Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

Honda, Guangzhou Auto Chase GM-SAIC 本田广汽“理念”将上市

By on

There’s some interesting news coming out of the auto sector, where the Everus, the first car jointly developed by Honda (Tokyo: 7267) and Chinese partner Guangzhou Auto (HKEx: 2238) for the China market, has just begun rolling off production lines. The launch follows GM’s (NYSE: GM) huge success with its Chevy Sail, a car it developed for China with local partner SAIC (Shanghai: 600104). Just a year after that launch,, the Sail, which sells for as little as $8000, has been selling like hotcakes in China and is even being exported in significant numbers to South America. (English story) Honda and Guangzhou Auto must like what they see and are certainly looking to follow in GM’s footsteps. This approach, in my view, makes much more sense than some Chinese automakers, like Geely (HKEx: 165) and BAIC, who want to export to Western markets where the competition is fierce. Chinese automakers have the best chance for success when they do what they know best: making cheap cars for price-sensitive consumers in developing markets.

Bottom line: Honda and Guangzhou Auto’s new Everus, a car developed just for China, represents a smart step that will yield healthy rewards in the next 1-2 years.

本田汽车<7267.T>与其中国合作夥伴广汽集团<2238.HK>合作为中国市场开发的新车型”理念”刚刚下线。显然，这一车型瞄准的是通用<GM.N>与上汽<600104.SS>合作开发的雪佛兰赛欧。自从一年前上市以来，最低价格只有 8,000美元的赛欧在中国热销，甚至出口到南美等市场。看来，本田和广汽对赛欧的成功艳羡不已，希望以”理念”迎头赶上。在我看来，这种策略比吉利<0165.HK>和北汽等本土车企试图向竞争激烈的西方市场出口要聪明多了。中国汽车企业最拿手的、最容易成功的就是为发展中市场那些对价格敏感的消费者生产物美价廉的汽车。

一句话：本田与广汽推出”理念”是适应中国国情的聪明一步，在未来1-2年内将获得丰厚回报。

Banks: CCB Bets on Downturn, BOC Keeps Head in Sand 中行依旧高歌猛进，建行趋向保守

By on

Fourth-quarter results are out for two of China’s top three banks, and they paint decidedly different pictures for No. 3 lender Bank of China (Shanghai: 601988; HKEx: 3988) and No. 2 China Construction Bank (Shanghai: 6019399; HKEx: 939). First BOC, whose fourth-quarter profit soared 33 percent. I’ve always been a bit wary about Chinese banks in general, and this huge jump — even as Beiijing is trying to rein in lending — shows that BOC is a bit addicted to doling out money in search of big returns, leaving itself highly exposed to the inevitable downturn set to come in the next 12 months. China Construction Bank’s profit, by comparison, rose a much more modest 18 percent, well below its full-year growth of 26 percent, showing it’s getting a bit more serious about bracing for the downturn. (Chinese report) If I were to choose between these two, the choice would be simple. CCB is  getting serious about preparing for the coming storm, while BOC doesn’t seem to even notice the growing clouds on the horizon.

Bottom line: Chinese banks aren’t a great buy in the current climate, but China Construction Bank, with its more conservative approach, offers a better bet than Bank of China.

中国第二和第三大银行–建行<601939.SS><0939.HK>和中行<601988.SS><3988.HK>都发布了2010年第四季度财报。先看中行，其第四季度利润上涨33%。我通常对中国的银行都心存忧虑。在中央政府试图收紧贷款的情况下，中行的利润仍能如此跃升，说明中行仍旧沉醉于大笔撒 钱换取高额回报的模式。面对未来12个月中国经济将不可避免放缓的大环境，中行风险大增。相对来说，建行第四季度例利润18%的增幅较为温和，远低於该行 全年利润上升26%的幅度。这显示建行对经济放缓准备更加充分。

