Journalist China

Business news from China By Doug Young.
Doug Young, journalist, has lived and worked in China for 20 years, much of that as a journalist, writing about publicly listed Chinese companies.

He is based in Shanghai where, in addition to his role as editor of Young’s China Business Blog, he teaches financial journalism at Fudan University, one of China’s top journalism programs.
He contributes regularly to a wide range of publications in both China and the west, including Forbes, CNN, Seeking Alpha and Reuters, as well as Asia-based publications including the South China Morning Post, Global Times, Shanghai Daily and Shanghai Observer

Dwindling Demand Fuels Car Inventory Build-Up 中国汽车库存增加或引发价格战

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It’s the beginning of June, and that means it’s time for the nation’s automakers to release their monthly sales data that will undoubtedly show modest to moderate growth, with the possible exception of some domestic automakers that are suffering in the industry’s current slowdown. But the real picture could be far worse than those reports indicate, based on the latest cautionary words from the nation’s biggest association of auto dealers. Those words of caution from the China Automobile Dealers Association come less than a month after the group warned that inventories of unsold cars were rising above what is normally considered healthy levels at dealerships selling 3 of the nation’s top brands, Geely (HKEx: 175), Chery and BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594), as well as at Honda (Tokyo: 7267) dealerships. (previous post) That warning reflected the reality that auto manufacturers, whose monthly figures usually reflect shipments to dealers and not actual sales, were sending many more cars to their dealerships than the dealers were actually selling. The slowdown has gripped the entire market for much of the last 12 months, as car sales dropped off considerably after turbocharged growth in 2009 and 2010 fueled by incentives from Beijing. Now the same Auto Dealers Association is saying that inventory levels are rising at an alarming level, with the average level now at 60 days at the end of May compared with 45 days just a month earlier. (English article) An association executive said the rapid rise in unsold cars is unsustainable, and that dealers are being forced to sell vehicles at big discounts to prevent inventory levels from getting even higher. Most observers are expecting to see modest gains tomorrow when the association that tracks China automobile sales releases its monthly figures for May, which reflect shipments to dealerships. Some individual manufacturers have already reported their own May figures, including GM (NYSE: GM), which reported its May sales rose 21 percent on strength from 2 of its lower-end brands. While GM’s numbers may be relatively reliable, the same may not be true for some of China’s domestic players like Geely, BYD and Chery, which have continued to churn out new cars and ship them to dealers who then discover there is little or no demand for the product.  Analysts are already predicting the inventory build-up will force those dealers to offer steep discounts, leading to price wars that could ultimately infect not only the domestic automakers but also the big global players like GM and Volkswagen (Frankfurt: VOWG) as well. Dealers are also likely to feel the pinch, with many potentially being forced out of business as they are forced to sell their inventory at a loss. On the whole, it looks automakers and their dealers could be facing a bloody summer ahead, with many of the domestic players being forced to idle large amounts of  production capacity by the fall.

Bottom line: An unsustainable inventory build up at Chinese auto dealers will lead to bloody price wars in the summer, followed by sharp reductions in output for many domestic players in the fall.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Auto Inventory Builds, Pain Ahead for Domestics 中国低端车库存增加 本土车企面临苦日子

◙ China Car Sales Sputter Out of the Gate 中国汽车销售龙年遭考验

◙ Autos: Good Times Screech to a Halt 中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事

