Bottom line: Ctrip’s offline travel alliance campaign looks like a shrewd move with good chances of success, while Tongcheng’s move back into profits shows the sector is heading into a new stable period.
Tongcheng travels back to profits
A couple of travel-related stories are in the headlines today, led by a blitz into the offline realm by leading online agent Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP). The other item has smaller rival Tongcheng reporting its first profit in four years, as it becomes the latest to emerge from a prolonged price war that bloodied the entire industry and sent most companies into the loss column.
Neither of these stories is huge, which partly reflects the fact that this industry is finally emerging from a brutal period to a new one of relative calm. But Ctrip is clearly looking for its next battle front, after consolidating its position by taking over most of its major rivals, including Qunar and eLong, to end the price wars. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Ctrip’s profits could double or more this year following its successful digestion of Qunar, providing some upside to its stock.
Ctrip shares set to take off?
As earnings season for US-listed Chinese stocks hits full throttle, I thought I’d take a look at the latest results from Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP), which are sending mixed but generally positive signals. That’s because Ctrip is in the process of digesting former archrival Qunar (Nasdaq: QUNR), which was the industry’s second largest player but is also losing quite a bit of money.
Ctrip pulled off the coup of the century a couple of years ago when it forged a deal that gave it a controlling stake of Qunar, acquiring the shares from former majority shareholder Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). I personally thought that deal should have received some regulatory scrutiny since it combined the top two players in the space. But the regulator apparently thought otherwise, or simply approved the deal if it was even asked. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Ctrip’s latest results and its first major overseas purchase point to a company with the wind at its back as it heads into a new phase, which could see it become China’s first globally competitive Internet company.
Ctrip buys Skyscanner
High-flying online travel agent Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) is taking its first major flight overseas, with announcement that it has just agreed to buy travel search specialist Skyscanner in a deal that values the British company at a hefty 1.4 billion pounds ($1.65 billion). At the same time, Ctrip has also reported earnings that show its bottom line is suffering some short-term pain as it swallows the profit-challenged Qunar (Nasdaq: QUNR), a former bitter rival that Ctrip now controls. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Tongcheng’s merger with Wanda’s travel unit could create a strong new rival to counter Ctrip, and could become even stronger through a potential future tie-up or merger with HNA-backed Tuniu.
Tongcheng merges with Wanda Travel
For more than a year Internet giant Ctrip(Nasdaq: CTRP) has seemed almost invincible, buying up most of its major rivals one by one to consolidate its position as the nation’s leading travel agent. But the company may finally be coming up against a major rival in its bid to dominate the lucrative sector, with word that real estate and entertainment giant Wanda has bought up Tongcheng, one of Ctrip’s last remaining major rivals.
This particular tie-up is slightly unusual, as Ctrip previously invested around $200 million for a stake that was reportedly as high as 30 percent in Tongcheng, according to media reports a couple of years ago. (previous post) That would have valued Tongcheng at about $650 million, which is a fraction of the valuation of more than 20 billion yuan ($3 billion) that Tongcheng was worth, based on the latest investment by Wanda. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: New quarterly earnings data show that China’s travel industry is on the cusp of a slowdown likely to last for at least the next 2 years, while a major new fund set up by Ctrip shows the sector still has strong longer-term growth potential.
Ctrip-backed Ocean Link launches $400 mln travel fund
A couple of items from the travel space are casting a spotlight on the risks and rewards of China’s travel sector, which has huge potential but is also susceptible to economic cycles. Highlighting the big potential is word of a new $400 million fund being launched by leading online travel agent Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and US private equity firm General Atlantic to invest in Chinese travel-related projects. Meantime, the downside was showing up in the newest results of BTG Hotels (Shanghai: 600258), whose first-half profit plunged after its recent buyout of budget hotel specialist Homeinns. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China’s airlines are likely to permanently ban independent travel agents from selling on Qunar and other third-party platform operators, dealing a serious blow to their air ticketing businesses.
Dead end near for Qunar air tickets?
The bad news just keeps coming for travel agent Qunar (Nasdaq: QUNR), with word that its online sales platform could soon be banned for sale of tickets from China Southern (HKEx: 1055; Shanghai: 600029), the nation’s largest airline. Media are reporting that China Southern is preparing to roll out a wide-ranging new policy to govern the agents who sell its tickets. A key part of that will ban agents from selling China Southern’s tickets over third-party platforms like the one that Qunar operates.
