Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

E-Payments: Lots of Noise But Little Space

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There’s been lots of noise in the electronic payments space lately, as China gets ready to issue its second round of licenses to domestic players (Chinese article) and accepts applications from foreign firms (Chinese article), with eBay’s (Nasdaq: EBAY) PayPal most prominent among those applying. (English article) Into that mix we can also add this week’s news that Alipay, the e-payments arm of Alibaba Group, has purchased the China assets of OnCard Group International (Sydney: ONC), a small Australian firm that specializes in payments for plane tickets. In my view, all this noise is exactly that: lots of noise with little or no importance for the future. When you look at developed markets like the US or Europe, e-payments in both areas are dominated by credit card issuers Visa (NYSE: V) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA), which also own the top global electronic networks linking up many of the world’s banks. The only niche player that has come even close to competing with them is PayPal. So let’s translate that equation to China. In terms of Visa and MasterCard equivalents, the clear parallel is UnionPay, which operates a similar network and is backed by all of China’s top banks. (previous post) That means that MAYBE there is room for one or two more players at the most, meaning all these licenses now being awarded will ultimately be meaningless. PayPal would clearly like to take a similar position in China to its global position, and AliPay is certainly a leading candidate to become a major player, drawing on its tight connections to Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688), China’s B2B commerce leader, and Taobao, a leading B2C site. AliPay’s acquisition of OnCard’s China assets looks interesting, until one looks further and sees that OnCard itself is a tiny company with a market cap of only $30 million. But regardless, look for nearly all of these new e-payment licenses to be business dead-ends, with only one or possibly two players surviving in a space that will ultimately be dominated by UnionPay and credit card issuers like Visa and MasterCard.

Bottom line: China’s electronic payments sector will ultimately be dominated by UnionPay and other credit card companies, leaving most other e-payments licensees bankrupt.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ New UnionPay Tie-Up Boosts US Presence in IPO Run-up 中国银联携手US Bancorp 未来有望两地上市

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场，研发时尚型PC

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There’s a few interesting news bits out there on Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which sum up its interesting search for direction in a brave new world where its biggest rival, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is leaving the PC business altogether and its new top rival now appears to be Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). In the first news bit, Chinese media are quoting a Lenovo executive saying his company is on track to become Russia’s largest PC seller in the next two years. (English article) The second bit has Lenovo trying to spiff up its image by announcing a chic new line of ultra-portable laptops, clearly more aimed at developed markets (company announcement), while the third bit cites unnamed sources saying Lenovo’s new game console, the eeDoo, won’t debut on schedule this month for unspecified reasons. (English article) The Russian campaign is clearly a smart and necessary move, as that market, one of the world’s five BRICS, is the kind of place where Lenovo can best leverage its expertise as a emerging specialist and lay the foundation for solid future growth. The new line of ultra-light computers, aimed more at developed markets, is a nod to the future, taking Lenovo head-to-head with Apple, which currently dominates that space, both in terms of chic and ultra-portability. If Lenovo wants to compete in developed markets it will need to make more moves like this, though I personally think this particular campaign will flop. After all, no one associates Lenovo with chic, at least not yet, and it will take more than a few new PC models to change that image. As to the game console business, my response is a resounding “Who cares?” Lenovo clearly wants to diversify its products to compete in as many computing areas as possible,  but the console business is a dying animal that Lenovo should ignore and focus on products with a brighter future.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s campaign to win Russia is a bold and necessary step to confirm its place as the world’s top emerging markets PC maker, but its bid to become a fashion leader looks misguided.