China Nuclear IPO — Too Hot to Handle? 中国核能上市：烫手山芋？

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I hope readers will excuse me for my headline calling an upcoming IPO by China’s top nuclear power company “too hot to handle,” but in all honesty that’s really what I think about this plan, which seems ill conceived and likely to highlight just how unpopular nuclear power is right now. The plan being discussed has just been approved by China’s environmental regulator, and would see China National Nuclear Power Co raise funds to develop $27 billion worth of projects in its pipeline. (English article) No fund-raising target was given, but the mention of the $27 billion figure suggests the offering would be rather large, perhaps bigger than $5 billion. New of the plan, which was disclosed on the environmental regulator’s website, suggests that China intends to soon resume construction of nuclear power plants, following a halt after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of March last year that led to the world’s worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl. Japan has turned off all of its nuclear power plants since then amid huge public distrust of nuclear energy. Based on my personal experience, many Chinese feel an equal or greater level of unease about nuclear power, since many suspect their government would do a far less effective job of damage control if a similar accident should happen on Chinese territory. So that naturally raises the question: who exactly does the government think would invest in this company when it makes its public offering? From a purely investment perspective, this kind of company seems to have a huge degree of risk, as reflected by the massive financial burden now being carried by the operator of the stricken Japanese nuclear plant. Even a small accident at a Chinese nuclear plant could easily bankrupt the plant’s operator, instantly wiping out all of the company’s shareholder value. From a more emotional level, most investors, both retail and institutional, are likely to avoid such an IPO due to personal concerns about nuclear energy. With no obvious buyers in sight, the most likely candidates to purchase shares in this offering will be cash-rich big state-run enterprises that take all their orders from Beijing. I wrote earlier this week that such big companies, such as China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) and Sinopec (HKEx: 386; NYSE: SNP), are often called on to execute government strategy in their sectors, but could soon be called to assist in outside areas such as the nation’s looming banking crisis. So they could also soon be called to purchase shares in this new unpopular IPO too, perhaps helping the offering to do well initially as the government seeks to ease public fears. In the end, I’m sure this offering will go forward and may initially have a decent trading debut. But don’t look for the company to be a strong performer over the longer term.

Bottom line: An upcoming IPO for China’s largest nuclear power operator will attract weak demand from real investors, and instead is designed to restore public confidence to the sector.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Energy: Good for Builders, Bad for Sellers 中国电力行业：电价管制转变外资投资方向

◙ Powerless AES Looks to Bow From China 爱依斯出售中国发电业务 凸显行业严酷形势

◙ Sinopec Latest Victim of Environmental Scrutiny 中石化管道工程因环保计划不足被叫停

News Digest: June 7, 2012 报摘： 2012年6月7日

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on June 7. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ Carmakers Aggravate China Glut as Dealers Struggle (English article)

◙ Huawei Challenges Layoff ‘Rumors’ (English article)

◙ China Nuclear Plans IPO to Help Fund Projects Worth $27 Billion (English article)

◙ Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) to Stop Trading on June 8, Delist on June 20 (Chinese article)

◙ Air Lease Corp Announces 18 New Aircraft Leases with China Southern (HKEx: 1055) (Businesswire)

Russia’s DST Builds More Valuation Froth 俄罗斯DST助长中国互联网企业估值虚高

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When historians write about the China Internet bubble of 2011-2012 years from now, they are likely to feature Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies (DST) as perhaps the biggest foreign force that pumped in big sums of money and drove up valuations to unsustainable levels. The company, which rose to prominence as an early investor in Facebook (Nasdaq: FB), has been a steady investor in Chinese Internet companies, and is now making headlines yet again with another reported purchase of a stake in Xiaomi, an up-and-coming maker of low-cost, high-performance smartphones. (Chinese article) The Chinese headlines are buzzing with news of this major new investment in Xiaomi, including an interesting twist that saw Internet giant Tencent (HKEx: 700) withdraw from the new investor group after Xiaomi refused to shutter one of its services that competed with Tencent’s Weixin instant messaging service. But I’m digressing from the main subject of this posting, which is that DST has become a major force behind China’s Internet bubble, repeatedly making big new investments that drive up valuations for some interesting start-ups — many of them money-losing companies — to overinflated levels. In a similar pattern seen in DST’s previous investments, unnamed sources in this instance are saying this new capital raising values Xiaomi at around $4 billion — a number that puts it in the same ranks as much older names like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) that have much longer operating histories. I have little doubt that the unnamed sources in this case are inside DST, as similar unnamed sources have also flouted sky-high valuations after DST made other recent investments in e-commerce leaders Alibaba (previous post) and Jingdong Mall, which also goes by the name 360Buy. (previous post) I wrote about Xiaomi earlier this year, as it really does look like an interesting company that is full of market potential due to its niche as maker of low-cost, high-performance smartphones that sell for around $300 each. (previous post) The company previously raised around $90 million in new funding last year, and counts such big names as Singapore’s Temasek, leading chipmaker Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM) and tech investment specialist IDG among its earlier investors. Furthermore, its CEO disclosed late last year that it sold nearly 400,000 of its first smartphone in 2011, and hinted its major new customers could include China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), China’s second largest wireless carrier. This kind of early progress is certainly encouraging, though I sincerely believe that DST isn’t doing Xiaomi or any of its other investments any favors by giving them more money than they probably need and filling the market with such high valuations. I’ve previously said that China’s overheated Internet space is in the midst of a much needed correction, which is already starting to see valuations for many companies come down. By the time the bubble finally finishes bursting, look for valuations of many of DST’s investments, and Internet companies in general, to be quite a bit lower than figures now in the market, more in line with peers from the US and Europe.

