Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

Lenovo: Finally a Risk Taker In Intel Tie-Up 联想联手英特尔,终於肯冒险

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I have to applaud Chinese PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) for its decision to be one of the first backers for a new smartphone chip developed by Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), not so much because I believe this new product will succeed but more because it shows Lenovo is finally starting to shed its image as a follower and take some intelligent risks. This is exactly the kind of thing the company needs to do more if it wants to become a true global leader, even though such risks are likely to produce some big failures, and this one is no exception. Let’s look more closely at this move, which Lenovo announced at the massive Consumer Electronics Show this week in Las Vegas. Lenovo, along with Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), announced they will be the first partners to use a new chip that Intel has developed for smartphones and tablet PCs that are stealing share from the chipmaker’s traditional PC business. (English article) The current smartphone market is dominated by chipmaker ARM (London: ARM), working with companies like Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) and Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM). Intel has never been able to break into the market, but realizes it must do so or risk watching its PC chip business shrivel as more people use tablets and smartphones for their computing. Lenovo, which already makes smartphones but hasn’t found much success in the area, is taking what looks like a smart risk here by signing up as one of the first customers for Intel’s new chip. By making this move, it will immediately have access to Intel’s huge resources to help it develop new smartphones that could differentiate themselves in areas like computing speed and energy consumption from similar ARM-based products. And as one of Intel’s first customers, it will also receive goodwill from the US chip giant that it can use for future collaboration. On the downside, Intel has a spotty record for developing chips outside is core PC business, and in this case it is already far behind existing products. I would ultimately give this initiative less than a 50 percent chance of success, but still must congratulate Lenovo for trying to shed its image as follower and finally become a leader in new product development.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s new smartphone partnership with Intel is likely to fail in the long run, but still reflects the company’s aim to become a leader in new product development.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Starts Year With New Europe Chief, TV Tie-Up 联想新年新气象：聘用新高管并推互联网电视

◙ Lenovo Considers Japan Production 联想向日本转移制造业务为明智公关手段

◙ Liu Steps Down at Lenovo — Again 柳传志再度卸任联想董事会主席

Taobao Mall Becomes Tianmao: IPO Coming?

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The e-commerce world is buzzing this morning about the new cat in town, a website called Tianmao, translating to “Sky Cat,” which is the new Internet domain where Alibaba Group’s industry leading Taobao Mall will set up its new shop. (Chinese article) The move is the latest in a series designed to separate the highly popular online shopping mall from its roots in Alibaba’s broader Taobao family of companies catering to consumer buyers, and looks like the latest step in the march towards an IPO for the unit, probably sometime later this year. Alibaba started Taobao about a decade ago as a specialist in the then-popular online auctions business, also known as C2C, where it fought a high-profile battle with global industry leader eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) that ultimately saw the US giant largely withdraw from the domestic Chinese market. Since then, however, Alibaba’s online auctions business has been a lackluster performer, in part because it refuses to charge for most services; instead, Taobao has found more success in its Taobao Mall, an online shopping mall, known in the industry as a B2C site, populated by third-party retailers that are generally quite large and are more than happy to pay handsome fees for the privilege of renting a space on the site. Alibaba formally split off Taobao Mall from the rest of Taobao in a reorganization last year (previous post), and has been quietly building it up as a separate stand-alone business. The new company experienced a bit of controversy last fall when it announced a sharp price hike for smaller merchants, prompting them to rise up and create widespread disruption, saying the move was aimed at kicking them off the site. (previous post) Stakeholders of Alibaba, whose only listed unit is its B2B site, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688), have repeatedly pressed founder Jack Ma to do more IPOs for his company’s other units to let them get more money back from their investments; but Ma has countered by saying Taobao will never make an IPO. This latest name change for Taobao Mall looks like a clever way for Ma to keep his promise, while moving ahead with an IPO for this successful unit that could raise several billion dollars or more if and when it comes later this year.

Bottom line: Alibaba’s renaming of its popular Taobao Mall as Tianmao is the latest step in the march towards a multibillion-dollar IPO  that could come later this year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

◙ Taobao Mall’s IPO March Collides With Merchant Uprising 淘宝商城IPO或因商户“起义”被推迟

◙ Alibaba Sharpens Focus in Yahoo Buy-Out, Taobao Mall 阿里巴巴回购雅虎所持股权有望

 

