Tag Archives: 中兴通讯

Apple Prepares to Bring Anti-Android Drive to China 苹果计划在华反击Android

By on

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has taken the interesting step of getting 40 new patents in China, in what looks like an opening move that could ultimately see it target the growing number of Chinese cellphone makers that use Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android cellphone operating system. (English article) The report in the China Daily focuses on the more obvious potential aims of the patents, such as closing a slew of bogus Apple stores that have sprung up in China as Apple’s sales have soared to surpass those of leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992). (previous post) But the article points out the new patents also cover Apple’s popular user-friendly smartphone operating system (OS), which has been largely responsible for the huge boom in its iPhone and smartphone sales in general over the last 3 years. Apple has argued that Google’s free Android OS, which has been embraced by many of the world’s top cellphone makers, is a copycat of its own OS, and has successfully sued to halt the sale of popular Android-based smartphones and tablet PCs from Taiwan’s HTC (Taipei: 2498) and Korea’s Samsung (Seoul: 005930). Based on that behavior, this new round of patent filings in China looks like Apple is preparing to sue Chinese smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo and TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618; Shenzhen: 000100), which all use Android. ZTE in particular could be at big risk, as its recent drive to become a global leader in smartphones costing as little as $100 each (previous post) relies heavily on Android. If Apple does file such a lawsuit, it will be interesting to see how China’s courts react as obviously any ruling in Apple’s favor could deal a big blow to the domestic industry. But anyone industry watchers should also note that Chinese courts don’t appear to have any power to make temporary rulings like judges do in the US, meaning any enforcement action can only occur after a judge makes a final decision — a process that could take months or even a year. Still, considering Apple’s success so far in the US against giants like Samsung and HTC, Chinese smartphone makers would be well advised to start drawing up plans for new Android alternatives if and when Apple moves its anti-Android battle to China.

Bottom line: Apple’s new round of patents in China look like the prelude to lawsuits against domestic smartphone makers like ZTE, which rely heavily on Google’s free Android operating system.

苹果(AAPL.O)在华成功申请了40项新专利，其终极目标看似是对采用谷歌(GOOG.O)Android系统的中国手机商亮剑的第一步。《中国日报》的报导侧重苹果旨在专利维权的一面，例如关闭苹果山寨零售店等。由于苹果电脑在华销量大涨，超过PC领军企业联想(0992.HK)，苹果山寨店如雨後春笋般涌现。但文章指出，苹果新申请的专利还包括其界面友好的智能手机操作系统(OS)，这一操作系统是过去三年推动iPhone和智能手机销量整体上升的重要原因。苹果辩称，全球许多顶级手机商采用的谷歌免费提供的Android系统，是抄袭苹果OS系统的设计。苹果还在宏达电(HTC)(2498.TW)和三星(005930.KS)专利侵权案中胜诉，成功迫使两家公司的Android智能手机和平板电脑暂停销售。鉴于此举，苹果在华新一轮的专利申请，看似将准备起诉使用Android系统的中国智能手机制造商，例如中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想和TCL通讯(2618.HK)。中兴通讯面临的风险尤其大，因为其近期力争成为售价低至100美元的智能手机的全球领军企业，该公司的这一计划严重依赖Anroid系统。如果苹果提出侵权诉讼，中国法院如何回应是件有趣的事情，因为任何明显有利于苹果的判决，都将重创中国手机产业。但业内观察者也指出，中国法庭进行终裁後才会有执行举措，而法庭裁判过程往往耗时数月甚至一年。话说回来，考虑到苹果在美胜诉三星和宏达电侵权，中国智能手机商最好早做打算，制定替代Android的新计划，以防苹果万一在华打响反击Android战役。

一句话：苹果在华新一轮专利申请，看似是起诉中兴通讯等中国智能手机商的前奏，这些本土企业严重依赖谷歌免费提供的Android操作系统。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

By on

Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.

Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.