Bottom line: Russia’s Digital Sky is adding to China’s Internet bubble by investing in companies at inflated valuations, which will come down sharply by the time a current correction ends.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Xiaomi: A Fresh Face In Smartphones　　小米：智能手机新面孔

◙ More Internet Froth in Alibaba Valuation, Dangdang Price War 阿里巴巴估值奇高凸显网络泡沫

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

 

Airlines on Global Flight, New Tie-Ups Ahead? 航空公司环球飞行，未来有新合作？

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A sudden flurry of aviation news in the Chinese media leads me to suspect the government has issued a new directive for the country’s airlines to be more global, setting the stage for what could be an interesting worldwide expansion that could even include some mergers and acquisitions. Of course, I’m ultimately quite cynical about this kind of government directive, if that’s indeed what is driving this recent flurry of news, as it’s a typical move driven by central leaders in Beijing rather than market forces. But that said, I shouldn’t downplay the importance of support from Beijing for this new global drive, since the success of any global expansion will clearly require such support. Let’s look at the flurry of news first to give a flavor of what’s happening. Leading off the reports, Sichuan Airlines is in the headlines as it becomes one of China’s first regional carriers to launch international service to a Western market, in this case to the Canadian city of Vancouver. (company announcement) On the same day of the announcement, the China Daily, which focuses on global readers, also has 2 prominent stories centered on a recent drive by the nation’s airlines to become more global. Neither of those stories contains any hard news, but instead both are focused on efforts by China’s big carriers to recruit more foreign staff, especially flight attendants, to better serve international travelers. (English article) To underscore the internationalization message, the China Daily also contains another article saying Airbus will soon make its first sale to a non-Chinese customer for planes built at its joint venture in the city of Tianjin, with plans to deliver a jet to AirAsia Group in December. This flurry of stories comes just 2 months after China Eastern (HKEx: 670; Shanghai: 600115; NYSE: CEA), one of China’s top 3 carriers, announced plans to partner with Australia’s Quantas (Sydney: QAN) to launch a China-focused regional budget airlines based out of Hong Kong. (previous post) The timing behind all these announcements seems a bit too close to be coincidental, hence my earlier assertion that the airlines are probably acting on a new directive from Beijing to be more international. I’m not normally a big fan of airline stocks, but in this case a new global drive could open some interesting possibilities that might make these and other regional airline stocks interesting buys for their short term potential as acquisition targets and also joint venture partners. Air China (HKEx: 753 Shanghai: 601111), another of China’s top 3 carriers, already has a strong international partner in Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific (HKEx: 293). But look for potential new tie-ups between the other 2 big carriers, China Eastern and China Southern (Shanghai: 601766; NYSE: ZNH; HKEx: 1055), and also perhaps even some deals involving the smaller carriers like Sichuan Airlines as part of this new international drive.

Bottom line: A recent flurry of moves by Chinese airlines indicates they may be embarking on a drive to become more global, setting the stage for a new wave of potential international tie-ups.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Eastern’s Budget Play: Turbulence Ahead 东方航空成立廉价航空公司：将面临动荡

◙ Hainan Airlines Hits Free Market Turbulence 海南航空：自由市场是福还是祸？

◙ Ctrip Profit Slows Amid Online Travel Rush 在线旅游热潮中携程利润放缓

 

