It seems that US investors have finally woken up from their months of irrational exuberance, to borrow the phrase from Alan Greenspan, towards China Internet IPOs. The unraveling of a match made in heaven — at least for Chinese Internet firms — was on display in the weak trading debut for Jiayuan (Nasdaq: DATE), whose shares limped out of the gate on the Nasdaq with a small gain, but quickly faltered at the investor altar and ended their first day down 4 percent from their IPO price. (English article; Chinese article) What a difference a week makes, as I’m sure this company, China’s largest Internet dating site, would have soared off the charts if it had debuted just a week earlier when China Internet offerings were the hot ticket in town. Reflecting the broader shift in investor sentiment, Renren (NYSE: RENN), a top Chinese social networking site which roared out of the gate with a 29 percent gain on its trading debut just a week ago (previous post), is now actually down 10 percent from its IPO price after tumbling in the last few sessions. Another net firm, mobile security software maker Netqin (NYSE: NQ), is now down a whopping 40 percent from its IPO price after a weak debut last week (previous post), though that company has other issues as well. What all of this means is that the days of frothy prices for any and every China Internet IPO are finished, at least for now, though quality offerings could still fetch some nice attention and valuations.
Bottom line: Short-term investors have grown tired of China Internet offerings, boding poorly for their stocks in the near-term.
借用格林斯潘的话说，美国投资者似乎终於从数月来对中国互联网企业首次公开募股（IPO）的非理性狂欢中清醒过来。至少对中国互联网企业而言，天作之合美梦的破灭在世纪佳缘<DATE.O>上市首日的疲弱表现中显露无遗。世纪佳缘在美上市首日，开盘小幅上涨，但很快急转直下，收盘时较IPO价格下跌4%。仅仅一周之差，差距便如此之大。我确信，如果该企业提前一周上市，那麽这家中国最大的婚恋交友网站的股价一定会飙升，因当时中国互联网IPO正炙手可热。中国头号社交网站——人人网<RENN.N>一周前在纽交所挂牌上市後，首日上涨29%，但在此後的几个交易日里遭受重挫，目前股价较发行价已经跌去10%，反映出投资者整体情绪已经转向。另一家网络公司——手机安全软件商网秦<NQ.N>上周在美上市，目前股价较发行价下跌40%，当然该公司还存在其它问题。所有这一切都说明，中国互联网企业IPO的泡沫价格时代已经终结，至少现在是这样，尽管一些有品质的IPO可能依然会吸引某些不错的关注和估值。
一句话：短线投资者已逐渐对中国互联网企业IPO感到厌倦，预示着这些个股的短期前景很不乐观。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Netqin Fizzles on Debut, Could Still Have Potential 网秦首秀表现不佳但可能仍具潜力
◙ Beijing Deals Death Blow to Facebook China Plan – Source 中国宣判Facebook入华计划“死刑”–消息人士
First Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) warned earlier this week that its Q1 earnings would miss its own guidance, and a day later Yingli (NYSE: YGE) issued a similar warning. (
approval at the highest levels in Beijing – would seem to be a new approach aimed at circumventing any politicians worried about a Chinese firm taking control of a US one in this sensitive area. The only problem is, I don’t see any way that Nanshan or any other Chinese company can succeed in this labor-intensive sector in the US, as their main advantage is the low costs they can get in China. Furthermore, union politics common at this kind of factory have been difficult for Chinese firms operating overseas to navigate in the past, and I see no reason that Nanshan – which has little or no overseas experience – will fare any better.
At first blush, Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) recent purchase of 4.6 percent of popular TV and movie production house Huayi Bros (Shenzhen: 300027) for 450 million yuan, or about $70 million, looks like just another silly purchase by a company with way too much cash on its hands. (
I read with interest that car maker BYD (HKEx: 1211), whose stock soared after Warren Buffett invested the company, only to crash more recently as sales stagnated, has finally won approval for a major new listing in China’s Shenzhen A-share market. (
It looks like China’s wireless broadband space is about to get a whole lot hotter — literally. Just a month after China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) announced a campaign to have 1 million hot spots nationwide within three years (previous post), the China Daily is reporting rival China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHT) has announced a similar plan to better serve the nation’s growing legions of wireless Web surfers. I previously called the China Mobile plan misguided, and I think the same is almost true for China Telecom. I say “almost”, because with China Telecom the plan makes a little more sense. Whereas China Mobile has little or no experience in this space, China Telecom has become a broadband specialist over the last few years through its fixed-line broadband offering, so presumably has more know-how in the area, both in terms of infrastructure and also in the equally important field of marketing. I still believe that most wireless broadband subscribers would rather get their service through 3G that’s available everywhere instead of via wi-fi that’s only available in select hot spots. But if anyone has a chance at succeeding in a national wi-fi network, I would give China Telecom the better odds over China Mobile.
position in Shanghai after the city opens its Disneyland in three or four years’ time. (
takes measures to cool the market and clear up its congested roads, boding poorly for GM’s previously announced plan to double its car sales in China over the next 5 years. Barring any new moves by Beijing to re-jumpstart the market – which seems unlikely – GM’s target is starting to look more like wishful thinking than anything attainable, forcing the global auto giant to look elsewhere for a growth story to keep its investors excited.
While Renren (NYSE: REN) was grabbing headlines last week with its blockbuster IPO, another struggling Web firm, Netqin (NYSE: NQ), quietly stumbled out of the gate with barely a whimper. (