最近有几则关于联想公司的消息耐人寻味，联想看似正在探索公司发展的新方向。随着惠普剥离个人电脑业务，联想新的最大竞争对手似乎换成了苹果。第一则消息称，中国媒体援引联想高管的报导称，联想将努力在两年後成为俄罗斯最大的个人电脑卖家。第二则消息称，联想宣布一系列超级轻薄的笔记本电脑，这明显是瞄准了发达国家市场；联想尝试以此转变公司形象。第三则消息援引未具名的消息人士称，联想的新游戏机eeDoo本月将不会如期上市，但没有透露具体原因。进军俄罗斯显然是明智之举，也很有必要。在俄罗斯市场，联想能够最大限度地发挥自身的专家优势，并为将来的稳步成长打下基础。以发达国家市场为主打的最新系列超轻薄电脑是对未来的试探，将联想推向与苹果正面竞争的舞台，当前，苹果主导这个市场。如果联想希望在发达国家市场竞争，将需要在这方面多做努力，不过我个人认为本次活动将落败。毕竟还没有人，至少现在还没有人将联想和时尚型产品联系到一起。联想需要推出多款新机型来改变这一形象。至于游戏机业务，我的感觉是“谁去关心它？”，联想显然是希望以多元化产品在尽可能多的科技领域投入市场竞争，但是游戏机业务是个夕阳产业，联想应该对其敬而远之，聚焦于具有更光明未来的产品。

一句话：联想希望赢得俄罗斯市场的举动很大胆、也很有必要，是证明其全球最大新兴市场个人电脑生产商地位的重要一步，但公司希望成为流行科技产品行业领导者的努力看似有些误入歧途。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

News Digest: September 6, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 6. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China Group Buy Sites Near 3,000, Top 10 All Losing Money (Chinese article)

◙ Alipay Acquires OnCard’s (Sydney: ONC) China Subsidiary (English article)

◙ LG Display (Seoul: 034220) CEO Confirms Work Delayed on 8.5 Gen China LCD Plant (Chinese article)

◙ Sino-Ocean (HKEx: 3377) and KKR Announce China Real Estate Investment Platform (Businesswire)

◙ Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD) to Invest in a Venture Capital Fund (PRNewswire)

Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

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I don’t know whether to call Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) latest series of initiatives smart or desperate, as we’re not getting quite enough information just yet to make an informed decision about upcoming plans to launch its own mobile operating system (English article) and revamp its online homepage. (English article) In my view, both of these major new initiatives, which have the potential to greatly help or harm Baidu, are driven at least partly by its realization that Beijing anti-trust regulators are watching it closely, and that it needs to quickly find some new businesses in case those regulators ever decide to take anti-trust action against it. That said, both of these new initiatives are fraught with risk, and Baidu’s past record of poor execution outside its core search area makes me think both are more likely to fail than succeed. From what I’ve read in media reports, Baidu’s home page revamp looks aimed at getting more users to register on the site, allowing Baidu to sell them a range of new products it is trying to develop to diversify beyond search. In announcing the revamp, Baidu chief Robin Li openly admitted the changes may drive some Web surfers to its competitors, and perhaps he’s even hoping some of the lower-quality users may leave to make his company look less like a monopoly. As to the new mobile operating system, this looks like Baidu trying to imitate much larger global rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), whose Android has quickly risen to become the world’s top smartphone OS. On this topic, Baidu seems to be a bit late coming to the game, but could perhaps be helped by Google’s recent plan to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), which seems to be alienating many other Android smartphone makers that believe Google will give special  treatment to Motorola. That development may offer an oppurtunity for Baidu, which could find potential interest for its mobile OS especially among domestic smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. But I wouldn’t bet money on success for either the new OS or Baidu’s new homepage.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new homepage and mobile OS initiatives are its latest attempts to divert attention from its near monopoly status in online search, and both stand a good chance of failure.

