Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

New Oriental Shows Why Education Pays 新东方告诉你为何教育会有回报

China’s education services firms may not be as high-profile as big names like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) or Geely (HKEx: 165), but industry leader New Oriental Education (NYSE: EDU) is showing it can be equally profitable and notch enviable growth that would make many of the big boys jealous. While high inflation may be eroding Chinese consumer appetite for many discretionary items, education for themselves and their children is clearly not one of those, as evidenced by New Oriental’s latest results which saw its revenue rise nearly 60 percent and net income more than double for its fiscal quarter through the end of May. (company announcement) It forecast more modest revenue growth of about 35 percent in the important summer holiday quarter, though many Chinese firms are famous for low-balling such forecasts so they can surprise to the upside if their business does well. As a final piece of good news — and relative rarity for Chinese New York-listed companies these days — New Oriental announced a 4-for-1 stock split, a nod to the fact that its stock has doubled over the last two years and now trades near its all-time high. The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is a bit rich at more than 50 times, but its strong prospects seem to at least partly justify that high figure if it can really keep its profit growing at such a staggering rate. Given the ultra-competitiveness of China’s education system and the fact that everyone — from the wealthiest to the most average citizen — is willing to spend big bucks to educate their kids, I’d say the prospects look good for industry leaders like New Oriental and TAL Education (NYSE: XRS) for at least the next few years.

Bottom line: New Oriental and other education services firms still have lots of room for growth, feeding on Chinese desire to improve themselves and their children through extra study.

中国的教育服务公司可能没有百度<BIDU.O>或吉利<0175.HK>等公司那麽高调,但行业领跑者新东方<EDU.N>却在证明,教育服务业也同样可以赚钱,实现令知名大公司都艳羡不已的增长。虽然高通胀可能令中国消费者不再愿意在许多非必需品上花钱,但对於他们自己和他们的孩子来说,教育却不在此列。新东方最新财报表明,公司第四季营收增长近60%,净利润增长了一倍多。该公司并预计,暑期这一季度营收将增长35%。还有一条好消息是,在纽约上市的新东方宣布股票1拆4计划,这说明过去两年里,其股价翻倍,并且目前其股价接近历史高点。新东方的市盈率高於50倍,如果新东方能保持现有的利润增速,其强劲的前景似乎至少可以解释为何这一数字会如此之高。考虑到中国竞争激烈的教育体制,以及全民都愿为孩子进行教育投资,我觉得新东方和学而思教育集团<XRS.N>等行业领头羊至少在未来几年的前景是很光明的。

一句话:鉴於中国人愿意为自己和孩子充电进行投资,新东方和其他教育服务公司还有很大增长空间。

Related postings 相关文章:

China NY Stocks on Cusp of Comeback? 中国赴美上市公司股票即将触底反弹?

Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

I have to congratulate Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) for finally doing the right thing, or at least taking a step in the right direction, by signing a deal with 3 major record labels, Universal, Warner (NYSE: WMG) and Sony Music (Tokyo: 6758) that will see it do the once unthinkable and actually pay for copyright protected music. (company announcement) Of course there’s a bit of irony here, as Baidu previously said it will continue to offer pirated copies of music from those three labels and others via its highly popular free music swapping service, which has been criticized for years for allowing the illegal sharing of copyrighted music. Baidu’s move comes just weeks after leading video sharing site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) announced a similar tie-up to offer legal films and TV shows from Warner’s library to its premium customers. (previous post) I’ll be a bit cynical here and note that Baidu went for years without seeming to care about copyright protection before finally becoming “enlightened”, and have no doubt that its change of heart is coming at least in part due to heavy pressure from regulators who are trying to stamp out China’s rampant piracy. While it’s one thing for a little old lady from the countryside to sell pirated DVDs from a cart on the side of the street, it’s quite an embarrassment for Beijing when many of its top Internet companies like Baidu also engage in such practices, and clearly we’re going to see a move by major Net firms to slowly phase out their sites that encourage copyright infringement over the next few years. As that happens, look for more deals like the one just announced by Baidu, and also look for the company and its peers to suffer a bit when they finally close down their popular but illegal song- and video-swapping services.

