Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

China Takes Global PC Crown – But Does It Matter? 中国PC出货全球居冠 但有何意义?

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The inevitable as finally happened, as China overtook the US in the second quarter of this year to become the world’s biggest PC market both in terms of unit sales and revenue, according to new data from IDC. (English announcement) The only question is: what does it mean and does the PC element really matter,  as PCs are showing signs of becoming a sort of high-tech dinosaur, being rapidly replaced by lighter, more adaptable devices like smartphones and tablets computers. But first the data. According to IDC, PC makers shipped 18.5 million computers worth $11.9 billion to China in the second quarter, versus 17.7 million units worth $11.7 billion for the US. For anyone who’s doing the math, you can see that the average PC sold in China cost around $643, versus $661 for the US, meaning the difference in price wasn’t all that big for the two markets. But at the end of the day, the PC is probably a dying breed and will ultimately be replaced by an array of more specialized, portable devices much the way that desktop PCs have become all but obsolete due to the rise of laptops. As that happens, China will undoubtedly become a leader in many new product categories, at least in terms of sales, simply due to the sheer size of its market, much the way that it has in terms of Internet users and cellphone subscribers. But the recent rise of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), which overtook Lenovo (HKEx: 992) in terms of overall China sales (previous post), shows that China’s market for computing devices will become much more competitive as the equation changes, with global players fighting much more aggressively for a piece of this huge market. Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE: HPQ) planned sale of its PC business will also throw an interesting new element into this  equation, providing the buyer of that business with a strong launch pad to take an important piece of this fast-growing market.

Bottom line: China’s emergence as the world’s biggest PC market was inevitable due to its size, bringing a new dynamic as both domestic and international players fight for a bigger piece of the pie.

该来的终究来了。据IDC最新数据，中国今年第二季度无论是从出货额上还是出货量上均超过美国，成为全球最大的个人电脑（PC）市场。唯一的问题是：这有 何意义？PC真的重要吗？当今，PC正在某种程度上变成高科技恐龙，被更轻、更便捷的设备如智能手机与平板电脑等迅速替代。不过，还是先来说数据。根据IDC的数字，中国第二季度PC出货量达1,850万台，发货额共计119亿美元；相比之下，美国第二季PC发货量1,770 万台，发货额117亿美元。简单计算一下，在中国每台PC的平均售价约为643美元，美国则为661美元，也就是说在两个国家PC售价差别不大。但是归根到底，PC可能是垂死的一个产品系，最终会被一系列更加专业、便于携带的设备取代，正如目前由于笔记本电脑的崛起，台式机已经江河日下一样。按此形势，中国必定在很多类新产品上都是领头羊，至少在销量上会这样，原因仅仅在于中国市场规模实在是太大了，正如现在中国互联网用户与手机用户全球排名第一一样。但是苹果公司(AAPL.O)近期发威，最近在华整体销量超过本土品牌联想(0992.HK)，显示随着市场形势的改变，中国电脑类市场竞争还会更加激烈，国际品牌将会更加努力争取份额。惠普(HPQ.N)计划出售其PC业务，也会为这个变化的形式中加入新的元素，为买家冲击中国市场提供一个很好的启动基础。

一句话：中国市场规模巨大，成为全球最大PC市场是自然而然、不可避免的结果，在国内外企业竞争这块大蛋糕之际，为他们加入新的动力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Lenovo’s LePad: Finally a Game Plan That Could Work 联想乐Pad：终於拿出了像样的东西

◙ Acer and Dell: One Cuts, One Pastes 宏基裁人、戴尔建厂

Education: DeVry Deal Showcases Corporate Opportunity

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While big question marks loom over many of China’s growth industries like high-tech and alternate energy, one area that seems resistant to the turbulence is education, as evidenced by a new deal announced by a unit of US education services giant DeVry (NYSE: DV). The announcement is short and simple, saying the China licensee of Becker Professional, DeVry’s finance education arm, will provide education services to GE’s (NYSE: GE) China employees to bring them up to global accounting standards. (company announcement) I’ve said before that I’m quite bullish on the education sector, as Chinese and many Asians in general have shown a willingness to invest lavishly on themselves and their children to improve their chances in these ultra-competitive societies — even and perhaps especially in times of economic trouble. Chinese companies have been the first to realize and take advantage of this seemingly recession-proof demand, with industry leaders New Oriental Education (NYSE: EDU) and TAL Education (NYSE: XRS) both reporting their revenue rose around 60 percent in the second quarter, though each gave more conservative guidance for the third quarter. (previous post) Still, those kinds of numbers, when other sectors are reporting much slower growth, should certainly be catching the attention of major Western players like DeVry and Disney (NYSE: DIS), which last year officially launched a chain of Disney-branded English learning schools for pre-school and elementary school aged children. The corporate tie-up like the one just announced by DeVry is a sign of things to come, as Western companies and Chinese alike look to bring their employees up to international standards with this kind of educational corporate tie-up. As that happens, look for both the domestic and international players to keep notching strong growth in this market thirsty for education services.

