Faced with a slowing home market and stiff competition from foreign-backed rivals, China’s big domestic auto brands are increasingly looking to developing markets to revive their flagging sales, with Geely (HKEx: 175) the latest to jump on the export bandwagon. A company executive says Geely, which made headlines a couple of years ago with its purchase of Volvo, aims to overtake domestic rival Chery in the next 2 years to become China’s leading car exporter. (English article) Geely is joining Chery in the drive to overseas markets as growth in China’s domestic auto market, the world’s largest, has slowed dramatically over the last year after Beijing retired many buying incentives designed to boost domestic consumption during the global financial crisis. As the market has slowed, China’s “big 3” domestic nameplates, Geely, Chery and BYD (HKEx: 1211), all of which specialize in lower end cars, have lost steady share to other domestic rivals with big-name foreign joint venture partners. Those rivals are turning up the heat even more with a recent series of new initiatives to enter the lower end of the market, which traditionally was dominated by the domestic brands. (previous post) Under its aggressive export expansion plan, Geely will open factories this year in Belarus and Uruguay, adjacent to 2 of the world’s 5 BRICS countries, namely Russia and Brazil. Chery, which has opened one plant in Venezuela and is building another in Brazil, was China’s export leader last year with some 160,000 cars shipped abroad, and has seen strong overseas sales in the first 2 months of this year as well. From my perspective, this overseas strategy looks like a smart move as China is arguably one of the world’s most advanced countries in terms of designing and building reasonably high-quality cars costing less than $10,000 each — a combination preferred by many developing market white collar urbanites who often can’t afford the pricier models offered by big-name foreign companies like GM (NYSE: GM) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG). GM has recently discovered the lower end of the market can be quite lucrative, developing its Chevy Sail specifically for China 2 years ago. Since its release, the Sail has become one of the nation’s best selling models, providing further headaches for the domestic nameplates. If they are smart, which appears to be the case, Chery, Geely, BYD and other export-minded domestic automakers will accelerate their overseas plans, as they should have a 2-3 year head start over the big foreign names. If they hesitate, they could easily run into the same foreign competitors in overseas markets that are already rapidly eroding their profits at home.
Bottom line: Geely’s acceleration of its export drive looks like a smart move, allowing it to leverage its expertise in low-end cars to quickly grow in other developing markets.
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◙ Nissan, VW Jump on China Brand Bandwagon 日产和大众进军中国低端车市场
There are several interesting items out there today on US-listed Chinese firms, led by a resounding investor yawn at news that telecoms software maker and acquisition target AsiaInfo-Linkage (Nasdaq: ASIA) is seeking more offers after a major Chinese investor made a surprise bid for the company last month. In separate but other noteworthy news, we’re getting some more financials that don’t look pretty from car rental specialist China Auto, which has filed to make a New York IPO, and are hearing about an ambitious global expansion plan from e-commerce giant 360Buy, which hopes to someday make a New York IPO to raise more than $1 billion. Let’s start with AsiaInfo-Linkage, which put out a statement on Monday saying it was seeking additional buyers after receiving an offer in February from an investment arm of China’s giant CITIC Group. (
I don’t usually write about China’s airlines as I don’t think the industry is very exciting as a growth story; but as a Shanghai resident I just had to comment on the big new announcement by my hometown carrier China Eastern (HKEx: 670; Shanghai: 600115; NYSE: CEA), which is forming a budget airline joint venture with Australia’s Quantas (Sydney: QAN). To put it bluntly, I would warn investors that this new venture is destined for major turbulence, if it ever even gets off the ground. Under the tie-up, the 2 sides will form a new airline under Quantas’ JetStar low-cost brand to be based in Hong Kong. (
China’s export superstars Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) continue to face new obstacles in their quest for global legitimacy, with the former receiving a major setback in Australia as the latter comes under fire for dealings in the problematic Iranian market. Those developments reflect the uphill battle that both companies face in the eyes of western leaders, many of whom believe the these 2 telecoms equipment giants are little more than spying arms of Beijing. In the latest of a steady stream of setbacks for Huawei, Australia has officially disqualified the company from bidding for contracts to build a new $38 billion high-speed broadband network over security concerns. (
China’s banking sector may be heading into winter (
A growing number of big foreign car makers are developing new low-end brands and models just for the China market, with Nissan (Tokyo: 7201) and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) the latest to make moves in that direction. These new initiatives come as the foreign giants look to keep their growth alive in China’s slowing auto market, posing a major new challenge to domestic nameplates like Geely (HKEx: 175) and Chery, which have been rapidly losing share to their better funded, more experienced foreign rivals. These moves also follow on the phenomenal success of General Motors’ (NYSE: GM) 2010 launch of the Chevy Sail, its first low-end model developed just for China which has posted growth rates in the 50 percent range for much of the last year and is now one of the nation’s best-selling models. Let’s look at the latest news first, starting with Nissan, which last week formally began production of its Venucia line of cars developed just for the China market in its partnership with Dongfeng Motors (HKEx: 489). (
My earlier forecast that spring may soon arrive for US-listed China stocks may have been premature, as the year’s first IPO by Vipshop (NYSE: VIPS), a money-losing online discount retailer, has been a resounding flop just about any way you look at it. Some might say the fact that Vipshop completed the IPO at all is an accomplishment, and perhaps that’s true since its offering is the first major one by a Chinese company in New York for more than half a year. But the results of the offering and its share trading debut are both dismal from any perspective. The company initially hoped to raise up to $117 million when it first filed for its IPO, and later set a price range of $8.50 to $10.50 per American Depositary Share. But in a relatively rare development, it couldn’t even price the offering within that previously stated range, and ended up having to offer shares at $6.50 each — 24 percent lower than the bottom of the range. (