百度(BIDU.O)计划推出手机操作系统，并对网站主页进行改版。因为了解到的信息不足，我不知道应该把百度近期的这些举动称为明智之举还是绝望中抓稻草。这两项重大举措或许让百度获益匪浅，也有可能让百度遭受重大冲击。不过，我认为至少部分可归因于百度已经意识到，政府反垄断监管机构正密切关注其业务，公司需要迅速开发新业务，以规避监管机构决定对其采取不利行动的风险。也就是说，百度两大新举措都伴有风险。鉴于百度此前在核心搜索业务以外的业务表现欠佳，我认为这两项新尝试失败的机率较大。我看到的媒体报导称，百度主页改版旨在吸引更多用户注册，从而推销除搜索以外的一系列新产品，实乃对业务多元化的尝试。百度董事长李彦宏在宣布网页改版时公开承认，改版或将一些用户推向竞争对手，他甚至希望，一些低质量的用户能因此离去，从而让百度看起来不那麽像垄断企业。至于新的手机操作系统，百度似乎想模仿谷歌(GOOG.O)，谷歌的Android系统已经迅速成长为全球顶级智能手机操作系统。在这方面，百度似乎有些後知後觉，但谷歌近期收购摩托罗拉移动(MMI.N)可能会对百度有利。谷歌的收购行动可能令其它Android手机厂商认为，谷歌将为摩托罗拉提供特别优惠，因此疏远谷歌。中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)和华为等本土智能手机制造商或对百度的移动操作系统感兴趣。然而，我还是不敢保证，百度新推出的手机操作系统和主页改版一定会成功。

一句话：百度主页改版，以及推出手机操作系统，是百度转移监管机构对其垄断地位关注的最新尝试，两项举措最终失败的可能性都很大。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

 

Solar Buzz at German Show on New Tech, M&A

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My headline for this item may be a little misleading, as I’m sitting here having my morning coffee in Shanghai writing it while speculating on what will happen at one of the world’s top solar energy shows that kicks off today in Germany. All the big Chinese names, including Suntech (NYSE: STP), Trina (NYSE: TSL), Yingli (NYSE: YGE) and many others, are attending the show this week in Hamburg, in a rare event that will bring together many of the sector’s top executives in a single place at a single time. (event homepage) Event materials and the flood of company press releases coming out this week are filled with upbeat talk of improving technology, which is helping the sector gain momentum, especially in markets with strong government incentives. What’s receiving little or no mention, however, is the industry’s current state of malaise, as it suffers through its worst-ever downturn amid slumping demand and overcapacity that has seen many weaker industry players, such as LDK (NYSE: LDK), sink into the red. While technology is indeed improving and will be widely discussed in public forums at the Hamburg event, I have no doubt that M&A will also be a regular topic of discussion between top company executives in more private venues and over drinks and other meetings out of public view. Renesola (NYSE: SOL), a mid-sized player in reasonably good health, already alerted the markets that it’s open to being acquired when it adopted a so-called “poison pill” plan last month to prevent a hostile takeover. (previous post) Other mid-sized players, such as JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO), could also look like good acquisition targets, as the entire sector suffers from a stock market sell-off that has pushed share prices to very attractive levels. With so many executives in one place at one time, this event is the perfect starting place for talks on much-needed consolidation, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see announcements of the first round of M&A coming by the end of this year.

Bottom line: M&A is likely to be a common theme at a major solar event this week in Germany, with the first round of resulting deals likely to be announced by year-end.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Suntech: Separating Good Solar from Bad

◙ LDK: An Exploding Star for a Sector in Turmoil

◙ Renesola Rights Plan: Consolidation Coming

 

