Bottom line: China Mobile’s first-ever drop in 4G subscribers in April owes to the company’s early arrival to the space, and reflects the broader market’s maturation that is also adding similar pressures to Unicom and China Telecom.
Much ado is being made about new data from the three big telcos that includes a first-ever drop in 4G subscribers for industry heavyweight China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). This particular first seems to have been a long time coming, and really shouldn’t surprise anyone too much. The fact of the matter is that China’s mobile market has been nearing saturation for a while, and the nation’s big 3 telcos have been increasingly stealing customers from each other for the last two or three years as the number of unserved users dwindles.
The bigger question raised by this data is what the slowdown could mean over the longer term, when China Mobile and smaller peers Unicom(HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom(HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) might see slow or negative growth in subscriber terms. The answer to that question is that this trio will be able to feast on their protected home market for many years to come, though they may be forced to innovate a bit more in order to get a tapped-out audience to keep paying more for services. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China Mobile’s strong profit growth shows the company has executed well on its 4G strategy, including strong promotion of data services that have rapidly become its single largest revenue source.
After a bumpy period over the last 2 years as it rolled out its new 4G network, leading wireless carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) is finally reaping strong results from its efforts with some of the best profit growth I’ve seen in a long time. The company has just reported its interim results, which show that its profit jumped an impressive 9.2 percent in the second quarter, as it took advantage of its early entry to 4G to consolidate its place as the nation’s leading telco. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China Telecom and Unicom are likely to launch aggressive 4G promotions over the Lunar New Year holiday, sparking a recruiting war that could see up to a third of China’s mobile users on 4G service by the end of 2015.
A flurry of telecoms stories are buzzing through the airwaves on this last trading day of the Lunar Year in China, setting the stage for a turbocharged Year of the Sheep that should see the nation’s 3 telcos embark on a massive free-for-all to sign up subscribers for their new 4G networks. That certainly doesn’t sound too good for profits, since all 3 telcos will be spending heavily on both promotions and infrastructure to build their new networks. But investors could still get excited about these 3 telcos if they can get users to boost their spending, reversing a years-old trend that has seen average user spending steadily decrease. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: China could end 2015 with up to 450 million 4G subscribers, with telcos, 4G smartphone makers and mobile-focused Internet firms most likely to benefit from the massive migration.
China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) has just become the final of China’s big 3 telcos to announce an extremely aggressive subscriber target for its new 4G service, confirming my earlier prediction that the nation could end 2015 with as many as 450 million 4G users if everyone meets their goals. If they do reach those targets, it would represent a remarkable transformation that would see around one-third of the nation’s mobile users switching to 4G service by year end. That could provide a bonanza for not only the telcos, but also the smartphone makers and Internet service providers that would also benefit from such a mass migration. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: 2015 will see an acceleration in 4G services, with China Telecom and Unicom winning commercial FDD licenses in the first quarter and 2-4 VNO licensees potentially emerging as real rivals to the big 3 telcos.
A number of telecoms stories are in the headlines today, highlighting the huge hopes everyone has for new 4G services that will open up the market to a wide array of new products. Leading the headlines are word that China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and Unicom (HKEx: 763; NYSE: CHU) have gotten the green light to expand their trial 4G networks, as the nation’s 2 smaller mobile carriers play catch-up to industry titan China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL).
At the same time, another new report is showing the pathetic state of under-utilization for China Mobile’s 3G network, which uses a homegrown technology that has been plagued with problems. Finally there’s a third report saying the telecoms regulator has just issued its fifth and possibly final batch of virtual network operator (VNO) licenses, creating several dozen new carriers that will compete in in 4G by leasing capacity on the networks of the big 3 telcos. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A new management shake-up at China Telecom could hint at a coming period of instability for the company, which could hamper its performance just as it gets set to launch commercial 4G service next year.
I’ve been quite negative on China Unicom (HKEx: 763; NYSE: CHU) for quite a while now, as China’s second largest wireless carrier seems to be constantly undergoing new management reshuffles that have hobbled its performance since its creation 5 years ago through the merger of China’s 2 smallest telcos. But now the nation’s smallest wireless carrier China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) is showing signs of similar issues, with word that the company is also undergoing its own management shake-up affecting a growing number of top provincial-level executives. Read Full Post…
Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) highly anticipated iPhone 6 could face an uphill climb in China when it gets released next week, at least based on the first figures I’ve seen for how much the model will cost. According to the latest reports, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), the nation’s second largest carrier and Apple’s oldest partner in China, will sell the new iPhone 6 for a starting price of 5,288 yuan, or about $860. That would be significantly higher than the price tag of $750 that many believe will be the iPhone 6’s starting price when it goes on sale in the US later this month. Read Full Post…
After several false alarms, China’s slow-moving telecoms regulator has finally made its highly anticipated award of 4G licenses to the nation’s 2 smaller telcos, providing a much needed boost as they lose share to dominant telco China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). Now China Telcom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHA) will have to quickly build networks based on 4G FDD-LTE technology, the standard used in most of the rest of the world that will now finally make its debut in China. Read Full Post…
China’s 2 smaller telcos, China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), are reportedly urging the telecoms regulator to quickly give them new 4G licenses as they find themselves in the uncomfortable position of rapidly losing share to dominant carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). The development looks a bit worrisome from a broader market perspective, as it appears to show that 3 years of steady gains by the 2 smaller companies in the 3G era could quickly be reversed if the regulator doesn’t act soon, stifling competition and hurting consumers as China Mobile re-emerges as the nation’s overwhelmingly dominant player. Read Full Post…
Just days after Beijing reportedly issued an unusual order for China’s 3 telcos to rein in their promotional spending, leading carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941: NYSE: CHL) is detailing plans that look like it is preparing to do just the opposite. The company’s top executives were being quite talkative at a major telecoms show happening this week in Shanghai, and their aggressive push into 4G services was clearly at the top of their list of talking points.
The new message sends a signal that China Mobile will aggressively promote 4G for the remainder of the year, meaning we’re unlikely to see any cut in its promotional spending. To the contrary, the spending binge is likely to put further pressure on China Mobile’s fading profits, which have declined in each of the last 3 quarters.
I was disappointed but certainly not surprised to read that homegrown telecoms equipment giants Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) won the big majority of a major new batch of contracts from dominant wireless carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) to build its 4G network. Regular readers will know that I’m a strong advocate of free trade, and believe that Chinese and western equipment sellers should receive 4G contracts in any country roughly in line with their global market share. But in China such major purchasing often has a political element, especially when the buyer is a state-run company, which is clearly the case here. Read Full Post…