Bottom line: Baidu’s slow embrace of copyright protection marks the beginning of a cleanup of pirated material on China’s Internet, which will benefit content providers but hurt Web firms.

百度环球唱片华纳唱片<WMG.N>、索尼音乐<6758.T>三大音乐唱片公司签署正版音乐使用协议。我必须要为百度<BIDU.O>这一正确之举或至少向正确方向迈进了一步的行动而表示祝贺。该协议将使百度要为使用受版权保护的音乐付费。当然,有点儿讽刺的是,百度之前曾表示,会通过其非常受欢迎的免费音乐交换服务继续提供盗版音乐。免费音乐交换服务多年来因允许非法分享正版音乐而备受抨击。几个星期前,优酷<YOKU.N>宣布要向其优质客户提供来自华纳的电影和电视节目。我要在这稍微尖刻一点:百度多年来都好像不在乎版权保护问题,直到最近才突然“恍然大悟”,而毫无疑问的是,这部分是因为百度受到了来自监管者的强大压力。中国监管机构正努力打击盗版。农村老妇在街边卖盗版碟也就罢了,很多像百度这样的顶级互联网公司居然也这麽做,对於中国政府来说确实不怎麽好看。未来几年,我们肯定会看到,大型网络公司会逐渐关闭其涉嫌侵犯版权的网站。若果真如此,预计还会有很多像百度刚刚宣布的那种协议的出现,而当这些非法的音乐和视频服务被关闭後,相关公司应该会感受到一些痛楚。

一句话:百度最终签署正版音乐使用协议,说明清除中国互联网上的侵权内容正逐渐开始,这将使内容提供商受益,而使网络公司受伤。

Related postings 相关文章:

Baidu Flounders Abroad, Wastes Time With Microsoft Tie-Up 百度海外拓展 与微软合作纯属浪费时间

Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

Baidu Shake-Up Underscores Instability, Frustration 百度重组表明公司高层动荡及新产品受挫

News Digest: July 20, 2011

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on July 20. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) Launches Landmark Licensed Music Service (PRNewswire)

◙ Footwear JV Yougou Obtains RMB 3 Bln in Funding – Source (English article)

◙ LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) Signs Supply Contract With juwi GmbH (PRNewswire)

◙ Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD) Acquires Telegent Systems (PRNewswire)

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) to Report Q2 Financial Results on July 25 (PRNewswire)

Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职:昭示问题还在前方

The latest resignation of a top audit committee member in the solar sector, this time at LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), hints that major new storm clouds could be on the horizon for an industry already struggling with its worst ever downturn. LDK announced late on Monday in the US that Louis Hsieh, one of its independent directors who also happened to chair its audit committee and was a member of its corporate governance committee, has resigned for unspecified reasons after several years on the board. (company announcement) LDK’s announcement comes less than a week after an eerily similar one from another major player, Trina Solar (previous post), whose audit committee chairman, an independent director as well, also abruptly resigned without any further explanation. (company announcement) These two similar resignations so close together look very ominous, especially in light of the industry’s current woes, which have seen solar panel prices drop steadily for most of this year due to oversupply. One of my industry sources tells me word on the street is that many of these firms may have recorded sales to phantom customers during the industry’s brief boom in 2009 and 2010, hoping to earn a profit by selling that product at higher prices later when panel prices were still rising. If that were true, the current downturn may have left many of these companies with piles of inventory that have already officially been “sold” on their accounting books for much higher prices than current market rates. Whatever the case, I sense even more turbulence ahead for this already-reeling industry, which perhaps now faces the potential for its own set of accounting scandals.

Bottom line: The resignation of LDK Solar’s audit committee chairman, following a similar departure at a rival last week, points to a potential industry-wide accounting scandal in the struggling solar sector.