Beijing Sends Mixed EV Signals 中国应推进电动车基础设施建设和宣传

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The central government was sending mixed signals about its future plans for electric vehicles (EVs) at an auto event over the weekend, on the one hand tightening current incentives for EV sales but at the same time saying it is studying more measures to boost the struggling program. What this tells me is that China’s ambitious program to put 1 million EVs on the road by 2015 is in a state of disarray, with few such vehicles on the road today despite lots of government talk. Let’s review the latest developments, which saw one Finance Ministry official at the event in Tianjin saying fuel efficiency standards were being raised for EVs to qualify for a government subsidy of 3,000 yuan per vehicle, meaning less cars will now qualify in the program. (English article) At the same time, other officials at the event said Beijing is studying other ways to boost the struggling EV sector through means like lowering taxes on vehicles and key components. My response to all this is that Beijing needs to step back and look at the real reason why China’s EV makers have made so little progress to date: a lack of infrastructure for vehicle charging and maintenance, and lack of an education campaign to tell the public about these vehicles and ease their concerns over operational and charging issues. If Beijing really wants this program to succeed, it should work with local governments to offer incentives for big names like PetroChina (HKEx: 857; Shanghai: 601857; NYSE: PTR) and Sinopec (HKEx: 386; NYSE: SNP) to add charging stations to many of their urban traditional petrol stations. It should also join hands with EV makers like BYD (HKEx: 1211) and SAIC (Shanghai: 600104) and create a national campaign to educate the public about their vehicles, including information on buying incentives, maintenance and charging, and the environmental advantages of such vehicles. Only through these kinds of coordinated, national efforts, led by Beijing working with local governments and industry, will China’s grand EV plans stand any chance of success.

Bottom line: China’s grand EV dreams are in a state of disarray, with stronger leadership needed from Beijing to foster infrastructure development and education.

中国政府在周末车展上对电动车发展计划发出不同的信号，一方面表示将收紧现有电动车销售刺激政策，另一方面却称，正在研究制定更多措施，促进电动车项目发展。我的感觉是，中国希望2015年有100万辆电动车上路的计划处于混乱状态，尽管政府一再谈论该项目，迄今国内鲜有电动车上路。回顾一下该项目的最新进展，中国财政部一名官员在天津车展上称，正在对享有政府补助资格的电动车提高节能标准，这意味着目前符合补贴标准的电动车将减少。政府对每辆电动车补贴3,000元。与此同时，另有官员在车展上称，政府正在研究包括对电动车和关键零部件减税在内的其它方案，以推动电动车产业发展。我的看法是，中国政府需要退後一步，审视一下中国电动车制造迄今进展缓慢的真正原因：缺少充电站和维修站等基础设施，面向公众的电动车宣传不够，未能缓解公众对电动车操作和充电问题的疑虑。如果中国政府确实希望电动车项目取得成功，就应该与地方政府一道，向中石油(601857.SS; 0857.HK; PTR.N)、中石化(0386.HK; SNP.N)等大公司提供补贴，在传统市内加油站基础上，增设充电站。政府还应与比亚迪(1211.HK)和上汽(600104.SS)等电动车制造商联手，在全国进行电动车宣传活动，让公众了解电动车购置补贴、维护和充电及环保等方面的信息。只有通过中央政府牵头，地方政府和行业在全国的配合，中国宏伟的电动车计划才有望成功。

一句话：中国电动车计划陷入混乱状态，应在中央政府带领下，推进基础设施建设和宣传教育活动。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hertz, GE Give Jolt to BYD Electric Cars 赫兹新项目为比亚迪“加油

◙ BYD Toots Electric Horn in Shenzhen 比亚迪在深圳奏响电动汽车号角

◙ Shanghai Support to Boost SAIC’s EV Hopes 政府支持有助上汽新能源车战略

News Digest: September 3-5, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on Sept 3-5. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ China Auto Sales Growth to Slow to About 5% in 2011, NDRC Researcher Says (English article)

◙ China’s Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) offers glimpse of new mobile OS (English article)

◙ Home Inns Motel 168 Acquisition Gets Anti-Trust Approval, Seen Closing by End Q3 (PRNewswire)

◙ ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to Suspend Production at Peng Lai Field (Businesswire)

◙ Phoenix New Media (NYSE: FENG) Launches Original Web Series (PRNewswire)

