of major US home seller Century 21 (NYSE: CTC); while the other is seeing several major players, including Blackstone (NYSE: BX) and China’s sovereign wealth fund, setting up a real estate financing joint venture. Let’s start with the E-House deal, which is seeing the Chinese firm take a 58 percent stake in Century 21 China for a relatively modest $25 million. This deal is clearly being driven by a weak real estate market that has seen transaction volumes plummet as China takes steps to cool the market, driving E-House into the red in its latest quarter (company announcement) and leaving transaction-driven brokerages like Century 21 also struggling. This deal comes as E-House attempts to buy out China Real Estate Investment Corp (Nasdaq: CRIC), its joint venture with Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) (company announcement), and is the latest sign of consolidation as the real estate services industry struggles for survival. The moves look like good ones for E-House, and should leave it well positioned to be a true industry leader when the current downturn ends. The second news bit is seeing Blackstone, China Investment Corp (CIC) and domestic real estate developer Greentown (HKEx: 3900) in talks to set up a real estate finance joint venture with 2 billion yuan, or about $300 million, in registered capital, with CIC holding 60 percent. (English article) Establishment of this venture is yet another sign that the big players like CIC and Blackstone see the current downturn ending in the next 1-2 years, as that’s the earliest we might see any of their new projects come to market. With many of the country’s real estate developers now facing a cash crunch in the current downturn, demand should be strong for this kind of financing in the next 1-2 years, boding well for the venture.

Bottom line: A big acquisition by E-House and a major new real estate financing joint venture are signs that China’s real estate downturn is near bottom.

Related postings 相关文章:

Soufun Shores Up Foundation With Strong Results, Outlook 搜房网靓丽财报和前景或预示房产业向好

Real Estate Relief Coming With Foshan Reversal 佛山放宽限购政策的启示

Sina Results: Not So Diversified After All 新浪仍依赖广告,突围遇阻

Shanda Plays Games With Big Dividend 盛大游戏寄望高额分红计划提振股价

Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) head honcho Chen Tianqiao, lacking any major news to boost languishing shares prices of his 2 public companies, is resorting to playing games to lift their stocks, first through a privatization plan for one and now with a massive special dividend for the other, Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME). (company announcement) The only problem is, another online game operator, Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) tried a similar plan earlier this year with mostly disappointing results. So let’s have a look at Shanda Games’ new plan, which will see it offer a one-time cash dividend of $1.02 per American Depositary Share (ADS) on December 20, translating to roughly a 25 percent payout based on its price of about $4 when the announcement came out. Shanda shares jumped just $0.43 per share, or around 11 percent, after the announcement came out, or less than half the amount of the special dividend, indicating investors think the company’s share price may already be overvalued. Chen’s ploy looks especially risky in light of Giant’s experience earlier this year, when it offered a massive special dividend that amounted to 40 percent of its share price at the time. (previous post) Giant shares jumped a little after the announcement, though nowhere near the amount of the special dividend, but then crashed after the actual payout and now trade nearly 20 percent below their levels when it first announced the dividend. There’s no reason to believe that Shanda Games’ dividend won’t see a similar outcome, with investors boosting the stock to collect the one-time payout and then quickly selling it once the dividend passes. Of course this new move from Chen comes just a week after he launched a bid to privatize his other listed company, Shanda Interactive, whose shares are also in the doldrums along with those of many other US-listed China stocks. (previous post) Instead of playing these kinds of deal-making games, Chen needs to sit down and create an exciting roadmap for his companies to convince investors they have strong long-term growth potential, which will do much more to boost their share prices.

Bottom line: Shanda Games’ new offer of a large one-time dividend is the latest bid by founder Chen Tianqiao to boost the company, but is ultimately bound to disappoint.

