Move over, QE II. Chinese banks, unsatisfied with the hundreds of billions of dollars they raised to bolster their balance sheets just two years ago, appear to be gearing up for Capital Raising II, with China Merchants Bank’s (HKEx: 3968 Shanghai: 600036) announcement that it will raise up to $5.4 billion through simultaneous rights offers in Hong Kong and Shanghai. (company announcement; English article) China Merchants is no doubt counting on the short memories of many investors, hoping they will forget that it announced a similar program almost exactly two years ago to raise a more modest $2.6 billion. So if my math is correct, China Merchants will have raised about $8 billion through these two offerings — a staggering amount when you consider its market cap in Hong Kong is only about $9 billion. Analysts will tell you this new round of CR II, which will undoubtedly be followed by more similar announcements from other major Chinese banks, is designed to meet Beijing’s ever rising capital adequacy ratio requirements as it tries to cool a racing economy that got that way in large part due to excessive state-ordered lending at the height of the global financial crisis. But this latest capital raising by China Merchants is starting to looking increasingly like an outright recapitalization of Chinese banks, which are no doubt woefully unprepared for the economic downturn and resulting piles of bad debt that many believe are coming. The small bit of good news in this is that Beijing, as the majority shareholder of all the major banks, will ultimately foot most of the bill for this ongoing recapitalization. The bad news is that the banks’ minority shareholders will also have to pay part of the bill, and that these stocks are likely to take a beating in the months ahead.
Bottom line: China Merchants announcement of its second major fund-raising in just two years looks like an outright recapitalization, and underscores the shaky position of all Chinese banks.
新一轮量化宽松来了。中国银行业不满足於两年前数千亿美元的集资规模，如今似乎将再次进行融资。中国招商银行<600036.SS><3968.HK>宣布，将在香港和上海发行权利股，筹集54亿美元。招行无疑是寄望於许多投资者健忘，希望他们记不起该行在两年前曾宣布过类似计划，集资26亿美元。所以，如果我计算正确的话，招行两次筹集资金总额约为80亿美元–鉴於招行在香港市值仅约为90亿美元，上述募资规模确实惊人。分析师会告诉你，本次新一轮融资是为满足中国政府不断提高的资本充足率要求，中国其他大型银行无疑亦将宣布类似举措。中国正试图为其经济降温，中国出现这种局面很大程度是因为全球金融危机最严重时，中国政府要求增发贷款过多。但招行本次筹资日益像是中国银行业一次资本重组，中国银行业显然未对经济低迷做好充足准备，许多人认为，大量坏账即将出现。好消息是，中国政府和各银行大股东终将为此次资本重组埋单。坏消息是，银行小股东也将不得不承担一部分费用，这些银行股未来数月或遭重创。
一句话：时隔两年，中国招商银行再次宣布大规模融资，看似一次彻头彻尾的资本重组，凸显中国各银行的问题。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ China Readies Market for More Bank Begging 中资银行准备再筹资
◙ ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill
◙ Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压