一句话：在目前的经济环境下，中国的银行股并不适合买入。但建行已经未雨绸缪，采取比较保守的策略，与中行比起来，它显然更吸引人一些。

China Mobile Pushes Ahead With 4G Trial, Challenges Regulator 中国移动急於进军4G

By on

China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941) is pushing ahead with its 4G trial expansion, even after signs the regulator won’t give licenses for another 2-3 years at the earliest. One of my sources tells me China’s phone giant, which is hemorrhaging market share to rivals Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762) and China Telecom (NYSE: CHT; HKEx: 728) in the 3G space, awarded contracts to build trial networks for its TD-LTE technology in six or seven cities late last week. According to him, contract winners include the usual suspects, Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen 000063), Nokia Siemens and Datang; one surprise may have come when global powerhouse Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) failed to make the cut, but that has yet to be confirmed. Regardless, the fact that China Mobile is pressing ahead with a major expansion of 4G trials shows it’s determined to bring TD-LTE to market sooner rather than later. I see a battle shaping up between them and the regulator, which is clearly more inclined to give the industry more time to get its 3G networks up and running before moving to 4G.

Bottom line: Look for China Mobile to spar with the telecoms regulator over timing for 4G licenses, with the regulator’s go-slow approach likely to win the battle.

中国移动<CHL.N><0941.HK>正推进其4G试验网络的扩张，尽管有迹象显示监管曾在未来2-3年内都不大可能发放4G牌照。有消息人士告诉我，在其3G市场份额不断向联通<CHU.N><0762.HK>和中国电信<CHT.N><0728.HK>流失的情况下，中国移动上周派发了在6-7个城市建设TD-LTE技术试验网络的合同，赢得 合同的包括华为、中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>，诺基亚-西门子和大唐电信。唯一令人惊讶的是巨头爱立 信<ERICb.ST>没能分得一杯羹，但上述消息还有待证实。不管怎样，中国电信扩张TD-LTE技术试验网络，说明它已经下定决心尽早实现4G商用。运营商与监管层之间针对4G牌照时间表的角力即将开始，监管层显然希望3G网络成熟後再向4G过渡。

一句话：中国移动将开始针对4G时机与监管层较劲，而监管层的谨慎态度更有可能占上风。

Qihoo: More Controversy from the Year’s Hot-Potato IPO 奇虎再生波澜

By on

Just when you thought you couldn’t get enough controversy from IPO-bound Qihoo, the security software maker has landed in the middle of another storm, which just reinforces my view that this is a company to avoid at all costs. According to Chinese media, a rival named Rising is accusing Qihoo, which is raising up to $200 million with an NYSE listing, of tailoring its flagship Qihoo 360 Safe product to effectively lock out any other security software on a person’s PC once the 360 is up and running. (English article; Chinese article) Rising held an emergency press conference to discuss the matter, similar to what Tencent (HKEx: 700) did late last year when Qihoo tried a similar stunt. Both Tencent and Rising, and undoubtedly countless others, have filed complaints with relevant Chinese authorities. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Qihoo significantly scales back its IPO or shelves it altogether after this latest in a long string of scandals, as I honestly can’t believe that any savvy investors would want to touch this company.

Bottom line: Avoid Qihoo’s IPO if you like your money

计划在纽交所上市融资2亿美元的安全软件公司奇虎，本已话题缠身，最近又陷入另一场争议。这进一步验证了我此前的判断：奇虎这家公司沾不得。中 国媒体报 道，奇虎的老对手瑞星指责奇虎通过其旗舰产品”奇虎360″，有针对性地封杀用户电脑上安装的任何其他安全软件。与去年腾讯-奇虎大战如出一辙，瑞星召开 了一场紧急新闻发布会，提出上述指控。包括腾讯、瑞星等在内的诸多业内厂商，已经向中国主管部门提出了针对奇虎的多项投诉。此次瑞星发难之後，如果奇虎大幅降低IPO融资目标，甚至搁置IPO计划，我一点也不会吃惊。我实在难以相信任何精明的投资者敢碰奇虎的股票。

一句话：如果你珍视你的钱袋，就离奇虎IPO远点

 