CCTV’s Latest Web Tie-Up: Who Cares? 奇虎联手央视料难成功

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Web software firm Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU), which has recently come under a short seller attack for allegedly inflating its user figures, is trumpeting a new tie-up with the online unit of CCTV, China’s leading TV broadcaster, to jointly create an online video platform — a development that looks great in the headlines but one that leads me to ask a simple question: Who cares? (English article) I’ve previously stated my belief that Qihoo is a company prone to exaggeration, and in all fairness I can’t really blame Qihoo for wanting to hype this latest development, as obviously CCTV is a big name in video content. In fact, my skepticism would be better directed at CCTV, which is trying hard to become more commercial along with other big state-run media giants like Xinhua and People’s Daily, which are both in the process of doing IPOs for their websites in an effort to earn money and become more self sufficient. (previous post) Put quite simply, CCTV and Xinhua have launched a seemingly nonstop stream of similar tie-ups in the last few years with names like China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Bloomberg, none of which seems to be particularly successful. The reason for the muted success, and one reason I’d caution investors against getting too excited, is relatively simple: the average Chinese still sees CCTV, Xinhua and People’s Daily largely as propaganda tools of the communist party, and aren’t all that interested in spending their web surfing and mobile browsing time reading or viewing more of their material. What’s more, these mammoth state-run media giants, no matter how hard they try, simply lack the instincts to be true commercial companies as their first priority will always be to propaganda officials and everything else will come second. Qihoo shareholders seem to have liked the news, bidding up the company’s shares 8 percent in Tuesday trading on Wall Street. But I’d caution any excited buyers not to hold out too much hope for this new CCTV tie-up, despite the broadcaster’s big name, and would likewise give a similar warning to any other company that does future similar deals with CCTV or Xinhua. On the other hand, I wouldn’t extend my skepticism to all media companies, and in fact do believe that certain aggressive regional players like Shanghai Media Group and Hunan Broadcasting might make much more interesting media partners.

Bottom line: A new tie-up between Qihoo 360 and CCTV will produce lackluster results, as will similar partnerships involving CCTV, Xinhua and other media outlets with strong central government ties.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy Heats Up E-Books, People’s Daily Goes to Market 京东商城高调进军电子书,人民网开启上市进程

◙ Xinhuanet IPO Sets Stage For Media Listings 新华网IPO或将开启媒体上市热潮

◙ PPLive, Phoenix Video Initiatives Offer News Alternative 凤凰新媒体与PPLive的新尝试

China Mobile Steams Ahead With 4G 中国移动积极推进4G网络

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It’s only the second week of the new year, and already we’re seeing the latest signs that China Mobile (HKEx: 941) is aggressively moving forward with development of its 4G network with plans to expand its already-ambitious trial program for the homegrown technology called TD-LTE. Frankly speaking, I was a bit skeptical when the company began aggressive large-scale trials for the technology last year, less than 2 years after it and its 2 rivals collectively spent around $50 billion to build 3G networks and as the regulator was signaling it wouldn’t award 4G licenses for several years. But recent signs that China Mobile is getting more aggressive on its neglected 3G network, coupled with more positive signs from the regulator, have led me to revise my thinking, and if trials go well we could actually see the company get a 4G license and a limited commercial launch of TD-LTE as early as the first quarter of 2013. Let’s look at the most recent developments, which have Chinese media reporting that China Mobile will soon expand its TD-LTE trials to 3 more cities, following trials in 6 major cities during the second half of last year. (English article) In a related report, other Chinese media are saying 3 chip developers have finished testing for new TD-LTE chips, indicating product development for the  technology is coming along much faster than for China Mobile’s 3G network, based on another homegrown standard called TD-SCDMA that has suffered in part from a lack of cellphones compatible with the technology. Earlier this week, chip developer Spreadtrum (Nasdaq: SPRD), which has recently emerged as a strong supporter of the TD standards, unveiled a chip that can support both TD-SCDMA and TD-LTE, an important development as China Mobile will ultimately need to offer handsets that can run on both its 3G and 4G networks when it begins to commercialize 4G. (Spreadtrum announcement) All things considered, I do see a more exciting year ahead for China Mobile, which after a couple of years of denial about its 3G technology, is finally taking concrete steps in both 3G and 4G that could finally start to yield some tangible results as soon as the middle of the year. If that happens, which still isn’t guaranteed, look for some much-needed growth to finally return to the company’s anemic top and bottom lines.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s latest moves on 4G, coupled with recent new activity in 3G, indicate it is getting more aggressive and could soon see its growth rates climbing.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Telcos In New Drives at Home, Abroad 中国三大电信运营商海内外发力