百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台，尽管许多人猜测，易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争，但我们目前知道，至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻，不妨告诉你吧，这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商，近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎，并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作，我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟，谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持，而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会，不再提出批评意见，我想说，百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择，这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明，与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比，中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品，所以，或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名，事实上，我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功，百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作，中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单，证明易平台可靠且人性化，我认为，百度有50%的机率，占据移动平台市场较大份额，这一比例或高达15-20%。

一句话：百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质，是其推广易平台的第一步，百度需要与更多大型手机商合作，才有望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

By on

I don’t know whether to call Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) latest series of initiatives smart or desperate, as we’re not getting quite enough information just yet to make an informed decision about upcoming plans to launch its own mobile operating system (English article) and revamp its online homepage. (English article) In my view, both of these major new initiatives, which have the potential to greatly help or harm Baidu, are driven at least partly by its realization that Beijing anti-trust regulators are watching it closely, and that it needs to quickly find some new businesses in case those regulators ever decide to take anti-trust action against it. That said, both of these new initiatives are fraught with risk, and Baidu’s past record of poor execution outside its core search area makes me think both are more likely to fail than succeed. From what I’ve read in media reports, Baidu’s home page revamp looks aimed at getting more users to register on the site, allowing Baidu to sell them a range of new products it is trying to develop to diversify beyond search. In announcing the revamp, Baidu chief Robin Li openly admitted the changes may drive some Web surfers to its competitors, and perhaps he’s even hoping some of the lower-quality users may leave to make his company look less like a monopoly. As to the new mobile operating system, this looks like Baidu trying to imitate much larger global rival Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), whose Android has quickly risen to become the world’s top smartphone OS. On this topic, Baidu seems to be a bit late coming to the game, but could perhaps be helped by Google’s recent plan to buy cellphone maker Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), which seems to be alienating many other Android smartphone makers that believe Google will give special  treatment to Motorola. That development may offer an oppurtunity for Baidu, which could find potential interest for its mobile OS especially among domestic smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. But I wouldn’t bet money on success for either the new OS or Baidu’s new homepage.

Bottom line: Baidu’s new homepage and mobile OS initiatives are its latest attempts to divert attention from its near monopoly status in online search, and both stand a good chance of failure.

百度(BIDU.O)计划推出手机操作系统，并对网站主页进行改版。因为了解到的信息不足，我不知道应该把百度近期的这些举动称为明智之举还是绝望中抓稻草。这两项重大举措或许让百度获益匪浅，也有可能让百度遭受重大冲击。不过，我认为至少部分可归因于百度已经意识到，政府反垄断监管机构正密切关注其业务，公司需要迅速开发新业务，以规避监管机构决定对其采取不利行动的风险。也就是说，百度两大新举措都伴有风险。鉴于百度此前在核心搜索业务以外的业务表现欠佳，我认为这两项新尝试失败的机率较大。我看到的媒体报导称，百度主页改版旨在吸引更多用户注册，从而推销除搜索以外的一系列新产品，实乃对业务多元化的尝试。百度董事长李彦宏在宣布网页改版时公开承认，改版或将一些用户推向竞争对手，他甚至希望，一些低质量的用户能因此离去，从而让百度看起来不那麽像垄断企业。至于新的手机操作系统，百度似乎想模仿谷歌(GOOG.O)，谷歌的Android系统已经迅速成长为全球顶级智能手机操作系统。在这方面，百度似乎有些後知後觉，但谷歌近期收购摩托罗拉移动(MMI.N)可能会对百度有利。谷歌的收购行动可能令其它Android手机厂商认为，谷歌将为摩托罗拉提供特别优惠，因此疏远谷歌。中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)和华为等本土智能手机制造商或对百度的移动操作系统感兴趣。然而，我还是不敢保证，百度新推出的手机操作系统和主页改版一定会成功。

一句话：百度主页改版，以及推出手机操作系统，是百度转移监管机构对其垄断地位关注的最新尝试，两项举措最终失败的可能性都很大。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

 