Bottom line: DeVry’s new education services deal with GE China reflects continuing strong demand for such services from both Chinese consumers and businesses and bodes well for the sector.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ New Oriental Shows Why Education Pays 新东方告诉你为何教育会有回报

◙ China NY Stocks on Cusp of Comeback? 中国赴美上市公司股票即将触底反弹？

Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

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Signs of turbulence continue in China’s cutthroat and overinflated Internet space, with worrisome news coming from Kaixin, China’s second biggest social networking site (SNS), as well as Gaopeng, the group buying site operated by Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700). First Gaopeng. Despite its denials that anything is amiss, Gaopeng has just laid off 400 employees across its various locations, in what looks like the biggest in a steady stream of cuts that have made headlines in the Chinese media in recent weeks. (Chinese article) The company is facing intense competition from at least three major rivals, Lashou, Dianping and 55tuan, which collectively raised $500 million in venture funding earlier this year (previous post) and are clearly engaging in a cutthroat grab for share in this market that is certainly lucrative but lacks the size to support so many major players. I suspect that Groupon started up Gaopeng early this year to give itself a “China story” to please US investors in the run-up to its upcoming IPO. But now that it sees how cutthroat the market is, it could easily shutter Gapeng before the offering in a bid to hide what are undoubtedly some ugly financials from investors from this struggling joint venture. Meantime, Kaixin, which lost a race earlier this year with Renren (NYSE: RENN) to become China’s first publicly listed SNS, has broken a months-long silence to address recent reports of massive subscriber losses. The company’s low-key founder Cheng Binghao held an unusual media briefing in which he said Kaixin’s previous explosive growth rate is slowing to a more realistic level, and added the days of heady growth for China’s Internet may be finished. (Chinese article) Cheng said the company now has 117 million registered users, just behind Renren’s 124 million, though I suspect many of those are inactive, which Cheng hinted is the case. With that kind of a slowing growth story and the current general market turbulence, along with the threat of a new SNS service from Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) (previous post), I wouldn’t look for Kaixin to move ahead with its IPO until it has a better story to tell, which would be next year at the earliest.

Bottom line: Downbeat reports surrounding Gaopeng and Kaixin reflect a China Internet market in turmoil, with consolidation and few new IPOs likely through the rest of the year.

中国互联网急剧扩张的混乱状况持续，开心网和高朋网接连传来令人担忧的消息。先是美国Groupon和腾讯联合在华经营的团购网站–高朋网。尽管公司否认运营出现状况，但高朋网在各地站点已裁员400人，似乎是逐步裁员规模最大的一次，近几周高朋网裁员成为中国媒体热门焦点。高朋网面临团购市场竞争加剧的局面，大的竞争对手至少包括三家：拉手网、大众点评网和窝窝团，上述三家公司今年早些时候共募集5亿美元风险投资，也正积极投入团购市场的激烈厮杀。团购市场利润确实可观，但规模不足以支持如此多的大型团购网站。我怀疑，Groupon今年稍早成立高朋网时，是想给自己创造一个“中国故事”，从而在其IPO筹备阶段取悦美国投资者。但鉴于中国团购市场竞争激烈的现状，Groupon或在IPO前轻而易举地关闭高朋网，避免投资者看到这一合资公司中难看的财报。今年早些时候，开心网在赴美上市赛跑中输给人人网(RENN.N)，未能成为第一家在美国上市的社交网站。开心网打破一个月来的沉默，回应近期有关开心网用户大量流失的报导。开心网低调的创始人程炳皓罕见举行媒体吹风会，称开心网爆发性增长期已经过去，增长放缓至一个更实际的水平，并称中国互联网强势增长的时代或已结束。程炳皓透露，开心网现有1.17亿注册用户，稍低于人人网的1.24亿人，但我怀疑，其中许多并非活跃用户，程炳皓的表态似乎暗示了这一点。鉴于开心网用户增长放缓，目前市场普遍混乱，再加上新浪(SINA.O)微博的威胁，我认为，除非开心网能有更好的故事，否则不会推进其IPO，估计最早也要到明年了。