China Gears Up to Tackle Banking Crisis 中国准备应对银行业危机

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A pair of new reports in the Chinese media appear to be readying markets for news that the nation’s banks are on the brink of a crisis, even as Beijing is already devising ways to save them from the flood of bad loans that everyone is expecting. Let’s look at the bigger of the 2 reports first, which has China’s banking regulator expressing surprise at the “contradictory” fact that China’s top banks have yet to report significant rises in their non-performing loans (NPLs), even though many have seen recent surges in some categories of loans considered “problematic”. (English article) The article goes into a bit of detail after that, but the implication is rather straightforward. In a nutshell, the regulator thinks the banks are lying about the magnitude of their bad loan problem, using word games to classify loans as “problematic” even when they are already clearly “non-performing” by industry standards. This kind of word game is completely standard procedure for big Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that are always eager to give the central government good news, which often means hiding their problems behind this kind of accounting trick. That eagerness was on display in their recently released first-quarter earnings reports, when top lender ICBC (HKEx: 1398; Shanghai: 601398) reported its NPL ratio at the end of March was a sparkling 0.89 percent, while Bank of China (HKEx: 3988; Shanghai: 601988), the industry’s third largest lender, reported an equally stellar NPL rate of 0.97 percent. The banks continue to say there’s no problem, even as just about everyone else suspects they are sitting on a growing pile of bad loans made during a lending binge that was part of Beijing’s economic 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package at the height of the global downturn in 2009 and 2010. Many of those loans went to local governments for unnecessary infrastructure projects that had no real income sources with which to replay the debt. Most government were expecting to use land sales, which make up their main revenue source, to repay the debt; but that plan is quickly falling into doubt as Beijing shows no signs of easing policies to rein in the overheated real estate market, which has also dampened demand for new land for development. Earlier this year, Beijing indicated it might let the banks “restructure” many of their problematic loans to forestall the looming crisis, essentially allowing them to stop collecting payments for a year or 2 without officially classifying the loans as non-performing. (previous post) It’s unclear if the government ever officially gave the green light for that plan to go forward, but even if it didn’t many observers suspect the banks are using this and other similar accounting tactics to cover up the problems. Following this latest new probe by the regulator, I expect we’ll see most of the banks start to admit to their loan problems in the months ahead, with most confessing to NPL ratios of 3 percent or more by year end. In anticipation of that problem, Beijing is taking what looks to me like a second step to give the banks a relief mechanism to spread the bad loan problem more evenly around the country’s vast SOE system. That appears to be the message from the second piece of news I referred to at the start of this piece, which has Beijing launching a pilot program that will allow banks to securitize their loans and sell them off to other “investors”. (English article) I don’t mean to sound too cynical, but this program, which is starting with a relatively modest quota of 50 billion yuan, or less than $10 billion, looks suspiciously like a way for the banks to sell their bad loans to other major cash-rich SOEs if and when that becomes necessary. In a way, this kind of plan looks smart in helping to minimize the downside for individual companies by spreading the risk around a much wider base. But stock buyers who invest in these SOEs may hardly find that news comforting when, for example, investors in a big SOE like Sinopec (HKEx: 386; NYSE: SNP; Shanghai: 600028) suddenly discover their company is holding billions of dollars in securitized bad loans it purchased under orders from Beijing. Stay tuned for more of these kinds of smoke-and-mirror games as Beijing figures out how it wants to handle this looming financial mess and forces banks to admit to the problem.

Bottom line: Suspicions from China’s banking regulator indicate Beijing is making preparations to deal with its looming banking crisis, with potential plans to spread bad loans around the SOE system.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Goldman Flees ICBC as Bank Crisis Looms 中国银行业危机隐现 高盛迅速转让工行股票