This particular bad news is significant but also incremental, since China’s major airlines have been slowly freezing out Qunar this year due to complaints from people who buy their tickets over the company’s online platform. That platform allows independent travel agents to sell tickets on Qunar’s site, with a growing number of agents using deceptive or even fraudulent practices to make sales. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China Southern’s new move to stop offering heavily discounted tickets through travel agents looks aimed at the growing clout of Ctrip, and other carriers could follow with similar policies.
China Southern takes aim at Ctrip
China’s largest airline has joined a growing uprising against increasingly dominant online travel agent Ctrip(Nasdaq: CTRP), with reports that China Southern (HKEx: 1055; Shanghai: 600029) will no longer offer its most heavily discounted tickets via third-party agents. The actual move will see China Southern offer tickets with discounts of 60 percent or more only on its own website.
The move is the latest by travel products and services providers who are unhappy with Ctrip’s growing clout in the market, following a string of deals last year that saw the company purchase strategic stakes in most of its major rivals. Since that has happened, a growing number of hotels, airlines and other travel services companies have complained they are getting squeezed by a group including Ctrip and its partners, whose position looks increasingly like a monopoly. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Tuniu’s new tie-up with HNA looks like a smart move that could position it as a leading provider of resort vacation packages, and could also signal the rise of a meaningful rival to industry leader Ctrip.
Tuniu travels to Hainan with HNA
Leading online travel site Ctrip(Nasdaq: CTRP) has emerged as the loser in a recent bidding war for a stake in smaller rival Tuniu (Nasdaq: TOUR), which has just announced a new alliance that will see it receive a $500 million investment from one of China’s top traditional travel companies. This latest in a recent flurry of deals from the travel space will see HNA Tourism get about a quarter of Tuniu’s shares for its investment, making it Tuniu’s largest shareholder.
HNA Tourism is a unit of HNA Group, one of China’s more dynamic state-run investors that is also parent of Hainan Airlines (Shanghai: 600221), one of the country’s best-run airlines. Based in the tourism-friendly island of Hainan, HNA certainly looks like a logical and well-connected partner for Tuniu, even though media were reporting last week that the more entrepreneurial Ctrip was in talks for a similar deal. (previous post) Read Full Post…
This week’s Street View takes us to the Shanghai tourism circuit, where several recent headlines are spotlighting the high ticket prices we pay for many of the city’s most famous attractions. This particular story seems to surface every time a major holiday approaches. In this case an unusual triple-header of holidays is coming, starting with a 3-day vacation for the 70th anniversary of the end of World War 2 next week, followed closely by the Mid-Autumn Festival and the October 1 National Day.
I’ve written previously about this phenomenon, though every time it seems like ticket prices are higher than the last time. But this time I also have some added perspective of how Shanghai compares to other cities, following my own summer travels to Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Sweden and Britain. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Qunar’s ballooning losses reflect its aggressive spending on market share, which will turn off investors and pressure its stock until it shows signs of moving towards profitability.
Qunar losses swell past revenues
My third-quarter Chinese earnings season officially ends today with the newly issued results of online travel agent Qunar (Nasdaq: QUNR), whose losses appear to be spiraling out of control. Frankly speaking, I could never really understand why investors were so attracted to this company, whose main asset seems to be its association with leading Chinese search engine Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which also happens to be Qunar’s majority stakeholder. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Ctrip’s explanation for a recent major share sale by top executives looks reasonable and shouldn’t be cause for concern, while Tuniu won’t gain any short-term advantage from its new war with Tongcheng.
Ctrip execs invest in cruising
A couple of news bits are cruising through the online travel space this first week, with industry leader Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and recently listed Tuniu (Nasdaq: TOUR) both engaged in new strategic moves. In the former case, Ctrip is explaining a recent wave of selling of its shares by top company executives, saying the move was prompted by their need for cash for a new strategic investment. The latter case has Tuniu reportedly engaged in an entertaining behind-the-scenes battle with unlisted rival Tongcheng for the lucrative and fast-growing overseas travel market. Read Full Post…