一句话：有关高朋网和开心网的负面消息表明，中国互联网市场现状混乱，今年内或将进行调整，不太可能有新的IPO。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Advertising Squeeze Continues, Slowdown Looms 广告支出初显放缓迹象

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

 

Suntech: Separating Good Solar from Bad

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Solar industry leader Suntech (NYSE: STP) has just released its latest quarterly results, which prove that times of crisis are a natural selector to separate the strong from the weak. (company announcement) While other companies have been sharply revising down their annual forecasts amid the industry’s worst ever downturn, Suntech’s revisions were far less severe, and it even forecast a sharp rebound in its gross margins in the third quarter as its situation stabilizes. The company slightly lowered its full-year revenue forecast to about $3 3 billion from a previous $3.4 billion, and actually maintained its full-year shipment target at 2.2 gigawatts worth of modules. Last month it showed it was aggressively moving to manage costs by terminating an expensive 10-year supply agreement with MEMC, negotiated five years ago when solar material prices were rising. (previous post) The company forecast more turbulence for the next few quarters, but clearly it has turned the corner by containing costs and using its market-leading position to steal sales from other weaker performers. Its strong performance contrasts sharply with LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), one of the industry’s weakest players, which last week shocked few with a massive downward revision in many of its second-quarter forecasts, including a 63 percent downgrade in its forecast for module shipments. (previous post) Suntech shares ended Monday down slightly, possibly due to a net loss in the second quarter on some one-time charges. But with its shares now trading near a 52-week low, like most of the industry, Suntech looks like a good bet to lead the sector out of its current downturn, set to not only survive but also emerge as a possible consolidator for some of its weaker peers with attractively low valuations.

Bottom line: Suntech’s latest results show that stronger companies are starting to emerge from the solar sector’s downturn, and could lead consolidation by buying up weaker players.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ LDK: An Exploding Star for a Sector in Turmoil

◙ Renesola Rights Plan: Consolidation Coming

◙ Trina, Ming Yang Kick Off New Wave of Energy Deals 天合光能、明阳风电掀起新一轮能源“订单潮

China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

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China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), under new leadership as long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou gets set to retire, is showing signs of new life on several fronts, including some of its best earnings in quite a while. The company reported its second-quarter profit rose 7 percent — a figure that might look boring by anyone else’s standards but marks a sharp improvement for a company that has reported low single-digit growth and even one decline for most of the past three years. (English article) The company credited the growth to revenue from stronger data services traffic, an area that China Mobile had neglected in the last two years after failing to win a 3G license based on globally developed technology and instead being forced to use a homegrown standard. After those two years of denial, China Mobile seems to finally be not only facing its less-than-ideal 3G reality but also embracing it, pushing hard for a deal to develop and offer a version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone based on its homegrown 3G standard. After welcoming Apple’s COO Tim Cook to its Beijing headquarters in June as part of those talks (previous post), China Mobile disclosed last week that none other than Apple chief Steve Jobs himself has joined the negotiations, indicating a deal is likely in the next 1-2 months and the company could offer its own 3G iPhones by the end of the year. Wang is also keeping up China Mobile’s pressure on the telecoms regulator to issue 4G licenses sooner rather than later, saying the company’s 4G trial networks in 6 major Chinese cities could be ready for commercialization by next year. (Chinese article) The commercial launch of such 4G service, which uses more reliable technology than China Mobile’s 3G network, would bring even more momentum back to China Mobile at the expense of smaller rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), and if all goes according to plan I could easily see China Mobile returning to double-digit profit growth as soon as the end of this year.

Bottom line: China Mobile is rapidly regaining  momentum under its new leadership, and could easily return to double-digit profit growth by the end of this year.