Ericsson, ZTE Spat May be Near Resolution 爱立信与中兴的官司尘埃落定？

By on

Eight months after the news first broke, we’re finally getting a little more color on the potentially devastating lawsuit filed against telecoms equipment and cellphone maker ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) by global rival Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), and things don’t look as bad as they did initially. Few details were given when Ericsson filed the suit in Britain back in April, but the action had the potential to halt ZTE’s sales in major European markets. (previous post) ZTE fired back with a meaningless lawsuit filed in China a short time later, but both companies have been largely mute on the subject since then. But now Chinese media are reporting an Ericsson executive attending an event in Beijing made some brief remarks on the matter in response to a question, and it looks like this whole issue is simply a question of money. (English article) That’s quite an important distinction, as companies that file such lawsuits usually do so with one of two objectives in mind. Companies like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) usually file their IP lawsuits to force a competitor to stop making a product altogether. But in many other instances, which appears to be the case with Ericsson vs ZTE, the company filing suit simply wants another company to pay royalties by forcing the offending company to legally license its technology. If that’s the case here, then I would expect a resolution of this dispute in the near future. Of course, any new licensing deal will hurt ZTE, whose low costs are one of its chief advantages, by driving up those costs. But in the longer term, ZTE will be able to continue selling its products in Europe and elsewhere without interruption, and the company can return to competing against Ericsson in the marketplace rather than in the courtroom.

Bottom line: New remarks from Ericsson suggest its lawsuit against ZTE is all about licensing and money, and a resolution could soon be forthcoming.

从纠纷一开始到现在已有八个月之久，现在我们终于对此事有了多一些了解。电信设备商爱立信(ERICb.ST)此前在欧洲一纸诉状将中兴通讯(0763.HK; 000063.SZ)告上法庭，该诉讼看起来可能给中兴致命重创，不过目前状况看起来并没有当初那麽差。4月份，爱立信在英国起诉中兴通讯，外界对相关细节知之甚少。但诉讼有可能阻止中兴通讯在主要欧洲市场的销售。中兴通讯很快就予以回敬，在中国对爱立信提起诉讼。此後，两家公司在这个问题上双方基本沉默不语。但是中国媒体近期报导，一名在北京参加活动的爱立信高管在回答提问时此事做了简短的评论，看起来整个事情仅仅是钱的问题。这是一个非常重要的分界线。企业提起此类诉讼时，除了钱的目的外，往往希望一箭双雕。苹果(AAPL.O)等公司发起专利诉讼通常是为了迫使竞争对手停止产品生产。但更多情况下，一家企业提起诉讼通常是为了迫使另一家企业购买技术许可，支付专利费，爱立信与中兴通讯的纠纷似乎就属这种情况。如果事实确实如此，我预计近期两家公司应该就能解决纠纷。当然，任何新的许可协议都有损中兴通讯，因低成本是它的主要优势之一。但从长远一些来看，中兴通讯可以在欧洲等地继续产品销售工作，继续与爱立信同台竞争，而非仅仅局限于法庭之上。

一句话：爱立信高管最近的表态暗示，爱立信与中兴通讯的官司仅仅属于授权许可与钱的问题，纠纷不久应该就能尘埃落定。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ZTE Pressures Ericsson With China Suit — NOT 中兴反诉爱立信

◙ Huawei, ZTE Spat Heats Up 华为中兴之争升级

◙ ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

By on

The rest of the world may be buzzing about Steve Jobs’ announcement that he will retire as CEO of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), but my attention has been captured by a smaller piece of news that Apple may soon enter the low-cost smartphone business. Apple never discusses its future plans, and accordingly this latest piece of news is only gossip so far, citing two knowledgeable sources saying a low-cost version of the iPhone 4 is now being developed to go head-to-head with a segment of the market now dominated by phones running on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) free Android operating system. (English article) If true, such a development could provide not only headaches for Google and Android, but also for the growing field of Chinese smartphone makers that have relied on the free operating system to develop low-cost models favored not only in developing markets like China, but also by cost-conscious consumers in developed  markets like the US and Western Europe. Up-and-comer ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) would be most vulnerable to such a move by Apple, having staked its future on grabbing global market share with its low-cost Android based smartphones. Other companies that look vulnerable include Lenovo (HKEx: 992), whose young smartphone initiative is already sputtering just a year after its launch, and ZTE rival Huawei, which is also trying to make a splash with smartphones as growth for its older telecoms equipment business starts to slow. Such a move by Apple could also hit the prospects of TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618), whose cellphone business has posted a strong comeback in the last year after taking a serious hit after it acquired money-losing assets from Alcatel (Paris: ALUA) six years ago. I actually know the Reuters reporters who wrote the Apple low-cost iPhone story, and both are quite reliable so I’m fairly confident it’s only a matter of time before low-end iPhones hit the market. If and when that happens, look for the Chinese smartphone makers to suffer big headaches as a result.