China Internet Bubble Sees Vancl Dressing Down 中国互联网泡沫见证凡客裁员

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It seems that group buying Internet site Gaopeng isn’t the only one laying off staff as China’s Internet bubble shows early signs of bursting. In the latest indication of trouble, Chinese media are reporting that Vancl, the high-flying online clothing seller, is in the process of cutting 5 percent of its workforce as management tries to “right-size” the company in the run-up to a probable fourth-quarter IPO. (Chinese article) Vancl’s CEO was understandably unwilling to comment on the reports, which cited a number of leaked company e-mails and word of mouth from lower-level company employees. But the reports seem to be credible, and would certainly not be surprising following similar signs of distress from Gaopeng, the Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700) invested group buying site now laying off big chunks of its staff, as well as social networking site and IPO candidate Kaixin, which last month warned that the days of rapid Internet growth may be over. (previous post) I have to admit that Vancl’s layoffs did surprise me a little, as just last month I speculated that clothing sellers, due to their more niche-oriented position, may be more immune to the looming Internet bubble than more broadly-focused companies such as group buying sites like Gaopeng and general merchandise sellers like 360Buy. (previous post) But at the end of the day, the bottom line is that China’s Internet space has become way too crowded and overheated, with billions of dollars in new investment entering the market in the last year chasing consumer demand that, while growing, is still far too small to support all those new players. Look for more layoffs in the next few months, as many of the smaller, revenue-poor companies seek to delay their inevitable closure or sale to larger rivals.

Bottom line: Vancl’s recent layoff of 5 percent of its workforce marks the latest chapter in the early stages of a burst for China’s overinflated Internet bubble, with much more to come.

中国互联网泡沫呈现初期破裂迹象，高朋网看来不是唯一一个裁员的团购网站。团购领域又现新麻烦，据中国媒体报导，服饰网络零售品牌凡客诚品正在裁员，规模大约有5%。管理层希望确保公司“合适规模”，以筹备四季度IPO计划。凡客CEO陈年不愿对裁员报导置评。相关文章主要引述了多封公司内部泄漏的邮件与公司低层员工的说法，内容看似可靠。美国团购网站Groupon与腾讯(0700.HK)联手投资的团购网站–高朋网之前已大举裁员，另外准备上市的社交网络开心网也在裁员。不得不承认，凡客裁员有些令我意外。因为就在上个月，我还估计相对于高朋、京东商城等市场定位宽泛的网站，服装零售商因为特殊市场定位，对于互联网泡沫的免疫力可能更好一些。但说到底，实际情况是中国互联网市场已经过于拥挤、投资过热，过去一年已经有数以十亿计美元新投资进入这一市场，押注中国网上购物需求将会大增。这一市场尽管在增长，但还是远远不够支撑那麽多新加入的企业。未来数月，随着很多低营收小企业竭力延迟关张或被对手吞食命运，应该还会出现更多企业跟着裁员。

一句话：凡客近来裁员5%，是中国过度膨胀的互联网泡沫初步破裂的最新事件，未来还会有更多企业跟进类似举措。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tax Evasion Report: Trouble Brewing in Group Buying? 团购被曝逃税 行业整顿或在即

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

 

Hulu Makes First Global Stop in Japan, China Next?

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And the winner is … Japan. That’s the word coming from Hulu, the popular video streaming site backed by 3 top Hollywood studios, which has just announced that Japan will be the first stop in its international expansion. (company announcement) The fact that China wasn’t chosen isn’t all that surprising, as Japan and most of Western Europe boast far wealthier consumers to buy the mostly paid programming services offered by Hulu, whose primary backers include Disney (NYSE: DIS), News Corp (Nasdaq: NWS) and Comcast’s (Nasdaq: CMCSA) NBC Universal. But what’s interesting for China watchers is the language towards the bottom of the announcement, where Hulu describes itself as a company with offices in “Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Seattle, Tokyo and Beijing.” That’s the exact wording, with Tokyo and Beijing listed as Hulu’s only offices outside the US, in that order. Does that mean that China will be the next stop on Hulu’s global expansion? I would say there’s a good chance the answer is “yes”, given the recent flurry of Hollywood deals to provide content to the growing number of Chinese video and music sites under growing pressure from Beijing to delete illegal content and offer legal material instead. Top online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) has been a leader in the recent trend, signing deals with Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) and Philips Electronics (Amsterdam: PHG) (previous post), while leading search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) also recently signed a deal with several major record labels to offer legal copies of their music. (previous post) The timing also looks particularly good for Hulu, as it could offer its programs not only over the Internet, but also potentially over a state-of-the-art digital home cable network being rolled out soon by China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) or via a future similar network being created through an ongoing national cable TV consolidation plan. If the Japan roll-out goes smoothly, I’d look for a Hulu announcement in China possibly as early as the end of this year, but more likely in 2012.

