Young’s China Business Blog will be on holiday from Monday through Wednesday in observance of the Chinese New Year Holiday. We’ll resume some limited publishing toward the end of the week, and will be back to a regular schedule next week. Happy Year of the Snake!
Journalist China
Sougou + So.com: Don’t Bet On It 搜狗和360搜索联合：不要指望
Interesting new rumors are appearing in the media about a possible alliance between 2 of China’s most up-and-coming search engines, Sohu’s (Nasdaq: SOHU) Sogou and Qihoo 360′s (NYSE: QIHU) So.com. While such an alliance looks very smart and could mount a serious challenge to longtime industry leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), I would be seriously skeptical that anything will ever happen. The main obstacle is simple, and is the same obstacle that prevents mergers and other strategic tie-ups from happening more broadly in China’s Internet world: big egos. In this case, we’re talking about 2 of the Chinese Internet world’s biggest egos who are notoriously difficult collaborators, namely Sohu’s chairman chief executive Charles Zhang and Qihoo’s founder and chief executive Zhou Hongyi.
2013: Year Of The Car? 2013：汽车之年？
The auto industry is humming over new data that show China car sales soared 45 percent in January, marking their strongest growth since April 2010 when government incentives during the global economic crisis helped to turbocharge the sector. Industry watchers are acknowledging that seasonal factors played a major role in this latest jump, but point out that they still expect to see a return to strong growth in the upcoming Year of the Snake as China’s economy improves and consumers rediscover their love affair with cars.
Dynasty Warning: Wine Bubble Bursting 王朝酒业发布盈利预警 葡萄酒行业泡沫破裂
There must be something festive in the air as Chinese New Year approaches, since I’m writing about the alcoholic beverages industry for the second time this week with word that leading domestic wine maker Dynasty Fine Wines Group (HKEx: 828) has issued a profit warning. But whereas my previous post talked about the big potential in the baijiu industry for high-alcohol spirits (previous post), my latest post is decidedly more downbeat and points to a big bubble starting to burst in the fast growing but increasingly crowded market for western-style grape-based wines.
SMIC, NetEase Look Sharp in Q4 中芯国际和网易业绩是个好兆头
Following earnings reports earlier this week that showed advertising business stabilizing at Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), we’re getting even more upbeat results from online game operator NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) and leading Chinese chip maker SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI), which points to a broader Chinese economic recovery. I’ll be honest and say I’m most encouraged by the news from SMIC, which for years has had huge potential but always failed to realize that potential due to management and other internal issues. The year 2011 saw the company suffer through a bruising power struggle, after which the 2 men at the center of the struggle were both thrown out of the company and a new experienced CEO was brought in to try and finally put the company on more solid footing.
SABMiller Thirsts For China Market； SABMiller看好中国市场
Western alcoholic beverage giant SABMiller (London: SAB) is making headlines for its newly announced deal to buy a major Chinese beer maker, raising the interesting possibility that other foreign firms could soon make bids for makers of traditional baijiu liquor. For those who don’t follow the China liquor market too closely, baijiu makers have been under pressure since the beginning of the year, when media first began reporting that their products contained unsafe levels of plasticizers. The ongoing crisis could provide some interesting buying opportunities for foreign alcoholic beverage makers like SABMiller and Diageo (London: DGE), which are eying a bigger share of China’s massive market for alcoholic beverages.
International Board: The Endless Wait 国际板：无休止的等待
Since China first announced its plans to launch an International Board several years ago, a group of overseas-based companies that do big business in China have been waiting patiently to list on the board to raise both cash and their profiles on the mainland. Many of those companies were genuine foreign firms, such as banking giants HSBC (HKEx: 5; London: HSBA) and Standard Chartered (HKEx: 2888; London: STAN); but an equally large group were Chinese companies like mobile carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) and PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which incorporated overseas so they could list their shares in Hong Kong. Now it appears that at least some of the Chinese companies that wanted to list on the International Board are losing their patience with the slow progress, with word that Lenovo’s parent and telecoms carrier China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) may both be exploring more traditional A-share listings for some of their units.
AsiaInfo: Buyout Dead? 亚信科技：收购告吹？
Despite reporting solid profit growth, telecoms software maker AsiaInfo’s (Nasdaq: ASIA) latest quarterly earnings report was more significant for what it did NOT contain, namely any mention of an ongoing plan to sell the company. Does this mean the deal is dead? In my view, the lack of any news on what once looked like a lively bidding war could indeed mean that buyers are no longer interested in AsiaInfo, perhaps because the company’s financials weren’t as attractive as many thought they might be or because the company wanted too big a premium for its shares.
China Mobile’s 4G Word Games 中国移动的4G“文字游戏”
I don’t know about other people, but I’m getting increasingly tired of China Mobile’s (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) non-stop string of word games as it aggressively pushes the country’s telecoms regulator to quickly issue 4G licenses that will allow it to offer a commercial 4G wireless service. But perhaps my frustration would be more appropriately directed at the telecoms regulator itself, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), whose massive bureaucracy means it often takes ridiculously long periods to approve just about anything, putting China’s telecoms market at a major disadvantage to global peers.
Sinopec Buys, Investors Pay 中石化并购 投资者买单
China’s oil and resource companies have been on a buying binge over the last year, snapping up global assets at what look like relative bargains from cash-strapped global companies under pressure to raise money. Beijing has been paying the bills for most of the purchases so far, but the latest announcement from oil refining giant Sinopec (HKEx: 386; Shanghai: 600028; NYSE: SNP) indicates that China may be testing the waters to see if investors are willing to help pay some of the bill in this global buying binge. If that’s the case, Beijing may soon face some major resistance from its major resource companies’ shareholders, who are likely to question whether Sinopec and other Chinese resource firms are getting good value for their money.
Baidu, Sohu Results: Ad Market Stabilizing 百度、搜狐财报：广告市场趋稳
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) are kicking off the China Internet earnings season with results that don’t look particularly exciting but do appear to show some early signs that China’s collapsing advertising market may be near a bottom. If that’s the case, look for the situation to stabilize and start to rebound as early as the second quarter for advertising-dependent firms, perhaps providing a good buying opportunity as spending starts to pick up around the middle of the year.