中国太阳能行业又有审计人员辞职了,这次是江西赛维LDK太阳能公司<LDK.N>。此事暗示整个行业新的乌云可能已不远。LDK周一晚在美国宣布,公司独立董事、公司治理委员会成员、审计委员会主席Louis Hsieh辞职,原因不详。无独有偶,天合光能<TSL.N>几天前刚刚宣布独立董事兼审计委员会主席突然离职,公司对辞职原因亦没有给出解释。两起辞职事件如此相似,时间如此接近,给人一种不祥的预感,尤其考虑到当前整个行业的困局。我的一名业内消息源向我透露坊间传闻,称2009和2010年行业向好时期,很多太阳能企业可能把一些对挂名客户(phantom customers)的销售记录在帐,希望随後价格上升时以更高的价格卖出产品。如果事实确实如此,那麽目前颓势可能让很多企业滞留大量库存,而在帐面显示上已是以很高的价格“卖出”了。无论到底是什麽情况,我认为太阳能行业将会有更多地震,眼下来看有爆发审计丑闻的可能。

一句话:继上周天合光能审计委员会主席辞职後,江西赛维LDK太阳能也宣布其审计委员会主席辞职,两件事双双指向同一种可能:挣扎不一的太阳能行业可能爆发会计丑闻。

Related postings 相关文章:

More Solar Woes at Trina, Renesola 昱辉阳光、天合光能:旧伤未去,新伤又来

Suntech, JA in Latest Solar Rumblings 尚德与晶澳动作频仍

Solar Makers Shine Hopes on New US Commerce Secretary 中国太阳能生产商寄望於新任美国商务部长

Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

It’s official: Less than two months after Chinese media first carried reports of a new Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) service that I said looked suspiciously like a Facebook-type SNS product (previous post), China’s most popular Web portal has announced the public beta testing launch of the new product, called Boke Qing in Chinese, or Blogging Light. (Chinese article) Sina’s own description of the new service, which ingeniously allows users to interlink new accounts with their existing accounts on its wildly popular Twitter-like Weibo product, says that Qing is designed to complement Weibo by providing users with the ability to post longer messages, as well as photos and other multimedia offerings. Does this sound a bit like Facebook? The beta site at qing.weibo.com says the service already has about 700,000 users, though I’ve no doubt that is probably a bit inflated. Still, considering Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) early success with its new SNS product, Google Plus, despite being years behind Facebook, I’d say this new Qing product, which smartly draws on Weibo’s huge user base, stands a strong chance of success and could quickly pose a major challenge to industry leaders Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Kaixin, as well as SNS products being developed by established net giants like Tencent (HKEx: 700). From a broader perspective, Qing will undoubtedly be coupled with Weibo into a single SNS business unit at Sina, which is hoping to quickly build up the company for a blockbuster IPO in the next two to three years. It’s still too early to say if Qing will be able to make big headway in the market, but I would say the chances are good that it could quickly catch up with and possibly even overtake Renren or Kaixin in the next couple of years.

Bottom line: Sina’s beta launch of a new SNS product, Qing, is the latest move to leverage its popular Weibo service, which could soon pose a challenge to SNS leaders Renren and Kaixin.

媒体一个多月前首次报导称,新浪<SINA.O>推出了轻博客,我当时说过,这项新服务看似像Facebook一类的社交网产品。新浪周一正式宣布启动轻博客公测版本。用户可使用新浪微博账户直接登录轻博客,两款产品已实现相互联通,据新浪描述称,轻博客是微博的补充,可以发布长文和组图,以及其他多媒体功能。这听起来是不是有点像Facebook?轻博客(qing.weibo.com)测试版网页称,该服务已拥有约70万名用户,我怀疑这可能有点言过其实。但鉴於谷歌<GOOG.O>在社交领域多年落後Facebook,而其新推出的社交产品Google Plus仍初获成功,我敢说,由於聪明地利用了新浪微博庞大用户群的优势,因此轻博客的成功机率很大,并且可能很快会对人人网<RENN.N>、开心网以及正研发社交产品的腾讯<0700.HK>等构成较大威胁。更宏观地看,轻博客无疑将与微博联手,成为新浪独立的社交网业务,在未来两到三年进行大规模首次公开募股(IPO)。现在谈轻博客是否能在该市场取得重大进展还为时过早,但我认为,轻博客未来一两年迅速赶上、甚至超越人人网和开心网的机率较大。

