BYD Gets Back to Basics

After a year of hyping its electric vehicle (EV) initiatives even as sales of its traditional cars plunged, BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594) is finally waking up to the reality that it needs to focus on the present as much as the future by trumpeting early success of some of its newest gasoline-powered vehicles. The company’s shares soared eightfold in 2009 after billionaire investor Warren Buffett bought a 10 percent stake, presumably betting on BYD’s big gamble on electric powered cars. But since then its fortunes have faded considerably, with the company’s sales of traditional cars tumbling about 15 percent last year due to lack of exciting new models even as the rest of the market eked out modest growth. In the process, BYD’s shares also took a beating, losing as much as three-quarters of their value last year before bouncing back a bit over the last 2 months. Some of that bounce-back is no doubt due to a broader year-end market rally, but perhaps some is also due to guarded optimism over early success that the company is trumpeting for recently launched SUV and high-end sedan models, where BYD is competing mostly with major foreign automakers. BYD says that its G6 high-end sedan launched 4 months ago zoomed to a strong but still relatively modest 5,100 units in December, and predicted 10,000 in monthly sales for the near future. (company announcement) It also said its self-developed SUV sold 15,000 units in December, as sales of the model that went on sale last spring also accelerated toward the end of the year. (company announcement) I do find it a bit ironic that a company that is betting its future on energy saving EVs is trying to salvage its present by focusing on gas guzzling vehicles like SUVs and high-end sedans. But that said, I do have to finally applaud BYD for waking up to the reality that it needs to develop a steady stream of traditional gasoline-burning vehicles to remain a healthy company over the next few years as it promotes its longer-term electric vehicles. These early sales figures for its SUV and high-end sedan look promising, though they are still relatively modest. But if the trends continue, look for BYD’s market share, and quite possibly its stock, to regain some of its previous luster in 2012.

Bottom line: BYD could gain back some of the market share it lost in 2011 fueled by new higher-end vehicles that are showing early strong sales.

Related postings 相关文章:

BYD’s New EV Plan: Hook Them With Investment 比亚迪拉美电动车之路堪忧

Cars: US, Germany Clobber Japan, Domestic Rivals 美德汽车在华完胜日本和中国车商

China Slams the Brakes on Automakers 中国为汽车行业踩刹车

Banks to Lend More, But to Whom? 银行获准增加放贷 但流向选择有限

Chinese banks are fast becoming a group of financial contradictions, rushing to implement the latest government financial directives even when doing so makes little or no commercial sense, once again spotlighting the big risk that investors take by buying into these companies. The latest twist in China’s ongoing banking saga has central planners suddenly loosening their grip on the nation’s lenders, which were under strict orders last year to curb their new loans to help Beijing cool an overheated economy. But following a GDP report earlier this week that saw growth slip to a 2 year low of 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter, central planners are deciding that perhaps banks should lend a little more to make sure the economy doesn’t cool too much. Separate media reports are saying that Beijing has suddenly decided that top banks, including names like ICBC (HKEx: 1389; Shanghai: 601398) and China Construction Bank (HKEx: 939; Shanghai: 601939), can increase their lending by up to 5 percent this quarter (English article), and that the banking regulator may also loosen capital requirements. (English article) Both of these moves are clearly designed to pump more money into the economy to spur growth, much the way Beijing did at the height of the global financial crisis when traditional economic engines like exports and foreign investment dropped off sharply. The only problem this time is that while Beijing has given the green light for banks to lend more, it isn’t giving them very many options about where they can make those new loans. Two of the biggest traditional sources of new loans, real estate mortgages and government infrastructure, both remain off-limits for banks, as Beijing tries to cool the overpriced home market and worries about the potential for massive defaults on a huge jump in loans made to local governments for new infrastructure during the global slowdown. Lending to small and medium sized enterprises also looks unlikely to grow much soon, as corporate lending by the big banks typically goes to big state-owned enterprises. With all those lending channels closed or inaccessible, one of the few remaining outlets is the stock market, as another major source of loans is for individuals and companies that use the funds to bet on the stock market. So we could potentially see the stock market get a lift from this latest Beijing banking directive, though that kind of boost hardly seems healthy or natural, and could lead to even more problems in the form of more bad loans if the stock market rally is short-lived.