◙ AgBank Results: First Look at Banking Winter 中国农业银行财报：银行业的冬天

◙ China Considers New Bank Rescue 中国考虑出台措施援救银行

Jingdong Mall on IPO Fast-Track 京东商城IPO提速

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After reports emerged last week that e-commerce giant Jingdong Mall’s on-again-off-again IPO was on again, it now appears the company is fast-tracking the deal with plans to list as soon as September, providing a big test for the anemic market for Chinese Internet IPOs in the US. It’s still too early to say how this IPO will fare, since it’s still at least 4 months away and a lot can happen to broader market sentiment in that time. Reports last week said that revenue at Jingdong, which also is known as 360Buy, reached 21 billion yuan and are expected to double this year. (previous post) The company has yet to provide any profit or loss figures, but I am quite confident it will show quite a big loss for 2011, possibly $100 million or more, when it finally releases that information, as it battles with other e-commerce names like Alibaba and Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) for market share. Lastly, we know from the earlier reports that Jingdong thinks it’s worth around $10-$12 billion, echoing comments from investors when the company received a record-breaking $1.5 billion investment last year (previous post); but the the company’s investment bankers are now saying a $6 billion valuation is much more realistic, meaning a final valuation might come in around $7 billion. Let’s look quickly at the latest reports, which come about a week after Jingdong reportedly held its first official meeting with analysts to discuss its upcoming offer. According to the reports, Jingdong could make its first non-public filings with the US securities regulator as soon as this month, and has hired Kate Kui, a big name former Bank of America Merrill Lynch banker, to lead the IPO charge. (English article; Chinese article). This sudden fast-tracking of the deal marks the latest chapter in schizophrenic signs from Jingdong, whose founder and chief executive Liu Qiangdong said several times early this year that an IPO was at least several years away, even as other unnamed sources said an offering could be coming in the next 12 months. These latest reports seem to indicate the group pushing for an IPO sooner rather than later has taken control of the situation. I find it a big strange that such a cash-rich company wants to make an offering in such a poor IPO climate, though it’s possible Jingdong’s cash situation could be tighter than many people realize. But I suspect the real reason for this fast-tracking is that the investors who bet $1.5 billion on Jingdong last year want to see some quick returns on their investment, since it’s far from clear what China’s e-commerce market will look like a year or more from now due to the rampant competition with the entry of a number of major global players. All that said, I would say the chances for Jingdong to complete its IPO by the end of this year are good, though it’s unlikely to get a great valuation and could end up raising just $1 billion or less due to poor market sentiment towards loss-making Chinese Internet companies.

Bottom line: Jingdong Mall is likely to complete an IPO by the end of the year, but will get a weak valuation on a deal that could ultimately raise only $1 billion or less.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Jingdong Mall: Back on the IPO Track? 京东商城上市：“狼”真要来了？

◙ China: Room for How Many Amazons? 中国电商市场到底有多大？

◙ Message to 360Buy: Make Up Your Mind! 京东商城IPO“暗战”

CNOOC Problems Keep Coming in Penglai 蓬莱中海油问题继续出现

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Oil exploration giant CNOOC (HKEx: 883; NYSE: CEO) is probably starting to wish it had never partnered with ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to develop oil fields in the Bohai Bay off the northeast China coast, following word that yet another leak has occurred at the problematic project. Frankly speaking, it’s hard to determine how bad the latest spill was at the Penglai oil fields being developed by ConocoPhillips in this troubled joint venture with CNOOC. The latest announcement from CNOOC indicates the spill was relatively minor, with around half a ton of oil leaked into the sea, all of which has already been cleaned up. (company announcement) But it’s natural to try and downplay this kind of thing and sometimes leave out important information, as I learned last week when car maker BYD (HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594) released a statement on one of its electric taxis that caught fire after a high speed crash, but conveniently omitted the information that 3 people were burned to death in the accident. (previous post) The Penglai oil leaks have provided a non-stop series of headaches for both CNOOC and ConocoPhillips since they first began last year, polluting big areas of ocean and shoreline and leading to calls for the companies to clean up the mess and pay damages to people whose livelihoods had been affected. ConocoPhillips ultimately agreed to pay more than $300 million to settle all the claims, a relatively modest amount for an accident of that magnitude, and CNOOC is also paying a smaller amount. (previous post) It’s possible that CNOOC has just become extremely cautious after all the controversy, and that’s the reason for its latest announcement about what may be a very small spill. Then again, it’s also possible that there’s more to the story than CNOOC and ConocoPhillips are saying, in which case the companies could have a very long summer ahead of them with more clean-ups and negative publicity. At the very least, the pair could be forced to shut down production at Penglai to show they are addressing any safety and environmental concerns and ensuring that the leaks come to an end once and for all. The pair already implemented a similar shutdown for several months last year while they stopped the leaks and cleaned up the spill, causing CNOOC to miss its oil production targets for 2012 by a relatively big margin. A similar shutdown, even if it’s just for a few weeks, could result in similar lost production, along with more negative publicity if the Chinese media decide to start reporting on the problem. Since we really do have very limited information in this case, I won’t make too many predictions except to say that I think there is probably more to this story than the simple company announcement indicates. If that’s true, look for more problems at Penglai during the summer, and possibly for CNOOC to make some downward revisions to its 2012 output target as a result.