一句话:新浪启动最新社交产品轻博客公测版,是利用新浪微博杠杆效应的最新举措,可能很快会对人人网和开心网构成挑战。

Related postings 相关文章:

Sina’s Latest Weibo Move Looks Like SNS 新浪似要发展社交网站

Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

Weibo in Smart Telecom Tie-up, Silly English Move 微博与中国电信合作实属明智之举 推英文版纯属浪费时间

 

China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

Move over, QE II. Chinese banks, unsatisfied with the hundreds of billions of dollars they raised to bolster their balance sheets just two years ago, appear to be gearing up for Capital Raising II, with China Merchants Bank’s (HKEx: 3968 Shanghai: 600036) announcement that it will raise up to $5.4 billion through simultaneous rights offers in Hong Kong and Shanghai. (company announcement; English article) China Merchants is no doubt counting on the short memories of many investors, hoping they will forget that it announced a similar program almost exactly two  years ago to raise a more modest $2.6 billion. So if my math is correct, China Merchants will have raised about $8 billion through these two offerings — a staggering amount when you consider its market cap in Hong Kong is only about $9 billion. Analysts will tell you this new round of CR II, which will undoubtedly be followed by more similar announcements from other major Chinese banks, is designed to meet Beijing’s ever rising capital adequacy ratio requirements as it tries to cool a racing economy that got that way in large part due to excessive state-ordered lending at the height of the global financial crisis. But this latest capital raising by China Merchants is starting to looking increasingly like an outright recapitalization of Chinese banks, which are no doubt woefully unprepared for the economic downturn and resulting piles of bad debt that many believe are coming. The small bit of good news in this is that Beijing, as the majority shareholder of all the major banks, will ultimately foot most of the bill for this ongoing recapitalization. The bad news is that the banks’ minority shareholders will also have to pay part of the bill, and that these stocks are likely to take a beating in the months ahead.

Bottom line: China Merchants announcement of its second major fund-raising in just two years looks like an outright recapitalization, and underscores the shaky position of all Chinese banks.

新一轮量化宽松来了。中国银行业不满足於两年前数千亿美元的集资规模,如今似乎将再次进行融资。中国招商银行<600036.SS><3968.HK>宣布,将在香港和上海发行权利股,筹集54亿美元。招行无疑是寄望於许多投资者健忘,希望他们记不起该行在两年前曾宣布过类似计划,集资26亿美元。所以,如果我计算正确的话,招行两次筹集资金总额约为80亿美元–鉴於招行在香港市值仅约为90亿美元,上述募资规模确实惊人。分析师会告诉你,本次新一轮融资是为满足中国政府不断提高的资本充足率要求,中国其他大型银行无疑亦将宣布类似举措。中国正试图为其经济降温,中国出现这种局面很大程度是因为全球金融危机最严重时,中国政府要求增发贷款过多。但招行本次筹资日益像是中国银行业一次资本重组,中国银行业显然未对经济低迷做好充足准备,许多人认为,大量坏账即将出现。好消息是,中国政府和各银行大股东终将为此次资本重组埋单。坏消息是,银行小股东也将不得不承担一部分费用,这些银行股未来数月或遭重创。

一句话:时隔两年,中国招商银行再次宣布大规模融资,看似一次彻头彻尾的资本重组,凸显中国各银行的问题。

Related postings 相关文章:

China Readies Market for More Bank Begging 中资银行准备再筹资

ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

Cable Consolidation Moves Closer With New Umbrella Company 中国广播电视网络公司有望近期挂牌 有线网络整合步伐加快