Bottom line: Apple’s launch of a low-end iPhone could further cement its dominance in the global smartphone market, at the expense of Chinese players like ZTE, Lenovo and Huawei.

当人们热议乔布斯辞去苹果(AAPL.O)首席执行官（CEO）职务时，我关注的新闻是，苹果或即将打入低端智能手机市场。苹果从不讨论其未来计划，但两名消息人士透露，苹果正在研发低端版iPhone 4，将与谷歌(GOOG.O)Android操作系统手机占据的一部分市场进行正面交锋。尽管这还只是传闻，但如果消息属实，这一研发不仅让谷歌和Android业者头痛，也会让中国智能手机制造商苦不堪言。後者依赖免费的Android操作系统，研发低成本机型，这些低端机型不仅受到中国等发展中国家青睐，在美国和西欧等发达市场，也受到节俭消费者的欢迎。苹果此举或让中兴通讯(0763.HK)(000063.SZ)最“受伤”。中兴将公司未来押宝在利用低端Android智能手机掠夺全球市场的战略上。其它容易受创的公司包括联想(0992.HK)和华为。联想启动仅一年的智能手机项目已取得不俗成效，华为则因电信设备业务增长放缓，同样试图推智能手机业务提振业绩。苹果推低端版iPhone也会对TCL通讯(2618.HK)发展造成影响，TCL通讯六年前收购阿尔卡特-朗讯(ALUA.PA)亏损的手机资产後一度严重受创，但去年该部门业绩强势反弹。我认识报导苹果可能推低端版iPhone手机消息的两位路透记者，他们的消息都很可靠，所以我很有理由相信，该款手机上市只是时间问题。如果苹果发布低端版iPhone 4，我预计将让中国智能手机商极为头痛。

一句话：苹果推出低端版iPhone，或进一步巩固其全球智能手机市场主导地位，代价则是中兴通讯、联想和华为等中国手机制造商受到冲击。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

By on

While the rest of the world buzzes about Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) blockbuster deal to buy Motorola Mobility (NYSE: MMI), eyes in China are more focused on a worrisome report regarding struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), which once dominated the Chinese market but is rapidly losing share to up-and-comers like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). According to the report, a growing number of Chinese sellers are refusing to accept shipments of Nokia phones, in what looks like a rebellion after years of being bullied by Nokia when it dominated both the China and global markets.  (Chinese article) The article doesn’t provide a lot more detail, but does say the insurrection has been going on since April, and could see Nokia report sharply lower sales in the world’s largest cellphone market by subscribers when second-quarter numbers start to come out. If true, this rapid fall in fortunes for Nokia would mirror its rapid global decline. Chinese consumers, like everyone else, are always looking for the latest and coolest cellphone, and Nokia’s offerings just don’t look nearly as sleek as smartphones from Apple or Samsung. What’s more, lower end producers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) are appealing to more cost-conscious consumers, offering cool, low-priced smartphones costing as little as $100 each based on Google’s Android operating system. Nokia, by comparison, can only offer phones based on its own Symbian system, which most people find uninspired and is due for retirement by the end of this year. The trend for Nokia resembles what happened several years ago in China to Motorola, whose fall from grace was also rapid and for similar reasons. If this report is true, and I think there’s a good chance it is, Nokia could easily lose its crown as the top mobile phone seller in China within the next year.

Bottom line: A rebellion by Chinese cellphone sellers against Nokia reflects the company’s broader fall from grace, and could see it lose its market-leading position in China in the next 12 months.