中国移动(0941.HK)董事长王建宙即将退休，在新领导层带领下，中移动在各方面显露出新成长迹象，包括近期财报表现出色。中移动财报显示，其第二季度利润同比增长约7%，这在其它公司看来或许表现平平，但过去三年中多数时候，中移动一直以个位数低幅增长，甚至出现一次亏损，因此这一增幅标志着其经营状况大幅改观。中移动将此归功于数据服务流量增加，中移动在两年前的3G牌照颁发中仅取得中国自主研发的TD-SCDMA标准後，一直未对数据服务领域给予重视。两年之後，中移动似乎终于面对并接受其差强人意的3G现实并积极应对，正努力争取达成协议，提供基于TD-SCDMA标准的苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone。苹果首席运营官库克（Tim Cook）6月到访中移动北京总部谈判，中移动上周披露，苹果首席执行官乔布斯亲自参与谈判，表明协议或在1-2个月内完成，中移动年底前或推出TD-SCDMA版3G iPhone。王建宙还将继续敦促工信部尽早发放4G牌照，称中移动在六大城市的TD-LTE试点网络预计明年可以实现商用。由于中国移动的4G技术比现有的3G技术可靠，服务商用化启动，4G的商用将对中移动更为有利，但代价是牺牲中国联通(0762.HK, CHU.N)和中国电信(0728.HK, CHA.N)等规模较小的竞争对手，如果一切依中移动的计划推进，我认为，中移动在年底前将轻而易举地恢复利润两位数增长。

一句话：中国移动在新管理层带领下，将迅速夺回市场份额，年底前将轻而易举重返利润两位数增长。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

◙ Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

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The central government, unwilling to directly tackle Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) as a monopoly despite its dominant position in the online search market, is instead attacking the company on several smaller fronts in a bid to curtail its influence. In one of two major developments, Chinese media are reporting that the telecoms regulator is preparing new online search regulations that would force all search engines to clearly state which of their results are paid and which are organic. (English article) Baidu currently mixes both types of results together, a practice many consider misleading, and charges advertisers a premium to have their paid results appear alongside organic results — something global leaders Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) stopped doing long ago after public criticism. The influential China Central Television (CCTV), China’s national broadcaster, has been leading the charge on this front, fanning consumer outrage by broadcasting a series of investigative reports on the issue. (English article) In the second development, another industry regulator has called on all major Web sites to stop offering pirated music, in what again looks like a shot aimed at Baidu, whose popular music swapping service is rife with pirated songs. Baidu last month signed its first-ever deal with threel major music labels to provide legal copies of their songs, but added it had no plans to shut down the more popular site offering pirated titles. (previous post) These latest two government campaigns appear to be Beijing’s attempt to create a more level playing field in the lucrative online search market by attacking two of Baidu’s most popular tactics, both of which are ethically questionable. While such moves may help global leaders like Google and Yahoo, which operate in more transparent fashion, they are unlikely to boost domestic search engines like those operated by Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), which probably also use questionable tactics similar to Baidu’s.

Bottom line: The central government appears to be launching a campaign to rein in monopolistic Baidu, but will need to do more to create a more level playing field in online search.

对于百度(BIDU.O)在中国网络搜索市场上一家独大的局面，政府虽不愿直接开刀，但为限制其影响力，似乎已选择在一些小的方面敲打百度了，就以最近两个较大的事件为例来说明问题。其一，据中国媒体报导，电信监管机构正准备出台在线搜索新规，迫使所有搜索引擎明确列出哪些是付费搜索结果、哪些是自然搜索结果。目前百度是把两种结果混在一起，容易造成误解，这种做法因遭非议，早已被谷歌(GOOG.O)与雅虎(YHOO.O)等弃用。中国中央电视台在炮轰百度问题上打起头阵，针对百度相关问题播报了大量的调查性报导，鼓动公众情绪。 第二例，另一家行业监管机构要求各大网站停止提供盗版音乐，此举看起来又是针对百度，人气很高的百度音乐搜索服务充斥着盗版歌曲。百度上月与三大唱片公司签署正版音乐使用协议，为用户提供合法音乐内容，但百度补充说无意关闭人气更高的、提供盗版音乐下载的音乐搜索服务。政府近来这两大举措出击百度两种受欢迎的应用，其意似乎在于为在线搜索市场创造更加平等的竞争环境。此类举措可能让操作较为透明的谷歌与雅虎等全球巨头渔翁得利，但国内搜索引擎，如腾讯(0700.HK)与搜狐(SOHU.O)等，恐怕难得到好处。

一句话：政府似乎开始出招修理一家独大的百度，但要想创造网络搜索市场竞争氛围更加公平，政府还要拿出更多行动。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