◙ China Mobile: Improvement Ahead Under New Leaders 新领导有望助中国移动复苏

◙ China Mobile Tries 4G Back Door in Shenzhen 中国移动试图绕过监管机构于深圳秘密规划4G网络

Turmoil Erupts in Perfect World

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Online game operator Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD) has come under attack from an anonymous blogger who may have been trying to blackmail the company, sending its prices plummeting and showing that short sellers aren’t the only ones looking to profit on the credibility crisis plaguing US-listed Chinese companies. Shares of Perfect World, which was already struggling from slowing business (previous post), have been on a roller coaster ride these last 2 days, plunging 27 percent on Monday after the anonymous posts came out (Chinese article), only to bounce back 20 percent on Tuesday after the company strongly denounced the reports. (company statement) After all that, Perfect World shares are still down 12 percent from their levels before the articles appeared, indicating this story may not be over yet and investors are still concerned about some of Perfect World’s business practices. A bit of guess work is necessary here as no one, including the company statement, is telling the complete story. But reading between the lines, it appears the anonymous blog posts questioned some transactions conducted by Perfect World CEO Chi Yufeng between companies under his control. The articles appear to imply that some of the transactions were made at favorable prices to Chi’s other companies, at the expense of Perfect World. Such practices are hardly unusual in the tainted world of US-listed Chinese firms, whose founders often use their companies as personal kingdoms to conduct transactions that may benefit themselves but aren’t always in the best interest of their other shareholders. Two other companies, Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN) and Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA), came under similar attack last year for dubious transactions unrelated to their core business, though in the Focus case the attack was mounted by a short seller. (previous post) In Perfect World’s case, the company implies the attacker wasn’t a short seller, but rather a blackmailer looking for money in exchange for not publishing its articles. Such blackmailing is relatively common in China, and this particular case spotlights yet another danger scandal-tainted US-listed Chinese companies will now face as they work to clean up their image.

Bottom line: An apparent attack on Perfect World by blackmailers spotlights another vulnerability for US-listed Chinese firms as they struggle with a credibility crisis over their business practices.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Cleanup Resumes, Facebook Sniffs Out China Investors 在美上市的中国企业将继续面临“大清洗”

◙ Short Sellers Target China in Year End Assault 做空抛盘年底将矛头对准在美上市中国企业

◙ US-Listed China Firms Fight Back — Finally 中国赴美上市公司最终还击

360Buy Heats Up E-Books, People’s Daily Goes to Market 京东商城高调进军电子书,人民网开启上市进程

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E-commerce leaders 360Buy and Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) seem to be locked together in a dangerous dance that has seen them launch one price war after another in their attempts to steal business from each other. Just weeks after Dangdang, which rose to prominence as an online book seller, finally discovered e-books (previous post), 360Buy, which also goes by the name of Jingdong Mall, has launched its own very high profile move into e-books as well, in what’s likely to turn into yet the latest bloody price war between these two companies. (English article; Chinese article) 360Buy has released lots of details about this latest high-profile initiative, saying its online bookstore will launch next month and will include more than 80,000 titles from 200 suppliers. Look for lots of bargains when this new online bookstore comes online, which no doubt will be met with equal bargains from Dangdang, pushing both companies deeper into the red. This latest looming price war, which looks to be quite big, is an appropriate start to 2012, when we can expect to see a major cleanup of China’s unruly e-commerce and group buying spaces where competition has become rampant and many companies are now losing big money. Many companies are likely to close in the cleanup, though I would expect both Dangdang and 360Buy to survive, as the latter chases an IPO to raise $1 billion or more in the US. Speaking of IPOs, domestic media are reporting that People’s Net, the online site of the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party, has started a process to raise around 527 million yuan, or $82 million, through a domestic IPO. (Chinese article) That news comes just 2 weeks after similar reports emerged that another major state-run media, Xinhua, was also planning a $150 million IPO for its website, Xinhuanet. (previous post) IPOs by these 2 big hallmarks of state-run media are a clear signal that China is finally loosening its grip on the sensitive media sector, and we should expect to see a steady stream of major media firms listing some of their assets in the year ahead, including some potentially interesting offerings from other major players like Shanghai Media Group and Southern Media Group.