谷歌<GOOG.O>收购摩托罗拉移动<MMI.N>成为全球热议话题，而在中国，一份有关诺基亚<NOK.N>的报告更令人关注。诺基亚曾是中国手机市场霸主，但其市场份额正迅速被苹果<AAPL.O>和三星<005930.KS>等新秀蚕食。该报告显示，大批中国代理商拒绝进诺基亚手机，看起来很像一场对诺基亚主导国内外市场多年的反抗。文章并未提供更多细节，但称从4月起，中国各地代理商开始对诺基亚“说不”。二季度数据出炉时，诺基亚在华销量料将大幅下滑。如果情况确实如此，诺基亚盈利迅速减少，将反映其在全球市场的迅速衰落。与其他国家一样，中国消费者也总是青睐最酷的新款手机，而诺基亚手机难与苹果或三星的智能手机媲美。此外，中兴通讯<0763.HK><000063.SZ>等较低端手机生产商推出时尚的Android智能手机，每款售价低至100美元，对节省开支的消费者更具吸引力。相比之下，诺基亚只有采用塞班系统的手机，许多人觉得该系统缺乏新意，预计将於今年年底前“退役”。这很像几年前摩托罗拉在华面临的困境，摩托罗拉当年也是由於类似原因，迅速走下坡路。如果这份有关诺基亚的报告属实，我认为，诺基亚很可能将在明年失去中国手机市场霸主地位。

一句话：中国大批代理商对诺基亚手机“说不”，证明诺基亚手机进一步“失宠”，或在一年内失去在华市场的主导地位。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Motorola, Huawei Settle, Now Everyone Can Move On 华为与摩托罗拉和解，各方均受益

◙ Guest Post: Move Over Nokia and RIM, Here Comes HTC

ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

By on

Telecoms firm ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) latest earnings show a sharp divergence in its top and bottom line growth, the result of  a big new gamble on its small but fast-growing smartlphone business that it hopes will offset sluggish growth at its networking equipment unit. The company says  its revenue grew around 30 percent in the second quarter, a strong improvement over the first quarter, but that its latest quarterly profit actually fell more than 20 percent, a sharp about-face from 16 percent growth in the previous quarter. (company announcement) It cites an aggressive gamble on its smartphone business behind the profit decline, as it sells its smartphones, mostly based on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating system, at ultra-low prices in a bid to become one of the world’s top 5 vendors in the next 2 years. ZTE said its smartphone unit sales rose 400 percent to 5 million in the first six months of the year, even as gross margins for all handsets fell sharply on its aggressive smartphone pricing. A company source previously told me ZTE hopes to sell $600 million worth of smartphones in the US this year alone (previous post), and based on reports I’ve seen saying many of those phones could retail for as little as $100, ZTE will need to sell more than 6 million of those phones in the US alone to meet that target. Such plays for rapid market share gains are a risky bet, with Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) serving as a classic case of a company whose willingness to gain share at the expense of profits nearly drove it to bankruptcy a decade ago and are threatening to undermine it again. Still, I would give this ZTE initiative a 50-50 chance of success, provided it can really post the rapid market share gains it expects in the next 1-2 years and then use its new clout to slow raise prices to more sustainable levels. In this case execution will be key, which could work to ZTE’s disadvantage as this such strong execution isn’t typically a strong point for many Chinese firms.

Bottom line: ZTE’s decision to sacrifice short-term profits to rapidly expand its smartphone business is a risky but potentially profitable bet, with a 50-50 chance of success.