Acer and Dell: One Cuts, One Pastes 宏基裁人、戴尔建厂

By on

There’re some interesting items out there on the latest China moves by two of the world’s top PC makers, Acer (Taipei: 2353) and Dell (Nasdaq: DELL). First Acer, the more dynamic of the two. It should come as no surprise to anyone that Chinese media are reporting that Acer has cut 10 percent of its China staff, nearly all of it from its “tie-up” with (aka takeover of) Founder’s PC business (Chinese report). This kind of hatchet job is exactly what Acer did when it bought Gateway’s PC business in the US, i.e. it bought the company for its name and distribution channels and then quickly dismantled the rest of it. That strategy seemed to work quite well in the US, so I suspect it could work equally well in China. Now Dell. It seems Michael Dell was in town for the ground-breaking of a new plant — Dell’s second in China — in Chengdu. (English article) I suppose this move shows Dell’s commitment to China’s hinterland, which of course is what Beijing wants as it tries to develop less affluent coastal areas. In an interview with China Daily, Michael Dell also said his company is shifting its China focus from the highly competitive consumer space back to the enterprise sector which made Dell so successful in the first place. Smart move, Michael.

Bottom line: Acer and Dell are both making important shifts in their China strategies that could help them steal share from market leader Lenovo (HKEx: 992)

两家全球主要PC厂商，宏基<2353.TW>和戴尔<DELL.O>，最近在中国市场都有些引人注目的动作。首 先，中国媒体报 道宏基将其中国员工裁减10%，且几乎全是此前宏基”整合”方正PC业务所接收的前方正员工。对宏基来说，这不过是重施故伎–宏基在美国收购了 Gateway的PC业务之後，也实施了类似的裁员。实际上，宏基买的就是品牌和销售渠道，到手之後立刻把其他不要的部分砍掉。这招在美国奏效了，在中国 恐怕也同样有效。再说戴尔。创始人迈克·戴尔又来中国了，为在华第二家工厂奠基，厂址在成都。在与《中国日报》的采访中，戴尔说将把业务重点由竞争激烈的个人电脑领域转向企业客户。毕竟，这是戴尔的起家之本。

一句话：宏基与戴尔都在调整在华战略，希望夺取市场老大联想的份额。

Don’t Gamble on Shanda, Says CCTV 盛大被曝光

By on

Looks like Chen Tianqiao’s Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) has been caught running gambling tables for Chinese Internet punters — a revelation that can’t be good for this company already trying to figure out exactly where it should focus its energies.It seems the media police, otherwise known as CCTV, has run an expose that caught one of Shanda’s units in the act. (English article; Chinese article) I’ve seen these kinds of exposes before, two of which dealt a sharp short-term blows to Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN) for promoting such unworthy causes as fortune telling and fake medical services. Never mind that this Shanda unit may be a small part of its overall business, as advertisers and other merchants will now avoid the company for fear of angering government officials. Watch for Shanda’s top and bottom lines to take a beating in the coming year.

Bottom line: Shanda’s business will take a hit for the next 2-3 quarters after CCTV uncovered online gambling at one of its units.

CCTV作为中国”媒体警察”的地位不断增强。《焦点访谈》近期曝光盛大<SNDA.O>旗下边锋游戏涉嫌赌博，这对於苦於找不到业务重心的盛大来说，可不是什麽好消息。”央视曝光”的杀伤力不可小觑。此前新浪<SINA.O>和分众传媒<FMCN.O>都因旗下业务违规被CCTV曝光而在短期内遭到 沉重打击。尽管此次盛大被曝光的子公司不过是其整体业务中的很小一部分，但商家和广告主现在恐怕要对盛大退避三舍，以免惹恼相关部门。盛大今年的收入和盈 利恐怕都要受打击。

一句话：未来2-3个季度，盛大的业务将受央视曝光影响。

Apple to China: Sorry, You’re Not On Our List 中国达不到苹果iPad2的水平

By on

Since everyone is writing about Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and its new iPad these days, YCBB is going to jump on the bandwagon and give our quick take on things in China. Specifically, we noted with interest that China was NOT on the list when Apple announced the first 25 countries for the international launch of its latest hot product this week. (English news release) To be fair, no Asia countries were on the list of 25 and only Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore were on the list for the next round of releases in April (strangely, Japan wasn’t on the list either). All this goes to show that China, while full of potential, still probably lacks the sales that these other markets can provide, even though everyone wants to own one. In the shorter term, this could play well to some of the other tablet PC followers, including Korea’s Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and especially home-grown leader Lenovo (HKEx: 992), whose extensive sales network in China could boost the chances of success for its upcoming LePad 2.