My initial skepticism about China’s plans to consolidate its fragmented cable TV sector is rapidly fading, with local media now reporting the company created to consolidate the industry is set for official launch in July or August as the consolidation drive gains momentum. (Chinese article) The report cites an unnamed source discussing the official launch of the company, China Broadcasting Network Co, and adds that 19 provinces, or nearly two-thirds of the country, have consolidated their cable networks since the program began. It adds that China’s entire broadcasting industry now has revenue equal to about half that of the nation’s largest telco, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). If those numbers are correct that would give the industry annual revenue of more than $30 billion, which would be enough to create an impressive new entity if I could capture even a fraction of that sum. Even if the numbers are exaggerated, which I’m sure they are, the consolidation effort seems to be gaining some serious momentum and I’d say its chances for success must now be close to 90 percent. There’s no mention in the report of the potential for a future listing of such a new company, which would presumably be planned for the next 1-2 years. I would expect it to join the country’s other three major telcos with a listing in Hong Kong and probably a simultaneous listing in Shanghai. Such a company could be an interesting investment choice, requiring huge amounts of money over the short term to upgrade a national network of aging analog cable systems but providing big potential rewards once the system is updated by offering a wider array of channels as well as video on demand (VOD) and Internet services. The company’s success could also provide a huge boost for programming makers, both domestic and international, which are already seeing more business from China’s budding online video sector led by demand from the likes of Youku (NYSE: YOKU), Tudou and Tencent (HKEx: 700). (previous post)

Bottom line: The imminent formation of China’s new national cable TV operator is the latest sign of Beijing’s determination to consolidate the sector, pushing the chances for success of the campaign to 90 percent.

对中国打算整合有线电视业的计划我最初持怀疑态度,但这种疑虑如今在迅速消退。最近我看到有当地媒体报导,一家旨在促进有线网络整合的公司有望7月或者8月正式挂牌。报导援引消息人士的话称中国广播电视网络公司近期将正式挂牌,报导还称,中国已有至少19个省完成“一省一网”。报导亦表示,中国广电业2010年总收入约为中国最大电信公司中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>年营收的一半。如果这些数字是正确的,那麽这意味着该行业年收入超过300亿美元,即使有所夸大,有线网络整合似乎正获得一些前进势头,我预计现在其成功机率近90%。报导没有透露这家公司是否会在未来上市,但我估计上市也就是一两年的事,它可能也会和其他三家大型电信公司一样,在香港上市,可能还会同时在上海上市。这样的公司是个有趣的投资对象,而这家公司要在短时间内将全国的老化有线网络升级,是需要巨大资金的。但一旦系统升级完毕,得以提供更多频道、视频点播等服务,这家公司有望带来巨大回报。中国的网络视频行业正蓬勃发展,如业内领军者优酷<YOKU.N>、土豆和腾讯<0700.HK>等需求旺盛,因此这家公司的成功还会有利於国内外的节目制作方。

一句话:中国广播电视网络公司即将挂牌表明中国政府决心促进有线网络整合,令该行业整合成功机率提高至90%。

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Latest Sale Exposes Sputtering China Digital Revolution 上海文广股权低售凸显中国数字改革路漫漫

Youku, TCL Discover Hollywood in New Tie-Ups 优酷、TCL双双联手好莱坞大品牌

Cable Consolidation Crosses Provincial Lines 中国广电行业跨省并购案

Starbucks Wide Open for China Business with New JV 星巴克在云南建合资厂

Less than a year after announcing its first major initiative to nurture China’s domestic coffee-growing sector, Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) has come back with announcement of a more substative joint venture to buy coffee beans from the country for use both at home and abroad. (company announcement) This move is clearly as much about public relations as it is about coffee from southwest China’s Yunnan province, which undoubtedly has potential to compete with some of the world’s other top growing regions but is more significant because it carries the “made in China” label. Let’s take a look at the numbers: even with its current aggressive expansion plans, Starbucks, a relative latecomer to China, will  have a relatively modest 1,500 stores in the country by 2015, less than a tenth of its current global store count. By comparison, Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM), parent of the KFC and Pizza Hut chains, now derives a full one-third of its global revenue from China and counts the country as its second largest market after the US. (previous post) Anyone who does the math will see that obviously Starbucks sees lots of room for growth in China, especially if it can take a cue from Yum and McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) and localize its products to better suit China’s tea-drinking culture and develop more products at a middle price range to meet demand from less affluent smaller cities. Having a coffee-buying base in Yunnan could help to lower prices by buying a more local product, and would also be a strong selling point to Chinese eager to see their higher-end products like home-grown coffee compete on the global stage. On the whole, this joint venture looks like a good, cost effective way for Starbucks to tell China it’s committed to the country for the long run, as it seeks to replicate the success of Yum and McDonald’s in this fast growing market.

