There are several interesting developments today on big-name Chinese firms moving into the US, highlighting both the opportunities but also the risks for increasingly assertive Chinese names looking to expand into a market that is at once the world’s largest but also highly suspicious of China. Leading the news is dominant wireless carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), whose US expansion aspirations are reportedly running into trouble over familiar security concerns. (English article) That report is followed by another one saying Wanda Group, a real estate developer and owner of China’s largest movie theater chain, is in talks to buy some or all of AMC, operator of the second largest US movie theater chain. (English article) And last but not least, long-frustrated telecoms equipment maker Huawei appears to have found a new backdoor into the US through a new tie-up with local company Synnex (NYSE: SNX) to sell its enterprise products in the world’s biggest market. (English article) Let’s look at the China Mobile and Wanda-AMC developments first, as they’re certainly the newest and each provides an interesting challenge that many will be watching in the months ahead. US media are reporting that US national security officials, concerned about the potential for cyber-spying, may deny China Mobile’s recent request to provide mobile service between the US and China and to build facilities in the US. Their main concern is that China Mobile could use the US presence to gain access to local infrastructure that could then be used for spying and to steal intellectual property. This particular concern has become a popular refrain for Chinese telecoms firms trying to enter the US, with both Huawei and rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen 000063) both being denied access to the market numerous times due to similar concerns over the last year. Whereas Huawei and ZTE have both made significant efforts to improve their US images and ease spying concerns, I suspect that China Mobile has done little or nothing in this regard and for that reason its request is very likely to be vetoed. Meantime, other US media reports say that Wanda is talking with AMC’s private equity owners about buying some or all of the US theater chain, in discussions that began a year ago but have become more serious since then. Anything involving Chinese ownership in the US media space is also likely to be sensitive, despite China’s recent opening of its own media sector by allowing big names like Disney (NYSE: DIS) and DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) to form new animation joint ventures. Accordingly, I would also give this deal a good chance of failure, higher than 50 percent, both due to such sensitivities and also Wanda’s inexperience at this kind of overseas M&A. Lastly there’s Huawei, which is the most experienced in the US after a number of high-profile failed attempts to enter the market in the last 2 years. I quite like this deal with Synnex, which will see the US company sell Huawei routers and switches to US businesses for use in their internal networks, putting it in direct competition with Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO). These kinds of smaller sales are much less likely to attract controversy than Huawei’s previous efforts to build bigger mobile networks in the US, and thus could actually succeed and give Huawei its first chance to make a serious inroads to the elusive market.
Bottom line: New efforts by China Mobile to enter the US and a Chinese real estate firm to buy US theater operator AMC are likely to fail due to sensitivities, while a new Huawei initiative could succeed.
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