Bottom line: China’s banks are fast becoming schizophrenic lenders intent on implementing Beijing’s latest directives, leading them to policies that make little or no commercial sense.

Related postings 相关文章:

2012: Capitial Raising II Year For China Banks 2012:中国银行业的又一个融资年

Ping An Returns to Market With Second Big Fund Request 中国平安拟发大规模可转债

Beijing’s Financial Shufflle: Bankers or Regulators? 中国金融高层“大换血”

 

News Digest: January 19, 2012

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on January 19. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ China Said to Let Biggest Banks Boost Lending This Quarter to Spur Growth (English article)

American Express (NYSE: AXP) Partners with Chinese Mobile Top-Up Provider Lianlian (Businesswire)

CNOOC (HKEx: 883) Announces Its 2012 Business Strategy and Development Plan (PRNewswire)

◙ China Accounts for 32% of Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) Revenue (English article)

Alibaba, Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) Talks Advance, Buyout Possible By Mid-Feb – Report (Chinese article)

Yang Departure Cuts Final Yahoo-Alibaba Ties 雅虎即将与阿里撇清关系

If Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) was looking for a way to tell the world that its troubled relationship with Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group was nearing an end, then the just-announced resignation of Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang from all his posts at both companies looks like the perfect and very appropriate signal. Yang’s resignation means he will relinquish his positions as a director on the boards of both Yahoo and Alibaba, marking a quiet end to a stormy chapter in both companies’ history. (English article) Yang and Alibaba founder Jack Ma made headlines in 2005 when they announced that Yahoo would buy 40 percent of Alibaba for $1 billion to create a potent partnership that would combine Alibaba’s expertise in e-commerce with Yahoo’s in online search. But it soon became clear that Jack Ma was more interested in Yahoo’s money than anything Yang or his company had to offer in terms of advice — a reality that was fine with both sides as Yang focused on trying to rebuild Yahoo’s core US-focused business as it rapidly lost share to a more nimble Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). All that changed when Yang resigned as Yahoo CEO and yielded the job to Carol Bartz, an executive whose aggressive style clashed with Ma’s own similar style and led to a prolonged period of tense relations between the 2 companies. Through all of that, Yang, who remained as a non-executive board member of Yahoo, continued to maintain personal ties with Alibaba, getting invitations and often attending the Chinese company’s Alifest big annual conference in its hometown of Hangzhou. Yang’s resignation from both the Alibaba and Yahoo boards comes just 2 weeks after Yahoo named Scott Thompson as its new CEO, filling the position that has been vacant since Bartz was fired last year. I suspect the departure was a condition when Thompson agreed to take the job, aimed at giving him a clear mandate to run the company with a fresh start. Alibaba and its bankers have been sending a nonstop series of signals to the market that they have raised enough money to buy out Yahoo’s 40 percent Alibaba stake, and Yang’s departure should remove the final reminder of the forces behind the original tie-up that can let this much-needed divorce finally go forward. When that happens, which could be in the next 2 months, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Yang suddenly appear in Alibaba, either as an investor or perhaps even an executive in one of the company’s units.

Bottom line: Jerry Yang’s resignation from the boards of Yahoo and Alibaba signal a pending divorce of the 2 companies, which could see Yang ultimately end up as an investor or executive at Alibaba.

Related postings 相关文章:

Yahoo, Alibaba Dance Nears Finale  雅虎应与阿里巴巴撇清干系

Alibaba Scrambles to Prove High Valuation 阿里巴巴高估值或将作茧自缚

Alibaba Tests Waters for Yahoo Buyout – Again 阿里巴巴再试水竞购雅虎股权

Disney Bets on China Thirst for Luxury 迪士尼押注中国名品市场

China’s thirst for luxury goods is a well established fact, with sales soaring for big brands like Louis Vuitton and Burberry in recent years as Chinese consumers eagerly spend thousands of dollars for the latest status symbol. But the taste for luxury for more everyday items is far less established — a reality that Disney (NYSE: DIS) will have to contend with as it embarks on an ambitious plan to open up to 40 of its recently developed Disney-brand stores in China over the next 3 years. (English article) Western firms have a very strong track record in China at the top-end of the luxury goods market, but things are decidedly more mixed at the middle-end where Disney will try to sell items like pricey clothing bearing Mickey and Minnie Mouse, and similarly expensive stuffed toys. Rival toymaker Mattel (NYSE: MAT) suffered an embarrassing setback in China last year when it shuttered its biggest House of Barbie in Shanghai, amid talk that Chinese were unwilling to shell out big bucks for the expensive toys and other kid-oriented services it was selling. (previous post) Likewise, Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), the world’s biggest electronics retailer, shuttered its own-brand stores in China last year after realizing consumers weren’t willing to pay a premium for its products in exchange for its big name and better service. (previous post) On the other hand, Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) has found big success in China, using its premium image to get local yuppies to pay for lattes and cappuccinos that often cost twice as much as an entire meal at ordinary restaurants. Disney has a number of advantages over companies like Mattel, Best Buy and even Starbucks, in that its name is far more recognized in China than any of those other brands in China, with more than 20 years of history. Furthermore, this retail initiative is part of Disney’s much broader multi-faceted approach in China, which also includes selling its traditional TV shows and movies, licensing merchandise, opening Disney-branded English language schools and plans for a Disneyland in Shanghai. The big question is whether parents will be willing to pay such a large premium for toys and other Disney store merchandise for their kids, who are unlikely to notice the difference from lower-priced goods. But given Disney’s big name and popularity in China, I would say its new store initiative stands a good chance of success.

Bottom line: Disney’s new store initiative in China stands a good chance of success, drawing on the company’s strong brand awareness and premium image.

Related postings 相关文章:

Shanghai Support to Provide Welcome Tonic for Disney

Starbucks Goes Downmarket in China Drive 星巴克在华开拓低端市场

Welcome to the China Dollhouse: Barbie Packs Up Shanghai Camper

Ku6-YouTube Tie-Up: China Hype Alive and Well 酷6网和YouTube合作恐难成正果

I want to start today with a silly story that shows that despite the recent confidence crisis for US-listed Chinese stocks, anyone with a good China story to tell can still earn a fast buck on Wall Street. The story I’m referring to involves battered video sharing site Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV), which has announced a tie-up with YouTube that will see the global giant start a new channel to bring Ku6’s content to a global audience. (company announcement; Chinese article) The announcement contains no additional details, but that didn’t stop investors from getting excited enough over a good China story to boost Ku6’s Nasdaq-listed shares by a whopping 140 percent on Tuesday. Cynics like myself will note that even with the jump, Ku6 shares are still at less than half of their highs from last May, when a broader sell-off began for US-listed China stocks due to a series of accounting scandals. Let’s sit back and think about this new deal for a minute. Sure, YouTube is a huge name in online video and there are certainly plenty of people outside China who might be interested in watching more China-generated content. But nowhere in Ku6’s announcement is there any mention of exclusivity, and if this tie-up is even remotely successful I suspect YouTube will quickly start looking for more China partners with bigger content libraries, such as Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), which undoubtedly would be happy to enter into such alliances. What’s more, Ku6 is a company with a bit of an identity crisis, having undergone a number of major changes in its management and strategic direction over the past year at the instigation of its fickle controlling shareholder, Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA). In fact, I strongly suspect this new announcement is the work of Shanda founder and chairman Chen Tianqiao, who has proven himself a master at making headlines that sounds exciting but mostly lack substance. At the end of the day, I seriously doubt this new tie-up will rescue Ku6, although it could theoretically become a more attractive takeover target for one of its larger rivals. At the end of the day, all this just shows that western investors will always love a good China story, regardless of how much substance it has — or lacks.

Bottom line: A new tie-up between Ku6 and YouTube will bring minimal benefits to Ku6, but a huge jump  in Ku6 stock shows that western investors will always love an good China story.