在中兴通讯最新财报上，公司营收与利润差异巨大，而原因主要在于其押注规模较小但增长快速的智能手机业务，公司希望利用这块业务来弥补其网络设备业务的缓慢增长。中兴通讯发布业绩快报称，第二季度公司营收增长大约30%，较一季度有很大改善，但是二季度利润下降超20%，而其一季度为16%的正增幅。公司解释称智能手机业务是利润下降原因，因公司为能够未来两年内位列全球五大手机厂商，其智能手机售价非常低。公司还表示，今年上半年其智能手机销量上升400%，达到500万部。一名公司消息人士此前曾向我透露，中兴通讯希望今年在美销售总额达6亿美元的智能手机。而据我所看到的报导，手机售价可能低至100美元，如果按此计算，中兴通讯仅在美国就需要卖出600多万部手机才能实现目标。这种为快速获得市场份额的举动可谓冒险，台湾宏基(2353.TW)就是一个经典案例。该公司通过牺牲利润来换取市场份额，几乎让它在十年前濒临破产。不过，我觉得中兴的这种策略依然有50%的成功机率，前提是中兴真的能在未来1-2年快速获得其预期的市场份额，然後利用其新的影响力逐渐将价格提高至更可持续的水平。在该案例中，执行将是关键，但可能不是中兴的强项，因这种执行力通常不是很多中国企业的强项。

一句话：中兴牺牲短期获利来换取智能手机业务快速发展的决定有风险，但可能也是有利可图的，其成功机率为50%

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ ZTE’s US Back Door, Huawei’s Foreign Hire 中兴通讯的美国後门 华为的海外招贤

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

ZTE’s US Back Door, Huawei’s Foreign Hire 中兴通讯的美国後门 华为的海外招贤

By on

The relentless drive by telecoms equipment giants Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) to break into the US continues, with the pair taking decidedly different approaches in their quest to be first to make big bucks in the world’s most lucrative telecoms market. First ZTE. While everyone has focused on ZTE’s frustrations in the US selling networking equipment, most notably its failure to win a big contract earlier this year from Sprint (NYSE: S) (previous post), the company has quietly become a major force in the much lower profile but still quite lucrative US cellphone market selling its low-cost smartphones. One of my company sources tells me that ZTE is currently on track to sell $600 million worth of cellphones in the US this year, or double its volume from 2010, as it focuses on a product where it has done well and, equally important, which is far less sensitive than networking equipment that tends to raise security concerns. While $600 million isn’t huge for a company like ZTE, it’s still around 6 percent of the company’s forecast revenue for this year, which is still significant and could easily become more so if it can continue the strong growth with its low-cost smartphones. For Huawei, Chinese media are reporting the company has hired John Suffolk, former chief information officer of the British government, as the company’s new global cyber security officer. (English article) This move looks quite brilliant, as Huawei clearly has landed someone with strong Western government connections and telecoms security background to play a dual role in not only advising it on how to make its equipment more secure against cyber attacks, but also to ease government concerns in the US and Western Europe that Huawei’s equipment might somehow pose a risk of spying by the Chinese government. Huawei’s step is only the latest in a long series of moves aimed at solidifying its long-term position in the global telecoms market, and at this rate I wouldn’t be surprised  to see it not only score its first big US sale in the next year, but also to take over the spot as the world’s top mobile networking equipment maker from Sweden’s Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb) in that time frame.

Bottom line: ZTE could broach the $1 billion sales mark in the US next year through its fast-growing cellphone business, while Huawei’s latest hire should help it enter the US in the next year.

中国两大电信设备提供商–中兴通讯<00063. SZ><0763.HK>与华为<HWT.UL>继续努力打入美国市场，但是策略迥异。先说中兴通讯。当人人还都在念着中兴通讯向美国市场出售网络设备上的挫折，特别是今年稍早未能赢得Sprint<S.N>一项巨大合约时，这家公司已经悄悄成为了美国手机市场的一支重要力量，在这里销售其平价的智能手机。一名公司消息人士告诉我，中兴正推动今年在美国手机销售达6亿美元，较2010年翻番。中兴在手机领域表现不错，而且这块市场不像电信设备那麽敏感。6亿美元对中兴不算太大，但仍然占到了公司今年财测的6%左右，这相当不错，而且如果其低成本智能手机销售强劲势头继续，那麽中兴手机业务将会占据更重要的分量。再说华为。据中国媒体报导，华为已聘请英国政府前首席信息官约翰•萨福克（John Suffolk）担任全球网络安全官。此举看起来非常聪明。华为显然是请到了既有很强西方政府关系、又有电信安全背景的人来发挥双重作用：萨福克不仅可以建议华为面对网络袭击如何增强设备的安全性，还可缓解美国与西欧等政府的安全忧虑。华为意欲巩固其在全球电信市场的长期地位，此举只是一系列朝向这个目标的举措之一。以目前的速度来看，华为如果明年锁定首笔在美的重大销售交易、且超过爱立信<ERICb.ST><ERICb.ST>成全球头号移动网络设备制造商，我不会感到意外。