Bottom line: Starbucks’ new China joint venture underscores its commitment to the country, which could easily become its second largest global market over the next decade.

星巴克<SBUX.O>最近宣布,将成立合资厂,从中国购买咖啡豆,供应国内外。毫无疑问,云南有与其他咖啡豆种植区竞争的潜力,这一举动不仅仅是公关需要,更重要的是,在云南购买咖啡豆意味着“中国制造”。让我们看看这组数字:虽然星巴克的扩张计划野心勃勃,但在2015年前,星巴克在中国的店铺也将总共只有约1,500家,这还不及其在全球店铺数量的十分之一。相比之下,肯德基和必胜客的母公司百胜<YUM.N>收入的三分之一来自中国,并将中国视为其仅次于美国的第二大市场。任何明眼人都能看出来,星巴克在中国看到了很大的增长潜力,尤其是如果借鉴百胜和麦当劳的经验,将其产品本土化,以适应中国的饮茶文化,并开发更多中端价位的产品,满足不那麽富裕的较小城市的需求,发展潜力更是很大。在云南成立合资公司,购买当地产品,有助於降低其产品价格,对於那些希望看到本土咖啡进军全球市场的中国人来说,这也是一个有力的卖点。总的来说,对於想复制百胜和麦当劳在中国市场成功的星巴克来说,这个合资公司看似是星巴克向中国承诺致力於长期开辟该国市场的经济又有效的途径。

一句话:星巴克在中国成立新合资公司,意味着星巴克承诺要长期开辟中国市场,这可能让中国在未来十年成为其在全球的第二大市场。

Related postings 相关文章:

Starbucks, Maxim’s Divorce: Bitter Ending or Sweet Times Ahead? 星巴克与美心闹“离婚”

Yum Feasts on China, Still Eying Little Sheep 百胜依然觊觎小肥羊

Starbucks China Expansion: New Brew Needed to Serve Up Success

SMIC: Consolidation Ahead 中芯国际任命新高管 或有助於业内合并

The situation at SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI), China’s leading microchip maker, seems to finally be nearing resolution with the announcement that David Wang had resigned as CEO and is being replaced by Zhang Wenyi, who will fill the position on an acting basis and will also become SMIC’s new chairman after the the previous chairman’s death 3 weeks ago. (company announcement) I would expect to see a permanent new CEO named in the next few months, but what’s most interesting here is Zhang’s background: specifically his position as chairman of Huahong Group. (English article; Chinese article) Industry followers will know that Huahong is parent  of another chipmaker, Sino-Japanese joint venture Huahong NEC, which has struggled for years due to lack of scale and in the past was the frequent subject of merger talk with SMIC or venture-backed Grace Semiconductor, another smaller struggling player. In fact, David Wang was a former CEO of Huahong NEC, but was clearly only an executive at the company and probably had little clout to pursue an acquisition of his former company after arriving at SMIC in late 2009. Zhang, on the other hand, as chairman of both SMIC and Huahong, is in a perfect position to push such consolidation, and perhaps even bring Grace into the mix, as that company’s stakeholders have long wanted to sell off the investment. If all goes according to plan, I would expect to see SMIC merge with Huahong NEC in the next 12 months, and perhaps also with Grace during that time, to create the world’s clear number-three contract chipmaker. Handling such a difficult merger would be tough for the most experienced of executives, and will be even more difficult for whoever SMIC names as its new CEO. For that reason, I’d look for lots of problems with this company over the next two years, and high volatility in its share price as it seeks to find its new footing.

Bottom line: SMIC’s naming of new top management will bring its leadership crisis closer to resolution, but look for volatility in the next two years with an upcoming industry consolidation.