Bottom line: 2012 is starting with a dramatic new price war between Dangdang and 360Buy in e-books, while an IPO by People’s Daily’s website augers a new wave of media listings.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Price Wars Beat Up Online Retailers 网上零售商引爆价格战

◙ Dangdang Discovers E-Books — Finally 当当推电子书仍有成功希望

◙ Xinhuanet IPO Sets Stage For Media Listings 新华网IPO或将开启媒体上市热潮

Cars: US, Germany Clobber Japan, Domestic Rivals 美德汽车在华完胜日本和中国车商

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2011 sales data for 2011 has been trickling out for the past week from the various car makers in China, showing US and German names made big gains last year at the expense of Japanese and domestic rivals, who could face a continued uphill battle in the coming year. General Motors‘ (NYSE: GM) China sales rose 8.3 percent last year to a record 2.55 million vehicles, while Ford (NYSE: F), a later arrival to the market, said its sales grew 7 percent to 519,390 units, according to company statements. (English article) Both figures were about twice the growth rate for the broader market, which is expected to come in at around 4 percent, the slowest in more than a decade as Beijing ended a wide range of incentives that led to a boom in 2009 and 2010, pushing China past the US to become the world’s largest car market. German car makers like Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) and BMW (Frankfurt: BMWG) also posted strong gains, with Volkswagen’s sales up 14 percent for the year, as they profited from strong demand for luxury models and a broader demand for quality as consumers reined in their spending. Gains by the US and German car makers came at the expense of the Japanese and domestic names, with Toyota (Tokyo: 7203) posting 4 percent growth while Honda (Tokyo: 7267) sales actually fell 4.5 percent, as they struggled with shortages and other operational issues after the big March earthquake in Japan. Meantime, domestic names like Geely (HKEx: 175), Chery and BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594), have also struggled to compete with the big global names as the market slows due to their more limited resources and reputation for less dependable quality. Japan’s car makers will most likely bounce back a bit in 2012 as earthquake-related issues recede, and could return to market-level growth rates that will likely be in the single digits this year. But 2012 could provide a much bumpier road ahead for the domestic nameplates, which will continue to lose market share to their strong foreign rivals as competition in the market intensifies.

Bottom line: US and German carmakers will continue to gain share in China’s auto market this year at the expense of domestic names, while Japanese players should see their positions start to stabilize.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Slams the Brakes on Automakers 中国为汽车行业踩刹车

◙ Luxury Cars Zoom, But Who Profits?

◙ Geely Choking on Volvo Debt, Weak Sales 吉利债台高筑

Medicine: Healthy Growth But Margins Squeezed 医疗行业增长良好 但是利润率受到冲击

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Two companies in the medical space, Mindray Medical (NYSE: MR) and Wuxi PharmaTech (NYSE: WX) have just released preliminary results showing China’s spending boom on healthcare reform is likely to continue into 2012, but margins will come under growing pressure as Beijing seeks the good value in its multibillion dollar drive to overhaul the nation’s healthcare system. Mindray, which makes medical devices, has given preliminary results saying its revenue grew a healthy 25 percent to nearly $900 million last year, thanks in large part to Beijing’s overhaul that is part of its effort to build a nationwide network of clinics providing basic affordable healthcare for everyone. (company announcement) But while revenue growth was strong, non-GAAP profits will be up more modestly by “no less than 10 percent,” according to the company. It was also somewhat guarded on 2012, saying revenue growth for this year would be 18 percent or more. The company actually gets almost half of its revenue from China, while the other half comes from global markets, which it said would continue to be challenging this year. I suspect its revenue forecast for 2012 is quite conservative, and it could easily match its 2011 revenue growth rate of 25 percent in 2012 if China continues its strong spending on health care reform, pushing its top line past the $1 billion mark. But margins will continue to come under pressure amid weak global spending and fierce competition for lucrative Chinese contracts, and its profit could end up growing at about half that rate. Meantime, Wuxi PharmaTech, a drug maker, has provided more limited guidance, saying its 2011 revenue should come in around $404 million, up a similar 21 percent from 2011. (company announcement) Like Mindray, I would expect the company’s profit growth, which jumped 71 percent in 2010 but has fallen to the mid-teens in recent quarters, to trail its revenue growth, again for the same reasons of growing competition. On the whole, 2012 looks set to be a strong year for health care as China is likely to keep up its spending on reform, but margins will come under growing pressure as profit growth stabilizes in a healthy but not overly exciting 10-20 percent range.

Bottom line: China’s continued spending on health care reform will give medical firms a nice lift in 2012, but growing competition will put profit growth under pressure.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Simcere Suffers Side Effects of Health Care Reform

◙ Mindray Turns Focus to Home With M&A

◙ Bristol-Myers, EMC Tap China Priorities With New Tie-Ups　　趁中国政策导向东风 百时美施贵宝与EMC联姻本土企业

News Digest: January 10, 2012

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on January 10. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ GM (NYSE: GM) Leads U.S. Carmaker Gains in China (English article)

◙ 360Buy Makes High Profile Entry Into E-Books (Chinese article)

◙ People’s Daily Website Launches IPO Process to Raise 527 Mln Yuan (Chinese article)