Bottom line: The latest spill at the Penglai oil field indicates the problematic project continues to have problems, potentially forcing CNOOC to lower its 2012 output target.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ConocoPhillips Avoids Major Liability for Spill 康菲对渤海漏油事件赔偿额较低

◙ Stumbling CNOOC Replaces Chief Executive 中海油换将李凡荣接棒CEO

◙ CNOOC Parent Comes to Rescue

Regulator Exposes China Mobile’s 3G Exaggeration 官员披露中国移动虚夸3G用户数量

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I’ve always suspected that China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), the country’s dominant mobile carrier, vastly exaggerates the size of its 3G business, and now it seems like the more authoritative national telecoms regulator agrees with me. The news shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone, but it does provide a clearer picture of how the 3G market is developing in China, an important indicator since high-speed data services that can be delivered over 3G and upcoming 4G networks is clearly the wave of the future. Let’s look at the latest news, which has an official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology saying the number of true 3G subscribers in China is probably around 80 million, or about half the combined total reported by China Mobile, along with its 2 main rivals, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). (English article) The official puts the blame for the inflated total figure squarely on China Mobile, saying the nation’s top mobile carrier exaggerates its numbers by including many voice-only users among the subscribers for its 3G network. By comparison, Unicom’s and China Telecom’s 3G subscribers use their service for data-related products such as Internet surfing. China Mobile’s latest figures show the company had 62 million 3G subscribers. So if most of the inflation is coming from China Mobile, it’s probably fair to assume that as many as 50 million or more of the company’s 3G users are simply using the service for voice calling, reducing China Mobile’s total figure to a mere 10 million or so. Even that figure could be high, as I have yet to meet a single person who uses China Mobile’s 3G service for Web surfing, with nearly everyone preferring Unicom and China Telecom. Industry followers know the reason for China Mobile’s anemic 3G performance is largely due to the fact that the government forced it to build a network based on a homegrown technology called TD-SCDMA, which has been plagued with reliability problems and lack of handsets. China Mobile has shown signs of planning to boost its 3G efforts following the recent retirement of long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou, announcing a steady stream of new handsets and chips for TD-SCDMA phones. But it’s still unclear how serious the company will be on that front, with its new leaders sending out some troubling signals back in April that China Mobile will continue to focus its efforts on next-generation 4G services, which aren’t expected to receive an official license from the MIIT for at least another couple of years. (previous post) Perhaps this latest indirect criticism by the telecoms regulator will embarrass China Mobile into promoting its 3G service more aggressively, which it really needs to do to remain competitive with Unicom and China Telecom. Otherwise, it could not only become a bit player in the 3G space, but could also see its overall market position quickly slip as more and more mobile users migrate to data service plans.

Bottom line: The industry regulator’s disclosure that China Mobile vastly overstates its 3G subscribers reflects the company’s weak promotion of the service and bodes poorly for its future position.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Telecoms Regulator Plays 3G Target Games 工信部制定3G目标

◙ New China Mobile Chief Sends Bad Signals 中国移动新任领导传递糟糕迹象

◙ China Mobile Starts New Era as Wang Leaves 王建宙退休，中国移动开启新时代

China Lodging Adds Brand With Starway 汉庭旗下新增星程品牌

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An interesting trend is happening in China’s fledgling hotel space, where operators are diversifying their offerings by acquiring new brands in a bid to keep growing and appeal to a wider range of customers. China Lodging Group (Nasdaq: HTHT) has become the latest operator to make a move in that direction, announcing it has increased its stake in the Starway hotel chain to become the brand’s majority shareholder. (company announcement) At the same time, China Lodging Group, most known for its Hanting brand, announced plans to directly manage some new hotels under the Starway name, broadening its currently franchising model. The announcement doesn’t say much more, but it looks like China Lodging has big plans for expanding the Starway brand, which now has about 100 hotels and is known as a relatively reputable mid-range chain. The addition of Starway means China Lodging now has 4 major brands, Hanting, Season, Hi Inn and now Starway. Its growing stable of brands mirrors moves by the industry’s other 2 major US-listed players, Home Inns (Nasdaq: HMIN), which last year purchased the Motel 168 chain for $500 million; and 7 Days (NYSE: SVN), which purchased the smaller Huating chain for a more modest $21 million (previous post) Even industry veteran Jin Jiang (HKEx: 2006) is getting in on the act, pairing with a US company to form a joint venture that will manage hotels under other companies’ brand names. (previous post) In many ways, this kind of consolidation looks a lot like what happened in the US in the 1980s and 1990s, when the industry consolidated around 3 or 4 main players, including Marriott (NYSE: MAR) and Starwood (NYSE: HOT), which each now own a wide range of brands catering to everyone from budget travels to people who like to stay at posh and trendy hotels. This kind of consolidation is smart because it allows a single company to offer many products to different market segments, and allows them to aggressively expand the more popular brands to maintain their growth. It will be interesting to see how the situation plays out in the next few years, as the Chinese players are clearly focused on the budget and middle segments of the market, while the high end is still dominated by the big foreign brands. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one of the big Chinese brands acquired by a big international operator, which could use such an purchase not only to expand its presence at the low end of the China market, but could also potentially use it as a platform for expansion into other developing markets. Meantime, it’s also possible we could see a tie-up between one of the Chinese names and a regional higher-end regional brand like Shangri La (HKEx: 69) or Mandrarin Oriental. If that happens, I could easily see the world’s next major hotel operator emerging in China in the next decade, providing some interesting competition for the major Western names.