一句话：明年，中兴通讯借助手机业务的快速增长，明年有可能在美国市场的销售突破10亿美元大关。而华为此次招贤则应会帮助它明年踏入美国市场。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Huawei Hunting for Good Will in Canada Tie-Up 华为在美成立研发中心

◙ Huawei on PR, Spending Blitzes to Shore Up Global Prospects 华为砸钱大打公关战 打造国际形象

Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

By on

After saying on several occasions earlier this year that 4G licenses won’t be issued for at least the next 2-3 years, China’s telecoms regulator is subtly shifting its message, no doubt under heavy pressure from China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), which would like to see such licenses issued sooner rather than later. Chinese media are now quoting an official from the regulator at an event this week saying that 4G licenses will be awarded when the technology is “mature.” (Chinese article) He then goes on to say how China Mobile has launched expanded trials for its 4G standard, TD-LTE, in six major cities, and that results so far have been promising. I sense a definite shift in this quote from the ministry’s previous stance, in which it indicated it wanted to wait for new 3G systems launched two years ago by the country’s 3 telcos, China Mobile, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), to gain traction before awarding 4G licenses. Industry watchers will know that China Mobile has been rapidly losing share in the 3G market after being forced to use a homegrown wireless standard, TD-SCDMA, that lacks maturity and a wide range of smartphones to make it attractive to most consumers. It has been lobbying hard for the regulator to let it roll out a 4G system, based on more widely used technology, and these latest comments seem to indicate the regulator might issue a 4G license to China Mobile first if it feels TD-LTE is ready for commercialization. If that happens, I could see China Mobile receiving a 4G license in as little as a year from now, which could provide a boon to telecoms equipment makers like Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALU), and could help China Mobile regain some of the momentum it has lost to Unicom and China Telecom.

Bottom line: A subtle shift in comments from the telecoms regulator indicate a softening stance toward the issuance of 4G licenses, paving the way for China Mobile to get one such license in as little as a year.

今年早些时候，中国电信监管部门多次表示，至少在未来2-3年内不会发放4G牌照，但现在其口风出现微妙的变化，无疑是受到中国移动<0941.HK>的压力。该公司希望能早点发放4G牌照。  中国媒体援引监管部门一官员在本周一次活动上的话报导称，4G牌照何时发放取决於技术的成熟度。接着他还介绍了在中国六大城市开展的TD-LTE规模试验，并表示测试效果良好。我从这名官员的发言中察觉到工信部立场与此前相比发生了变化。之前工信部曾表示，希望中国三大移动运营商中国移动、中国联通<CHU.N>和中国电信<CHA.N>推出的3G网络强化後再发放4G牌照。业内观察者将会注意到，因使用中国自己的TD-SCDMA无线网络标准，中移动在中国3G市场的份额正迅速流失。中国移动一直在努力游说工信部，允许其推出4G系统，工信部官员近期言论似乎暗示，如果该部觉得TD-LTE商业化时机成熟，或会首先向中国移动发放4G牌照。如果是这种情况，我认为，中国移动最短在一年内就可拿到4G牌照，这对爱立信<ERICb.ST>、华为、中兴通讯<000063.SZ><0763.HK>和阿尔卡特-朗讯（Alcatel-Lucent）<ALUA.PA>等电信设备制造商将是利好，并可能有助於中国移动夺回中国联通和中国电信抢走的部分市场份额。

一句话：工信部官员口风的微妙转变暗示，该部在4G牌照发放问题上的立场软化，中国移动有望最短在一年内获得4G牌照。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动