◙ Mindray Medical (NYSE: MR) Gives Preliminary 2011 Operating Results, 2012 Revenue Guidance (PRNewswire)

◙ WuXi PharmaTech (NYSE: WX) Provides Update of 2011 Financial Guidance (PRNewswire)

China Takes a Bite From Apple 中国作者咬苹果一口

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Apple is fast discovering that China may be a land of huge potential, but that it will also come with its own set of challenges, as evidenced by several new developments with both positive and negative overtones. In the former category, the company is close to a deal to offer its latest iPhone 4S via China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), China’s third largest carrier, which would follow close on the heels of a similar deal with China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), the second largest carrier which will begin selling the iPhone 4S on Friday. (Chinese article) On the negative front, meantime, a group of local writers are preparing to sue Apple for copyright infringement related to the unauthorized use of their material for some apps from Apple’s iPhone store. (Chinese article) Let’s look at the positive news first, which has Chinese media reporting trials have successfully concluded for a version of the iPhone 4S that will work on China Telecom’s 3G network that uses a technology called CDMA EVDO. That deal would mark the latest China inroad for Apple, which could find a better Chinese partner in China Telecom, which is more aggressive and better organized than Unicom, Apple’s oldest China partner. At the same time Chinese media are also reporting that China’s biggest carrier, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), may also be close to an iPhone deal for its 3G network. (Chinese article) But the reports only cite market talk, and such chatter has become so common that I wouldn’t put too much credibility behind this latest rumor. Meantime, Chinese media are also reporting about a looming copyright lawsuit against Apple from a group of 9 Chinese authors, who will seek damages of around 12 million yuan, or about $2 million. This kind of lawsuit is insignificant from to Apple from a financial perspective, even if it loses. But similar lawsuits against big names like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) have brought widespread negative publicity, which could ultimately hurt Apple’s image in China and therefore undermine sales. This  lawsuit comes just a month after another legal setback for Apple in China, in this case after a Chinese court ruled another company owned the rights to the iPad name despite objections from Apple. (previous post) Stay tuned for more clashes like these as China becomes an increasingly important market for Apple.

Bottom line: An imminent iPhone 4S deal with China Telecom marks the latest Chinese advance for Apple, while a copyright lawsuit against it is the latest in a growing series of challenges.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple Suffers Setback in China Lawsuit Loss 苹果在华商标侵权案初尝苦果

◙ Unicom, China Telecom in iPhone 4S Race 中国电信有望领先推出iPhone 4S

◙ Apple Prepares to Take on China Pirates 苹果开始接受人民币付款购买应用软件

Bank of China Considers Offshore I-Banking 中国银行考虑收购RBS投行资产

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Bank of China (HKEx: 3988; Shanghai: 601988), historically the most outward looking of China’s big 4 state-run banks, may be trying to recapture some of its former glory as a global player, with news that it’s exploring the potential purchase of investment banking assets from Britain’s nationalized Royal Bank of Scotland (London: RBS). Media reports say Bank of China is just one of several potential buyers interested in the RBS assets, and that the process is still quite preliminary. (English article) But at least on the surface, this kind of acquisition looks like a smart move for Bank of China, as the size would be quite manageable and it would immediately gain access to a relatively well established global investment banking business. China bank watchers will recall that Bank of China was at one time the nation’s sole provider of foreign exchange services, and thus was its most outward looking bank in the days when the country’s financial services industry was largely shut off from the outside world. Bank of China also has a small investment banking arm in Hong Kong, but it has lost the title of most outward looking bank in recent years to more aggressive rival ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398), which, in the last few years has made a steady string of acquisitions in a number of markets in Africa, Asia and South America, and counts Standard Bank, Africa’s largest bank, as a major partner. (previous post) Bank of China, meantime, has been relatively quiet on the international stage, preferring to focus most of its activity at home. This new interest by Bank of China probably signals its management intends to get more active on the global front, potentially by picking up a lingering trickle of assets being sold off by banks like RBS that took hits during the global financial crisis. Many of those assets have already been sold off, but there are still a few floating around out there that could be attractive targets for Bank of China, which, at least based on this bid and its history as a forex trader, looks more interested in fee-based financial services. By comparison ICBC looks more focused on more traditional retail and commercial banking.

Bottom line: Bank of China’s interest in investment banking assets being sold by RBS show it may want to become more global, and could make more bids for other fee-based global banking assets.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ICBC Discovers China’s Latest Low-Cost Export: Currency 工行将从非洲人民币结算业务中获益

◙ CCB Explores Overseas Step to Indonesia

◙ ICBC Sees Potential in Argentina 中国工商银行：阿根廷市场有潜力