Bottom line: China Lodging Group’s addition of the Starway brand marks the latest consolidation move in China’s hotel business, which could eventually produce the world’s next major operator.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hotels: Room for Consolidation 经济型酒店行业或加速整合

◙ Hotel Consolidation Moves Ahead With 7 Days Deal 七天连锁酒店收购表明酒店业整合继续

◙ Jin Jiang Looks for Room at the Global Lodge 锦江集团寻求跻身国际高端酒店之列

 

Renren Weighs Game Unit Spin-Off 人人网考虑分拆游戏业务

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Renren (NYSE: RENN) investors tired of seeing losses quarter after quarter could soon have another alternative as China’s leading social networking site reportedly plans to spin off its online game unit into a separately listed company. If true, the news would mark the latest plan by an Internet company to spin off an individual business into a separate unit, as part of a broader trend by this sector to provide investors with clearer choices focused on specific businesses like games or e-commerce. Many of China’s Internet companies, especially the older ones, often have lots of different businesses, from portals, to games, e-commerce and social networking, under a single company. One or more of the businesses are often profitable and end up subsidizing the others that are losing money — frustrating investors who might like the profitable units but care less for the loss-making ones. In this latest case, media are citing unnamed sources saying Renren is crafting a plan to spin off its game unit by September, and would eventually list the business separately with an IPO. (Chinese article) Renren may have hinted at this move when it released its first-quarter results last month, at which time it said its online game revenue nearly doubled to $17.5 million, accounting for more than half of the company’s total revenue. (previous post) I’m normally not a big fan of online game stocks, as business for such companies can vary widely due to their dependence on 1 or 2 popular titles for success. But in Renren’s case, the company actually looks a bit more interesting than traditional rivals like Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) and The9 (Nasdaq: NCTY), which are simply game companies and little more. Renren brings the added advantage of millions of users for its core social networking site, which provide an instant audience for its games. For that reason, it could probably find more success with so-called casual gamers, the people who like to play games occasionally but aren’t as fanatical as hard-core players who can spend hours playing at Internet cafes. Renren hasn’t commented in too much detail on the game business, but presumably its profitable or would become profitable by the time of a public listing, most likely late this year or in early 2013. That would be an attractive alternative for investors, who have shunned Chinese IPOs for nearly a year now partly because most of the ones to list during that time were losing money. An IPO for Renren’s game unit would parallel a similar move by Internet portal Sohu (NYSE: SOHU), which spun off its gaming business into a separately listed company, Changyou (Nasdaq: CYOU) several years ago. Others reportedly weighing similar moves include gaming company NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES), which may spin off its portal business; and Internet giant Tencent (HKEx: 700), which recently reorganized and has discussed spinning off its e-commerce business. Look for more such spin-off plans in the next 12 months, potentially providing stock buyers with some more focused, and perhaps even profitable, China Internet investment options.

Bottom line: Renren’s reported plan to spin off its online games business is part of a trend that could see a flurry of similar moves and IPOs by profitable Chinese Internet companies in the next year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Renren: China’s Next Gaming Company? 人人网：中国下一个网游企业？

◙ Tencent E-Commerce: Another Money Loser IPO 腾讯电商：将又一个失败的

◙ NetEase Name Change: Spin-Off Coming 网易更名：预示业务分拆