◙ After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

China Car Brands Look Like One-Hit Wonders

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It’s Monday morning, which means there’s not too much news in the market yet and instead it’s a good time for one of my period looks at the broader auto industry. A wide array of new data is out on July sales, which show the continuing decline of China’s top 3 independent auto brands, BYD (HKEx: 1211), Chery and Geely (HKEx: 165). BYD’s top-selling model, the F3, continued its plunge in July, with sales down 41 percent from a year earlier. Sales for Chery’s top model, the QQ, grew just 0.9 percent, lagging the broader market and causing it to lose share. Geely doesn’t have a model in the top 20, but its overall sales fell 6.3 percent in July, a month when overall passenger vehicle sales rose 12 percent. The stumbling of these top 3 domestic brands bears a striking resemblance to a similar trend from six or seven years ago, when domestic cellphone makers like TCL (HKEx: 2618) and Ningbo Bird suddenly emerged to challenge the then-dominant positions of market leaders Nokia, Motorola and Samsung. But in that instance the domestic firms soon fell almost as quickly as they rose, never to return in most cases. The reason was relatively simple: they all soared to prominence on the strength of one or two popular models that captured the public’s interest. But then they failed to follow with more popular models in an industry where product life-cycles typically run around 2-3 years, causing them to quickly fade. The same now appears to be happening with these domestic car makers. Both BYD and Chery found quick success with the F3 and QQ, respectively, but are now struggling to develop popular new models as these successful ones near the end of their life cycles. If they fail to find other new hits soon, they could easily find themselves following in the footsteps of faded names like Ningbo Bird and TCL.

Bottom line: Domestic Chinese car brands Geely, BYD and Chery face a slow decline into irrelevance unless they can develop new models to replace their fast-fading older popular ones.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Ford Comments Signal Accelerating Price Pressure 福特暗示中国车市价格压力加剧

◙ Nissan Jumps on China Expansion Bandwagon, Overcapacity Ahead 日产加入中国市场扩张潮 未来料产能过剩

◙ BYD Toots Electric Horn in Shenzhen 比亚迪在深圳奏响电动汽车号角

LDK: An Exploding Star for a Sector in Turmoil

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The bloodbath also known as China’s alternate energy sector is nearing the end of its worst reporting season on record, and newly updated guidance from problem-plagued LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) should provide a spectacular finale to the show. (company announcement) The company won’t release final figures until the end of this month, but it has revised down all of its previous forecasts for the second quarter by 20 percent or more, including a staggering 63 percent downward revision in shipments of modules, the final product in the solar energy production chain. At the same time, its gross margins tumbled to about 2 percent from a previous forecast of about 24 percent, and it wrote off $60 million in inventory, which is the company’s way of preparing the market for a massive net loss when it releases its actual results. The company made its announcement after New York markets closed on Thursday, and not surprisingly its shares were down 21 percent in after hours trading. LDK’s dismal report follows downbeat results from nearly everyone, including the most recent forecast-missing figures from Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) (company announcement). Despite signs that the downturn has bottomed, severely depressed valuations this week prompted mid-sized player Renesola (NYSE: SOL) to approve a shareholder rights plan, often called a poison pill designed to prevent hostile takeovers, in a sign that we’re likely to see some consolidation in the months ahead for this bloated sector. Such consolidation would mean smaller companies like Renesola could become acquisition targets. But major money losers like LDK are likely to find little interest from potential buyers, forcing them to sell off assets or even to file for bankruptcy if they run out of funds.

Bottom line: LDK Solar’s sharply lowered Q2 guidance reveals a company on the brink of crisis, boding poorly for its future as the broader solar sector struggles to emerge from its current downturn.

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◙ Renesola Rights Plan: Consolidation Coming