Note: For a more in-depth commentary I’ve written for the Global Times on the upheaval at SMIC, please click on the following link: SMIC Commentary

中芯国际近日发布公告称,王宁国(David Wang)已辞去CEO职务,张文义将出任主席兼代理CEO,公司管理层危机看似最终找到解决方案。我预计,几个月内中芯国际将任命正式的首席执行官。这其中最值得玩味的是张文义的背景,尤其是其作为华虹集团董事长的这一身份。华虹集团是另一家芯片制造商华虹NEC的母公司。因缺乏规模效应,该公司多年来一直困难重重,外界过去常常猜测该公司将与中芯国际或上海宏力半导体合并。事实上,王宁国以前曾担任华虹NEC的首席执行官,但实际上只是这家公司的一名高管,在2009年底加入中芯国际後,他对收购华虹NEC似乎没太大影响力。相反,作为中芯国际和华虹的主席,张文义是推动整合的完美人选,而且甚至还可能将上海宏力半导体也纳入其中,因为上海宏力半导体的股东一直希望能卖掉手中的股份。如果一切按计划进行,我估计未来12个月将可以看到芯国际和华虹NEC合并,可能同时也会和上海宏力半导体合并。对於公司高管来说,合并事宜操作起来将颇为艰难,对於未来的中芯国际CEO来说,可能更是如此。我估计这家公司在未来两年里会面临很多问题,股价会有很大波动。

一句话:中芯国际的高层人事任命将有助於结束其管理层危机,但由於业内整合,其股价未来两年料出现大幅波动。(

Related postings 相关文章:

SMIC Transition Begins, Instability Ahead 中芯国际高层大动荡 公司或将陷入混乱

SMIC Rumbles with Talk of Leadership Change 媒体风传中芯国际领导层变动

SMIC: Forging a Better Future?

Bohai Spill: A Slippery Mess for CNOOC 中海油的漏油危机

Chinese oil majors have long feasted on the country’s oil reserves, which Beijing essentially gives them for free, but CNOOC (HKEx: 883; NYSE: CEO) is quickly learning that nothing in life is really free as it and its partner grapple with a stubborn oil spill in the country’s Bohai Bay. In the latest setback for that project, being developed by ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) but 51 percent owned by CNOOC, China’s ocean watchdog has ordered the shutdown of two platforms at the field and an environmental official is calling the leak a “disaster” (English article). While ConocoPhillips is primarily responsible for dealing with this headache on the ground, which it appears to be doing responsibly with regular updates and efforts to plug the leaks, the problem will also deal a blow to CNOOC, as majority owner of a project which it has undoubtedly included in its future production plans. In a way, perhaps this development is fortuitous since ConocoPhillips is more skilled in crisis management than CNOOC or either of its peers, PetroChina (NYSE: PTR; HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857) and Sinopec (HKEx: 386; NYSE: SNP). But the crisis also should give investors cause for concern, as it’s inevitable that one or all three Chinese companies will inevitably have to deal with a similar crisis on its own in the next few years, and I suspect that none of the trio is well equipped to handle such an event when it happens, neither from a technical or public relations perspective. As these oil majors expand their operations abroad, a similar accident in less-friendly foreign waters could ultimately prove a disaster for any of the three, both in terms of clean-up costs and from a negative PR perspective. Let’s just hope that none has to deal with a BP (London: BP) Gulf of Mexico-type crisis anytime soon.

Bottom line: CNOOC’s ongoing oil spill in the Bohai Bay spotlights challenges that China’s oil majors will face with future such accidents, which they are ill equipped to handle.

中国石油巨头一直受益於中国的石油储备,因为这些储备属於由中国政府免费提供的。但中海油<0883.HK><CEO.N>及其合作夥伴在渤海漏油事件中发现,没有什麽是免费的。发生漏油的油田是由美国康菲石油公司<COP.N>进行开发,但51%的权益属於中海油,中国的海洋监管部门已经勒令关闭此处的两个钻井平台,一名环保官员称漏油事故是一场“灾难”。虽然要负主要责任的是康菲石油公司,但此事也无疑是对中海油的一个重创,中海油肯定将这个项目中纳入未来的发展计划。某种程度上来说,这种事态也是个幸运,因为康菲石油公司在危机处理方面肯定比中海油或者中石油<0857.HK> <PTR.N>以及中石化<0386.HK> <SNP.N>成熟。但这场危机也肯定会让投资者感到忧虑,因为未来几年,这几家公司肯定要自己独立处理类似的危机,但我觉得这几家公司都没有处理好类似危机的能力,无论是从技术上还是从公共关系上。随着这些石油公司在海外开拓市场,如果在一个不那麽友好的海域发生类似危机,那麽无论是从清理成本还是从公共关系的角度来说,这对於这些石油公司来说将必然是一场灾难。让我们祈祷这三家公司都不会遇到英国石油公司<BP.L>遇到的那种危机吧。