Bottom line: China has yet to achieve big-league status in Apple’s eye, leaving the local tablet PC market open to the likes of Lenovo and Samsung.

近来大家都在热谈苹果<AAPL.O>及其最新iPad2，我也难免俗，就谈谈我在中国的观感。首先，中国并不在苹果公布的iPad2美国之外 首批上市的25个国家之列。当然，除了香港特区，任何亚洲国家地区都没能上榜，甚至非常奇怪的是，也没有日本。这说明，尽管中国市场潜力巨大，似乎人人都 想买iPad2，但仍旧没能给苹果带来其他成熟市场那般的销量。短期内，这对其他平板电脑厂商是个好消息，包括联想<0992.HK>韩国三星<005930.KS>。尤其是联想，它在中国精耕细作的销售网络有助於其即将推出的乐LePad2取得良好销售成绩。

一句话：苹果认为中国还没达到大市场的水平，给三星与联想机会开发这个平板电脑市场

Ctrip Finds Growth Recipe in Restaurants 携程：进军在线订餐

By on

There’s some interesting news out there regarding online travel pioneer Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP), which Chinese media say is adding the restaurant business to its menu of services. (English report; Chinese report) Now normally I’m not a big fan of Chinese industry leaders that look for new growth outside their core areas, but in this case I think that Ctrip’s move may actually be a good one. After all, this is one of the few cases of a Chinese Web company that ventured from its original roots to become successful in another related area. In this case I’m talking about Ctrip’s move from its original online hotel booking service into airline booking, which now makes up a big chunk of its business. Restaurants are sort of related to its two current mainstays, as travelers often want to find good places to eat. I also like Ctrip’s go-slow approach to adding new businesses, unlike other me-too Internet companies like Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), that keep venturing into new business areas every few months, mostly without success.

Bottom line: Ctrip’s move into the restaurant space is a smart one, and could easily fatten up its top and bottom lines in the next few years.

中国在线旅游服务的先行者携程旅行网<CTRP.O>也有了新动作。中国媒体报 道，携程进军在线订餐市场，旗下美食订餐频道已经上线接受预订。通 常，我并不看好处於行业领先地位的中国公司扩展其主业之外的业务。但携程可能成为少有的例外–毕竟，这已经不是携程第一次成功拓展核心业务领域。携程以 在线预订旅馆酒店起家，後来成功进军机票预订领域。而餐饮与上述两项都密切相关：旅行者往往喜欢品尝旅游目的地的美食。另外，携程对扩展业务比较谨慎，三 思而後行，这与盛大<SNDA.O>和百度<BIDU.O>动辄贸然出击截然不同。

一句话：携程进军餐饮预订是聪明之举，在未来几年对其销售额和盈利能力都有帮助。

Baidu-Powered Cellphones? I Don’t Think So 百度也想做手机？恐怕没戏

By on

It seems that Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) little Robin Li is at it again trying to steal another idea from elder brother Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). This time Chinese media are reporting the chairman and founder of China’s Google knock-off is planning to enter the ultra competitive mobile OS business, going head-to-head with the likes of Google’s very popular Android system and Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular OS for iPhones. (Chinese article) To put it bluntly, this effort sounds almost as ludicrous as earlier reports that Chinese computer giant Lenovo (HKEx: 992) was also developing an OS to use in its mobile phones. I say “almost” because at least Baidu does have some experience in software development, while Lenovo has little or none. Still, given its very late arrival to the scene, coupled with the fierce competition in this space and its poor track record at anything outside its core search business, Baidu’s attempt in this area is almost doomed to failure from the start.

Bottom line: Any attempt by Baidu to develop a mobile OS could cost it tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, and will quickly end in failure.