Related postings 相关文章:

Ku6 Media Bulks Up, Heats Up Online Video 酷6扩张版图

Ku6 Media CEO Falls Victim to Whimsical Ways of Shanda’s Chen

Shanda’s New Deal: Spinning Off Literature 盛大文学拟分拆上市

News Digest: January 18, 2012

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on January 18. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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ZTE (HKEx: 763) Aims to Pass Rival Huawei in Smartphone Sales in China (English article)

China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) Targets Sales of 45 Mln Smartphones in 2012 (English article)

New Oriental (NYSE: EDU) Announces Results for Fiscal Q2 Ended Nov 30 (PRNewswire)

Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV) and YouTube Form Tie-Up, Ku6 Stocks Jumps 139 Percent (Chinese article)

Ming Yang (NYSE: MY) Announces Issuance of Up to RMB 1.0 Billion 3 Year Notes (PRNewswire)

Vancl: Sales Soar, But Where’s the IPO?

Leading online clothing retailer Vancl has held a high-profile press conference where its Chairman and CEO Chen Nian talked at length about his company’s latest developments, including its phenomenal growth since its founding as well as its missteps over the last year. But what’s perhaps most revealing is what he didn’t talk about, namely the company’s long-delayed IPO, reflecting the intense competition that has developed in online retailing over the last year that has perhaps caused Vancl to quietly slip into the red — if it was ever profitable to begin with. Chinese media reports cite Chen giving out a multitude of figures for his company in 2011, including 150 percent sales growth. (English article; Chinese article) The reports also cite Chen saying his company made some missteps last year, mostly due to management’s loss of strategic direction. That confession, combined with previous reports of layoffs amid a cash crunch (previous post) and no mention of profits at the press conference, all tell me that Vancl is losing money, possibly a lot of money, and may be coming under intense pressure to raise more funds or cut costs or both. Vancl reportedly completed all the necessary steps for a New York IPO last year and was waiting for the right time to make its offering, but ultimately had to scrap its plans when market sentiment toward Chinese companies — especially money-losing ones — tanked in the second half of the year. Online video site Xunlei sounded a cautiously positive note for the market last week when reports emerged that it was reactivating its own New York IPO, which it also had to scrap last year due to the weak market sentiment. (previous post) But unlike Vancl, Xunlei was already in the black as early as 2009, when it posted a profit of $5.5 million. When the US IPO market for Chinese companies finally does improve, profitable companies like Xunlei are much more likely to lead the next wave of new offerings than money-losers like Vancl and 360Buy, another money-losing candidate for a US IPO, which investors won’t embrace so easily. If that’s the case, look for more cost-cutting by Vancl in 2012, with an IPO unlikely before the second half of the year at earliest — if the company survives that long.

Bottom line: 2012 will be a tough year for cash-strapped money-losing Vancl, which won’t be able to make a long-delayed US IPO until the second half of the year at earliest.

Related postings 相关文章:

Qihoo, Vancl Fend Off New Attacks 奇虎、凡客和人人承受压力

Internet Investors Seek Refuge in Big Names 互联网投资者选择性支持中国市场领头羊

China Internet Bubble Sees Vancl Dressing Down 中国互联网泡沫见证凡客裁员

Markets: HK Huddles, Int’l Board Balks 赴港上市仍障碍重重 上海国际板推出再度押後

There are a couple of interesting stories out today on stock markets that specialize in China listings, one pointing to a potential surge in new offerings in Hong Kong while the other suggesting a long-delayed international board being set up in Shanghai won’t be launching anytime soon. Let’s start with the Hong Kong development, which is the more interesting of the two. Media are quoting a Chinese securities regulator saying his agency wants to streamline the process for Chinese companies to list in Hong Kong, a move aimed at helping smaller entrepreneurial companies to raise funds. (English article) On the surface this move looks interesting, as such companies do lack access to funds and are usually low on the domestic IPO list, where preference usually goes to former state-run companies with strong government ties. This kind of move by the regulator also looks like it could steal business from the New York stock markets, where the vehicle used by most Chinese companies to list is coming under scrutiny after a recent series of accounting scandals. There are 2 big problems with these assumptions. Perhaps most important, Hong Kong requires all companies that list on its main board to report at least 3 years of profits — a requirement that most US-listed Chinese firms would have failed at the time of their IPOs and a requirement that will make it hard for many smaller entrepreneurial firms to list in Hong Kong. Secondly, Hong Kong tends to be very conservative in terms of which listings it approves, meaning it is unlikely to approve many smaller, riskier companies that might become eligible for Hong Kong IPOs even if the Chinese regulator relaxes its rules. Moving on to the second topic, Shanghai’s highly anticipated but long delayed international board, the story is quite straightforward: investors shouldn’t expect anything anytime soon. Media are quoting Shanghai’s mayor saying the timing isn’t right for the launch of such a board, even though the Shanghai stock exchange said 2 months ago all preparations were ready. (English article) In this case the reason for this latest delay is obvious: China’s 2 main stock exchanges are both extremely weak right now, and officials won’t launch a new board that could drain further money from the domestic exchanges until things show signs of improving. If that’s the case, the international board’s launch could be delayed indefinitely and may not even occur this year at all, as China’s domestic markets show no signs of improving anytime soon.