Bottom line: Hulu’s move to Japan presages a move into China for the second stop on its global expansion, most likely in 2012.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

◙ After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

◙ TV Programers Dial Up Success on Internet 电视电影制片商迎来网络商机

 

ICBC Discovers China’s Latest Low-Cost Export: Currency 工行将从非洲人民币结算业务中获益

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Cheap manufactured goods have been the mainstay of China’s exporting machine for years, but now leading bank ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) looks poised to ride an equally lucrative new wave by shipping huge bundles of China’s currency, the yuan, to Africa. That’s the message I get from a report in today’s China Daily, citing an executive of South Africa’s Standard Bank, ICBC’s chief partner in Africa, talking about the huge growth potential for yuan services in Africa. Standard Bank’s China head Craig Bond says at least 40 percent of Africa’s trade with China, or about $100 billion worth, will be settled in the Chinese currency by 2015, adding at least $10 billion of Chinese investment in Africa will be denominated in yuan over the same period. While Bond never mentions ICBC by name, industry watchers know the two share a strong alliance through ICBC’s ownership of 20 percent of Africa’s biggest lender, and that the pair are strengthening their tie-up with ICBC’s recent plans to purchase 80 percent of Standard Bank’s Argentine unit. (previous post) China is currently using Hong Kong as its main base to explore internationalizing the yuan, but Africa is a logical extension for that policy, as China is one of the largest buyers of natural resources from the continent, and the market isn’t dominated by the dollar or the euro to the extent that more developed Western markets are. I’ve said before that I really like ICBC’s tie-up with Standard Bank, which gives it great access to developing markets in Africa and Latin America where ICBC has the potential to leverage its expertise as China’s largest bank. If even half of Standard Bank’s prediction comes true, it will mark a huge opportunity for ICBC, which, working with Standard Bank, most likely would become the major provider of yuan currency services to Africa, providing a huge new growth opportunity in its international expansion.

Bottom line: ICBC, working with African partner Standard Bank, looks set to reap big rewards from an expected explosion in demand for yuan services in Africa.

多年来，廉价的工业制品一直是中国的出口引擎，但现在看起来，中国工商银行(601398.SS; 1398.HK)找到了另外一条同样利润丰厚的道路：向非洲“输出”大量人民币。这是我从《中国日报》今天一篇报导得出的信息，该报称，工行在非洲的主要合作夥伴–南非标准银行一名高管称，非洲的人民币结算业务增长潜力巨大。南非标银中国首席执行官庞凯歌（Craig Bond）称，到2015年，至少有40%的中非贸易（约1,000亿美元）将以人民币结算，届时至少有100亿美元中国对非投资也将以人民币结算。尽管庞凯歌没有提及工行，但业内观察者知道，工行持有南非标银20%股份，两者合作关系紧密，而工行近期计划收购南非标银阿根廷分公司80%股权，将进一步巩固工行和南非标银的关系。中国大陆目前正以香港为人民币国际化的主要试点，但非洲是这一政策的合理拓展方向，原因是中国是非洲自然资源的最大买方之一，美元和欧元在非洲市场的主导程度不及西方发达国家。我此前说过，我非常欣赏工行与南非标银的联手，工行作为中国最大的商业银行，有望借此进入非洲和拉美的发展中国家市场，充分施展其专长。即使届时只实现南非标准银行预测值的一半，也将为工行创造巨大商机，工行与标准银行合作，很可能将成为非洲人民币结算业务的主要提供方，为工行海外拓展提供了巨大增长机遇。