百度<BIDU.O>的李彦宏又在模仿老大哥谷歌<GOOG.O>的战略了。中国媒体报 道说，百度计划进军竞争超级激烈的移动操作系统领域，欲与业内巨头谷歌的Android和苹果<AAPL.O>的OS展开竞争。不客气地说，这是个荒谬的主意，几乎跟联想<0992.HK>此前表示欲自主开发手机操作系统一样荒谬。我说”几乎”，是因为至少百度在软件开发领域还有些经验，联想则近乎毫无经验可言。百度进入移动操作系统市场的时机太晚了，这个领域的竞争已经异常惨烈。而且，除了其核心的搜索领域之外，百度此前尝试的任何其他业务都乏善可陈。由此看来，百度出征移动操作系统简直就是尚未出师而败局已定。

一句话：百度开发移动操作系统的任何尝试都将白白浪费数千万甚至上亿美元的成本，并且迅速以失败告终。

Baosteel Takes Nice Baby Step Outside China 宝钢终於走出海外第一步

By on

There’s an interesting report in today’s China Daily saying steel titan Baosteel (Shanghai: 600019) is taking its first small step outside China with plans to build a beverage can factory in Vietnam to better serve the thirsty Southeast Asia market. Details in the report, citing an unnamed senior official, are thin, except for the factory’s location. But this is exactly the kind of move that Baosteel and other expansion-minded Chinese firms need to make it they want to become global players. Vietnam is close enough to home to be comfortable for Baosteel, and it’s a developing market similar to China’s own. What’s more, Baosteel already operates a similar plant making cans in China for Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) and Coke (NYSE: KU), two beverage giants that can provide valuable support in a new market like Vietnam. I’m guessing initial investment in this plant is probably small, but it’s easily expandable and is exactly the kind of investment that could yield handsome returns for Baosteel in the next few years.

Bottom line: Baosteel’s move into Vietnam is a smart first step outside China that should yield strong returns in the next few years and serve as a springboard into other global markets.

今天的《中国日报》说中国钢铁业巨无霸宝钢<600019.SS>走出了海外扩张的一小步，计划在越南建立一家饮料罐生产企业，服务东南亚市场。除了新厂的位置外，报导并未提供很多细节。但是，对於意图海外扩张、成为全球性企业的的宝钢和其他中国公司来说，这绝对是正确的一步。首 先，越南距中国足够近，操作起来并不太难，而且越南与中国一样是一个发展中市场。而且，宝钢在中国国内已经拥有一家为百事可乐<PEP.N> 和可口可乐<KU.N>生产饮料罐的公司。这两家饮品巨头对宝钢越南建厂都可以提供宝贵支持。估计新厂初期投资不高，但应该易于扩展，而且在 未来几年可能获得丰厚回报。

一句话：宝钢在越南建厂是聪明的一小步，也是全球扩张的一个跳板。

 

ZTE US, India Moves Smell of Desperation 中兴通讯急了

By on

There are a couple of tidbits coming from ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), both of which hint at pressure the company must be feeling from investors after posting results last week that showed sharply slowing growth. (English results; Chinese results). In the first piece of news, we learn that ZTE is launching a US portal: clearly a move aimed at making people believe it thinks it can crack this difficult market in the near future. In the second, Chinese media are reporting the company has fired its India chief (Chinese report), a clear response to the company’s weak performance lately in this once promising market. As I’ve said before, I do think ZTE will eventually crack the US market, though not for at least a year and possibly longer. India also looks tough, and it’s going to take more than firing one executive to revive its fortunes there. In the meantime, it’s also going to take more than this kind of news to revive ZTE’s bottom line, which looks set for more slow-growth for at least the next year.

Bottom line: ZTE’s superficial efforts to restart its growth won’t pay any dividends in the near-term.

中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>传出的几则消息表明，继其上周公布业绩显示增长急剧减速後，它已经感受到了来自投资者的压力。首先，中兴通讯面向美国市场开设了英文网站(http://www.zteusa.com/)，摆出意欲进军美国市场的架势。另外，中国媒体报导称中兴解雇了自己的印度分部总裁，明显是对该公司近期在印度市场表现疲软做出的回应。我一向认为中兴最终能够进入美国市场，但至少要在一年以後，甚至有可能更长时间。至于印度市场，仅仅换帅肯定是不够的。同样，开设美国网站、撤换印度总裁之类的动作，也无法改变中兴通讯近期增长放缓的总体趋势。

一句话：中兴通讯的小动作在短期没什麽效果，无助於刺激增速。