Related postings 相关文章:

Shanda Moves Ahead With Privatization 投资者对盛大私有化仍持保留态度

Giant Fires CFO, Offers Dividend to Placate Investors 巨人网络CFO辞职 高额分红以安抚投资者

Grentech Follows Shanda in Privatization Ploy 国人通信赴盛大网络後尘宣布私有化

Microsoft Looks for Place in China Cloud 微软投身中国云计算大潮

China is clearly excited about the prospect of cloud computing, as evidenced by the steady stream of big names like Alibaba, Huawei and Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) that have announced initiatives in the space this year. Now even Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) is trying to get in on the act, announcing a major new cloud computing campaign for China. Whether any of these initiatives will ultimately work is another question, however, as China has yet to prove that it can lead in any major new technology like this. First let’s look at Microsoft’s latest initiative, which will see it build a cloud platform and trading center in the interior city of Chongqing. (English article) This comes just days after Chinese media also reported the NDRC, China’s state planner, had reportedly distributed about $100 million in subsidies for cloud-based initiatives. (English article) Since foreign companies are usually banned from investing in telecoms infrastructure like the kind necessary for cloud computing, Microsoft’s move looks designed to try and cash in on the trend from another angle, in this case from R&D that should enable it to work with other infrastructure developers. Huawei said earlier this year it was also holding out big hopes for the cloud (previous post), and Alibaba is placing a big bet on the technology through its Alicloud unit. With so much state support and some of the country’s biggest tech names behind this cloud push, perhaps one or two companies may eventually find a bit of success in the space, especially if they can team with big foreign names like Microsoft that have stronger technology. But as China has often shown in the past, it takes more than money and state directives to become a leader in a complex new area like the cloud, and I suspect that many of these initiatives will ultimately end up as failures, as major Western players ultimately develop the technology that takes cloud computing from the laboratory to the real world.

Bottom line: China’s aim to be a leader in cloud computing will produce lackluster to poor results due to its lack of experience in commercializing new technologies.

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Growth-Addicted Huawei Looks to the Cloud 华为渴求增长上瘾 着眼云计算

Shanda’s New Deal: Spinning Off Literature 盛大文学拟分拆上市

Shanda Cloudary Returns to Market, Worth a Look

News Digest: November 29, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on November 29. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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Chow Tai Fook Seeks $2.8 Billion in Hong Kong Initial Offering, Terms Say (English article)

E-House (NYSE: EJ) to Invest in Century 21 China Real Estate, Become Largest Shareholder (PRNewswire)

Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) Announces Special Cash Dividend (PRNewswire)

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) to Build Cloud Platform, Training Center in Chongqing (English article)

CNOOC Ltd (HKEx: 883) Completed Acquisition of OPTI (PRNewswire)

Gap’s China Plan: Chasing the Middle End Gap锁定中国中产阶层

US retailer Gap (NYSE: GPS) is bringing its formula for selling cheap but trendy clothing to mainstream young Chinese, with a plan that looks like a smart way to tap the nation’s growing urban middle class despite its late arrival to the market. Executives from the US chain, an early pioneer in the trendy, affordable clothing business whose image has become a bit faded lately, detailed their China plans during a trip to the region late last week for the opening of their first Hong Kong store. (company announcement; English article) According to reports from the event, the company plans to have 15 stores in China by the end of its current fiscal year, and then to triple the number to 45 within a year of that. Frankly speaking, the company’s arrival to China is a bit late, as big foreign names like Japan’s Uniqlo (Tokyo: 9983), Hong Kong’s Esprit (HKEx: 330) and Sweden’s Hennes & Mauritz (Stockholm: HMb) have all operated in the market for several years now. But that said, all these foreign chains do quite well in China, and their stores are often packed on weekends with eager young urban shoppers eager to spend their hard-earned savings on the latest trendy but affordable clothes that these companies all offer. I see no reason why another big name like Gap can’t survive in this market, especially if it can find the right clothing mix and create a marketing campaign to establish itself as a trendy fashionable brand with strong overseas roots. Of course, that might be easier said than done, as Gap’s image in the US has faded quite a bit in recent years as the brand ages and younger, trendier chains like H&M take a bigger slice of the market. Still, if General Motors (NYSE: GM) can take a nameplate like Buick, considered a stodgy older brand in the US, and make it into a popular mainstream name in China, then there’s no reason why Gap can’t draw on its years of experience to do the same thing in China, potentially building the market into one of its top global contributors in the next 10 years.

Bottom line: Gap’s entry to China, despite its lateness, could stand a good chance of success, catering to young Chinese with limited funds but who still want to buy the latest trendy clothes.

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Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

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