◙ LDK: Cash Crunch Looming? 赛维LDK即将囊中羞涩？

◙ Trina, Ming Yang Kick Off New Wave of Energy Deals 天合光能、明阳风电掀起新一轮能源“订单潮

Coke’s China Formula: A Pulpy and a Smile 可口可乐入乡随俗显成效

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Coca Cola (NYSE: KO) has made global headlines with its announcement that it will invest $4 billion in China over the next 3 years, as it soaks up more business in the nation’s smaller cites with its popular and affordable drinks. (company announcement) The figure certainly accomplished its mission as an attention grabber, and it’s easy to see why. While sales in most major global markets sputter as the world economy struggles out of recession, Coke notched 21 percent growth in China in the first half of the year with unit sales surpassing 1 billion — equal to its annual sales for the market just 5 years ago. Clearly there’s plenty of room for growth, as Coke, despite its position as China’s largest software seller, still only has a relatively modest 17 percent of the market. What’s most interesting to me in this story is the fact that earlier this year Coke scored an unusual first in China with Minute Maid Pulpy, which claimed the honor of becoming the company’s first billion-dollar drink developed outside the US. (company announcement) I’ll admit to being a fan of Pulpy myself, frequently consuming this drink that at least superficially seems a bit healthier than Coke and no doubt is attractive to consumers in the country that gave the world mandarin oranges. Coke is clearly moving in step with other major consumer brands like fast food operators KFC (NYSE: YUM) and McDonalds (NYSE: MCD), which have developed a strong stable of products suited to local tastes, often providing stronger platforms for growth than their traditional offerings created in Western markets. Its latest mega investment testifies to Coke’s realization that such innovations are key to keeping its growth alive, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it maintain the 20-plus percent growth rates in China into at least the next 2-3 years.

Bottom line: Coke’s $4 billion commitment to China underscores the huge success it has had in the market, and the enormous potential remaining for future growth.

可口可乐(KO.N)宣布未来三年将在中国增加投资40亿美元，因其在中小城市业务迅速扩张。这则消息使得可口可乐成为媒体焦点，它这麽做其实也很容易理解。全球经济迟滞之际，可口可乐在全球多数主要市场的销售业绩欠佳，但今年上半年在中国的销售则增长了21%，销量超过了10亿瓶，五年前这是在中国市场的全年销量。显然，可口可乐在中国还有很大的发展空间，虽然是在中国的软饮销售冠军，但市占率也才17%。而我最关注的是，可口可乐在中国推出的品牌“美汁源”，跻身其销售额过10亿美元的品牌行列，是可口可乐在美国以外地区开发的品牌首次销售达到10亿美元级别。我本人也常常喜欢喝“美汁源”，至少从表面上看，这比可乐要健康一些吧，这也无疑受到了中国消费者的欢迎。象肯德基(YUM.N)和麦当劳(MCD.N)这些全球知名品牌那样，可口可乐也试图迎合当地消费者口味、开发独特产品，开辟成长机遇，而非单调沿用在西方市场创立的产品系列。可口可乐此次在中国的大手笔投资，表明它已经意识到，创新是保持成长的关键。未来两三年，若可口可乐在中国能保持20%以上的增长率，我不会感到奇怪。

一句话：可口可乐在中国大手笔40亿美元投资计划，印证其在中国市场的成功，并预示其未来发展潜力。

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◙ Philips Taps Electric Rice Bowl With Shanghai Deal 飞利浦收购奔腾 进军中国电饭煲市场

◙  Unilever Helps China See the Light Behind Free Markets 联合利华帮助中国向市场经济迈进

Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

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Leading Chinese PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) has finally discovered a winning formula, beating market expectations with a profit that doubled in its latest fiscal quarter on the back of strong sales in its core emerging markets business. (company announcement) Unfortunately for Lenovo, however, it has discovered the formula just a little too late, underscoring its record for late arrivals to new product areas and boding poorly for its future. The company boasted that six years after its landmark purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) struggling PC business, it has finally managed to turn that unit around and posted a $77 million profit for its developed markets business in the quarter ended June 30. But it was less boastful about the fact that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), in a much shorter period, has come from nowhere to overtake it in terms of revenue in its home China market, which accounts for about half of Lenovo’s sales. (previous post) The company was also more muted on its recently launched smartphone and tablet PC offerings, the LePhone and LePad, which are clearly two important products of the future as people move away from traditional laptops and desktop models towards lighter, more mobile computing. According to calculations in one Chinese meida report, the company has sold just over 700,000 LePhones in the last 3 quarters in China (Chinese article), and the company itself admitted to an anemic 80,000 LePads sold in the latest quarter. (English article) That compares with Apple’s estimated 1 million iPads sold in China in the latest quarter alone, although obviously Apple has a head start there. Still, considering Lenovo’s weak performance for these key new products in its own home market, where it has numerous advantages over Apple, its latest seemingly strong results point to strong headwinds in the future, both at home and abroad.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s strong profit in its latest quarterly results masks serious weakness in the key future growth areas of smartphones and tablet PCs.