Bottom line: Plans to let more Chinese firms list in Hong Kong are likely to have little or no impact, while launch of an international board in Shanghai could be delayed until late 2012 or even 2013.

Related postings 相关文章:

Year End Brings Problematic New IPO Wave 中国新一波IPO潮或无法达预期效果

Cleanup Resumes, Facebook Sniffs Out China Investors 在美上市的中国企业将继续面临“大清洗”

Jishi the Latest in Low-Key Media Listing Parade 吉视传媒加入中国媒体低调上市大军

Huawei Discovers Cellphones 华为手机要向世界前三进军

Huawei Technologies, one of China’s most successful exporters but also one of its most frustrated, is following in the footsteps of crosstown rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen 000063) in discovering cellphones, a far less controversial product than its traditional networking equipment business. The move looks like a smart one for Huawei, even if the company is a little late coming to this product area, with many interesting implications. Chinese media are quoting an executive saying Huawei is aiming to become one of the world’s top 3 cellphone makers within the next 5 years — a big order for a company that is currently just a minor player but certainly not impossible for one with Huawei’s vast resources. (Chinese article) Equally significant was where the executive made his remarks, namely at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) last week in Las Vegas, the world’s largest consumer electronics show that Huawei was attending for the first time. The new push will add an interesting new competitor to the market, posing a challenge not only for domestic rivals like ZTE and Lenovo (HKEx: 992), but also for foreign companies like Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI) and even faded global leader Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V). Huawei is no doubt finally realizing that cellphones are far less sensitive as a product than its core telecoms equipment business, which is showing signs of quickly slowing amid resistance in western markets like the US, where security is a concern (previous post), and even in India, where a corruption scandal has brought the industry to a standstill. (previous post) As a product area, cellphones are also far less cyclical than traditional networking equipment, whose sales tend to spike when new technologies like 4G or wi-fi come out, but then subside afterwards. Lastly and perhaps most interesting, the development of a strong cellphone business could provide Huawei with an opportunity for something that’s been talked about for years but has never happened, namely a Huawei IPO. Huawei tried to sell of its cellphone business several years ago but failed after it didn’t get the price it wanted. But that business was very small at the time, making it not very attractive to outside buyers. If it was one of the world’s top 3 players, on the other hand, it would certainly become a much more attractive candidate for an international IPO, finally giving investors a chance to buy into this interesting buy controversial company.

Bottom line: Huawei’s new drive into cellphones could create a major new global player in a short time, with a potential IPO for the unit in the next 5 years if the drive is successful.

Related postings 相关文章:

Huawei Puts Brakes on India Drive 华为印度建厂计划推迟

US China Bashing Hits New High With Telecoms Probe 华为中兴应巧选时机应对调查

ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

News Digest: January 17, 2012

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on January 17. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ China to Ease Controls on HK Listings: Regulator (English article)

Vancl 2011 Revenue Increases 150% YoY (English article)

Baidu-Invested (Nasdaq: BIDU) Qunar Considers US IPO (Chinese article)

China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) to Launch iPhone 4S by March – Source (English article)

Huawei Aims To Become One of World’s Top 3 Cellphone Brand in 3 Years (Chinese article)