一句话：人民币结算业务料将在非洲呈爆发性增长，工行通过与南非标准银行的合作，势将获益匪浅。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Record Profits Bolster Banks as Storm Looms 创纪录利润有助银行抵御楼市低迷隐忧

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力

◙ CCB Explores Overseas Step to Indonesia

Ericsson, ZTE Spat May be Near Resolution 爱立信与中兴的官司尘埃落定？

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Eight months after the news first broke, we’re finally getting a little more color on the potentially devastating lawsuit filed against telecoms equipment and cellphone maker ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) by global rival Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), and things don’t look as bad as they did initially. Few details were given when Ericsson filed the suit in Britain back in April, but the action had the potential to halt ZTE’s sales in major European markets. (previous post) ZTE fired back with a meaningless lawsuit filed in China a short time later, but both companies have been largely mute on the subject since then. But now Chinese media are reporting an Ericsson executive attending an event in Beijing made some brief remarks on the matter in response to a question, and it looks like this whole issue is simply a question of money. (English article) That’s quite an important distinction, as companies that file such lawsuits usually do so with one of two objectives in mind. Companies like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) usually file their IP lawsuits to force a competitor to stop making a product altogether. But in many other instances, which appears to be the case with Ericsson vs ZTE, the company filing suit simply wants another company to pay royalties by forcing the offending company to legally license its technology. If that’s the case here, then I would expect a resolution of this dispute in the near future. Of course, any new licensing deal will hurt ZTE, whose low costs are one of its chief advantages, by driving up those costs. But in the longer term, ZTE will be able to continue selling its products in Europe and elsewhere without interruption, and the company can return to competing against Ericsson in the marketplace rather than in the courtroom.

Bottom line: New remarks from Ericsson suggest its lawsuit against ZTE is all about licensing and money, and a resolution could soon be forthcoming.

从纠纷一开始到现在已有八个月之久，现在我们终于对此事有了多一些了解。电信设备商爱立信(ERICb.ST)此前在欧洲一纸诉状将中兴通讯(0763.HK; 000063.SZ)告上法庭，该诉讼看起来可能给中兴致命重创，不过目前状况看起来并没有当初那麽差。4月份，爱立信在英国起诉中兴通讯，外界对相关细节知之甚少。但诉讼有可能阻止中兴通讯在主要欧洲市场的销售。中兴通讯很快就予以回敬，在中国对爱立信提起诉讼。此後，两家公司在这个问题上双方基本沉默不语。但是中国媒体近期报导，一名在北京参加活动的爱立信高管在回答提问时此事做了简短的评论，看起来整个事情仅仅是钱的问题。这是一个非常重要的分界线。企业提起此类诉讼时，除了钱的目的外，往往希望一箭双雕。苹果(AAPL.O)等公司发起专利诉讼通常是为了迫使竞争对手停止产品生产。但更多情况下，一家企业提起诉讼通常是为了迫使另一家企业购买技术许可，支付专利费，爱立信与中兴通讯的纠纷似乎就属这种情况。如果事实确实如此，我预计近期两家公司应该就能解决纠纷。当然，任何新的许可协议都有损中兴通讯，因低成本是它的主要优势之一。但从长远一些来看，中兴通讯可以在欧洲等地继续产品销售工作，继续与爱立信同台竞争，而非仅仅局限于法庭之上。

一句话：爱立信高管最近的表态暗示，爱立信与中兴通讯的官司仅仅属于授权许可与钱的问题，纠纷不久应该就能尘埃落定。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ZTE Pressures Ericsson With China Suit — NOT 中兴反诉爱立信

◙ Huawei, ZTE Spat Heats Up 华为中兴之争升级

◙ ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务