中国电脑巨头联想(0992.HK)终于发现了制胜法宝，公布其季度净利超乎预期地增长一倍，这主要得益于其核心的新兴市场业务强劲。但不幸的是，联想发现这个法宝的时机有点太晚了，正如联想在进军新产品领域方面常常都会晚一步，这对未来可不是个好兆头。联想收购IBM个人电脑(PC)业务已六年，终于已扭亏为盈，在截至6月30日的会计年度，联想成熟市场业务贡献了7,700万美元的利润，但这与苹果相比就不值一提了。苹果在比这短得多的时间里，在中国市场几乎从零开始，在该市场销售已经超过联想。此外，联想最近推出的智能手机和平板电脑，市场反响平平，而这两个产品代表着未来发展方向。据中国媒体报导，联想在过去三个季度中乐Phone销量仅略超出70万支，而联想也表示上季乐Pad仅卖出8万台。与之形成鲜明对比的是，单是上季苹果iPad在中国销量就达到100万台，当然苹果在平板电脑市场是占了先机的。中国是联想的本土市场，本应享有天时地利，其新产品表现却远远不及苹果，因此尽管其最新季度财报貌似强劲，未来不管在国内市场，还是国际市场，都还面临沉重压力。

一句话：联想最新季度获利强劲，但千万别忽略其在智能手机和平板电脑领域的薄弱表现。

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◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

Advertising Squeeze Continues, Slowdown Looms 广告支出初显放缓迹象

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Ad spending looks strong in the latest quarterly results of Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), Phoenix New Media (Nasdaq: FENG) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES), but big questions remain about the future as the portals continue to squeeze their advertisers for more and more money. Thursday saw a flood of earnings come out for major US-listed China firms, providing the perfect time to take a broader look at ad spending that is so crucial to many of these companies’ top and bottom lines. Leading Web portal Sina saw its ad revenues rise 26 percent, while NetEase saw a 16 percent gain and Phoenix ad revenues jumped a whopping 150 percent. (Sina results; NetEase results; Phoenix results) Sina and Phoenix both also said they expect advertising revenue growth to continue at a similar rate in the third quarter. But what’s interesting here is that Phoenix, the only company to provide more color on its ad revenues, said a major portion of its big ad revenue jump came from increased spending by existing advertisers who spent 82 percent more in this year’s second quarter on average versus a year earlier. Leading search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which derives nearly all its revenue from advertisers, made similar comments last month, saying its customers spent 50 percent more in this year’s second quarter versus a year earlier. (previous post) This kind of sharp spending increase by individual customers reflects stiff competition as companies battle for market share, and a growing number of executives who are seeing their costs soar have said the trend is unsustainable. Barring a sudden collapse, which looks unlikely based on forecasts from Sina and Phoenix, the boosted ad spending looks set to continue at least into the third quarter. But I would expect to see a slowdown by the end of the year as fatigue starts to infect spent-out advertisers, followed by an accelerating downturn into 2012.

Bottom line: Results from Sina, NetEase and Phoenix New Media show healthy ad spending will continue through the third quarter, but advertiser fatigue will lead to a slowdown by year end.

新浪<SINA.O>、凤凰新媒体<FENG.N>和网易<NTES.O>最新季度财报显示，广告支出大幅增长，但由於各门户网站为了增加收入，继续努力从广告商身上赚取更多费用，未来仍将面临较大问题。赴美上市的大型中国企业周四纷纷发布财报，为更广泛地审视广告支出创造完美时机。广告支出对许多公司的营收和利润至关重要。今年第二季度，新浪广告收入增长26%，网易和凤凰分别增长16%和150%。新浪和凤凰均称，预计第三季度广告收入将有类似增幅。但有意思的是，凤凰称其广告收入大幅增长，主要归功于现有广告商提高支出，第二季度同比平均增加82%。中国搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>几乎所有收入均来自广告投放，上月也发表过类似评论，称其客户在今年第二季度广告支出同比增加50%。个人客户广告支出大幅增加表明，各公司正加紧争夺市场份额，竞争日益激烈。越来越多的高管注意到成本大幅上涨，称这一势头不可持续。除非出现意外情况，广告支出增长料将持续至第三季度。但我认为，这一增势年底将放缓，广告商支出将初显疲态，2012年广告支出将加速放缓。

一句话：新浪、网易和凤凰新媒体的财报显示，良性广告支出将持续至第三季度，但广告商疲态将导致广告支出年底放缓。

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