一句话:中海油的漏油事故暴露出,中国石油巨头企业未来若遇到此类事故时可能面临的挑战,而这些公司目前都没有能力妥善处理好这种危机。

Related postings 相关文章:

Sinopec, PetroChina Fight Back With ‘Pity Me’ Earnings 中石化、中石油上演苦肉计

PetroChina Seeks Global Integration 中石油试图融入全球市场

Sinopec Scandal Points to Big Oil Crackdown 中石化:“天价酒”事件实为敲山震虎?

 

Ctrip’s Latest Initiative: Insurance 携程新举动:保险

Online travel agent Ctrip’s (Nasdaq: CTRP) recent fondness for new initiatives seems to be going into overdrive, with the company’s latest move taking it into insurance. Chinese media are reporting Ctrip was recently approved by the insurance regulator to get into the insurance business (English article), and, while no details are given, I suspect it plans to offer travel insurance for buyers of its airline tickets, vacation packages and other trip-related services. Regular readers of this blog will know I’m a fan of Ctrip, which has a strong record of expanding into industries related to its core travel services business in a slow, carefully considered manner. This latest initiative, if it indeed is in the travel insurance business, would fit in with Ctrip’s previous growth strategy, and in that sense it looks like a good move. My major concern, however, is that this move seems to reflect a recent acceleration of new initiatives by Ctrip, in sharp contrast to a much slower approach in the past. The company’s list of other recent initiatives is quickly growing, including hotel brand management (previous post), group buying (previous post) and restaurants (previous post), among others. The danger in moving into so many new areas so quickly is that the company will lack the resources to adequately develop any particular one of these initiatives, giving them a bigger chance of failure and potentially diverting top management’s attention away from Ctrip’s core hotel reservation, air ticket and vacation package business. Hopefully we’ll see a slowdown in these new initiatives soon, as Ctrip focuses on building up its new slate of offerings into real contributors to its top and bottom lines.

Bottom line: Ctrip’s move into the insurance business looks good on the surface, but the company would be well advised to slow down its accelerating addition of new service offerings.

在线旅游服务公司携程<CTRP.O>最近频频推出新动作,如今又要进军保险业。据中国媒体报导,携程最近获得中国保监会批准,得以进军保险业,虽然报导中没有透露更多情况,但我估计携程将为在该网购买机票、旅游项目等服务的客户提供旅游保险。经常读这个博客的人知道,我喜欢携程,这家公司谨慎、缓慢地向一些与其核心业务相关的领域进军,而这一次,如果携程果然是要进入旅游保险业务,那麽这与其以前的增长策略是相符的。我主要担心的是,这似乎反映出携程近期在加快脚步推出新动作,而这与其之前的稳妥风格有点大相径庭。携程最近的动作越来越多,例如酒店品牌管理计划,并购计划,以及餐饮服务计划。进入这麽多新领域的危险在於,这家公司可能缺少足够的资源来推进这麽多计划,来推进其中任何一个计划,因此失败的机率也就可能更高,可能会让高层顾不上关注携程的核心业务,如酒店预订、机票、旅游项目等。希望携程能放慢一些脚步,着重发展那些能带来利润和收入的核心业务。

一句话:携程进入保险业的举动表面上看起来不错,但公司还应该放慢扩张的脚步。

Related postings 相关文章:

Ctrip Tries Its Hand at Brand Management 携程尝试品牌管理

Ctrip Makes Smart Trip Into Group Buying 携程也推团购:不仅只是赶时髦

Ctrip Finds Growth Recipe in Restaurants 携程:进军在线订餐